DFA list

[awinter]

Let's play a game. You are the GM of the Twins- responsible for both the talent put on the field AND you are operating under the constraints of your owner's pocketbook. You're feeling the pressures of failed expectations and massive amounts of losing and you have to improve your 40 man roster to make your team more competitive without selling your future or wasting too much of your owners money.

 

Assuming no trade partners, who do you DFA and when? And who are some guys in AA & AAA that can take their spots?

[gunnarthor]

Frankly, outside of a few guys, the 40 man is pretty good.  You can drop Fein, Vargas or Dean and add an outside catcher or eventually Burdi but there isn't a lot to do other than wait.  You have a pretty decent group of potentially good OFers, all 25 or younger in Arcia, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Walker.  In two years, I would assume Sano is at first base.  But they need to play at get at-bats.  I'd probably push Molitor to have Rosario play a bit more CF but that's hard to do when he's hitting like crap and Santana is hot (and an obvious Molitor guy).  I do like Danny Santana as a super utility guy but I don't think he should be a consistent starter.  

 

If the Twins are out of it at the break (and that seems likely), they could look to move some guys like Nolasco, Milone, Plouffe.  Mauer can't be traded and I don't think they'd trade Dozier.  

 

(I'd also see if I could trade for Arizona's supp pick somehow)

 

The hope would be that you can upgrade the bullpen during the season by adding Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis.

 

By the end of the season I'd want to make sure Meyer got a real chance to start at the ML level.  I'd want a rotation of (healthy) Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Meyer and Hughes (unless his velocity is gone, in which case switch him with May in the pen).

 

I might also fire Molitor.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd DFA Fien, Tonkin. Vargas and Millone. I would attempt to trade Rosario and Dozier for whatever we can get (I think Rosario will never be more than a 4th outfielder with how much he chases, and I think Dozier is Dan Uggla waiting to happen.

I would send JR Murphy down to AAA and call up Stuart Turner. He and Suzuki and take turns until Suzuki is traded before the deadline. Then bring Murphy back up. Hopefully between the two of them, there can be sometime close to average production.

I would try and acquire Kevin Gausman from Baltimore. I think he has #1 or #2 starter upside somewhere in there, and I would give up a lot to get him in prospects. I don't know what that means as far as prospects, but probably anyone outside of Buxton/Sano/Kepler/Nick Gordon.

I'd recall Chagois, Burdi asap. I'd have Jorge Polanco play everyday at 2nd base. In another month I'd have Buxton up too and playing every day. The pitching staff will be thankful. I'd run out (mostly) Arcia in left, Buxton in center and Sano in right, until Plouffe is traded and then Kepler can (hopefully) take over in right.

I'd also hit Park higher in the order than 6th. I would lead Joe Mauer off, have Park hit 2nd and Sano hit 3rd. Dozier and Santana should not be getting the most at bats for this team, and that can partially explain their lack of offense.

[Rosterman]

You can send Rpsario down, but who replaces him.

 

You pretty much only have Dean (and maybe Rogers) as the flex guys on the 40-man right now. Of course, Vargas is also an expendable asset.

 

Your two most valuable trading chips are/were Gibson and Dozier. They both have to play to prove their worth.

 

Same with the big spenders in the rotation. Once they show life and any interest, I would listen to offers for Santana, Hughes and Nolasco.

 

I'm not sure what can be done wit Milone. He's the type of guy that team's will wait to see if the Twins play him out and he becomes a free agent, or if he is dumped and picked up for the minimum.

 

Of course, Plouffe is on-the-block. And if anyone calls about Suzuki.

 

I would sadly cut ties with Fien at this point. I would put guys like Pressly, Graham and Tonkin on short leashes. I would be hard-pressed to see anyone leaping out and grabbing them if they were DFAed.

 

Right now, Sano should be the third baeman, If he stays, we can always have Park at 1B. Kepler is also a 1B guy. Yes, Sano can move there, but any third baseprospects are still 4 years away from regular duty, I believe.

 

The outfield is crowded. Arcia should have staying power. Eventually Buxton returns. You need to find spcae for Kepler. And Walker be a bat at DH or RF.

 

That means Santana is probably expandable, at some point, since he is not your idea outfielder or infielder (Gordon WILL be the shortstop in another season).

 

But right now, aside from eating salary, the Twins don't have a lot of options. We have to get 40-60 days into the minor league season before you really start moving those guys around, and you cut loose some of the deadweight on the 40-man.

 

I will keep saying, the Twins team is a team of opportunity. If you want to play major league ball, now is the chance. Maybe the front office or the field staff is working against you and you talents, maybe not.

 

It will be a long season in Minnesota as we watch the Twins battle the Braves for the number one draft pick of 2017!

 

 

[Vanimal46]

The 2 DFA's that come to mind are Dean and Fien... They could be casualties once the trade deadline rolls around. 

If anything, I'd try to find a way to balance out the 40 man roster. There's not a ton of positional flexibility as we've seen already. When the super utility guy goes down, there's not a ton of realistic options to call up. 22 pitchers IMO is too many to have on a 40 man, and not all of these players are going to have a future with this team. 

A couple of players they need to figure out their future with the organization:

 

- JR Graham -  

- Taylor Rogers - is he the #9 org starter? Would they ever give him a chance to be a LOOGY? 
- Ryan O'Rourke - could Melotakis or Rogers take over his role in the pen?

[alarp33]

 

A couple of players they need to figure out their future with the organization:

 

- JR Graham -  

- Taylor Rogers - is he the #9 org starter? Would they ever give him a chance to be a LOOGY? 
- Ryan O'Rourke - could Melotakis or Rogers take over his role in the pen?

 

I think you could add Vargas to this list.  Is there really a need to protect him at this point? 

[Vanimal46]

 

I think you could add Vargas to this list.  Is there really a need to protect him at this point? 

If Park continues to prove that he belongs, probably not. It doesn't look like there will ever be a clear path for Vargas at 1B or DH, since there's 1 more year on Mauer's contract, Park, and assuming that Sano's eventually ending up at 1B in 2018. 

EDIT: Correction - 2 years left on Mauer's contract

[bluechipper]

Pat Dean is the obvious choice, and hopefully JT Chargois keeps pitching well and gets some time with the Twins sometime this year.

 

Also, Kennys Vargas just isn't a good enough hitter to be a DH and be kept on the 40 man.

[diehardtwinsfan]

those 40 man decisions won't get any easier either.  I think Ryan is going to have to shed some guys on the 40 man this year at some point, or risk loosing some potentially decent prospects.  He'd be wise to make those decisions sooner than later.

[nicksaviking]

I like Vargas and would be inclined to keep him, but even if Mauer weren't part of the equation in two years, Park, Sano and Arcia are all candidates for 1B/DH. He's redundant, besides, he probably only has to clear waivers for half the teams, would an NL team actually stash a DH who isn't currently hitting on their 40-man?

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

those 40 man decisions won't get any easier either.  I think Ryan is going to have to shed some guys on the 40 man this year at some point, or risk loosing some potentially decent prospects.  He'd be wise to make those decisions sooner than later.

 

And insist on 2-for-1 trades, where in the Twins are the team receiving the fewer players back in return.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There are vey few players near an MLB promotion that aren't already on the 40-man roster.  Maybe Burdi, but he is still in AA and has been slowed by health concerns.  Maybe a catcher, probably Centeno, so they can get Murphy everyday reps in AAA.

 

Otherwise, most everybody who could get promoted to MLB this year is already on the 40-man.

 

So they don't really need the 40-man space.  A willingness to eventually cut fringe guys like Vargas and Dean is all the flexibility they need right now.

[AWOLNATION_11]

I would suspect that any near term 40-man needs would start with Perkins to the 60-day DL.

[bluechipper]

 

There are vey few players near an MLB promotion that aren't already on the 40-man roster.  Maybe Burdi, but he is still in AA and has been slowed by health concerns.  Maybe a catcher, probably Centeno, so they can get Murphy everyday reps in AAA.

 

Otherwise, most everybody who could get promoted to MLB this year is already on the 40-man.

 

So they don't really need the 40-man space.  A willingness to eventually cut fringe guys like Vargas and Dean is all the flexibility they need right now.

Edit: Forgot JT Chargois is already on the 40 man

[bluechipper]

 

I like Vargas and would be inclined to keep him, but even if Mauer weren't part of the equation in two years, Park, Sano and Arcia are all candidates for 1B/DH. He's redundant, besides, he probably only has to clear waivers for half the teams, would an NL team actually stash a DH who isn't currently hitting on their 40-man?

I'd assume there is very little chance that any team would claim Vargas. A DH only player needs to be a better hitter than Vargas is to be kept on a 40 man roster.

[gunnarthor]

Vargas is off to a pretty slow start in AAA and was never a major prospect.  He was a nice lottery ticket but it probably didn't work out.  My guess is that he's in Japan or Korea next year.

[alarp33]

 

Vargas is off to a pretty slow start in AAA and was never a major prospect.  He was a nice lottery ticket but it probably didn't work out.  My guess is that he's in Japan or Korea next year.

 

I think that is a good prediction, and a good spot for Vargas.  I don't think anyone who watched him try to hit Major League pitching last year would claim him if outrighted by the Twins.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There are vey few players near an MLB promotion that aren't already on the 40-man roster.  Maybe Burdi, but he is still in AA and has been slowed by health concerns.  Maybe a catcher, probably Centeno, so they can get Murphy everyday reps in AAA.

 

Otherwise, most everybody who could get promoted to MLB this year is already on the 40-man.

 

So they don't really need the 40-man space.  A willingness to eventually cut fringe guys like Vargas and Dean is all the flexibility they need right now.

 

The issue isn't now as much as this offseason, when a new group of players becomes eligible and must be added or else potentially lost via the Rule V draft. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

And insist on 2-for-1 trades, where in the Twins are the team receiving the fewer players back in return.

 

This works up to a point, but you have to have someone who has an interest in a guy like (say Vargas) to make that work.  Perhaps they can flip redundant 40 man pieces such as Kennys for a prospect similar to what Kennys was prior to his 40 man, but to be fair, most teams don't have an incentive to trade a guy like that away. 

 

Deadline selling I suspect will help some of it.  Fein can be traded or DFAd at that point, and I have to think Dean could get the DFA as well.  Milone should be able to be given a new home.  If Nolasco keeps pitching well, he might find himself somewhere else also.   Plouffe is another obvious one, but I'm not sure what he's going to get at this point.  I'd probably insist on non-40 man options for all of those guys, which means you're targeting guys in the lower minors.   That's probably the easiest way to solve the problem, but it's going to be a problem if Ryan doesn't do something. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

On this list that should have already been DFA's. Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin, Kennys Vargas, Pat Dean. I might even consider releasing Tommy Milone.

These are the easy cuts, only Fien from that group as a chance to get claimed off waivers.

Murphy should be demoted to AAA and Centeno brought up to compete with Suzuki for starting at catcher as the hitting from the catching spot has been beyond abysmal.

I would option both Rosario and Murphy to AAA and play them every day. Rosario and Murphy both need at bats and Rosario needs to learn some plate discipline and patience.

 

I don't quite understand the Tonkin hate right now.  He's actually doing quite well in the majors. 

[bluechipper]

 

I don't quite understand the Tonkin hate right now.  He's actually doing quite well in the majors. 

I was just going to comment on that. A 1.26 ERA with 10 K/9 right now. I was really down on him towards the beginning of spring training, but he's looked pretty good so far.

[DJL44]

The list clearly begins with Casey Fien. After that I'd say Vargas since AAA DH with 20HR power are a dime a dozen and lefthanded pitchers, even low wattage ones like Dean, are more valuable.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

This works up to a point, but you have to have someone who has an interest in a guy like (say Vargas) to make that work.  Perhaps they can flip redundant 40 man pieces such as Kennys for a prospect similar to what Kennys was prior to his 40 man, but to be fair, most teams don't have an incentive to trade a guy like that away. 

 

Deadline selling I suspect will help some of it.  Fein can be traded or DFAd at that point, and I have to think Dean could get the DFA as well.  Milone should be able to be given a new home.  If Nolasco keeps pitching well, he might find himself somewhere else also.   Plouffe is another obvious one, but I'm not sure what he's going to get at this point.  I'd probably insist on non-40 man options for all of those guys, which means you're targeting guys in the lower minors.   That's probably the easiest way to solve the problem, but it's going to be a problem if Ryan doesn't do something. 

With how this season is going, that would be my preference to acquire high upside low minors players. If this team was contending, I think they could ease the 40 man logjam concerns going forward by packaging a few of them for immediate MLB contributors.. 

[James]

 

I was just going to comment on that. A 1.26 ERA with 10 K/9 right now. I was really down on him towards the beginning of spring training, but he's looked pretty good so far.

Tonkin's ERA is low because all the runs are being charged to other pitchers.  He has allowed 86% (6 out of 7) of inherited runners to score and 60% of the hits he has given up this year have gone for extra bases.  

 

I think the ERA will end up getting inflated pretty soon.  

[Danchat]

 

Tonkin's ERA is low because all the runs are being charged to other pitchers.  He has allowed 86% (6 out of 7) of inherited runners to score and 60% of the hits he has given up this year have gone for extra bases.  

 

I think the ERA will end up getting inflated pretty soon.  

Yeah, Tonkin's results have been mixed in my mind. He's had some good innings and some poor ones. You can't just look at ERA to determine how a reliever is doing.

 

I think Tonkin's spot is still safe, though. Fien should be first to go.

[Vanimal46]

 

Tonkin's ERA is low because all the runs are being charged to other pitchers.  He has allowed 86% (6 out of 7) of inherited runners to score and 60% of the hits he has given up this year have gone for extra bases.  

 

I think the ERA will end up getting inflated pretty soon.  

I was worried the team wouldn't be able to find a Blaine Boyer clone, but it looks like we found one! 

[bluechipper]

 

Tonkin's ERA is low because all the runs are being charged to other pitchers.  He has allowed 86% (6 out of 7) of inherited runners to score and 60% of the hits he has given up this year have gone for extra bases.  

 

I think the ERA will end up getting inflated pretty soon.  

The inherited runners stat can be flukey. Also, 6.3 H/9. That's pretty good. It's not like we're expecting Tonkin to become a setup man or anything like that. He's a middle reliever who has shown pretty good control throughout the minors, and he can strike guys out. I'm encouraged by his season so far.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The issue isn't now as much as this offseason, when a new group of players becomes eligible and must be added or else potentially lost via the Rule V draft. 

That's a long ways away.  A lot will sort itself out.  Jepsen will be a free agent, hopefully Suzuki will be too.  Milone, Fien, and Nunez might easily be priced out of their roles by arbitration raises.  Arcia too if he doesn't play his way into a more important role in the coming months.  In addition to Dean and Vargas, guys like Graham, O'Rourke, maybe even Rogers and Walker could all be pretty easy drops by then.

 

Who really needs to be added this winter?  The once-definitive org chart here at Twins Daily is sadly way out of date (and missing some key names now).

[James]

 

The inherited runners stat can be flukey. Also, 6.3 H/9. That's pretty good. It's not like we're expecting Tonkin to become a setup man or anything like that. He's a middle reliever who has shown pretty good control throughout the minors, and he can strike guys out. I'm encouraged by his season so far.

I agree that it can be fluky.  I expect that his inherited runner scoring % will come down too. 

 

Fien would be on my DFA list before Tonkin, but that doesn't mean Tonkin is setting the world on fire.  Most of the bullpen needs to be replaced.  

[Rosterman]

Joe Beimel is looking for a job.

 

Seriously, there has to be some major roster fallout, some trades for low level prospects, with eyes on who will also be on the roster in 2017 (and who will not).

 

Sadly, most of the names mentioned from Fien to Milone to Vargas to Dean would probably not be claimed and the players would become a free agent and the Twins would be on tap for all but the MLB minimum of the salaries. 

 

A player like Vargas may/may not have the opportunity to refuse AAA assignment. Which is probably why the Twins were hoping to flip him abroad during the winter (similar to what they did with Albers and Kris Johnson and Colabello). You egt something back.

 

But the rebuilding has started, wrapped around a crop of veteran starting pitchers.

 

I was there was more guys in the minors to flip with those in the majors...like catcher!