Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm going to be a Granite contrarian. (I know I'm not the only one on this board.)

 

Pitchers in the big leagues won't let Granite get away with what he's getting away with in the majors. He would see his walk rate plummet, and the balls he hit will be hit to better defenders. I think we're seeing in Polanco what happens to a guy who can't hit the ball hard. Polanco is still very patient, he's still taking walks, he still has a really good contact skill. But it's not working. He can't hit it hard. 

 

And the thing is, he still hits it a lot harder than Granite. Jorge Polanco's major league slugging is .390 for his career. That's bad. Zack Granite's career minor league slugging number is .370. That's abysmal. And let's not forget - Zack Granite is older than Jorge Polanco.

 

Guys, this isn't gonna work. Let's pump the brakes here. Granite is a fourth or fifth outfielder at best.

 

Concur. I don't think he's anything more than a reserve OF in the majors getting ~250 PAs a season. Anything more and they'll be looking at another hole to fill on the roster. 

[amjgt]

If a guy walks a lot, we say it isn't sustainable and if he doesn't walk much, we say he's got a bad eye.

 

Having said that, Granite isn't even close to relying on walks. His OBP is only 53 points higher than his average. If anything he doesn't walk enough.

[amjgt]

Glad you guys weren't running things when a 25yo Dozier was slapping his way to a sub-700 OPS in AAA

[70charger]

 

Glad you guys weren't running things when a 25yo Dozier was slapping his way to a sub-700 OPS in AAA

 

Except that Dozier only played 48 games there after being demoralized and demoted from the Twins. Between A and AA, from which he was promoted directly to the majors, his OPS was about .900. If Zack Granite ever sustains a .900 OPS, fine, we'll talk.

 

Look, I'm all about trajectory. If he's turned a corner and this is the beginning of something big, then wonderful! But I need more than a month or two as proof, especially when his BABIP is near 60 points higher than his career mark.

[70charger]

 

If a guy walks a lot, we say it isn't sustainable and if he doesn't walk much, we say he's got a bad eye.

Having said that, Granite isn't even close to relying on walks. His OBP is only 53 points higher than his average. If anything he doesn't walk enough.

 

Also, I never said that he relies on walks. I said he could take a walk, and that that's a good thing. But leave that aside completely if you want. It's not central to the point.

 

My focus is on what he can't do, which is hit the ball hard. If you can refute that, I'm listening.

[nicksaviking]

If a guy walks a lot, we say it isn't sustainable and if he doesn't walk much, we say he's got a bad eye.

Having said that, Granite isn't even close to relying on walks. His OBP is only 53 points higher than his average. If anything he doesn't walk enough.

Granite strikes me as one of those players who everyone will like right away but then loses favor after an extended slump reveals he's a one trick pony. Slap hitting singles players are no longer en vogue.

 

However the trend in baseball these days is to revamp one's swing to get lift. I don't think any of us know if he's amenable to a different approach should he get an earful from Jason Castro. Or if he's physically capable of a new approach. My money is on that he wouldn't or couldn't change but who knows.

[amjgt]

He homered today!

[70charger]

He homered today!

Turning the corner.

[Mike Sixel]

same guy, copy and paste question (I hate that):

 

Aaron
1:07 Question re: Berrios:

Whiffs are largely coming from the four seam fastball, while the secondary pitches (curve and change) are producing below average whiffs. You selling -- relative to current YTD production and in-year valuation -- performance as unsustainable?

 

Eno Sarris
1:08 Curve is getting 15% whiffs compared to 11% average. You're right that the four-seamer is the most impressive there, but he's at least at two pitch guy and the change gets a ton of GB. Like a Luis Severino.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eno-sarris-baseball-chat-62217/

[amjgt]

Jim Callis on some post-super2 call up options:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/237917070/13-potential-post-super-two-callups/

 

Nick Gordon, SS, Twins (No. 42)
Minnesota is a surprise contender despite getting little offense out of Jorge Polanco. While Gordon has yet to play above Double-A, he's batting .315/.376/.504 and wouldn't be daunted by skipping a level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Jim Callis on some post-super2 call up options:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/237917070/13-potential-post-super-two-callups/

 

Nick Gordon, SS, Twins (No. 42)
Minnesota is a surprise contender despite getting little offense out of Jorge Polanco. While Gordon has yet to play above Double-A, he's batting .315/.376/.504 and wouldn't be daunted by skipping a level.

Boy, I just don't see it. Gordon isn't on the 40 man, is still 21 years old, and this is his breakout season. I'd want to see some Rochester time before jumping to Minnesota.

 

And then there's the need issue as well. Polanco is scuffling but he's not an embarrassment. He has no options so he'd be riding the pine.

 

I'd much rather see the Twins jump the ladder with Romero or Gonsalves than Gordon. I see a fair amount of downside in a Gordon promotion and not much upside.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Boy, I just don't see it. Gordon isn't on the 40 man, is still 21 years old, and this is his breakout season. I'd want to see some Rochester time before jumping to Minnesota.

 

And then there's the need issue as well. Polanco is scuffling but he's not an embarrassment. He has no options so he'd be riding the pine.

 

I'd much rather see the Twins jump the ladder with Romero or Gonsalves than Gordon. I see a fair amount of downside in a Gordon promotion and not much upside.

 

concur. totally. 100%.

[drjim]

 

Boy, I just don't see it. Gordon isn't on the 40 man, is still 21 years old, and this is his breakout season. I'd want to see some Rochester time before jumping to Minnesota.

 

And then there's the need issue as well. Polanco is scuffling but he's not an embarrassment. He has no options so he'd be riding the pine.

 

I'd much rather see the Twins jump the ladder with Romero or Gonsalves than Gordon. I see a fair amount of downside in a Gordon promotion and not much upside.

 

I would agree, unless there's a trade. Otherwise he has a small chance at a September call up, but much more likely not.

[Mike Sixel]

Ron
2:22 Could you see Gordon up with the Twins in September and either Polanco or Dozier traded at the deadline? Thanks!

 

Keith Law
2:22 Gordon, no, zero reason for them to do that. Dozier, maybe, but only if they get a sizable return, I think. Again, no real push for them to do so.

[nicksaviking]

 

Boy, I just don't see it. Gordon isn't on the 40 man, is still 21 years old, and this is his breakout season. I'd want to see some Rochester time before jumping to Minnesota.

 

And then there's the need issue as well. Polanco is scuffling but he's not an embarrassment. He has no options so he'd be riding the pine.

 

I'd much rather see the Twins jump the ladder with Romero or Gonsalves than Gordon. I see a fair amount of downside in a Gordon promotion and not much upside.

 

I agree, pitchers should be able to jump easier than batters.

 

And even if Polanco is scuffling, Escobar isn't. Escobar is doing the opposite of scuffling.

 

Also, Polanco, Adrianza and Escobar are all out of options, so unless they carry four SS, calling up Gordon means cutting the cord on a decent player way too early.

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton
10:47 Giving up on me yet?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:48 86 wRC+ over the last two months, with very good defense and baserunning
Nothing wrong with being an AL and slightly more powerful Billy Hamilton

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-62317/

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Buxton
10:47 Giving up on me yet?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:48 86 wRC+ over the last two months, with very good defense and baserunning
Nothing wrong with being an AL and slightly more powerful Billy Hamilton

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-62317/

It's almost as if people believe Buxton is 27 years old or something.

 

Yeah, he's a disappointment thus far but come on, the kid is still just 23 years old.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's almost as if people believe Buxton is 27 years old or something.

 

Yeah, he's a disappointment thus far but come on, the kid is still just 23 years old.

Correct. People talk about how historically rare it is for someone to start their mlb career as bad as he did, and become an offensive weapon.

That's true, but I also wonder how historically rare it is for someone to be a top 5 pick, destroy milb pitching at every level, and not at least be an average hitter in the big leagues?

That has to be just as unlikely, right?

I've never bailed on Buxton through any of these struggles. I'm going down with the ship. I've always thought his floor was Torii Hunter and I still believe that.

[drivlikejehu]

I'm in the same camp, I think Buxton is an unusual player in various respects and that, over time, he will address his most significant weaknesses at the plate. 

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/in-celebration-of-the-brewers-and-twins/

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Minnesota (Profile)
Level: Rookie   Age: 18   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 4 K

 

 

Notes
Well built and owner of god-like arm acceleration, Graterol sits 93-98 and throws are tight, short-breaking slider in the 84-88 mph range. At times, his fastball lacks plane and his delivery lacks fluidity, but it’s pretty easy to dream on Graterol as a back-end bullpen arm even if those issues are never solved.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-627/

 

[Thrylos]

 

Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Minnesota (Profile)
Level: Rookie   Age: 18   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 4 K

 

 

Notes
Well built and owner of god-like arm acceleration, Graterol sits 93-98 and throws are tight, short-breaking slider in the 84-88 mph range. At times, his fastball lacks plane and his delivery lacks fluidity, but it’s pretty easy to dream on Graterol as a back-end bullpen arm even if those issues are never solved.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-627/

 

Pending further review down the road, Graterol is a starter with top of the rotation potential...

 

[Mike Sixel]

Cole
12:44 Do the Twins have a solution to their bullpen woes for the 2017 season in the minors? If so, who?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:48 They've drafted plenty of arm strength relief prospects (Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, Michael Cederoth) but those guys have had issues staying healthy or just being effective. Relief prospects are volatile so it's hard to say if internal help is coming. I think Hildenberger, Melotakis and Fernando Romero could help, perhaps Turley's role is in the bullpen. They, like everyone else, will figure out a way to make 'pen arms from scratch.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-627/

[Mike Sixel]

quotes from Jack Morris, Brandon Kintzler, Jason Castro and Craig Breslow in this article about mound visits:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/players-view-are-mound-visits-really-an-issue/

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Cole
12:44 Do the Twins have a solution to their bullpen woes for the 2017 season in the minors? If so, who?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:48 They've drafted plenty of arm strength relief prospects (Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, Michael Cederoth) but those guys have had issues staying healthy or just being effective. Relief prospects are volatile so it's hard to say if internal help is coming. I think Hildenberger, Melotakis and Fernando Romero could help, perhaps Turley's role is in the bullpen. They, like everyone else, will figure out a way to make 'pen arms from scratch.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-627/

This tells you how seriously one should take national sports people regarding the Twins' farm system...

[Mike Sixel]

 

This tells you how seriously one should take national sports people regarding the Twins' farm system...

 

true, I expect them to know every move from the rookie leagues all the way to AAA for all 30 teams, plus the pioneer league, and also all the HS players. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

This tells you how seriously one should take national sports people regarding the Twins' farm system...

The Twins did draft Cederoth, the author doesn't say anything about whether he is still here. And Melotakis is still in our org, although he is unlikely to help. I wouldn't hold it against the author for missing the hot news item that was the Melotakis DFA. Probably got lost in the media coverage of the Wimmers DFA and the Gee recall.

[Mike Sixel]

today"

 

Zack Granite, CF, Minnesota (Profile)
Level: Triple-A  Age: 24   Org Rank: 12   Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-5

 

Notes
Granite missed April with an oblique strain. He’s been in Rochester since May 4th and has decimated the International League, hitting .371/.423/.516 in 54 games. Scouts don’t expect him to do that much damage with the bat in the majors, as Granite really only generates power when he’s able to drop the bat head and golf something down the right-field line. Otherwise, he’s slashing grounders and hitting little flares over the heads of infielders and sprinting to first with his plus-plus speed. He does have some bat control and is hard to strike out, so there’s a chance he puts the ball in play enough to be some kind of everyday player. At the very least, he looks like a luxury fourth outfielder.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-628/

[Vanimal46]

Thad Levine interview on MLB.com discussing the decisions they have to make at the trade deadline.

 

Per the article:

 

 

 

Falvey, Levine and their staff appreciate being in contention, and while they don't want to turn a blind eye to that, they won't throw caution to the wind and abandon their long-term vision: to build a sustainable championship-caliber team that can win on an annual basis.

"In order to accomplish that, we maybe started the year not anticipating being a clear buyer at the Deadline," Levine said. "I don't think we feel that's changed dramatically, other than maybe adding his one qualifier: We're probably not going to be inclined to spend lavishly on short-term assets, but we would be very open to spending aggressively on assets that we could use to propel our team forward this year and for years to come.

"I think it leaves us contemplating buying, and that's how the season has impacted our decision-making."

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thad Levine interview on MLB.com discussing the decisions they have to make at the trade deadline.

 

Per the article:

In my opinion, that's just about the perfect answer to that question.

 

If the team wants to pursue someone like Sonny Gray (just an example), good on them. If they want to give up someone like Gonsalves for a three month rental, not so good on them. The team isn't at that point.