Forbes: Berrios can save Twins season

[jokin]

 

 

I believe he has an option left. As gunnarthor just mentioned he's gotten off to bad starts before and they gave him a long leash to figure it out. Plus, wouldn't he throw a fit if he were to get demoted? Considering he's due for arbitration this upcoming off-season. 

 

The Twins might love to take Gibson's current numbers to an arbitration case.

[tobi0040]

 

So you're saying they'll give Gibson up to 10-15 more starts if his production stays at the current level...? Something is very wrong with him at the moment.

 

I remember Gibson being the #1 or #2 guy on the which guys should be extended list.  It seemed like a majority of posters were willing to give Gibson a 4-5 year extension, even though he is controlled for several years.

 

The premature extension for guys with a lower ceiling is almost never a good idea.

[Vanimal46]

 

I remember Gibson being the #1 or #2 guy on the which guys should be extended list.  It seemed like a majority of posters were willing to give Gibson a 4-5 year extension, even though he is controlled for several years.

 

The premature extension for guys with a lower ceiling is almost never a good idea.

Good memory. He was the #1 candidate for the potential extension series. You haven't changed your stance. I was one who agreed the extension looked good at the time... By the way, have you ever had the privilege of eating crow before? The taste is starting to grow on me!

[Blake]

 

Good memory. He was the #1 candidate for the potential extension series. You haven't changed your stance. I was one who agreed the extension looked good at the time... By the way, have you ever had the privilege of eating crow before? The taste is starting to grow on me!

You and I will be going through a flock of crows at the rate the Twins are failing. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Everyone is jumping on the seemingly obvious choice of Milone, but hasn't Gibson already made himself (at least) temporarily expendable out of the rotation???:

Gibson actually has two option years left.  But he's got a longer leash than Milone -- Gibson hasn't missed a turn in our rotation in over two years, and was arguably our most effective starter last year.

 

You'll get no argument from me if you want Gibson to feel some pressure soon too, but realistically and barring injury, the only potential opening in the rotation right now is Milone's spot.

[gunnarthor]

 

So you're saying they'll give Gibson up to 10-15 more starts if his production stays at the current level...? Something is very wrong with him at the moment.

He had a 3.57 era after his third start.  The season is too young to worry about SSS when you have an established track record.  He got bombed by the Nats.  It happens.  He won't get to put up a lot of 3ip, 7ER starts but he won't.  He's a better pitcher than that.  Worst case would be something like 15 starts, 5.10 era, bad k/bb numbers and then a demotion to the pen.  I don't think that happens but I do think, unless his ERA shoots up to 7.00 or something, they'd give him 15 starts before moving him to the pen.   

[jokin]

 

Gibson actually has two option years left.  But he's got a longer leash than Milone -- Gibson hasn't missed a turn in our rotation in over two years, and was arguably our most effective starter last year.

 

You'll get no argument from me if you want Gibson to feel some pressure soon too, but realistically and barring injury, the only potential opening in the rotation right now is Milone's spot.

 

6.10 ERA is OK for now, but 7.00 ERA will clinch it? I've gotta think, if he gets similar results vs. the Tigers this weekend as he had vs. the Nats, that the Twins have to consider the alternatives, their bullpen is already nearing the brink of destruction.

 

BTW, speaking on Gibson "feeling some pressure", did you catch the subtle and incessant digs on Gibson the last two innings of yesterday's game by Bert? ie, Why hadn't Gibson demanded to get up in the bullpen and then step into the breach for the struggling Tonkin?

 

[tobi0040]

 

Good memory. He was the #1 candidate for the potential extension series. You haven't changed your stance. I was one who agreed the extension looked good at the time... By the way, have you ever had the privilege of eating crow before? The taste is starting to grow on me!

 

Unfortunately, myself and crow have gotten to know each other really well. 

 

The biggest example of that would be Brian Dozier.  Seth and I had a back and forth once where I believe I said he will never have an OPS over .720 or something like that.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

BTW, speaking on Gibson "feeling some pressure", did you catch the subtle and incessant digs on Gibson the last two innings of yesterday's game by Bert? ie, Why hadn't Gibson demanded to get up in the bullpen and then step into the breach for the struggling Tonkin?

Yeah, I noticed that, too.  And he's always calling him Lohse.  Maybe there is some behind the scenes stuff about Gibson that we don't know.  But right now, I think he's considered a big part of the Twins future rotation so I don't think they'll demote him.  But he does have to pitch better (and I think he will).

[Blake]

When I looked at the numbers in Streak Analyzer, teams that start 0-9 do not fair well. Only 1 out of 21 teams, that started the season 0-9, ended the season above 500, the 1983 Houston Astros. (85-77) 

 

Since 2000, Detroit twice started off 0-9. (2002 and 2003) Detroit went 55-106 and 43-119, respectively.

 

I know the front office cannot write off the season and they at least need to say all the right cliches, but the knowledgeable fans on this site shouldn't expect a whole lot from this team.

 

My point to the whole thing is this: What does the front office do at this point? The season, more than likely, is beyond saving. 

 

Does the front office just start moving players and start a sweeping youth movement?

 

Seriously, this has to be a tough spot. While I think a serious housecleaning is in order, where does one start?

[Platoon]

I hate to be a downer, but the young guys need to learn how to handle struggling before they will get consistent success. This is the price they needed to pay when they didn't play more of the young guys last September, and earlier. I understand the reasoning, this isn't revisionist history, it was just clear last year that they were sacrificing development for their chance at making the playoffs. However at some point they have to accept that developing these guys and contending are highly unlikely to occur at the same time. Rebuilding isn't supposed to be pain-free, this was the contract we entered into when they decided the best path to contention was to mostly rely on rebuilding the system.

 

Bite the bullet, purge the vets by any means necessary and make sure all the young guys are starting every day either at the MLB or AAA if they need a remedial adjustment. This team is still functioning in an old-school mentality if they actually think these vets are the key to winning a few extra games this year anyway, if they paid any kind of attention last year, they'd see that the vets got in the way and youngsters and their superior physical abilities were the better players anyway.

 

The worst thing that could happen for this club is a quasi-run where they may look like they could sniff .500, causing the team to double down on the vets despite no empirical evidence, just archaic conventional wisdom that experience matters. I do NOT want to do this again next year, rip the band-aid off now and get it over with.

Thank you! Last May should go down as one of the worst months in Twins history. Some will argue that no one can foresee how all that youth wil turn out, which is true. But one can foresee how the current veterans will, just look back! Sadly, like Mike, I feel there is little chance of anything significant happening. Patience is only a virtue when you have something to look forward to.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Even though O'Rourke threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings yesterday? If your assertion is that O'Rourke is better suited to a Loogy role, I do agree.

 

Yeah. 15 inning games have a way of getting guys out of their comfort zones - O'Rourke really isn't a long inning guy. Milone would be kind of perfect for the role since the Twins all-righty lineup would bring out more left-handed lineups. A left-handed long reliever has a good shot for favorable matchups and then Milone can be stretched out for spot starts and if someone hits the DL. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

My point to the whole thing is this: What does the front office do at this point? The season, more than likely, is beyond saving. 

 

This front office has proven its ineptitude since 1994.  This team is beyond saving with this front office.  The ball is in Pohlad's court...

 

Ryan is so out of touch, that his next move will be to get Murphy (and his .562 AAA OPS) up to the Cities as a "fix".

[Shane Wahl]

I have a hard time believing that the W-L total is going to be markedly different between going full youth movement and relying on older players like Fien, Milone (not that old, but still), Murphy, etc. And playing the young guys is going to let them learn better than anything else at this point (Berrios, Burdi, Chargois, and Polanco up, and Buxton and Rosario staying up).

[Guest]

The bullpen needs help. Perkins serves pancakes, Jepsen looks like he lost a sprocket, and May simply looks lost (total guess: he seems like a sensitive guy and, after getting the runaround in spring training, his head isn't completely in it). If you had told me a few weeks ago that the most reliable members of the pen would be Abad, O'Rourke and Pressly, I would have responded "April Fools!"

 

Berrios to the rotation, Hughes to closer.

 

Deal with Mayday Milone later. Keep your fingers crossed that (1) Duffey is healthy and (2) Meyer keeps pitching well. If that occurs, Milone can be a throw-in to a Plouffe trade, a la Theo Epstein looking ahead and seeing that he had an upcoming third baseman in the minors named Bryant and clearing the position by throwing in Dan Straily to trade the adequate Jose Valbuena, who had been playing that position (instead of making his young future star adjust to the majors while learning a completely new position).

 

Target EOY rotation: Berrios, Meyer, Duffey, Santana, Gibson/Nolasco.

[Blake]

Fire Molitor and bring up Doug Mientkiewicz to manage. Everyone would tune in just in the hope something like this would happen: http://deadspin.com/minor-league-manager-doug-mientkiewicz-started-a-huge-b-1166890514

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Fire Molitor and bring up Doug Mientkiewicz to manage. 

Starting to lean this way more and more. Mientkiewicz is a critical component to the youth movement.

 

Not looking forward to typing Mientkiewicz on regular basis, however.

[Blake]

 

Starting to lean this way more and more. Mientkiewicz is a critical component to the youth movement.

 

Not looking forward to typing Mientkiewicz on regular basis, however.

Notepad>copy and paste>save for future use.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When I looked at the numbers in Streak Analyzer, teams that start 0-9 do not fair well. Only 1 out of 21 teams, that started the season 0-9, ended the season above 500, the 1983 Houston Astros. (85-77) 

An update: a quick glance at B-Ref shows the following 23 teams since 2000 starting 5-14 or worse in their first 19 games:

 

2015 MIL
2014 HOU, ARI
2013 HOU, SDP, MIA
2012 MIN, KCR, SDP
2011 none
2010 BAL
2009 WAS
2008 WAS
2007 none
2006 PIT, FLA, KCR
2005 KCR
2004 MON
2003 DET
2002 DET, TEX
2001 DET, TBD
2000 DET

 

 

Note the regular presence of an AL Central team from 2001-2006.

 

Average finish among this group was 65 wins.  Best finish was 2000 Detroit with 79 wins.  2006 Marlins reached 78 wins, and the 2012-2013 Padres both got to 76.  The remaining 20 teams all lost 90+ games (72 or fewer wins).

 

EDIT: This was just for fun/trivia/curiosity.  Some of these teams started worse than 5-14, 5-14 isn't functionally that different than 6-13, etc.

[Danchat]

The Twins are calling up Meyer as a reliever, according to Mike Berardino. It looks like Berrios won't be coming up quite yet.

[Taildragger8791]

 

 

 

Target EOY rotation: Berrios, Meyer, Duffey, Santana, Gibson/Nolasco.

 

Heck, I'd like that to be the rotation by mid-June. I'd like to see May get some run too, as well as any young reliever or hitter that is ready to be tested and has potential to be on the next winning Twins team. This team as-constructed isn't going anywhere this year, and most of the veterans aren't going to be part of that next winning team. We're going to lose 90 games anyways, and we're seeing now how much young players struggle adjusting to the league. Bite the bullet and overlap those learning struggles and this 90-loss season so that next year has at least a chance of being a .500 team. If we go into next season with another crop of untested young players with less than 1/2 a season's experience then we're just going to repeat this April all over again.

[TwinsCD]

If the season starts in May then sure, he can certainly save it.  But unless Berrios can hit .320, move runners over reliably and get hits with the bases loaded, then he isn't saving anything.  And really, that's a slap in the face to the current starting staff.  If you throw out the April 9 game vs KC (Milone) and the April 22 game at Milwaukee (Gibson), the starters have done everything in their power to give this team victories.  The Twins swoon to start the season is solely on the bats and to think a pitcher is going to save this ongoing disaster of a season is silly.

[FormerMinnasotan]

While Berrios won't save the season for the Twins, it is important to bring Berrios up as soon as possible. Bringing Berrios now is not like bringing up Buxton last year. While Berrios has dominated every level of the minor leagues, Buxton has really only dominated A ball and A+ ball, and has been good but not great in AA and AAA.

[Blake]

 

An update: a quick glance at B-Ref shows the following 23 teams since 2000 starting 5-14 or worse in their first 19 games:

 

2015 MIL
2014 HOU, ARI
2013 HOU, SDP, MIA
2012 MIN, KCR, SDP
2011 none
2010 BAL
2009 WAS
2008 WAS
2007 none
2006 PIT, FLA, KCR
2005 KCR
2004 MON
2003 DET
2002 DET, TEX
2001 DET, TBD
2000 DET

 

 

Note the regular presence of an AL Central team from 2001-2006.

 

Average finish among this group was 65 wins.  Best finish was 2000 Detroit with 79 wins.  2006 Marlins reached 78 wins, and the 2012-2013 Padres both got to 76.  The remaining 20 teams all lost 90+ games (72 or fewer wins).

I thought about looking at this also, but the numbers from the 0-9 streak were discouraging enough.

[TheLeviathan]

Dougie M. is not a "youth movement" - as a manager he's stuck in a thinking pattern vastly out-dated.  At least in terms of strategy and respect for statistics.

[Guest]

 

The Twins are calling up Meyer as a reliever, according to Mike Berardino. It looks like Berrios won't be coming up quite yet.

Glad Meyer is getting a chance, but I don't quite get this. He's a starter, he's a reliever, he's a starter, he's a reliever. This is "Put your left foot in and shake it all about" player development.

 

As a starter, he has higher upside than anyone now in the rotation. Why do veterans get their positions locked in stone, especially if they complain to the media, but younger players with more upside than the veterans ever established get yanked back and forth? How do you build for the future? Seems like selling the future to salvage today ("Hey, let's have last year's AA MVP get 6 ABs a week!") History and eyeballs suggest that only a handful of people think this year's team has a chance to be a playoff success. One of them is Terry Ryan and another one thinks he can get a date with Lauren Holly. 

 

Also, this seems like another admission that the "draft good relievers" strategy hasn't been successful. As of today, Duffey has shown potential as a starter and Chargois has thrown 6 innings this year at AA that suggest he might become something, but better success would mean that you don't have to convert two of your best starter candidates (also Trevor Mays), neither of whom were drafted by the Twins (let's not get into the trades of starting center fielders again), into relievers to plug emergency holes.

[Vanimal46]

 

Dougie M. is not a "youth movement" - as a manager he's stuck in a thinking pattern vastly out-dated.  At least in terms of strategy and respect for statistics.

Yep.. Just once, look outside of the organization for a new voice. This organization is not going to erupt in flames by having someone outside of the country club come in and analyze what's going on there. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Dougie M. is not a "youth movement" - as a manager he's stuck in a thinking pattern vastly out-dated.  At least in terms of strategy and respect for statistics.

Honestly, I don't think that matters.  There are some reasons Dougie might not be a good manager but that's probably not one of them.  A manager's job (I think) it almost universally to keep the team together.  Look at Dusty in Washington, Leyland in Detroit, Bochy in SF.  All three have been criticized over the years about their level (or lack thereof) of embracing "new stats".  

 

In-game managing is massively overrated by us fans mostly b/c that's the only part of managing that we really get a sense of. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Honestly, I don't think that matters.  There are some reasons Dougie might not be a good manager but that's probably not one of them.  A manager's job (I think) it almost universally to keep the team together.  Look at Dusty in Washington, Leyland in Detroit, Bochy in SF.  All three have been criticized over the years about their level (or lack thereof) of embracing "new stats".  

 

In-game managing is massively overrated by us fans mostly b/c that's the only part of managing that we really get a sense of. 

 

Except he wasn't talking about all aspects of managing, he was specifically talking about the in game aspects........since we can't really judge MOST of the rest, right?

[Shaitan]

 

Glad Meyer is getting a chance, but I don't quite get this. He's a starter, he's a reliever, he's a starter, he's a reliever. This is "Put your left foot in and shake it all about" player development.

 

It's pretty common with pitchers. Plus, by starting in AAA he gets more innings. Changing positions to help the team is a part of the game, not some head game. That, and he's probably on an innings limit anyway, seeing that we was from 2012-2014 or whatever, before actually throwing fewer innings last season.

 

At this point, I just hope he improves his MLB stat line from last year.