Abad returns, Rogers optioned

[stringer bell]

Abad is back from bereavement and Rogers has been sent down. Apparently O'Rourke's one pitch on Sunday was more impressive than Rogers' two-thirds inning last week.

 

Actually, I guess what this means is that Molitor and Allen think they can utilize O'Rourke better (more of a true LOOGy) than Rogers, who would profile as someone who can go longer, perhaps even be a long man since he has always been a starter until this year. Both Rogers and O'Rourke have minor league splits that indicate they could be lefty specialists.

 

I'm going to speculate that Rogers will get more trips back and forth from AAA to the majors, especially if the Twins feel the need to have someone who can comfortably go longer than one inning in their bullpen.

 

 

[alarp33]

It's interesting that a team so determined to not get outside help for the bullpen, because of all the young, up and coming guys... is SO reluctant to actually use/ trust the "young guys".  

[Thrylos]

O'Rourke can strike out lefties (career MiLB split around 18 K/9 against lefties,)  Rogers not so much.

[HitInAPinch]

I hate the concept of a LOOGY.  Can only get the job done against a small fraction of the batters in baseball.  I think the Twins would be better served by using Tonkin more.  He looked very good and very aggressive in his last appearance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I hate the concept of a LOOGY.  Can only get the job done against a small fraction of the batters in baseball.  I think the Twins would be better served by using Tonkin more.  He looked very good and very aggressive in his last appearance.

I'm not fond of lefty-only guys either but it's hard to deny how useful they can be in specific circumstances. Given how left-handed bats tend to *really* struggle against same-handed pitching, it's a good thing to have a pitcher to get them out in late inning critical situations.

[ThejacKmp]

 

It's interesting that a team so determined to not get outside help for the bullpen, because of all the young, up and coming guys... is SO reluctant to actually use/ trust the "young guys".  

 

I mean, it's April 19th. If they're not promoting guys in May or June that's when we can start being upset. Complaining about it now is premature and a bit pessimistic. 

 

I've been encouraged to see Pressly and Tonkin getting some meaningful moments in games and think that's a good harbinger of things to come.

[alarp33]

 

O'Rourke can strike out lefties (career MiLB split around 18 K/9 against lefties,)  Rogers not so much.

 

Rogers has been a starter his whole career, no? 9 k/9 over the last couple of years as a starter I wouldn't say is "not so much".  We seem to give a bump to every other starter turned reliever, I'm not sure why Rogers wouldn't get that benefit of the doubt.  

[stringer bell]

A LOOGy is fine if the rest of the staff can support it. The Twins are going with "only" 12 on the staff. They have a pretty veteran rotation and they have six guys in the bullpen that really are best suited to pitch an inning each plus O'Rourke, best utilized by facing a lefty or two per game.

[ThejacKmp]

I am intrigued why O'Rourke stayed up and not Rogers since the Twins have more of a need for a long man than a LOOGY and Rogers is intriguing there. The Twins have four right handed starters and it's always nice to be able to bring in an opposite-handed long reliever - other teams have set their lineups to face a righty and that can help a lefty stem the bleeding and give the hitters a chance to make a game of it.

[alarp33]

 

I mean, it's April 19th. If they're not promoting guys in May or June that's when we can start being upset. Complaining about it now is premature and a bit pessimistic. 

 

I've been encouraged to see Pressly and Tonkin getting some meaningful moments in games and think that's a good harbinger of things to come.

 

I'm not worried about promotions right now. I'm referencing guys specifically who do come up, and get buried in the 'pen and clearly aren't "trusted".  

 

Tonkin the last couple years, Rogers in his week in the majors... I'm sure others can help me out with many other examples.  

 

They come off as extremely hesitant to use these guys in any meaningful role

[ThejacKmp]

 

I hate the concept of a LOOGY.  Can only get the job done against a small fraction of the batters in baseball.  I think the Twins would be better served by using Tonkin more.  He looked very good and very aggressive in his last appearance.

 

Agreed, especially because the other team can just pinch hit a righty and then O'Rourke is not in an ideal position.

 

That said, I don't think having Rogers or O'Rourke effects Tonkin. They fulfill different roles no matter what and if Tonkin keeps it up, he'll continue to get more chances.

[stringer bell]

 

I mean, it's April 19th. If they're not promoting guys in May or June that's when we can start being upset. Complaining about it now is premature and a bit pessimistic. 

 

I've been encouraged to see Pressly and Tonkin getting some meaningful moments in games and think that's a good harbinger of things to come.

Tonkin got "meaningful moments" only because the game went to extras. I recall a very similar situation last year for Graham, who pitched well in multiple innings against the Pirates in an extra-inning affair. Graham was not trusted until then, and never really earned the manager's trust after.

 

Tonkin is much less of a project and his success in AAA say something. I sure hope he turned a corner, but I'm going to have to be skeptical until he shows us more than one good performance in an extra-inning game.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm not worried about promotions right now. I'm referencing guys specifically who do come up, and get buried in the 'pen and clearly aren't "trusted".  

 

Tonkin the last couple years, Rogers in his week in the majors... I'm sure others can help me out with many other examples.  

 

They come off as extremely hesitant to use these guys in any meaningful role

 

I hate to give my parents credit for anything but eons ago when I was in high school, they always emphasized that trust was earned and not automatically granted. I don’t think it’s the worst policy to throw guys into low-leverage situations when they come up and then increase their responsibility as they show able to the task.

 

Tonkin consistently looked terrible in low leverage situations the past few years and he never earned that trust – why would you put a guy in high-leverage situations (in a contending season) when he can’t handle the low-leverage ones? This year, he has been given increasingly important opportunities and has excelled. I think it’s premature to assume that Molitor hasn’t noticed that or to think that Tonkin hasn’t earned himself new opportunities.

 

As to Taylor Rogers, I think it’s important to note that it isn’t like he pitched so well in the minors that they were forced to bring him up (and thus he should get a more prominent role). He was an injury replacement and as such, was the last man in the pen. The Twins were in tight games the entire week so it’s not like they were throwing May out there in a 7-2 game where Rogers would be better served getting a shot. He did well enough in his short opportunity to make the Twins confident they could use him again if and when they need to. That said, he was the last guy in the pen getting a week or two to taste the big leagues so not being used much isn’t a calamity.

 

The larger point is that the Twins have guys like Jepsen and May who have earned leeway and trust – they could be bad for a month and the Twins would stick with them. Guys like Fien and Abad have some past success but also have much shorter leashes. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Tonkin and Fien have switched roles in a few weeks if Fien continues to struggle and Tonkin keeps striking out the Mike Trouts of this world. And if Chargois or Burdi is ready at that point, Fien would be the one moving on and the new guy would be the one trying to earn that trust.

 

It’s a reasonable way to bring up young relievers and I don’t think Tonkin or Rogers highlight any issue – if anything, Tonkin developing perhaps highlights the benefits of bringing guys along slowly with increasing opportunity as it is earned.

[alarp33]

 

It’s a reasonable way to bring up young relievers and I don’t think Tonkin or Rogers highlight any issue – if anything, Tonkin developing perhaps highlights the benefits of bringing guys along slowly with increasing opportunity as it is earned.

 

I'll stick with my original point.  Fien stinks, has for awhile.  At some point if the only hope for a bad bullpen to improve is young guys, they are going to actually need to use/ trust them.  

 

Also, Tonkin was forced into action because of extra innings, and pitched well. Let's not act like it was the Twins saying "maybe its time to give this guy a real shot".  Fien pitched the 8th inning of that game vs the heart of the Angels order, and after walking Trout gave up a 400 foot flyout to Pujols.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Tonkin got "meaningful moments" only because the game went to extras. I recall a very similar situation last year for Graham, who pitched well in multiple innings against the Pirates in an extra-inning affair. Graham was not trusted until then, and never really earned the manager's trust after.

 

Tonkin is much less of a project and his success in AAA say something. I sure hope he turned a corner, but I'm going to have to be skeptical until he shows us more than one good performance in an extra-inning game.

 

Agreed on getting too excited about Tonkin from a small sample but man, what a sample. He's also always been a guy who didn't seem to be confident out there so hopefully this can trigger confidence.

 

Some of it is random opportunity but that's the way of life. Up until this week, the Twins had three late-inning guys who had earned their roles (May, Jepsen and Perkins) which meant that Tonkin was competing with Pressley, Fien and Abad for middle inning scraps. That's changed now as Tonkin has a golden opportunity.

 

That difference is striking when it comes to JR Graham. You were right that he did pitch well that game and that he did ten wait ten days to pitch again. That said, he was also less than a week removed from getting shelled for five runs in two innings, was a Rule V guy only on the roster to preserve the Twins rights to him and had not had much success all season. Thus, there was a larger body of work that came into effect that is different than Tonkin. Tonkin has proved himself in the minors, has the opportunity with Perkins on the DL/Fien struggling and has been good all year so I imagine he'll get more of a shot to prove it wasn't a fluke.

 

I guess we shall see.

 

P.S. I'm also very excited about Ryan Pressley. He has looked really solid thus far. Not as much of a back-of-the-pen guy as Tonkin could be with the K rate but he seems like a steady middle reliever. More Pressley, less Fien!

[ThejacKmp]

 

Tonkin got "meaningful moments" only because the game went to extras. I recall a very similar situation last year for Graham, who pitched well in multiple innings against the Pirates in an extra-inning affair. Graham was not trusted until then, and never really earned the manager's trust after.

 

Tonkin is much less of a project and his success in AAA say something. I sure hope he turned a corner, but I'm going to have to be skeptical until he shows us more than one good performance in an extra-inning game.

 

Agreed on getting too excited about Tonkin from a small sample but man, what a sample. He's also always been a guy who didn't seem to be confident out there so hopefully this can trigger confidence.

 

Some of it is random opportunity but that's the way of life. Up until this week, the Twins had three late-inning guys who had earned their roles (May, Jepsen and Perkins) which meant that Tonkin was competing with Pressley, Fien and Abad for middle inning scraps. That's changed now as Tonkin has a golden opportunity.

 

That difference is striking when it comes to JR Graham. You were right that he did pitch well that game and that he did ten wait ten days to pitch again. That said, he was also less than a week removed from getting shelled for five runs in two innings, was a Rule V guy only on the roster to preserve the Twins rights to him and had not had much success all season. Thus, there was a larger body of work that came into effect that is different than Tonkin. Tonkin has proved himself in the minors, has the opportunity with Perkins on the DL/Fien struggling and has been good all year so I imagine he'll get more of a shot to prove it wasn't a fluke.

 

I guess we shall see.

 

P.S. I'm also very excited about Ryan Pressley. He has looked really solid thus far. Not as much of a back-of-the-pen guy as Tonkin could be with the K rate but he seems like a steady middle reliever. More Pressley, less Fien!

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'll stick with my original point.  Fien stinks, has for awhile.  At some point if the only hope for a bad bullpen to improve is young guys, they are going to actually need to use/ trust them.  

 

Also, Tonkin was forced into action because of extra innings, and pitched well. Let's not act like it was the Twins saying "maybe its time to give this guy a real shot".  Fien pitched the 8th inning of that game vs the heart of the Angels order, and after walking Trout gave up a 400 foot flyout to Pujols.  

 

 

See what I replied to Stringer Bell below since it addressed some of this.

 

Opportunities are somewhat random but Tonkin took advantage and until we see the Twins ignore it, let's not assume it will happen. The Twins aren't going to drop Casey Fien overnight but the pendulum is moving. Fien does stink of late and he hasn't looked good this year or most of last year. He's on a reasonable one-year deal and if the Twins were willing to move on from Stauffer last year, I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to demote Fien from the late innings (and eventually drop him entirely if young guys in the minors look ready*). 

 

I guess I'm just unwilling to say that the Twins won't give Tonkin a chance til we see what they do.

 

* What are the odds that Fien is on the Twins June 1? August 1?  I'd go 60/40 on June 1 but 40/60 or lower on August 1. He's not the worst ever but the Twins will have better options and Fien always has a two week stinker in him. In years past the Twins didn't have amazing options to replace him during those times but that won't be true this year (knock on wood).

[USAFChief]

 

I hate the concept of a LOOGY.  Can only get the job done against a small fraction of the batters in baseball.  I think the Twins would be better served by using Tonkin more.  He looked very good and very aggressive in his last appearance.

The platoon advantage/disadvantage is a real thing though.  Always has been, probably always will be.

 

It'd be great to have a bullpen filled with guys who get RH and LH batters out equally well, but that's sorta like saying we should just fill the lineup with guys who hit .300 with walks and power.  Quite a bit easier said than done.

 

Unless/until that happens, accept reality...a lefty who is tough on opposing LH hitters (who do NOT comprise a "small fraction" of MLB hitters) is a valuable piece of a bullpen.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

Opportunities are somewhat random but Tonkin took advantage and until we see the Twins ignore it, let's not assume it will happen. 

 

I guess I'm just unwilling to say that the Twins won't give Tonkin a chance til we see what they do.

 

 

Again, my original point is the new, younger guys who have come up are not given opportunities.  

 

Tonkin has spent parts of 3 seasons now on the MLB roster. He is a prime example of what I'm talking about, I've seen they have never been willing to trust him

[ThejacKmp]

 

Again, my original point is the new, younger guys who have come up are not given opportunities.  

 

Tonkin has spent parts of 3 seasons now on the MLB roster. He is a prime example of what I'm talking about, I've seen they have never been willing to trust him

 

And again, my response that trust/opportunities are earned not given. Tonkin has yet to earn any trust in the majors, he was far worse than Stinky Ol' Fien every chance he got. Hopefully the combination of better results and a golden opportunity will change that this year but I can't blame the Twins for the way they've used Tonkin the last few years - he's just looked bad at the major league level. It takes some guys a little while - they showed some faith in him this year by not cutting him so clearly they always had some concept he had what it took if he could just put it together.

 

The Twins have regularly given young guys like Rosario, Buxton, Sano and Santana tons of opportunities. Unless this is only a bullpen thing, I don't see causation. The Twins have used young guys, they just don't give them an endless line to hang themselves with. Results = trust = opportunity. 

[alarp33]

 

And again, my response that trust/opportunities are earned not given. Tonkin has yet to earn any trust in the majors, he was far worse than Stinky Ol' Fien every chance he got. Hopefully the combination of better results and a golden opportunity will change that this year but I can't blame the Twins for the way they've used Tonkin the last few years - he's just looked bad at the major league level. It takes some guys a little while - they showed some faith in him this year by not cutting him so clearly they always had some concept he had what it took if he could just put it together.

 

The Twins have regularly given young guys like Rosario, Buxton, Sano and Santana tons of opportunities. Unless this is only a bullpen thing, I don't see causation. The Twins have used young guys, they just don't give them an endless line to hang themselves with. Results = trust = opportunity. 

 

Round, and round and round.  Yes, we are talking about bullpen only. I'm not sure what Rosario, Buxton, Sano have to do with it.  

 

Since this is going nowhere, I'll make my point one more time. 

 

It's hard to believe them when they say the bullpen is going to improve because they have talented young guys, when they have proven they are unwilling to trust young guys. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Again, my original point is the new, younger guys who have come up are not given opportunities.  

 

Tonkin has spent parts of 3 seasons now on the MLB roster. He is a prime example of what I'm talking about, I've seen they have never been willing to trust him

 

I feel similar actually. If young guys are sentenced to serve two years in middle relief to "earn trust" then by the time they've earned it, they've already lost 2 MPH on their fastball and two years of more wear on their shoulders puts them closer to the end of their useful shelf life, which unfortunately for most pitchers is short.

 

"Earning trust" is how things used to work, it shouldn't any more, youth rules the game now, trust now needs to be put in physical attributes more than experience. Experience only means you are that much closer to losing your physical attributes, they will fail you eventually.

 

However they didn't do this with May, he was plugged into the back of the rotation pretty quickly, so I'm hopeful that when the big names in the minors are ready, Chargois, Burdi, Melotakis, they won't be giving the typical rookie hazing in the form of mop up duty and long relief.

 

[bird]

 

It's interesting that a team so determined to not get outside help for the bullpen, because of all the young, up and coming guys... is SO reluctant to actually use/ trust the "young guys".  

 

 

 

I'm not sure which "young guys" you think should have been paraded up to the big club in 2015 and "trusted" instead of "buried". O'Rourke, with his 6.41 ERA, was entrusted with more innings than he probably should have been last year, mainly because all he had to do was out-pitch the likes of Thielbar, Stauffer, Achter, and Cotts, who were all trusted for fewer innings than O'Rourke. And Tonkin wasn't trusted much in 2015 because he couldn't be counted on to deliver consistent results. Let's hope 2016 is his year. He'll be trusted plenty if he produces consistently. Just ask Ryan Pressly.

 

 

[DJL44]

I think Taylor Rogers might be gassed. He warmed up for like 3 innings before the rain ended last night's game. O'Rourke is ready to go today. That might be the simplest reason for this move.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think Taylor Rogers might be gassed. He warmed up for like 3 innings before the rain ended last night's game. O'Rourke is ready to go today. That might be the simplest reason for this move.

 

Good call.

 

[alarp33]

 

I'm not sure which "young guys" you think should have been paraded up to the big club in 2015 and "trusted" instead of "buried". O'Rourke, with his 6.41 ERA, was entrusted with more innings than he probably should have been last year, mainly because all he had to do was out-pitch the likes of Thielbar, Stauffer, Achter, and Cotts, who were all trusted for fewer innings than O'Rourke. And Tonkin wasn't trusted much in 2015 because he couldn't be counted on to deliver consistent results. Let's hope 2016 is his year. He'll be trusted plenty if he produces consistently. Just ask Ryan Pressly.

 

Tonkin, I already said that.  I wonder if his performance was iffy because he was always 1 bad pitch away from taking the train back to Rochester.  I would have definitely given him for a real opportunity at some point over like the likes of Cotts, Boyer, Stauffer, etc. Especially considering they had a roster decision to make on him this year. 

 

Tonkin April - August last year; up and down, no role.  11 2/3 innings, 8 er

Tonkin Sept/Oct:  11 2/3 innings 1 er

 

I also probably would've given Meyer a real shot at making the bullpen better later in the season. 

 

As to your last line, again that's my point. I don't think we'll see consistent results from these guys until they are given consistent opportunity. Chicken or the egg. 

 

I know Ryan O'Rourke can get out (only) lefties, and I think that's valuable.  I think Taylor Rogers may be able to get out lefties and the occasional righty, and wouldn't mind seeing him get that opportunity.  I know Casey Fien stinks

[bird]

I get so confused. Who are all these "young guys" of whom you speak?

 

They didn't have any decent young guys to call up during 2015, except Pressly, who got hurt. And Tonkin, who pitched like dog poop in a majority of his appearances. And JR Graham, who they trusted too much in the opinion of most people on this site. And O'Rourke, who isn't that decent and isn't that young, and who any fool knows can't be trusted against a right-handed hitter getting a MLB W-2.

 

In 2016, who exactly isn't being trusted enough? Pressly? May? Tonkin was the final roster decision. Yes, maybe Allen and Molitor could have found him an appearance or two even though most of the games were close, but they had better options and were desperately trying to put a W on the board. Rogers is a very poor example. He was right where he should have been in the pecking order while he was here, and they didn't find low-leverage opportunities to play him in this short period of time.

 

I'd contend that the Twins are no different than most teams when it comes to how they try to gradually expose pitchers to the stresses of MLB relief appearances. And let's remember, we're not dealing with elite talent when we talk about trusting Tonkin, Pressly, Rogers, O'Rourke...

[beckmt]

Pressly might be another major find, at this time too early to tell.  I agree that Fien's chances of being here in August are less than 50%.  Way Changois has started in Chattanooga it may be earlier than later.  Extra pitching is not a bad trade chip to have.  If the Twins fall out early, I can see a big bullpen makeover by midseason.  It is too early to tell, so enjoy. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Round, and round and round.  Yes, we are talking about bullpen only. I'm not sure what Rosario, Buxton, Sano have to do with it.  

 

Since this is going nowhere, I'll make my point one more time. 

 

It's hard to believe them when they say the bullpen is going to improve because they have talented young guys, when they have proven they are unwilling to trust young guys. 

 

K, we'll ignore the hitters - though it's hard to see how an organization would hold different policies for youth and hitters and pitchers.

 

And we'll have to disagree on approach a bit too - I think it's perfectly acceptable to start guys in low-leverage scenarios and then move them into more difficult scenarios as they show success. Trevor May was handled in that way and it worked well. But I get you disagree and want guys given a chance to prove themselves in close ballgames.

 

I guess I just don't see the evidence yet. Tonkin isn't a good example since he was terrible in his prior stints. Rogers was an injury replacement three weeks into becoming a reliever so that's hard to see either. JR Graham was a Rule 5 pickup and those are notoriously overmatched guys a team is later hoping to get into the minors and work on. And Trevor May is an example of a guy who started in lower-leverage situations and quickly moved into a late inning role so he's evidence against your point.

 

I think the reason for this lack of evidence is that the Twins just haven't had a lot of real good young relievers coming up the past few years. It's not like they're losing good young relievers, they just haven't had them. That's due to some bad drafting, some bad luck with injury and a regrettable tendency to hold onto guys (Dean, Rogers) as starters far too long (Hendricks is another example of that - if they'd moved him to reliever earlier perhaps he would not have been released as a failed starting prospect and would be anchoring this bullpen). I just don't see a body of evidence that shows the Twins not giving deserving young guys a chance to prove themselves.

 

But again, we shall see with Tonkin/Pressley/Fien. It may take 2-3 weeks but I think we'll see the former getting more opportunity and the latter less (if trends continue of course).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agreed, especially because the other team can just pinch hit a righty and then O'Rourke is not in an ideal position.

Teams have short benches these days, so a comparable righty bat may not be available to pinch hit.