Article: Player Predictions: SS Eduardo Escobar

[Seth Stohs]

How does a player overcome preconceived notions? Eduardo Escobar has found a way to overcome a industry’s preconceived notions that he was “only” a utility player. How? He earned it, two years in a row. So, how will he do in 2016 when he is the starting shortstop from Day 1?

 

Eduardo Escobar came up with the White Sox late in 2011. In 2012, he was the team’s utility infielder until the August trade that sent him to the Twins as part of the Francisco Liriano trade. He was a utility man for the Twins to start 2013 as well. In 2014, he was a utility man until Pedro Florimon struggled, and Danny Santana became a center fielder. Once he took over as the everyday shortstop in early July, he was good. Over those 64 games, he hit .277 with a .723 OPS as a 25-year-old.However, to start the 2015 season, Paul Molitor decided to give Santana the starting shortstop job. He stuck with him for a long time. On August 1st, Escobar became the Twins everyday shortstop again. Over the last 56 games, he hit .286/.350/.524 (.874) with 18 doubles and eight home runs. In just two months.

 

Finally, Escobar came to spring training this year knowing that he would be the Twins’ Opening Day shortstop.

 

Last year, Escobar started 65 games at shortstop. He certainly helped the Twins rankings compared to other teams’ shortstops with those strong final two months. Twins shortstops were 11th in baseball with a .267 batting average. They were 14th in on-base percentage at .312. They rank seventh in slugging percentage at .411, and their .723 OPS was ninth in the big leagues. In large part due to Escobar, the Twins shortstops led MLB shortstops with 42 doubles and were third with seven triples.

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

9.5 - In 2015, Escobar had 31 doubles four triples and 12 home runs in 446 plate appearances. That is 9.5 plate appearances per extra base hit (PA/XBH). Among all Twins hitters last year, Escobar’s 9.5 was second to only Miguel Sano’s 9.3 PA/XBH in his half-season debut.

 

Going back to 2014, Escobar’s 10.8 PA/XBH was second only to the 10.4 XBH/PA by Trevor Plouffe among players with more than 430 plate appearances.

 

No doubt, Escobar has been an extra base machine the last couple of seasons.

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Eduardo Escobar: 545 At-bats, .246/.295/.389 (.684), 33 doubles, 3 triples, 13 home runs.

 

These are not the numbers that Escobar put up over the final two months of the season. They’re below league average, but almost right on MLB average for a shortstop. With those doubles and homers, if he plays solid defense, he should keep the job all year. (If you were wondering, that’s a prediction of 11.1 PA/XBH, slightly below where he was in 2014.)

 

YOUR TURN

 

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Eduardo Escobar in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

 

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[markos]

ZIPS
.256 .302 .409 .711

Steamer
.261 .310 .393 .703

Marcel
.250 .270 .444 .715

PECOTA
.253 .294 .375 .669

 

I would take the OVER on Seth's projection. I'm not expecting Escobar to have an OPS below .700 at this point. 

[harren10]

Does anybody rank players by defensive stats anymore?... How does Escobar measure up? Like compared to the all the other Escobars for example..

 

I tried a little research with not much luck.

[bluechipper]

.265/.315/.415 with 15 HRs.

[nicksaviking]

His second half OBP was .330. It could be an outlier, or it could be that once he was secure that he had the starting job he wasn't as aggressive trying to make an impact.

 

I'm predicting an increased OBP due to seasoning and a less aggressive approach due to job security, but a decrease in slugging due reduced aggressiveness and the rigors of playing a full season.

 

.265/.325/.420. Only 8 HR but 40 2B.

[Kavan]

Bluechipper, my guess was almost exactly what yours was before I looked at the comments.  I'm thinking 260/310/410 seems about right.  He managed a .260 BA with a .301 BABIP last year, I wouldn't be surprised if BABIP jumps a little.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wow, I'm going to take the over on a Seth prediction.

 

I expect Escobar to fall somewhere in the low 700s. Maybe .720 if I had to put a number on it.

[Mike Sixel]

Huh, rare time I'm more optimistic than Seth!

 

I'll take nicks' numbers, please.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Seth:

 

You're giving EE 99 more plate appearances than 2015, but only 2 more doubles? One fewer triple?

 

I'm giving him a .262/.309/.445/.754, same as last year, but with 42 doubles, 8 triples and 15 home runs. 

 

With Sano, Park, and Rosario in the lineup, teams are going to be pitching to him to get him out. He'll take advantage of that.

[DocBauer]

Yeah, I'm on the over as well. I don't believe 2 consecutive seasons is an aberration at this point. Provided, of course, he also doesn't get run in to the ground over the course of a full season.

 

I'm thinking about .268/ .315 with 32 dbls, couple triples, 13 HR. Call me crazy, but healthy with a few days off to stay fresh, I could see AVG and OB both bump 10 points and another 5 or 6 XB hits.

[Seth Stohs]

See, I'm not always the most optimistic... Then again, I'm only under those other projections and thoughts by like .015 points of batting average, which is .030 points of OPS... not too bad.

[Thrylos]

Facts:

Escobar's Twins career:  .262/.305/.404

Escobar in the last 2 seasons: .268/.311/.424

 

Just entering his prime.  Cannot see him regressing by any means.

 

.275/.320/.435

[jud6312]

This could be a reach, but has anyone thought that maybe Escobar is in the same vein as Nick Punto was ... not in a bad way.

 

Punto, when serving in that utility role, battling for ABs and a starting job, played really well - or at least well enough to earn more playing time and eventually starting gigs. However, once those jobs were "handed" to him he struggled.

 

It seemed like that fire to prove them all wrong was what drove him. Could we see a bit of regression, as someone suggested earlier, now that he's been "given" the job from Day 1? Escobar strikes me as the kind of guy that wants to prove everybody wrong and that just drives him more.

 

That said, I hope it doesn't happen that way. I like Escobar and detested Punto. I'll be interested to see what "The Stick" can do with a full season ... see if there's something there full-time or if he's a super utility guy and they need to look at one of young guys long-term.

[Matt Johnson]

Eduardo Escobar pretty much undressed my wife with his eyes during warm-ups in Seattle, so he's alright with me.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Two things regarding a higher expectation for Eduardo Escobar (EE) this season:

 

1) I'm a little "old school" in thinking that MLB hitters don't peak until reaching that 2,000 PA/AB plateau. If that's the case, EE's star could keep rising as he's only at the 1243/1145 PA/AB level for his MLB career. 

 

2) I also think that EE will be hitting in a better, more seasoned lineup this year. He's simply going to see better pitches, IMHO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to say I'm a bit surprised that Seth is the pessimistic one here  

 

EE showed promise even as a utility guy.  In 2013, if I remember right, he was pretty hot for a month before coming back down to earth.  He was better in 2014, and he was even better in 2015.  I'm not quite sure he can sustain a .870 OPS for a season, but I really think he can keep an OPS around .800, which would make him one of the best short stops in baseball. 

 

What I find funny was the gnashing of teeth when he was what we got in the Liriano trade.  If he posts anything close to what we expect around here, the second Liriano trade will almost be as good as the first.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I too am a bit surprised the Escobar got the pessimistic projection from Seth.  Escobar had a below league-average K% last year, and an exactly league average BABIP (for non-pitchers).  He's exactly the kind of guy you could project to maintain his batting average, or perhaps even improve it slightly, but Seth has him predicted for a fall, and guys like Rosario and Dozer predicted for a big jump.