Will Fear of Past Ruin Future?

[Twodogs]

 

 

In part, that's the Twins fault too.  They were trying to make Ortiz something he wasn't and we never got to see the full potential.

This is kind of what I am worried about with Sano?  Making him into something he is not?

[ExpectMorePayLess]

ABW was an All American first baseman in college.  Not so worried about him there and I'm somewhat surprised they haven't toyed with him there yet.   Seen him do the splits in college.

Impressive for a guy 230+ pounds - if he can still do it?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not quite sure I get the parallels here between Ortiz and some of the guys listed in this thread.  There was never a doubt about Ortiz's hitting ability.  His issue was health and salary, so much so that TR couldn't trade him for a bag of balls that winter and ended up releasing him. 

 

Polanco has yet to show he can hit consistently at higher levels of the minors.  Arcia hasn't shown he can hit consistently in the majors.  Walker has yet to take a pitch in AAA.  All of these guys could end up being good hitters, but none are at the point where they can claim Ortiz's pedigree at the point at which the Twins released him. 

 

Likewise, fear of the past will likely keep these guys in MN longer than they should have been.  At the moment, they should all be there.  It will be interesting to see how things play out for them.  I suspect that at some point, some are traded.

[walt-o-meal]

 

Maybe it was PED related. 

Nah... Couldn't be. 

[alarp33]

The Twins should give Arcia this season to see if the light comes back on, because he has a lot of talent in that bat, not because they are afraid of repeating the Ortiz mistake.  

 

Since Vargas has an option left there's no need to do anything with him yet.  I don't see the talent there in his bat, and would be shocked if he ever comes back to haunt the Twins. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am tired of Big Papi. How can a guy who has had everything hold a grudge for so long? Plus he conveniently forgets that he sat unsigned for a month and when he signed with Boston it was for far less than he would have been due in arbitration. Plenty of teams agreed with the Twins assessment.

Some of these arguments are overrated.  Yes, Ortiz was unsigned for a month, but that month included the Christmas and New Year's holidays, and was Ortiz even stateside during that offseason?  It's quite possible he had to make arrangements to return to the country just to meet with other teams.  He signed well before spring training was set to begin, so I doubt he was in a desperate position.

 

Also, while he signed for less than his projected arbitration award, it wasn't by much -- given the numbers of his comparable Jeremy Giambi, I estimate he would have received about $1.8 mil in arbitration for 2003.  As it was, Boston did give him a guaranteed deal for $1.25 million, which was still a $300k raise over his 2002 salary.  The Twins meanwhile gave Mientkiewicz $1.75 mil in arbitration that same winter, had just paid Bob Wells $1.7 million for 2002, and committed $1 mil for each of 2002 and 2003 for Denny Hocking.  MLB average salary was $2.5 mil for 2003.

 

Also, had the Twins signed Ortiz via arbitration for $1.8 mil, we would have had 3 more months to trade him or find a spot for him on our roster, and still could have released him by March 15 and only had to pay him $300k termination pay (roughly one month's pay, equivalent to the MLB full season minimum salary at the time).

 

And Ortiz signed with an excellent franchise in Boston, where their projected DH (the aforementioned Jeremy Giambi) had his own injury history and was hardly locked into the position long-term.  It's possible Ortiz had quicker and slightly higher offers from worse teams too, but chose to take his time to sift out the best one.

 

No doubt all of baseball likely missed on Ortiz -- it's hard to imagine a left handed hitter, controlled for 2 more seasons, coming off a 120 OPS+, and furthermore coming off a 2nd half in 2002 where he was ~15th in MLB in ISO/SLG, and 24th in OPS (roughly equivalent to Miguel Sano's ranks in the 2nd half of 2015), would not have a significantly stronger market than a one year deal for half the MLB average salary.  But clearly the Twins missed far more than all others -- they had some future rights to his services for as little as $300k.

[Blackjack]

 

Do you think we are holding on to guys we could possibly trade earlier in their careers, because of that fear of losing someone special (ala Ortiz)?  We seem to stockpile and lose value on players, while never trading high and end up releasing them anyway at some point...........

Its a fine line. We've traded some 'excess' center fielders and then the ones we kept didn't cut it (Hicks). Yet one of the ones we kept got released (Benson).  Now we're getting to the point where we might have 'excess' middle infielders in the system, should one of them be traded for a position of need, with the risk that the ones that are kept will be guaranteed major league players?  Its a crap shoot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bogus....IMHO

Ortiz is the "Ruth" of the Twins franchise if you want to play that game. But that game is tired and old. EVERY SINGLE SPORT and team have players that "got away" and had success somewhere else.

Ortiz was a solid player, with solid production, with no real defensive position, and some injury history, that the Twins decided not to gamble on. The Sox won. Good for them. But it's not like a gypsy sooth teller pulled up one day and spit out a Zoltan card that said this guy would be an all time great DH.

I don't know, the Ortiz gaffe was pretty epic.  Unlike a lot of "ones that got away" where it took a lot more tinkering and adjustments to improve the player (i.e. Johan Santana), statistically Ortiz in 2003 was basically the exact same hitter he was with the Twins in the second half of 2002.

 

True, his total time in Minnesota was underwhelming overall, but coming off that very successful second half is an incredibly odd time to draw a firm line over ~$1.8 mil, even for a frugal franchise at the time.  (The same frugal franchise had just guaranteed a comparable amount to a mediocre middle reliever in Bob Wells for 2002, and to a replacement level utility infielder in Denny Hocking for 2002-2003.)

[jharaldson]

 

I am tired of Big Papi. How can a guy who has had everything hold a grudge for so long? Plus he conveniently forgets that he sat unsigned for a month and when he signed with Boston it was for far less than he would have been due in arbitration. Plenty of teams agreed with the Twins assessment.

 

Papi was 3rd on the Twins in 1998 with a .817 OPS.  To reward that the Twins demoted him to AAA for a full season.  I would be pissed off and hold a grudge if my employer held me back like that.

 

I would also say that he should be pissed off because here is a quote from Ryan when he released Ortiz:

 

 

Instead of non-tendering him, the club decided to drop Ortiz and pick up a middle infielder in the Rule V draft. "We ended up trading Ortiz for Morban,'' Ryan said.

 

He was dumped for a never-will-be shortstop.

[Thrylos]

Back to the OP question:

 

Ryan is by no means afraid to make a decision, because he was never held accountable for that one, and its consequences for the Twins (have a look at who was DH for the Twins in the post-season for example, and how those games went.)

 

I see no fear.  Fear of what?  Even the newspapers back then were supportive of Ryan's decision to keep LeCroy over Ortiz.

 

 

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

There's one sure way to figure this out: Trade Kennys Vargas to Boston. If the Twins are doing the same thing to Vargas that they did to David Ortiz, then Boston could have their next Big Papi for practically nada. It's really kind of silly to keep Vargas around anyway, if they want him to be a line drive hitter. In Boston they'll tell him, "swing for the fences and have fun, big guy." Like they did for Ortiz. 

 

Some guys just aren't built for small ball. 

Like the entire Twins roster.     I am entirely in a different camp than most here because whenever I see players struggling it looks like they are over swinging and trying to pull balls that cannot be pulled.   If the twins are teaching guys to be complete hitters it is not showing up as OBP which is kind of what small ball is dedicated to.

[nicksaviking]

 

Papi was 3rd on the Twins in 1998 with a .817 OPS.  To reward that the Twins demoted him to AAA for a full season.  I would be pissed off and hold a grudge if my employer held me back like that.

 

I would also say that he should be pissed off because here is a quote from Ryan when he released Ortiz:

 

 

He was dumped for a never-will-be shortstop.

 

It was a terrible move and it should have never happened, but I don't think the Twins were gauging players based on OPS in 2002. They still may not be at the top of the game in terms of using statistics, but they have made a concerted effort to improve. It seems pretty unfair to keep hammering away at something they know they screwed up and have made strides to rectify.

 

The whole premise of this thread is the Twins "fear" making the Ortiz mistake again. Isn't learning from the past what people who are still harping on this want? Or is it actually to re-stigmatize someone for an ancient blunder?

 

Also, as far as OPS goes, Eduardo Nunez had the Twins 2nd highest OPS last year and people have been yelling to DFA him since the season ended. If we're using that stat, we still have folks 15 years later who are blind to it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Papi was 3rd on the Twins in 1998 with a .817 OPS.  To reward that the Twins demoted him to AAA for a full season.  I would be pissed off and hold a grudge if my employer held me back like that.

1999 was rather inexcusable.  The offense of that 1999 team was terrible, we invested a ton of playing time at 1B/DH in scuffling soon-to-depart FA's in Cordova and Coomer, a struggling infielder in Walker, and the epically bad rookie Mientkiewicz.  Not to mention issues at other spots, like starting a low-upside OF in Chad Allen (who took a spot that could have gone to Cordova if the team deemed him a priority), etc.  Ortiz only got to start 4 times in 21 games after his September recall, even -- journeyman Midre Cummings got 8 starts during the same time frame.

 

I know Ortiz was coming off an injury in 1998 and apparently started slow at spring training in 1999, so some minor league time to get his stroke back was probably warranted, but there was no other prospect of his age/performance who was left to accumulate that many AB in AAA that season.  I'd guess whatever suspect justifications were used in 1999 were relied upon again in the decision to release him in 2002.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also, as far as OPS goes, Eduardo Nunez had the Twins 2nd highest OPS last year and people have been yelling to DFA him since the season ended. If we're using that stat, we still have folks 15 years later who are blind to it.

That's not really fair at all, unless you think OPS trumps sample size, age, underlying component stats, etc.

[Willihammer]

 

It was a terrible move and it should have never happened, but I don't think the Twins were gauging players based on OPS in 2002. They still may not be at the top of the game in terms of using statistics, but they have made a concerted effort to improve. It seems pretty unfair to keep hammering away at something they know they screwed up and have made strides to rectify..

I don't think its a moneyball / OPS thing though. Ortiz had a .277 BA with 9 HR and 46 RBI in 86 games in 1998. His triple crown stats compared equally or favorably to all 3 of the guys who would displace him-, Coomer, Mientkewicz, and Cordova. Especially Mientkewicz.

 

It was about TK and his man love for Mientkewicz's glove.

 

One last point about that 1999 team, they won 63 games.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think its a moneyball / OPS thing though. Ortiz had a .277 BA with 9 HR and 46 RBI in 86 games in 1998. His triple crown stats compared equally or favorably to all 3 of the guys who would displace him-, Coomer, Mientkewicz, and Cordova. Especially Mientkewicz.

 

It was about TK and his man love for Mientkewicz's glove.

 

One last point about that 1999 team, they won 63 games.

 

 

That's not really fair at all, unless you think OPS trumps sample size, age, underlying component stats, etc.

 

I don't, I was pointing out the opposite; I was refuting the idea that we should chastise the Twins for not making their decision on Ortiz based on his OPS.

[jimmer]

 

 

It was about TK and his man love for Mientkewicz's glove.

 

 

I have to admit, I had the same man love for Mienkie's defense.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't, I was pointing out the opposite; I was refuting the idea that we should chastise the Twins for not making their decision on Ortiz based on his OPS.

I sort of get your point.  But the two situations really aren't a fair match.  Ortiz's situation circa 2002 is nothing like Nunez's circa 2016.  As a slugger compared to the league, just using standard stats like SLG, XBH, HR, AB/HR, etc., Ortiz in the second half of 2002 was actually a pretty good performance match for Miguel Sano in the second half of 2015.  Not saying that Ortiz and Sano were in similar situations either -- but that's clearly not a performance you release in favor of a longshot Rule 5 pick, or to save a couple bucks, etc.  If you don't believe in the performance going forward, you can try to trade high, but under no circumstances do you give that player his outright release at that moment in time.  No need to bring OPS or advanced stats into it, really.

 

A bench player like Nunez, on the other hand, you can always make a decent argument for jettisoning.

[diehardtwinsfan]

given how bad the bench was last year, having  a guy like Nunez who actually might put the ball in play isn't a bad option.

[Squirrel]

 

Papi was 3rd on the Twins in 1998 with a .817 OPS.  To reward that the Twins demoted him to AAA for a full season.  I would be pissed off and hold a grudge if my employer held me back like that.

 

I would also say that he should be pissed off because here is a quote from Ryan when he released Ortiz:

 

 

He was dumped for a never-will-be shortstop.

Yeah, but after 15 years or so, get over it. He showed the Twins by doing what he's been doing with the Red Sox how wrong they were. It's just not news anymore and, imo, is a cheap way for Reusse to get clicks and responses.

[Squirrel]

 

 

 

It was about TK and his man love for Mientkewicz's glove.

 

Yup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

given how bad the bench was last year, having  a guy like Nunez who actually might put the ball in play isn't a bad option.

Oh, no doubt.  I have nothing against Nunez.  But a bench guy nearing free agency who's already been DFA'd once is the kind of guy who is always on the bubble if your club finds another modest opportunity for his roster spot or his salary.

 

A guy coming off Ortiz's second half in 2002, paired on a roster with such luminaries as Doug Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy, not so much.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, but after 15 years or so, get over it. He showed the Twins by doing what he's been doing with the Red Sox how wrong they were. It's just not news anymore and, imo, is a cheap way for Reusse to get clicks and responses.

To be fair, these kinds of articles will probably dry up once Ortiz is officially retired, so we've got to get them in while the getting is good!

 

Also, baseball arguments are timeless (meaning, it sometimes seems they'll never end ).

[Squirrel]

 

To be fair, these kinds of articles will probably dry up once Ortiz is officially retired, so we've got to get them in while the getting is good!

 

Also, baseball arguments are timeless (meaning, it sometimes seems they'll never end ).

Ha ... I was just thinking that ... well, more along the lines of 'I can't wait until he retires so maybe some of this will retire right along with him.'

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You forgot Vargas

you're right! Whatever will they do?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

To be fair, these kinds of articles will probably dry up once Ortiz is officially retired, so we've got to get them in while the getting is good!

 

Also, baseball arguments are timeless (meaning, it sometimes seems they'll never end ).

 

Makes me wonder how many times Giants fans get to hear articles about AJ for Nathan/Bonser/Liriano...

[glunn]

 

Makes me wonder how many times Giants fans get to hear articles about AJ for Nathan/Bonser/Liriano...

 

I wonder whether the World Series wins have cleansed that situation.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, but after 15 years or so, get over it. He showed the Twins by doing what he's been doing with the Red Sox how wrong they were. It's just not news anymore and, imo, is a cheap way for Reusse to get clicks and responses.

3 world series to 0 world series, I won't get over this until the Twins win another World Series.