Article: 2016 Roster Projections: The Relief Pitchers

[Otto von Ballpark]

I might not have been clear. I meant there is frequently a pitcher that is legitimately injured or just not quite ready for opening day coming out of spring training. My guess is that happens again this season and therefore there Nolasco gets another chance at starting. Kind of like Pelfrey last season (though hopefully without the drug suspension).

Is it that frequent? Seems like most of the time, the injury or surgery happens before this point (Baker, Diamond, Nathan, etc.). I think pitchers get babied the next couple months. Unless someone is hiding something, I think all of our starters finished 2015 (Nolasco just barely).

[KirbyDaisy]

Would rather see Perkins as a setup to Jepson, or at the very least, have them both close and setup based on situations.

[Dantes929]

 

I think the larger point stands -- the Twins bullpen was still very suspect in the 2nd half, and it's largely the same group projected here.

I can be more specific here.   As insane as Perkins was in the first half he was that bad in the 2nd half.   His ERA the first half was 1.21 in 38 games and had 28 saves.   In the 2nd half he had a 7.32 ERA (doesn't even contemplate inherited runners scored) in 22 appearances and just 4 saves.     Since we added May and Jepsen to the pen after the break I am guessing that if Perkins was available more and pitched even to career average we wouldn't be remembering the 2015 bullpen as being suspect int the 2nd half.   Therefore a lot of this simply boils down to how you view Perkins.   If he is good then the pen should be decent.   If he is not then depth is way more of a concern.

[nicksaviking]

I'll trade the MLB pen for Chattenooga's straight up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can be more specific here. As insane as Perkins was in the first half he was that bad in the 2nd half. His ERA the first half was 1.21 in 38 games and had 28 saves. In the 2nd half he had a 7.32 ERA (doesn't even contemplate inherited runners scored) in 22 appearances and just 4 saves. Since we added May and Jepsen to the pen after the break I am guessing that if Perkins was available more and pitched even to career average we wouldn't be remembering the 2015 bullpen as being suspect int the 2nd half. Therefore a lot of this simply boils down to how you view Perkins. If he is good then the pen should be decent. If he is not then depth is way more of a concern.

I don't know, there were a lot of times when we just didn't have a pitcher we trusted late in the season. May wasn't available all the time, Jepsen was saved for ninth, etc. Didn't have a good long man, didn't always play matchups well, etc.

[bird]

 

There certainly are a lot of names listed--many of them who were touted as "top-of-the-rotation" pitchers.  

 

Name one.

[stringer bell]

I think it is pretty likely that one of the starters is at least "nicked up" and disabled coming into the season. If no one truly disappoints, the Twins could have the luxury of being very cautious with any injury. There aren't many guys with options and too many 30+ year old starters.

 

I hope the Twins find room for Pressly, if he is as effective as he was last year. Tonkin deserves one fair shot based on his minor league numbers. Last year's development of bullpen options in the minors was a major disappointment. This year should be different.

[Dantes929]

 

I don't know, there were a lot of times when we just didn't have a pitcher we trusted late in the season. May wasn't available all the time, Jepsen was saved for ninth, etc. Didn't have a good long man, didn't always play matchups well, etc.

Not really arguing but kind of making my point.   Perkins ineffectiveness had ripple effects.    He was either hurt or bad.   Instead of giving us 35 innings of quality relief in situations described he gave us 28 innings of bad pitching.   That lost games as well as thinned the pen.   We couldn't play match ups because Perkins was hurt or bad.   May had to pitch the day before because Perkins was hurt or bad.   We had no options we could trust with May or Jepsen  out because Perkins was hurt or bad.   Again, 3 good guys and a couple average guys ie, Tonkin, Fien can do be all right but if you turn one of those good guys into a very bad guy and you have problems.   Like I said, I am not against getting a quality guy but we really need the guys we expect to be quality to live up to it.   After the break, Perkins definitely did not.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

When one player can cause your bullpen to be near replacement level (Twins relievers 0.3 WAR combined in the 2nd half), that's not a deep pen.

 

That's why I wanted some insurance, another good pitcher who could help us hold steady if Perk had trouble again, or Jepsen regressed, or Fien, or May was needed for rotation duty, etc. And if those guys all came through, with another top arm you'd have a decent chance at a top 10 bullpen.

 

Instead we backfilled, again, with Abad.

Edited January 29, 2016 by spycake

[mikelink45]

I just finished reading the Peter Gammon blog and found it really had a message for this thread - http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-bullpen-stability-proves-vital-as-pendulum-of-dominance-continues-toward-pitching/ 

 

Hopefully the Twins have the pitching coaches in majors and minors to do what Peter describes, I have no way of judging them, but the one final aspect that I fear is the analytics.  The Twins have shown real reluctance in jumping fully in to the new era of advance statistical analysis and Gammons blog really makes a case for more.  

TR please read the blog and ask your in-house stats man to interpret.

[HitInAPinch]

The plan seems to start with Perkins and Jepsen at the end, May, Fien and Abbad working the middle.  The rest of the plan [so far] seems to point towards running through the list of MiLB relievers to see who sticks.  Pressly deserves first shot and Tonkin should get one, too.  Twins just need to know what they've really got.  And if more that one are successful, hey, Fien and Abbad are replaceable parts.

[Vanimal46]

 

Tonkin deserves one fair shot based on his minor league numbers. Last year's development of bullpen options in the minors was a major disappointment. This year should be different.

To play devil's advocate, I would argue that Tonkin's received plenty of opportunities to stick. 60 MLB appearances is a pretty decent sample size, and perhaps he hasn't shown enough for the FO to keep him on the MLB roster. 

[mazeville]

That roster looks a little depressing. It really would have been nice if the team signed or traded for another really good back-end arm.

 

Now just you watch: Perkins returns to form, Jepsen is lights out again, May is dominant, Abad is "Agood" and someone like Alex Meyer and/or Nick Burdi get called up and dominate themselves, giving the team a killer bullpen and proving everyone wrong. 

[stringer bell]

To play devil's advocate, I would argue that Tonkin's received plenty of opportunities to stick. 60 MLB appearances is a pretty decent sample size, and perhaps he hasn't shown enough for the FO to keep him on the MLB roster.

The problem is that Tonkin has been on the AAA/MLB elevator. His 60 appearances are spread over parts of three seasons (IIRC) and interrupted by multiple options to AAA. He's also been in multiple roles. I agree that his MLB numbers are no reason to keep him around, but he's been effective at AAA, throws pretty hard and is still fairly young.

[Vanimal46]

 

The problem is that Tonkin has been on the AAA/MLB elevator. His 60 appearances are spread over parts of three seasons (IIRC) and interrupted by multiple options to AAA. He's also been in multiple roles. I agree that his MLB numbers are no reason to keep him around, but he's been effective at AAA, throws pretty hard and is still fairly young.

That is true his appearances have been spread out over 3 seasons. I'd also argue there's a reason he's been on the AAA/MLB elevator. That being he's merely a AAAA player. The Twins have had a few examples in recent years (Slama, Oliveros, Achter) of pitchers with promising AAA numbers, but just doesn't have enough to stick in an MLB bullpen. 

At the end of the day I still agree with you that Tonkin's most likely going to make the opening day bullpen and get his shot. If he's still inconsistent over a few appearances, I hope the Twins are quick to move on to one of our other younger guys like Rogers, Burdi, Chargois, etc. if they don't make the team out of ST.  

[nicksaviking]

 

To play devil's advocate, I would argue that Tonkin's received plenty of opportunities to stick. 60 MLB appearances is a pretty decent sample size, and perhaps he hasn't shown enough for the FO to keep him on the MLB roster. 

 

 Pending May's results and spot, he's the hardest throwing guy in the pen using these projections.  I'd bump him if one of the young hot-shots are ready, but I'd still keep him over Fien and I don't need to give Nolasco much of a leash before I'm ready to pull the plug on him.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd see if CO wants Tonkin, he fits their mold of guys that throw hard, but don't rely on movement (since the balls don't move as much in CO). They must have an A ball prospect of some worth.....

[Vanimal46]

 

 Pending May's results and spot, he's the hardest throwing guy in the pen using these projections.  I'd bump him if one of the young hot-shots are ready, but I'd still keep him over Fien and I don't need to give Nolasco much of a leash before I'm ready to pull the plug on him.

I'm on board with that. I'm sure he'll be in the MLB bullpen out of ST since he's out of options, but if he's still inconsistent, I can see him being a DFA candidate and the young arms take his spot. 

[Sir_Eugene11]

 

The plan seems to start with Perkins and Jepsen at the end, May, Fien and Abbad working the middle.  The rest of the plan [so far] seems to point towards running through the list of MiLB relievers to see who sticks.  Pressly deserves first shot and Tonkin should get one, too.  Twins just need to know what they've really got.  And if more that one are successful, hey, Fien and Abbad are replaceable parts.

Leaving Milone out? Fien and Pressly both have an option left but I think you need Abad, Milone, and Perkins all for LHRP. Unless you take a bench spot away for 8 RP's but I don't think that's a good idea either.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Leaving Milone out? Fien and Pressly both have an option left but I think you need Abad, Milone, and Perkins all for LHRP. Unless you take a bench spot away for 8 RP's but I don't think that's a good idea either.

Unless something has changed recently, Milone is a starter.

[Sir_Eugene11]

 

Unless something has changed recently, Milone is a starter.

Along with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey, and Nolasco. Wasn't sure which one of those you were leaving off the 25-man in place of Tonkin and Pressly.

[stringer bell]

Pressly has an option remaining. It wouldn't surprise me if it is used this year. Probably at the beginning of the year.