Twins Lose Zack Jones in Rule 5

[TNLooky2015]

DJ Johnson left the Twins to sign with the Marlins and got taken by the Angels in the Rule 5 minor league draft.  Even when you make your own decisions - you don't make your own decisions.  Hope he didn't move to FL already.

[sane09]

 

DJ Johnson left the Twins to sign with the Marlins and got taken by the Angels in the Rule 5 minor league draft.  Even when you make your own decisions - you don't make your own decisions.  Hope he didn't move to FL already.

Since he was selected in the MINOR league Rule 5 draft, it means that the Marlins didn't include him in their 38-man AAA reserve list, so the Angels OBVIOUSLY thought more highly of him then did the Marlins. He should be happy to be with the Angels.

[beckmt]

Twins seem to have done a good job, losing only 1 player in all the draft. 

For the Hicks comments,  there seems to be an assumption that other GM's are fools.  You lose Murphy or Suzuki to a broken leg at the end of spring training, and do not have a Hicks on the 40 man, you are left with two choices, adding Turner and Garver to play one day a week and sit on the bench here(losing development time) or overplaying for a replacement level player to fill a need. 

Not every front office move works out.  Some of us disagree with many, but keeping your 12 - 15th best relief pitcher on the 40 man, does not seem like good math.

[TRex]

 

DJ Johnson left the Twins to sign with the Marlins and got taken by the Angels in the Rule 5 minor league draft.  Even when you make your own decisions - you don't make your own decisions.  Hope he didn't move to FL already.

At $3,000 a day, without having to ride on busses and

 

"The hotels... brass spittoons in the lobbies, brass beds in the rooms. It was the crowd, rising to their feet when the ball was hit deep. Shoot,  <he'd> play for nothing!'

in the big leagues no matter what team he is on! Here's hoping he makes it through spring training!

[gunnarthor]

 

They (Ryan) also Jettisoned David Ortiz at age 26. Not the same as the rule 5 draft exposure, but in fact 10x worse at the time, and 100,000x worse currently. That move alone cost us a title.

You think at some point Ryan would try, just once to keep the upside guy (Jones) over the mediocre guy (Dean). And honestly, I don't mind Dean being in the system, I just don't understand why you wouldn't remove him for the 40 (leave him unprotected) and just bring him back after the draft?

What you don't seem to understand is that Jones isn't an upside guy.  I'm not sure how why you keep failing to understand that.  Stop scouting a stat line.  He's not a good prospect.  This is the Slama stuff all over again.  Jones lacks control, is too old for his level, has failed at AA, is extremely replaceable and is not worth a 40 man roster spot.  He might become Jim Hoey if everything breaks for him - although Hoey had already made the majors and dominated the upper minors at the same age.  40 man roster spots go to guys who might in some conceivable way be needed in 2016.  Jones, as Seth and Thyrlos have pointed out, is waaaaaay down the depth chart.  For him to make the 2016 team, he'd need to have a break out year and a roster spot to open up. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For those reasons, you "don't think it matters one bit'?

You have the right to think or not think whatever you wish.

I'm sure that convincing me is not your goal.

My quote was "Ultimately, I don't think it matters one bit."

 

And I don't. You can believe otherwise. Have at it. No matter whether the Twins kept Zach Jones, Pat Dean, or a cardboard cutout of Willie Nelson on their 40 man roster as of December 11, 2015, I suspect all three would be off the 40 man by mid 2016.

 

And, in that case, none of this matters one bit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They (Ryan) also Jettisoned David Ortiz at age 26. Not the same as the rule 5 draft exposure, but in fact 10x worse at the time, and 100,000x worse currently. That move alone cost us a title.

You think at some point Ryan would try, just once to keep the upside guy (Jones) over the mediocre guy (Dean). And honestly, I don't mind Dean being in the system, I just don't understand why you wouldn't remove him for the 40 (leave him unprotected) and just bring him back after the draft?

You continue to use the word "upside" in reference to Jones. I don't think he's much of an upside guy.

 

Does he have more upside than Dean? Yeah, probably... But Zach was likely two years from MLB before the Rule 5 draft. That's two years you have to give this guy a roster spot in hopes he figures it out. A guy you demoted down to A+ ball last season as a 24 year old.

 

I still can't figure out why you care about this so much, Dave. Would I have handled things differently were it my decision? Yeah, probably... But this is definitely one of those "meh, whatever, not all decisions are worth scrutinizing" moments. There's absolutely no reason to get worked up about losing a 24 year old pitcher who was demoted to A+ ball and walks five flippin' guys per nine innings.

 

And for the love of god, stop bringing up David Ortiz in comparison to any player in MiLB. In Minnesota, he had 1700 plate appearances and a 108 OPS+. He slugged .461.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yikes.  There's a lot of ink being spilled about the loss of a powerball ticket here.  My 2 cents, for what little they are worth:

 

1)  I won't argue Jones vs. Dean, but I don't think this is really that big of a deal.  Like Brock said, Jones was pretty far back on that depth chart, very unlikely to succeed, where as Dean has a real chance of spending some time in the majors (though I highly doubt he'd have been selected).

 

2)  Let's leave David Ortiz out of this.  Ryan tried unsuccessfully to trade Ortiz for a bag of balls and got nowhere.  He cleared waivers as every GM in baseball didn't want him due to what he'd make in arbitration.  He was a huge question mark, and every GM in baseball had a chance to get him for a song and passed.  Hindsight is 20/20, and if the Twins were in the same boat, they'd have offered him arb or someone would have sent a nice prospect our way for him.  These situations don't really compare.

 

3)  Not sure where John Hicks plays into this at all.  The Twins will likely need a 3rd catcher.  They can stash him in AAA and call him up when needed.  You need a guy like that on a 40 man, far more than you need a 12th relief pitcher. 

[nicksaviking]

 

1)  I won't argue Jones vs. Dean, but I don't think this is really that big of a deal.  Like Brock said, Jones was pretty far back on that depth chart, very unlikely to succeed, where as Dean has a real chance of spending some time in the majors (though I highly doubt he'd have been selected).

 

 

My take:

 

If Dean spends time in the majors with the Twins, particularly as a starter, something very, very bad has happened. On the other hand, things could be working out aces for the Twins and Jones still had (has) the chance to be a useful part of the pen. 

 

If it's me, I'm setting my 40-man to optimize my chances for a best case scenario, not to mitigate disaster.

 

Not that my feathers are too ruffled about it.

[DaveW]

 

Yikes.  There's a lot of ink being spilled about the loss of a powerball ticket here.  My 2 cents, for what little they are worth:

 

1)  I won't argue Jones vs. Dean, but I don't think this is really that big of a deal.  Like Brock said, Jones was pretty far back on that depth chart, very unlikely to succeed, where as Dean has a real chance of spending some time in the majors (though I highly doubt he'd have been selected).

 

2)  Let's leave David Ortiz out of this.  Ryan tried unsuccessfully to trade Ortiz for a bag of balls and got nowhere.  He cleared waivers as every GM in baseball didn't want him due to what he'd make in arbitration.  He was a huge question mark, and every GM in baseball had a chance to get him for a song and passed.  Hindsight is 20/20, and if the Twins were in the same boat, they'd have offered him arb or someone would have sent a nice prospect our way for him.  These situations don't really compare.

 

3)  Not sure where John Hicks plays into this at all.  The Twins will likely need a 3rd catcher.  They can stash him in AAA and call him up when needed.  You need a guy like that on a 40 man, far more than you need a 12th relief pitcher. 

The Ortiz situation is relevant, it provides an example of a time where the Twins let a talented but frustrating 26 year old go way too quickly.

Jones was striking out 12 guys per 9 and was an all star in 2015, he had a bad second half but it's clear the talent and the arm were there.

 

Again, they choose to keep Pat Dean over him, will this move come back and bite the Twins in the ass? Probably/Hopefully not, but it will bite them again eventually when they stick with the Pat Deans of the world over the Zack Jones.

 

As far as a lot of ink being spilled, this is the only move the Twins have been involved in in the winter meetings, and it's not like they were connected to a whole lot of "good" players as well anyways to begin with. This is what happens when you do nothing, the little moves/decisions like this get put under a microscope.

If they actually picked up a RP during the winter meetings, people would care a lot less about losing Jones (a RP who can strike people out)

[USAFChief]

 

What you don't seem to understand is that Jones isn't an upside guy.  I'm not sure how why you keep failing to understand that.  Stop scouting a stat line.  He's not a good prospect.  This is the Slama stuff all over again.  Jones lacks control, is too old for his level, has failed at AA, is extremely replaceable and is not worth a 40 man roster spot.  He might become Jim Hoey if everything breaks for him - although Hoey had already made the majors and dominated the upper minors at the same age.  40 man roster spots go to guys who might in some conceivable way be needed in 2016.  Jones, as Seth and Thyrlos have pointed out, is waaaaaay down the depth chart.  For him to make the 2016 team, he'd need to have a break out year and a roster spot to open up. 

Jones may not be a "good" prospect.

 

There may be good reasons to leave him off the 40 man in favor of someone like Dean.

 

But Jones is EXACTLY an "upside guy."  He's throws extremely hard.  That's sort of the definition of "upside."  As in, if he maximizes his potential, there's a lot of room to grow there.  

 

That's why he was mentioned in numerous places as a candidate to be picked in the RuleV draft, and why he eventually was.

 

Because he has "upside."  

 

 

[DaveW]

 

Jones may not be a "good" prospect.

 

There may be good reasons to leave him off the 40 man in favor of someone like Dean.

 

But Jones is EXACTLY an "upside guy."  He's throws extremely hard.  That's sort of the definition of "upside."  As in, if he maximizes his potential, there's a lot of room to grow there.  

 

That's why he was mentioned in numerous places as a candidate to be picked in the RuleV draft, and why he eventually was.

 

Because he has "upside."  

Well said.

I know his "control" problems will be tossed out as a rebuttal, but it's important to note that while yes, he does need to cut down his walks, it's not exactly Shooter Hunt territory here, if he can get his BB rate from a 4.8 down to a 3.8-4.0 along with his 11-12 k/9 rate he has a future in this league for sure.

[USAFChief]

 

Well said.

I know his "control" problems will be tossed out as a rebuttal, but it's important to note that while yes, he does need to cut down his walks, it's not exactly Shooter Hunt territory here, if he can get his BB rate from a 4.8 down to a 3.8-4.0 along with his 11-12 k/9 rate he has a future in this league for sure.

His control problems are part of why he has "upside."  It's something that needs to be fixed, but if it is, there's huge "upside" there.

 

Control problems aren't a reason he doesn't have upside, they're part of the explanation for why he DOES have unrealized upside.

[DaveW]

 

His control problems are part of why he has "upside."  It's something that needs to be fixed, but if it is, there's huge "upside" there.

 

Control problems aren't a reason he doesn't have upside, they're part of the explanation for why he DOES have unrealized upside.

Very true and very well said.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm with Nick and chief and dave on this part.......I'd like to see them bet on upside more, and stop trying to plan for the worst, safest, path. It appears that they do that a lot (not always, btw).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm with Nick and chief and dave on this part.......I'd like to see them bet on upside more, and stop trying to plan for the worst, safest, path. It appears that they do that a lot (not always, btw).

As would I. Obviously, we all want upside guys over mediocrity. Maybe the Twins dangled Jones because they thought no one would take him.

 

Or maybe the Twins dangled Jones because they believe he has no chance of becoming a successful MLB player. They've had multiple seasons to watch this guy pitch.

 

This is a problem with the word "upside". We're scouting "upside" from a stat line but it's possible Jones has other problems that will prevent him from ever reaching that "upside" and the Twins know it. After all, they've scouted the guy more than anyone else on the planet.

 

Or maybe the Twins just made a mistake and did something stupid, letting go of a guy who could be good.

 

But let's not assume there's big upside just because the guy has put a pretty number in the K/9 column. Jones is intriguing, yes... But he's also the #25 prospect in a system that is no longer awesome, nor is it particularly deep. The people who watch this guy pitch don't seem particularly enthralled by him.

[USAFChief]

"The people who watch this guy pitch don't seem particularly enthralled by him."

 

Actually, many people who watch this guy pitch listed him as a good Rule V candidate, and one team who watched him pitch opted to put him, temporarily at least, on their 25 man roster.

 

Again...we can recognize there may be reasons Jones was left off in favor of Dean, but let's stop pretending Jones isn't intriguing or have "upside."

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

"The people who watch this guy pitch don't seem particularly enthralled by him."

 

Actually, many people who watch this guy pitch listed him as a good Rule V candidate, and one team who watched him pitch opted to put him, temporarily at least, on their 25 man roster.

 

Again...we can recognize there may be reasons Jones was left off in favor of Dean, but let's stop pretending Jones isn't intriguing or have "upside."

I said he was intriguing, I only questioned his upside.

 

So did everyone else, as he was passed over by every team once in the Rule V draft.

 

Again, I wouldn't have kept Dean... But this thread is how many pages long now? About a guy who struggled in AA as a 24 year old?

 

It's entirely possible Jones has little to no chance of reaching his upside, as the team who has seen him more than anyone else didn't protect him and every team in baseball passed over him in the first round.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not saying anything about this deal, in particular, Brock.....like I said earlier, I don't think this matters much. But, it is a trend, imo, that we saw last year also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not saying anything about this deal, in particular, Brock.....like I said earlier, I don't think this matters much. But, it is a trend, imo, that we saw last year also.

No disagreements about previous years. The Twins have chosen the back end of their 40 man rosters in ways I do not understand.

 

I'm not giving the team a pass, I simply don't understand the gnashing of teeth over Jones. Yeah, I'd prefer to have him in the org but I'm not going to get too riled up about it, either.

 

I guess my problem boils down to this: every decision can not be judged as right or wrong the moment it happens, particularly as we have very limited information available to us as fans. In time, this may prove to be a big mistake by Ryan. Or it may turn out Ryan is right and Jones wasn't worth protecting. I'll sit back and wait for the results and avoid prognostication. Getting all hot and bothered about it right now seems a bit silly (and it seems you agree).

 

And if it turns out Ryan is right and Jones is destined for failure, will everyone who vocally complained about the move retract their bashing of Ryan? There's a lot to dislike about Ryan and how he runs an organization but I don't think this move is one of those moments.

[DaveW]

 

 

And if it turns out Ryan is right and Jones is destined for failure, will everyone who vocally complained about the move retract their bashing of Ryan? There's a lot to dislike about Ryan and how he runs an organization but I don't think this move is one of those moments.

Nobody is "bashing" Ryan in this thread, we are critical of him, good lord.

The only way Ryan is "right" is if Jones never does anything in the majors and Dean somehow becomes a major league pitcher for a year or two. If both "flame out" it was still the wrong decision since Jones had/has/always has had upside while Dean does not.

 

This would sorta be like keeping Doug Bernier on a 40 man over Niko Goodrum. (Not the best comparison, but you get what I am getting at)

[gunnarthor]

 

Jones may not be a "good" prospect.

 

There may be good reasons to leave him off the 40 man in favor of someone like Dean.

 

But Jones is EXACTLY an "upside guy."  He's throws extremely hard.  That's sort of the definition of "upside."  As in, if he maximizes his potential, there's a lot of room to grow there.  

 

That's why he was mentioned in numerous places as a candidate to be picked in the RuleV draft, and why he eventually was.

 

Because he has "upside."  

Just because he throws hard and has control problems doesn't mean if he can suddenly fix it, he's an upside guy.  His upside is Jim Hoey.  You don't waste 40 man roster spots for a guy who can, in two years, become Jim Hoey.

[gunnarthor]

 

Nobody is "bashing" Ryan in this thread, we are critical of him, good lord.

The only way Ryan is "right" is if Jones never does anything in the majors and Dean somehow becomes a major league pitcher for a year or two. If both "flame out" it was still the wrong decision since Jones had/has/always has had upside while Dean does not.

 

This would sorta be like keeping Doug Bernier on a 40 man over Niko Goodrum. (Not the best comparison, but you get what I am getting at)

Pretty sure most people would think comments along the lines of "Ryan is happy settling for mediocrity" or Ryan doesn't know how to put a roster together go a bit beyond "critical."  You stuff gets old Dave.

[DaveW]

 

Just because he throws hard and has control problems doesn't mean if he can suddenly fix it, he's an upside guy.  His upside is Jim Hoey.  You don't waste 40 man roster spots for a guy who can, in two years, become Jim Hoey.

No you just trade gold glove SS for them...

[DaveW]

 

Pretty sure most people would think comments along the lines of "Ryan is happy settling for mediocrity" or Ryan doesn't know how to put a roster together go a bit beyond "critical."  You stuff gets old Dave.

The first one is not bashing, its accurate observation. The second one was bashing, and I take that back.

[old nurse]

 

No you just trade gold glove SS for them...

The GM who made that trade no longer works as a GM. Any bets on the scout who reccomended that trade still being employed?

[old nurse]

Jones has yet to make a 25 man roster. The Brewers might be a bad enough club to be trying to play for number one. so he could make the roster

29 teams passed on him once. 5 teams passed on him twice. As San Diego was trading for rule 5 picks, San Diego passed on him at least 20 times.  Yes he has a chance to be a good player. In 4 years he has shown promise. That is all. No big deal. It is likely the Twins will get offered something in trade. I hope they select wisely

[TRex]

 

<snip>

If it's me, I'm setting my 40-man to optimize my chances for a best case scenario, not to mitigate disaster.

 

Not that my feathers are too ruffled about it.

I think the 40th man on the roster (and the 25-man on the MLB roster) is EXACTLY about mitigating disaster!

 

The odds that that player will drive you to the postseason (or even win a game) are infinitesimally small. However, in an emergency (which may be really rare), having to reach down to your 3rd best AAA starter instead of your second-best can absolutely COST you a game. 

 

That is also why Nick Punto was valuable as the 25th man, because he actually played very good SS defense, and that can also cost you a game. Now, I understand that he was played too much (and exposed as a non-starter), but that is not his fault.

[TRex]

 

His control problems are part of why he has "upside."  It's something that needs to be fixed, but if it is, there's huge "upside" there.

 

Control problems aren't a reason he doesn't have upside, they're part of the explanation for why he DOES have unrealized upside.

First off, let me reiterate that the Twins did NOT DFA Jones. They were very interested in having him remain a Twin, but didn't feel he warranted a spot on the 40-man roster (like 5-7 of our other top-40 prospects). 

 

If, as TNLooky2015 points out, his velo readings were more often 94 than 97-98 last year, how much upside does he actually have?

 

Also, after 4 years with the club, do you really think that there is much 'fixing' that the Twins can do?

(Hopefully this doesn't start a rant about how the Twins can't develop pitchers)

[Linus]

I think Dean is being undervalued here. I get that he isn't a sexy prospect but he's lefthanded and had a strong season at AAA. Deep teams have effective AAA starters they can call up when things go haywire. He has value in this role even if he never becomes a regular for the Twins. And yes I get that have many starters now but that could be very different as early as 2017