The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Once the rotation is fixed and the unneeded vets are out of the picture, then I'm in favor of aggressively plugging the holes.

I see where you are coming from, but what if the rotation fixes itself faster than you expect?  Or, what it if doesn't fix itself at all?

 

I think in modern MLB, you can't time your rebuild and aggressive moves as easily and plainly as in the past.  I think the best course of action is to always be ready to make aggressive moves.

[Platoon]

Don't you be bringing in logic, common sense, and facts into a thread full of blistering hot sports takes

Honest question. Why is it such a common belief that Hicks has "turned the corner"?

 

By looking at his batting average monthly splits on FG no corner seems to have been turned, other than a very strong July.

May- .259 June- .229 July- .346 Aug- .213 Sep/Oct- .226

 

1st Half- .266      2nd Half- .250

 

I am not trying to hate on Hicks. He could very well become an All-Star, but the Twins have about 5 other guys with that potential if not greater and we had no readily available catching talent.

. I reversed these, but the point remains! If you are gonna do monthly stats, you better throw Doziers and Hunter's in there also!

[Platoon]

Apologies for any offense.  I just don't understand how people fail to see that this trade has a high probability of making the Twins a worse baseball team in 2016 (relative to keeping Hicks for a few months).  That is, unless the FO bucks the trend and starts Buxton in CF or signs a quality OF free agent (which...come on...we know how TR opperates).

 

Just like the incompetence last year that cost the fans a wild-card game.  We're going to look back on this and say, "if only we would've had a center fielder to start the season, instead of [insert 35 year old AAAA retread here]."

It's a little known fact that games in the first two months of the season don't count, nor do games that the rookie you brought up late needs to acclimate count. The only games that count are after the AS game! . The ones where you are -9 in the standings, but battling 5 teams for the second WC spot. That said, this trade will make more sense if Buxton starts in CF off the bat. If they keep him back for service time, and Kepler, and move Sano to RF because they did not trade Plouffe for a catcher instead, then the trades real ramifications will be felt. This trade, as it stands did not happen in a vacuum.

[jokin]

 

No, but it's an argument against going all-in the pot with a deficient hand, which Ryan refused to do last July.

THAT is why Ryan is working and Beane is home baby-sitting his kids.

When you haven't got good enough cards to win the pot, you don't go all-in.

You make sure you have enough chips to prevent opponents from "buying the pot" when you draw a winning hand.

 

I've never advocated foolishly going all-in. And BTW, this isn't all-or-nothing poker being played here I don't think any of the teams mentioned did that.

 

Ryan, by direct contrast, barely put his toes in the water last summer.

[jokin]

 

50 OF starts for a 4th OF means you start almost a third of your games without your optimum talent in the OF. And btw, I like Robinson as a 4th OF. As long as he remains a 4th OF.

 

Heh....

 

Amen.

[BrianTrottier]

 

here's a list of the people on this thread saying it always works out:

 

Fine. How about this: My point is that for a team in the Twins' position, there is merit to a patient approach to building your roster. It is probably a better idea for them to see what they have in their young core of players since they could be the nucleus of a World Series contender in a couple of years. Being overly aggressive could actually hurt their long term success. While they could go out and "make an impact" like the Padres did before last season, a team in the Twins' position will likely benefit from such aggressive moves much less than teams like the Royals, Mets, and Blue Jays, who were already better positioned to compete for a World Seried title going  into the 2015 (and 2016) season(s).

 

I'm also waiting for an anwer to a question I asked earlier (to the general crowd, not you in particular) about who'd be a reasonable acquisition for Hicks if not Murphy. Nothing but crickets from the crowd who has expressed strong reaction to this trade. It's hard to take arguments (if that's what you want to call them) against this trade seriously when nobody offers any ideas as to what would have been a fair trade. Saying they should have kept Hicks is fine, but they didn't. They traded him. Since they traded him, who should they have gotten in return?

[jokin]

 

 

I'm also waiting for an anwer to a question I asked earlier (to the general crowd, not you in particular) about who'd be a reasonable acquisition for Hicks if not Murphy. Nothing but crickets from the foaming-at-the-mouth crowd. It's hard to take arguments (if that's what you want to call them) against this trade seriously when nobody offers any ideas as to what would have been a fair trade. Saying they should have kept Hicks is fine, but they didn't. They traded him. Since they traded him, who should they have gotten in return?

 

You missed the part about the case that was made for standing pat and letting Hicks build more value- if- this REALLY was the best offer they could possibly get for Hicks.  I still say that pushing the Yankees on acquiring Samuel by throwing in a prospect as a counter offer would have been something Cashman might have chewed on and said yes to. 

 

The Twins main currency for making big trades has been CFers. So far, their track record using this currency has been dubious, at best- and left the team high and dry at a key spot without a legit Plan B in place. With 7 Top 100 prospects in the system, perhaps it was time to consider using the farm as currency to get a breakthrough deal?

[Platoon]

Since the title is about the perceived mediocrity of the FO I have these thoughts. You can, and I do, opine about any trade made. It depends on your view of the game. Defensive, offensive, pitching? Each philosophy clouds the view of the transaction. My issue with the FO is based more on long term results. Results that over 17 yrs are exactly the mediocrity the post refers to. It also is based on the total lack of accountability in this orginisation. 13 years of pretty much nothing lets you resign, but keep your hand on the tiller. 3 yrs of, it's actually hard to say, leaves Bill Smith with a job in the FO. And 3 more years, which culminated in chasing the much sought after 2nd WC slot unsuccessfully is considered laudatory. As is keeping a manager through 4 90+loss seasons. And spending a significant amount of payroll dollars on SP which has been somewhat south of satisfactory. And yet , unless someone has not been paying attention, Ryan will ride off into the sunset at his own time, with the platitudes and fare thee wells of the Twins ownership. To be replaced by Ryan's hand picked replacemant, Rob Anthony! Thus continuing the "Twins Way". That is in essence the true meaning of the mediocrity of not only the FO, but the ownership as well.

[BrianTrottier]

 

You missed the part about the case that was made for standing pat and letting Hicks build more value- if- this REALLY was the best offer they could possibly get for Hicks.  I still say that pushing the Yankees on acquiring Samuel by throwing in a prospect as a counter offer would have been something Cashman might have chewed on and said yes to. 

 

The Twins main currency for making big trades has been CFers. So far, their track record using this currency has been dubious, at best- and left the team high and dry at a key spot without a legit Plan B in place. With 7 Top 100 prospects in the system, perhaps it was time to consider using the farm as currency to get a breakthrough deal?

 

I didn't miss that part. I mentioned that people think they should have held on to him, and acknowledged that it's a fair enough viewpoint. But you also have to at least acknowledge that Hicks may never be more valuable to another team than he was now. He very likely won't ever be a 20/20 guy, or win a gold glove, and may not ever become a full-time starter. If that turns out to be true, then it seems to me that a young catcher who may start is a pretty good return for him. To me it's completely unwarranted to chastise Terry Ryan over "settling for mediocrity" when the guy he traded wasn't even really mediocre.

 

And regarding the Span and Revere trades: May could become a fixture in the rotation for years to come, or a shut down reliever, and the Phillies wound up flipping Revere for prospects. If those prospects flame out like most others, which the odds say they will, then it seems that the Twins came out on top of that one. Granted, the jury is still out on Meyer. Hopefully he can be salvaged and turned into a solid reliever.

[bird]

 

As I stated, the most games Shane ever started before this year was 30. "Splitting the load" with Robinson-level talent is a sure-fire lose-lose proposition- lower net WAR production + blocking young talent from further/quicker development chances.

 

 

Two questions:

 

1. Exactly what problem did Shane Robinson's meager 50 starts cause for the Twins last year?

 

2. Exactly which young talent languished in the minors last year? 

 

Two answers: 

 

1. Shane Robinson wasn't a problem worth any angst last year.

 

2. Buxton wasn't ready, and Arcia was a mess.

 

 

And the nice thing is that in 2016, Buxton will very likely be ready early and Kepler will likely be ready late. In the meantime, as posters are trying to explain, the offseason has just begun. Not sure why we have all the angst about Shane Robinson's past or virtually unknown future. 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

Two questions:

 

1. Exactly what problem did Shane Robinson's meager 50 starts cause for the Twins last year?

 

2. Exactly which young talent languished in the minors last year? 

 

Two answers: 

 

1. Shane Robinson wasn't a problem worth any angst last year.

 

2. Buxton wasn't ready, and Arcia was a mess.

 

 

And the nice thing is that in 2016, Buxton will very likely be ready early and Kepler will likely be ready late. In the meantime, as posters are trying to explain, the offseason has just begun. Not sure why we have all the angst about Shane Robinson's past or virtually unknown future. 

If the Twins had a better hitter taking Shane Robinsons at bats those 50 games it stands the reason that they may have been able to make the playoffs.
 The Twins never gave Arcia a real chance to succeed last year at the major league level.

[Vanimal46]

If the Twins had a better hitter taking Shane Robinsons at bats those 50 games it stands the reason that they may have been able to make the playoffs.

The Twins never gave Arcia a real chance to succeed last year at the major league level.

Why would they have given Arcia a chance last year? He was awful.

[bird]

 

Better to have tried and failed than to have turned off the cellphone when any call came in about a prospect. And to turn this thing back the other way, Preller didn't panic and hold a fire sale when things didn't work out as planned.

 

This is an exaggeration.

[twinsnorth49]

His current lack of trade value is the very reason why many think he was more valuable on the team, than dumping him for almost nothing, at least until Buxton is ready. Also, he was EVENTUALLY going to a 4th outfielder HERE. But, he's a starting caliber CF. To start the year here, he would be starting the CF. When you're saying "we traded a 4th outfielder," its just wrong. The Yankees got a starting CF.

 

Hicks has steadily gotten better and more consistent over a roller-coaster of production over 2-3 years years. He already extrapolates to roughly a 20/20 with very good defense given the plate appearances. Why is it any more reasonable to think that his value would decrease, rather than increase, with more playing time?

 

I don't think the guys who like this trade understand this, or just refuse to see its merit: It's not the fact that they traded him. I WANT to trade him eventually. If they were to get the same return later, fine with me. But, do it when he's actually expendable, not when his defense and speed will likely be needed to open the season with a respectable outfield defense (assuming they don't bring in a free agent). Don't just do it for the sake of doing it, because there is a perceived "log jam" (which there isn't! Two of the four players in the "jam" aren't ready for the majors, according the GM himself!)

 

It just boggles my mind that people think this move was 100% necessary, given there are about 3-4 free agents that would give the Twins solid defense at catcher, in a back-up role, for a few million bucks or less (Soto, Mathis, Navarro, Ianetta, Pena).

 

Did you see Murphy's offensive numbers while playing in that slow-pitch softball stadium in New York? Are you expecting that to translate well to TF? Because I see his offensive upside being sold around here. Realistically, he wont add any more value offensively than any of said free agents.

 

The difference: Murphy is under team control longer, and is .5-1 MIL cheaper. That's worth a potential 20/20 Center Fielder who was top 5 in Range/Game in 2015 according to Baseball Reference? That defies all things rational, IMO. It reeks of desperation. I don't care if Babe Ruth himself comes back from the grave to tell me that's the case, I'll never believe that it was beneficial to do it now, for that player.

 

In hindsight, it may be a great trade, or an awful one. I don't really care about that right now. What I do care about, is winning some games in April and May so we're not looking 5-10 games up at the Royals and Indians by the time this "log jam" comes to fruition.

I didn't say he lacked trade value, I said his value was as high as I felt it could potentially get and that moving an eventual 4th OF for young catching help now is not such a bad move. I think you overestimate Hicks, it's as simple as that.

 

And you edited that post? Whew!

[BrianTrottier]

 

If the Twins had a better hitter taking Shane Robinsons at bats those 50 games it stands the reason that they may have been able to make the playoffs.
 The Twins never gave Arcia a real chance to succeed last year at the major league level.

Because Arcia hit .199 at AAA. .199. That's under .200. Against less than major league pitching. That doesn't exactly scream "call me up."

[USAFChief]

 

Because Arcia hit .199 at AAA. .199. That's under .200. Against less than major league pitching. That doesn't exactly scream "call me up."

Which is just another argument against trading Hicks for a catcher that might or might not be any better than Suzuki.

 

 

[BrianTrottier]

 

Which is just another argument against trading Hicks for a catcher that might or might not be any better than Suzuki.

 

And equally an argument for putting Sano in the outfield (which I oppose).

[BrianTrottier]

 

Better to have tried and failed than to have turned off the cellphone when any call came in about a prospect. And to turn this thing back the other way, Preller didn't panic and hold a fire sale when things didn't work out as planned.

 

That's because it would make a GM look pretty bad to go back on all of those moves that he assured everyone would result in a contender. He dug himself into a hole. 

[jimmer]

 

Which is just another argument against trading Hicks for a catcher that might or might not be any better than Suzuki.

Even though I'm a big Span fan, I applauded Ryan for trading him for a top notch pitching prospect. Turns out it was bad execution, but I still can't really fault Ryan for it.  Getting May for Revere was great but now they are using him improperly, IMO.  Still those two Ryan trades I liked in a bubble.

 

Me not liking this trade has nothing to do with slamming Ryan and everything to do with me thinking it was a bad trade, period. I imagine I'm not alone in this.  

[mnfireman]

Arcia couldn't justify his return from an injury rehab.........if you can't hit AAA you won't hit MLB. And if you thought Robinson's 50 starts were bad (only 14 in CF), well how about Schafer's 20 (all in CF)?

 

This year was supposed to be 75-80 wins and start moving the kids in. Well they got 83 wins and the rest of the league was mediocre enough to all them to contend until the last weekend. Rebuild still on schedule, now its time to sign and to trade for to move onto the next step of the rebuild.

 

In order to make a trade for a viable player, you have to trade a viable player. Nolasco, Santana, Duensing (I know he was released/not offered arb.) and Herrmann (though he actually wound up getting a return!) are not those viable pieces. 

 

Now comes the part everybody seems to have issue with: figuring out which viable player matches the weakness of another team that has an excess of players at a position the Twins need. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The projected WAR values for each player in 2016 just don't come close to matching up, at all... This trade does not make sense for a team that we assume is in win-now mode.

First, I'll start this off by saying WAR projections are pure and utter nonsense, but...

 

Murphy is 24 years old and has a 0.8 career WAR in 284 career PAs.

 

Hicks is 26 years old and has a 1.0 career WAR in 928 career PAs.

 

Murphy had a 0.7 WAR in 2015 in 172 PAs, good for .00407 WAR per PA.

 

Hicks had a 1.5 WAR in 2015 in 390 PAs, good for .00385 WAR per PA.

 

So yeah. Murphy is younger and has a better track record. That was your point, yeah?

[h2oface]

 

3 Things.

 

1) The "Twins Way" player is a real thing with Ryan. That's why I'm thinking there's no way Plouffe is traded.

 

2) It's hard to make big moves and still fill out your team when one player is soaking up a 1/4 of your payroll. And if said player's position is forcing an infielder into a crowded outfield, someone is going to get shipped off. The dominoes are beginning to fall. The Twins aren't done shipping young assets out.Three more years. Three more years.

 

Who am I kidding with three more years? He'll get an extension.

 

3) This thread is fine. It's early, but nothing about Ryan's past suggests he's got a big deal up his sleeve.

 

The percentage of payroll is easy to fix. Just increase the payroll to the luxury tax limit, and Mauer's salary won't be such a high percentage of it. The Pohlad's are cheap. The increased payroll is not a problem for them. Seriously. I can't live in a box. Maybe Pohlad's could sell the team to Mark Cuban. Not every venture has to make money. Some can break even, especially when you have so much. Sometimes, if you really want to enjoy life, things can just be an expensive hobby.

[jimmer]

The Hicks trade was a nice money saving move.  Murphy will likely play enough to ensure Suzuki's option doesn't kick in AND we avoid arbitration money for Hicks after the 2016 season while Murphy is a couple years from it (and could be backed up more with option, I believe). It's a win win. :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So they are basically a wash defensively, Murphy is slightly better at throwing guys out, but is poor in the other aspects as per the stats

They're not a wash. Murphy was slightly in the positive in extra strikes (+5.1 in 3111 chances) according to BP and Pierzynski was well into the negative (-14.1 in 6615 chances), worse than Suzuki.

 

AJ Pierzynski is one of the worst defenders in baseball. You may have wanted him over Murphy - and I won't really argue that point - but let's call a spade a spade. AJ Pierzynski is a nearly-40 catcher who has been bad behind the dish for a very long time now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

First, I'll start this off by saying WAR projections are pure and utter nonsense, but...

 

Murphy is 24 years old and has a 0.8 career WAR in 284 career PAs.

 

Hicks is 26 years old and has a 1.0 career WAR in 928 career PAs.

 

Murphy had a 0.7 WAR in 2015 in 172 PAs, good for .00407 WAR per PA.

 

Hicks had a 1.5 WAR in 2015 in 390 PAs, good for .00385 WAR per PA.

 

So yeah. Murphy is younger and has a better track record. That was your point, yeah?

Wasn't my argument, but I suspect that projected WAR is looking at the underlying indicators (BABIP), not just past WAR (especially in small samples like Murphy's).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I do prefer Murphy to Pierzynski this week, although if we had taken a shot at a better catcher and fell back to AJ or a similar placeholder vet, that would have been okay...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wasn't my argument, but I suspect that projected WAR is looking at the underlying indicators (BABIP), not just past WAR (especially in small samples like Murphy's).

WAR projections often get the expected plate appearances wayyyyyyy off, which makes them basically useless.

 

Hicks received nearly 400 PAs last season. Murphy didn't even hit 180.

 

Hell, Steamer has Murphy projected for one PA in 2016. Lulz.

 

Also, it's a bit odd to hold Murphy's crazy BABIP against him but not Hicks' extreme outlier month.

 

The two players are something close to a wash in past performance. If someone wants to argue Hicks is a potential breakout, that's a fair argument... But that argument is based on hopes and wishes, not actual statistics... So it's best to leave the statistics at home for this one.

[bird]

 

If the Twins had a better hitter taking Shane Robinsons at bats those 50 games it stands the reason that they may have been able to make the playoffs.
 The Twins never gave Arcia a real chance to succeed last year at the major league level.

 

Or, alternatively, with you as the GM, Arcia would've been given the chance he so richly deserved. Projecting his AAA numbers onto 50 games with the Twins? We'd have been inhaling the fumes from Detroit and Chicago as they zipped past us in the standings. 

[sane]

 

I've never advocated foolishly going all-in. And BTW, this isn't all-or-nothing poker being played here I don't think any of the teams mentioned did that.

 

Ryan, by direct contrast, barely put his toes in the water last summer.

Which is exactly what I wanted him to do. Save his talent for when the Twins are REALLY are competitive!

[jimmer]

 

Which is exactly what I wanted him to do. Save his talent for when the Twins are REALLY are competitive!

When will that be exactly?  A couple years ago, many were saying this year.