Article: The Trade Market For Trevor Plouffe

[DJL44]

If I read conspiracy-theorist into recent moves I conclude that the Angels didn't give a qualifying offer to Freese because they already had a deal for Plouffe in place.

 

I would be disappointed if it was just one reliever for Plouffe but the last time the Twins had a Bedrosian on the roster they all got shiny rings.

[jimmer]

I hated it when the Twins drafted Plouffe and it took forever for him to make the show.  It seemed like the only reason he did finally make it was because he was out of options and because he was a former 1st round pick (and even then it was between him and Luke Hughes).  

 

I think part of the problem was that the Twins didn't see the fact that shortstop wasn't going to work for him a long time ago.  Since being moved to 3rd base he has worked very hard and has become a solid player offensively and defensively.  Whether he stays here or not, I hope he continues to get better.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would be disappointed if it was just one reliever for Plouffe but the last time the Twins had a Bedrosian on the roster they all got shiny rings.

The very same month that this new Bedrosian was born!

[brvama]

It's really a case of numbers. If as kab says there are 20 teams set at 3B, so that leaves 10 that aren't. That seems to be a substantial number. Now, Plouffes real value comes from his positioning of those teams available 3Bmen, and to a certain extant some teams that seem to be set. If he's in the top 20 of all ML 3B, then he has, should have, good value to at least 10 clubs.

 

The question of value comes in the form of: Does Plouffe improve any teams 3B? And that will vary among teams. So we really have to look at teams individually to see what "market" is there. Only through negotiations will a value be established. My gut feeling is that he has decent value to a several clubs,

[TheLeviathan]

 

And nobody is saying that Plouffe isn't valuable on the trade market.  He doesn't have a lot of demand because very few teams are shopping for a 3B.  That does affect his trade value in the short term though.

 

I don't understand why anyone would be arguing then.  If Plouffe is indeed valuable, then let's explore that value while it makes sense for a host of reasons.

 

That's all anyone has ever said about it.  If you can get approximate value in the form of a young player or a position of need for Plouffe in a trade, there a great many good reasons to do so.

 

And things don't always work like "X teams need 3B and Y teams don't", we see all the time that teams find ways to make things work if what they need is more like "RH power hitting corner infielder"  Many of you are intentionally limiting the market to make your point, when the truth is that it's hard to always tell what the market is for a player with some versatility and a clear skill set.  

[Winston Smith]

My guess is the Astros, he fits into their MO. They also have a bunch of young pitching.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

Maybe I'm missing something obvious here, but is the Angels are interested, why is nobody talking Taylor Ward? Would he take a lot more than Plouffe?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If I read conspiracy-theorist into recent moves I conclude that the Angels didn't give a qualifying offer to Freese because they already had a deal for Plouffe in place.

My guess is that the Angels wanted to explore other options, with no risk of being locked into Freese and to not give Freese any expectations about AAV.

 

From 2012-2014, 34 players received a qualifying offer, and only 8 times has the player re-signed with their former team that same winter.

 

2012 (QO $13.1 mil):

LaRoche 2/24

Ortiz 2/26 (in leui of rejecting the offer)

Kuroda 1/15

 

2013 (QO $14.1 mil):

Kuroda again 1/16

Napoli 2/32

Drew 1/14.1 (prorated)

 

2014 (QO $15.3 mil):

Martinez 4/68

Liriano 3/39

 

As qualifying offers multiply this might change, but I get the impression that the QO, even when rejected, acts as a reference point for these guys much like previous year's salary, and they'd have to sacrifice some pride to re-sign for notably less with the same club.

 

So a rejected QO, while it would have hurt Freese's value to attach the draft pick, it would have probably made it more difficult for the Angels to snag him for 1/10 or 2/20, which seems like a reasonable fallback should their other 3B options fall through.

[kab21]

 

I don't understand why anyone would be arguing then.  If Plouffe is indeed valuable, then let's explore that value while it makes sense for a host of reasons.

 

That's all anyone has ever said about it.  If you can get approximate value in the form of a young player or a position of need for Plouffe in a trade, there a great many good reasons to do so.

 

And things don't always work like "X teams need 3B and Y teams don't", we see all the time that teams find ways to make things work if what they need is more like "RH power hitting corner infielder"  Many of you are intentionally limiting the market to make your point, when the truth is that it's hard to always tell what the market is for a player with some versatility and a clear skill set.  

Why doesn't 'X teams need 3B and Y teams don't' work?  3B is a really deep position with a lot of solid players.

 

I am not intentionally limiting anything to make a point.  I am actually looking at the market to make a point.  I don't think anyone else is.  I am being realistic about the teams that are interested in a veteran 3B. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Maybe I'm missing something obvious here, but is the Angels are interested, why is nobody talking Taylor Ward? Would he take a lot more than Plouffe?

I don't think he (Ward) would be enough.  He was taken in the first round but signed at a discount.  He came up a few times as a possible pick for us at 73.  MLBpipeline ranked him #99 in their top 200 for the draft.  He's seen as a defense first catcher with a limited bat.  Most likely a backup.  Here's the pipeline write up on him - 

 

"Ward, who served as a backup on USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team over the summer, is primarily a catch-and-throw guy. He has tremendous arm strength and has worked to improve his release time to get the ball down to second even faster. His other defensive skills aren't as advanced as his arm, but he has the tools to be a quality all-around receiver. While he's hit some in college, his offensive game does lag behind his defense at this point, though he'll flash glimpses of some pull power. He is athletic and runs well for a catcher. Ward has the behind-the-plate skills to at least be a strong Major League backup. The team that takes him early will be the one that thinks he'll hit enough to be a regular backstop at the highest level."

[T.C.]

 

If I read conspiracy-theorist into recent moves I conclude that the Angels didn't give a qualifying offer to Freese because they already had a deal for Plouffe in place.

 

I would be disappointed if it was just one reliever for Plouffe but the last time the Twins had a Bedrosian on the roster they all got shiny rings.

I've heard the Angels didn't give Freese a QO because they want to sign him long term. They felt that offering a QO would make him bitter about the potential impact the draft pick would have on his market. Not sure if I completely understand the logic but that's what I've heard.

[kab21]

 

 

It's really a case of numbers. If as kab says there are 20 teams set at 3B, so that leaves 10 that aren't. That seems to be a substantial number. Now, Plouffes real value comes from his positioning of those teams available 3Bmen, and to a certain extant some teams that seem to be set. If he's in the top 20 of all ML 3B, then he has, should have, good value to at least 10 clubs.

The question of value comes in the form of: Does Plouffe improve any teams 3B? And that will vary among teams. So we really have to look at teams individually to see what "market" is there. Only through negotiations will a value be established. My gut feeling is that he has decent value to a several clubs,

Very few of those 10 teams (just a guess on the exact number since it has been awhile since I looked at the teams) are competitive next season.  Rebuilding teams don't trade for 29 yr olds with 2 years of arb left.  For example the Braves and Brewers have been mentioned as possible destinations.  they lost 94 and 95 games last year and have given every indication that they are rebuilding.  Trading prospects for a veteran makes no sense for them.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why doesn't 'X teams need 3B and Y teams don't' work?  3B is a really deep position with a lot of solid players.

 

I am not intentionally limiting anything to make a point.  I am actually looking at the market to make a point.  I don't think anyone else is.  I am being realistic about the teams that are interested in a veteran 3B. 

 

Because a player like Plouffe can check a lot of boxes for a team.  Including multiple positions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's really a case of numbers. If as kab says there are 20 teams set at 3B, so that leaves 10 that aren't. That seems to be a substantial number. Now, Plouffes real value comes from his positioning of those teams available 3Bmen, and to a certain extant some teams that seem to be set. If he's in the top 20 of all ML 3B, then he has, should have, good value to at least 10 clubs.

The question of value comes in the form of: Does Plouffe improve any teams 3B? And that will vary among teams. So we really have to look at teams individually to see what "market" is there. Only through negotiations will a value be established. My gut feeling is that he has decent value to a several clubs,

It's not that easy.  The 10 teams that aren't set at 3B include the Brewers, Phillies, and Braves.  They may not really care about getting "set" at that position for the next two years at the cost of ~$16 mil salary plus whatever talent they have to surrender in trade.

 

For a few more like the Padres and Diamondbacks, the improvement of Plouffe over internal options might be marginal.  For a few others, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, etc., they're already committed to other 3B.

 

And 2-3 more of the teams considered "not set" are in the same division as the Twins, which might add another layer of reluctance to part with talent to get him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Because a player like Plouffe can check a lot of boxes for a team.  Including multiple positions.

Despite having recently played the position, Plouffe is absolutely not checking anyone's 1B box.  He's got a career and 2015 OPS+ of 99, and a peak of 110.

 

I think looking team-by-team at 3B will show you if there are any clubs where a good hitting 3B could be shifted to cover a hole elsewhere and make room for Plouffe... although the best example of that might be Plouffe's current team.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Despite having recently played the position, Plouffe is absolutely not checking anyone's 1B box.  He's got a career and 2015 OPS+ of 99, and a peak of 110.

 

I think looking team-by-team at 3B will show you if there are any clubs where a good hitting 3B could be shifted to cover a hole elsewhere and make room for Plouffe... although the best example of that might be Plouffe's current team.  

 

That's not your call.  Baseball GMs do all sorts of things that are hardly predictable or logical.  They may see him as a 1B or as a rotation between DH and another position.

 

You don't know that perception.  You can't know it.  Neither do I.  All I'm suggesting is that his profile and contributions lend to a player that could inspire interest.  And it should be explored.  The Twins have good reasons to explore it, so I'm hoping they do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've heard the Angels didn't give Freese a QO because they want to sign him long term. They felt that offering a QO would make him bitter about the potential impact the draft pick would have on his market. Not sure if I completely understand the logic but that's what I've heard.

See my post above.  I think the QO is considered almost like the previous year's salary in negotiations with the current team.

 

Like Morneau a couple years ago, after he made $14 mil for the Twins, while that salary was no longer binding, I think we were going to have a tougher time signing him to a ~$6 mil contract than other clubs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's not your call.  Baseball GMs do all sorts of things that are hardly predictable or logical.  They may see him as a 1B or as a rotation between DH and another position.

 

You don't know that perception.  You can't know it.  Neither do I.  All I'm suggesting is that his profile and contributions lend to a player that could inspire interest.  And it should be explored.  The Twins have good reasons to explore it, so I'm hoping they do.

Not sure quite how to respond to this.

 

I will say that Plouffe seems like precisely the kind of solid player that wouldn't "inspire" anyone to do something unpredictable or illogical.  He doesn't have the youth or one standout skill or stat that GMs often like to project upon, and there really isn't much of a case for him being versatile defensively anymore if there ever was one (even in 2015 he only served as the backup 1B when Vargas wasn't on the roster).

[brvama]

There are those that feel Plouffe has no, or very little, market value and those that feel he does. I'm not sure reading these posts there are many that are in the undecided catagory. I happen to believe he does. We shall see as the off-season unfolds.

[Trevor0333]

I would want a higher end type RP than Bedrosian for Plouffe, I don't see that in the Angels system really. Bedrosian & 3B Kyle Kubitza makes more sense value wise. Kyle is AAA insurance if Sano at 3B goes terrible bad & is not a bad prospect on his own.

[Trevor0333]

 

There are those that feel Plouffe has no, or very little, market value and those that feel he does. I'm not sure reading these posts there are many that are in the undecided catagory. I happen to believe he does. We shall see as the off-season unfolds.

 

With David Freese as the only available FA 3B, Plouffe is at the top of the market and under 2 years control. If Ryan can get JR Murphy, & Palko for Hicks & Hermann I'd be shocked not to get a solid prospect at a position of need roster wise.

 

Its not as easy as just combining players/prospects with Plouffe to get more value than some think.

[brvama]

Trevor I totally agree.

[ashbury]

I would want a higher end type RP than Bedrosian for Plouffe, I don't see that in the Angels system really. Bedrosian & 3B Kyle Kubitza makes more sense value wise. Kyle is AAA insurance if Sano at 3B goes terrible bad & is not a bad prospect on his own.

Kubitza is old enough that it strikes me either the Angels would rather just put him at third and not have to give up a relief pitcher, or else he's not good enough for the Twins to want to trade for.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not sure quite how to respond to this.

 

I will say that Plouffe seems like precisely the kind of solid player that wouldn't "inspire" anyone to do something unpredictable or illogical.  He doesn't have the youth or one standout skill or stat that GMs often like to project upon, and there really isn't much of a case for him being versatile defensively anymore if there ever was one (even in 2015 he only served as the backup 1B when Vargas wasn't on the roster).

 

He's a good fielder who hits for power, those aren't enormously abundant.

[kab21]

 

He's a good fielder who hits for power, those aren't enormously abundant.

That value is tied to him being a 3B though.  he doesn't check any other boxes for teams as a primary choice.  Nobody is giving up something valuable to put him at 1B or DH.  It is nice that he can play there but there is a huge value difference between 3B and DH for a guy like Plouffe.

 

Zobrist (or even Daniel Murphy) is a guy that can check multiple boxes for a team.  And both of those guys are also FA's.  Todd Frazier almost certainly has to be on the block.  the Rangers have a top prospect to dangle as trade bait.  The few teams that are looking for a 3B have several option besides Plouffe.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nobody is giving up something valuable to put him at 1B or DH.

They will if they do something unpredictable and illogical! TR should absolutely be calling other teams and soliciting their most unpredictable and illogical offers for Plouffe, on that I think we can all agree.

Edited November 12, 2015 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Todd Frazier almost certainly has to be on the block.

That is the latest report, yet:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/reds-trades-todd-frazier-chapman.html

 

 

The availability of Chapman and Bruce has been widely expected, but Rosenthal further tweets that the Reds will even be open-minded on third baseman and reigning Home Run Derby champion Todd Frazier, who is under control for two more seasons.

 

[sane]

With David Freese as the only available FA 3B, Plouffe is at the top of the market

Look at the teams who may think Plouffe is an upgrade to their current 3B.

There aren't very many.

Most teams are already happy with their current 3B, and that is one of the reason for the shortage of 3B on the FA list.

[Trevor0333]

What if you could get the Angels to take on Nolasco in a trade for Plouffe.

 

Plouffe & Nolasco for Trevor Gott & Cam Bedrosian?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Or even Bedrosian and Victor Alcantara. Huge upside arm who hasn't pitched much about low A, but he did throw in the futures game. Would that be too much for Plouffe back? We would get a potentially good late inning arm, and a high upside prospect arm to start at Fort Myers and see where it goes.