Lucroy Available

[kab21]

 

I would be shocked if Sanchez is truly available at this stage

I don't think he is on the block but I think if the Twins offered Dozier for him and a 2nd lesser prospect they would make him available in a hurry.

 

But the bigger point is that it is convenient to pick apart Lucroy but that likely means that the Twins roll into 2016 with a Suzuki/AJ platoon at best.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is Sanchez expected to stick at catcher now?  Or is he Jesus Montero Lite (no weight joke intended )?

[stringer bell]

I am of the opinion that the Twins can start their run of serious contention in 2016 and so I think they should get an established player, not a prospect. Get Lucroy, not a guy who might be ready in 2017 or 2018.

[tellis205]

The Twins are looking for a good young blocked catcher.  And be prepared to part with 

some talent to get him.  

[tobi0040]

 

I am of the opinion that the Twins can start their run of serious contention in 2016 and so I think they should get an established player, not a prospect. Get Lucroy, not a guy who might be ready in 2017 or 2018.

 

The reality is if we trade for a young, talented catcher he is "mentored" by Suzuki, who plays 130 games and puts up a .550 OPS because the young guy is "not ready defensively".

 

I would argue Suzuki is "not ready offensively"

[dxpavelka]

 

Also important to keep in mind that he suffered the concussion about 9/10, it was diagnosed as a mild one.  He started playing 14 days later, primarily as a pinch hitter.  He went 5 for 13 the rest of the year (.417 average).  I think we are all thinking Morneau/Mauer type concussions here.  From memory, those guys did not play anywhere near two weeks later.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/specialist-confirms-jonathan-lucroy-suffered-concussion-b99573948z1-327152771.html

Also a guy who declined significantly both offensively & defensively before the concussion as well.  I'm looking for guys headed in the other direction.

[dgwills]

 

Also a guy who declined significantly both offensively & defensively before the concussion as well.  I'm looking for guys headed in the other direction.

That decline could be easily attributed to the broken toe he suffered 15 days into the season. Really if he did not have the bad year it would be way to expensive to get Lucroy. 

[dxpavelka]

 

That decline could be easily attributed to the broken toe he suffered 15 days into the season. Really if he did not have the bad year it would be way to expensive to get Lucroy. 

OR it could be that he's a 30 year old catcher.  We all know those guys are good for at least half a season.  See:  Suzuki, Kurt.  Whaddya think?  3 or 4 year contract?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

OR it could be that he's a 30 year old catcher.  We all know those guys are good for at least half a season.  See:  Suzuki, Kurt.  Whaddya think?  3 or 4 year contract?

Not all 30 year catchers are equal.  Lucroy has a 109 career OPS+ entering his age 30 season, peak of 132 at age 28 (last year).  Suzuki at the same age, 86 career OPS+ with a peak of 98 at age 23.

 

Lucroy could have a relative falloff similar to Suzuki and still be a very worthwhile upgrade at the catcher position the next several years.

[USAFChief]

 

OR it could be that he's a 30 year old catcher.  We all know those guys are good for at least half a season.  See:  Suzuki, Kurt.  Whaddya think?  3 or 4 year contract?

So what's your plan for catcher?

 

Stick with Zuke and hope?

[Major League Ready]

 

I would be shocked if Sanchez is truly available at this stag.

Why would you be shocked?  McCann is signed for 3 more years plus a vesting option in 2014.  They could trade him and keep McCann but that would be more "shocking" given we are talking about the Yankees.

[Trevor0333]

Molitor loves Gibson, the Twins aren't moving him. I wouldn't trade him for Lucroy straight up. The Twins aren't trading from their young core already established with the team.

 

The Brewers have struggled to develop a 2B, Polanco with Dozier in front of him is a nice starting point. Polanco, Arcia & Tonkin type is as high as I'd go though.

 

Lucroy bridges the gap well to Turner/Navaretto/Garver options. He's worth giving value for, just not Gibson, May, Berrios, Duffy, Stewart. Kepler is untouchable IMO.

[DaveW]

Kepler is untouchable yet Berrios isn't?

Gibson isn't worth Lucroy straight up? Sorry I disagree heavily with both of those statements.

[DaveW]

Why would you be shocked? McCann is signed for 3 more years plus a vesting option in 2014. They could trade him and keep McCann but that would be more "shocking" given we are talking about the Yankees.

the Yankees have been holding onto top prospects much more as of late, the price of Sanchez would likely be too high (Berrios) for the deal to happen this off season. Yanks are in no rush to get rid of him anyways.

[stringer bell]

Pitching is the coin of the realm IMHO. I don't think the Twins should give up any pitchers unless they get comparable talent in return. An established front-line catcher with a very team-friendly contract is worth quite a bit. I speculated during the season that it would take three prospects in the top 6-10, perhaps a pitcher and a position player along with Arcia.  I still think that is about the right price for Lucroy.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Pitching is the coin of the realm IMHO. I don't think the Twins should give up any pitchers unless they get comparable talent in return. An established front-line catcher with a very team-friendly contract is worth quite a bit. I speculated during the season that it would take three prospects in the top 6-10, perhaps a pitcher and a position player along with Arcia.  I still think that is about the right price for Lucroy.

I think you're pretty close on your estimate for Lucroy.  It's pretty typical here for folks to over-estimate the value of what the Twins have and kinda nitpick those on the market.  I do think that's too many player.  3 MiLB [that would include Arcia] prospects plus a pitcher or position player may be closer to what I'd be willing to do.  Then backup my pickup truck with a boat load of money for Lucroy.

 

Amendment:  I looked at Seth's 6-10 again.  I'd be a little leery of including 3 of them, as the Twins have a long history of building internally.  Then again, how many times do you have the opportunity to get a Lucroy?

[dxpavelka]

 

Not all 30 year catchers are equal.  Lucroy has a 109 career OPS+ entering his age 30 season, peak of 132 at age 28 (last year).  Suzuki at the same age, 86 career OPS+ with a peak of 98 at age 23.

 

Lucroy could have a relative falloff similar to Suzuki and still be a very worthwhile upgrade at the catcher position the next several years.

COULD.  And he could already be a year into it.

[dxpavelka]

 

So what's your plan for catcher?

 

Stick with Zuke and hope?

Didn't say I had a plan.  Just saying all the blind optimism regarding LuCroy may be misguided.

[Mike Sixel]

Who has "blind optimism" on this thread? 

[stringer bell]

 

COULD.  And he could already be a year into it.

Lucroy suffered two injuries, a broken toe early and a concussion in September. It took him a while to recover from the toe injury and he picked up well late into the season until he had the concussion. Not exactly the look of a player in decline. Injuries are a concern, but this is a Top Ten catcher in baseball and he's 29 for almost half of the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

COULD.  And he could already be a year into it.

If he was already a year into it, and the relative decline was similar to that of Suzuki (who, outside of his 2014 comeback, experienced only one significant overall offensive performance drop-off), that would mean Lucroy projects as an above league average catcher for the next couple seasons, and likely a notable upgrade at the position for the Twins.

 

Also, any number of performance levels COULD be possible for any player.  The question for the Twins is: is the likelihood of Lucroy's performance dropping further greater than the likelihood that our catcher position continues to hurt an otherwise competitive team?  Naysaying about a potential upgrade is pointless unless you claim that there is an equal or better upgrade available or that an upgrade isn't necessary.

[SwainZag]

Brewers fansite article on a Lucroy - Kepler swap.

 

http://reviewingthebrew.com/2015/10/31/milwaukee-brewers-should-target-max-kepler-from-twins/

[TheLeviathan]

 

Brewers fansite article on a Lucroy - Kepler swap.

 

http://reviewingthebrew.com/2015/10/31/milwaukee-brewers-should-target-max-kepler-from-twins/

 

I LOVE Kepler...but this would be the basis of a trade I'd do in a heartbeat.

[dxpavelka]

 

Lucroy suffered two injuries, a broken toe early and a concussion in September. It took him a while to recover from the toe injury and he picked up well late into the season until he had the concussion. Not exactly the look of a player in decline. Injuries are a concern, but this is a Top Ten catcher in baseball and he's 29 for almost half of the season.

If I could be convinced he'd be a top 10 catcher in the future, while wearing a Twins uniform, I'd be in--IF I the cost wasn't too high.  The fact that he WAS a top 10 catcher does nothing for me unless he's able to do the same thing here.  Big IF!!!!

 

[Major League Ready]

If the Twins were an aging team with a couple year window, it MIGHT make sense to trade 2 years if Lucroy for six years of Kepler.  That’s not the case.  There is some pretty biased optimism in terms of the Twins readiness to contend.  If contend means compete for a wildcard they likely are ready next year with an upgrade at Catcher and the bullpen.  If contend means a division title and winning playoff series they still have a ways to go.

Nolasco is a huge question mark.  Hughes is a big question mark and Santana has always been inconsistent and therefore a question mark.    Duffey seems pretty likely to succeed in a starting role but he has a ways to go to be “proven”.   Will Berrios come into the league and dominate from the time he arrives?  Will Hicks continue to improve?  Will Rosario learn some plate discipline?  If not, he is never going to be above average.  When will Buxton start to hit ML pitching?  That’s not the whole list but you get the idea. 

 

Giving up 6 years of Kepler (and probably more) for 2 years of Lucroy at this point is short-sighted. How much better off will be if Lucroy is here instead of Kepler and whomever they get as a catcher vs trading Kepler for Lucroy.  What we know for sure is that we won’t have Kepler (entering his 3rd year) for 2018-21 when this team will have matured and hopefully a real contender ala Kansas City.  This is the kind of move that perpetuates mediocrity. 

 

Polanco is rated higher on the boards I checked.  This seems like a good trade for both teams.   I don’t know if it would fly but I would much rather trade Polanco for Sanchez and have the position covered for the next 6 years.

[dxpavelka]

 

If he was already a year into it, and the relative decline was similar to that of Suzuki (who, outside of his 2014 comeback, experienced only one significant overall offensive performance drop-off), that would mean Lucroy projects as an above league average catcher for the next couple seasons, and likely a notable upgrade at the position for the Twins.

 

Also, any number of performance levels COULD be possible for any player.  The question for the Twins is: is the likelihood of Lucroy's performance dropping further greater than the likelihood that our catcher position continues to hurt an otherwise competitive team?  Naysaying about a potential upgrade is pointless unless you claim that there is an equal or better upgrade available or that an upgrade isn't necessary.

Still wouldn't give up much for a 30 year old catcher who MIGHT PROJECT to above league average.  I'd much rather have a 25 year old catcher who MIGHT PROJECT to be above league average.

[dxpavelka]

 

If the Twins were an aging team with a couple year window, it MIGHT make sense to trade 2 years if Lucroy for six years of Kepler.  That’s not the case.  There is some pretty biased optimism in terms of the Twins readiness to contend.  If contend means compete for a wildcard they likely are ready next year with an upgrade at Catcher and the bullpen.  If contend means a division title and winning playoff series they still have a ways to go.

Nolasco is a huge question mark.  Hughes is a big question mark and Santana has always been inconsistent and therefore a question mark.    Duffey seems pretty likely to succeed in a starting role but he has a ways to go to be “proven”.   Will Berrios come into the league and dominate from the time he arrives?  Will Hicks continue to improve?  Will Rosario learn some plate discipline?  If not, he is never going to be above average.  When will Buxton start to hit ML pitching?  That’s not the whole list but you get the idea. 

 

Giving up 6 years of Kepler (and probably more) for 2 years of Lucroy at this point is short-sighted. How much better off will be if Lucroy is here instead of Kepler and whomever they get as a catcher vs trading Kepler for Lucroy.  What we know for sure is that we won’t have Kepler (entering his 3rd year) for 2018-21 when this team will have matured and hopefully a real contender ala Kansas City.  This is the kind of move that perpetuates mediocrity. 

 

Polanco is rated higher on the boards I checked.  This seems like a good trade for both teams.   I don’t know if it would fly but I would much rather trade Polanco for Sanchez and have the position covered for the next 6 years.

Folks think I'm crazy but if we're going to consider trading Kepler for a catcher I'd just make him the only left handed throwing German born catcher in the game and let the chips fall where they may.  Couldn't be any worse defensively than Pinto.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If I could be convinced he'd be a top 10 catcher in the future, while wearing a Twins uniform, I'd be in--IF I the cost wasn't too high.  The fact that he WAS a top 10 catcher does nothing for me unless he's able to do the same thing here.  Big IF!!!!

Translation: "I only want him if he's perfect, but priced as if he's flawed."  Got it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Still wouldn't give up much for a 30 year old catcher who MIGHT PROJECT to above league average.  I'd much rather have a 25 year old catcher who MIGHT PROJECT to be above league average.

Who is this 25 year old catcher you speak of?  If the Twins had a younger player with an equal projection to Lucroy we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[Vanimal46]

 

Still wouldn't give up much for a 30 year old catcher who MIGHT PROJECT to above league average.  I'd much rather have a 25 year old catcher who MIGHT PROJECT to be above league average.

 

Let us know what 25 and under catchers are made publicly available in a trade. If there are, hopefully you're on board to offer up Kepler or Gordon + others to obtain that C.