Lucroy Available

[Thrylos]

I'd trade them Pinto 1-1.  About fair value there.  if they didn't want it, I'd add Navaretto or Turner.

 

Nothing more (unless they want Nolasco, Fien, or Milone ).  LuCroy is about as much of a gamble as Pinto is, he is just a bit better fielder.

[shs_59]

About a Month ago, I outlined my ideal and potential Twins' off-season  :

 

here goes another rundown of the condensed version .

 

 

This upcoming Winter meetings 2016:  Twins Trade Eduardo Nunez and LHP Mason Melotakis

 

to the Chicago cubs for OF/2B Chris Coghlan   (the guy gets on base, the Twins need OB% types, has 1 more year left of arbitration/ control)

 

In Late winter/ early spring the Twins trade Ricky Nolasco (+1/2 the remainning salary) , Oswaldo Arcia , Josmil Pinto, and a ptbl to the Milwaukee Brewers

For

Catcher Jonathan LuCroy

 

(brewers fill out a back-end rotation spot for only 6 Million a year for 2 years of Nolasco, and Pair Orlando Arcia with his older brother Oswaldo)

 

During the season the trade deadline of 2016 the Twins will trade Tommy Millone and A.B. Walker to the Chicago White Sox for Lefty Jose Quintana

 

my 2016 stretch run to post-season  will look like:

 

Byron Buxton - CF  (spent the first 3 months of 2016 in AAA)

Aaron Hicks  -- CF/RF (shifts over)

Joe Mauer  --- 1B

Miguel Sano -- 3B/DH

Eddie Rosario -- LF

Jonathan LuCroy -- C

Brian Dozier   --- 2B

Chris Coghlan --- DH/ Utility

Jorge Polanco/ Eduardo Escobar ---SS

 

leaving:::  Kurt Suzuki, Trevor Plouffe , Danny Santana, Kenny Vargas, and potentially Max Kepler all on the bench.

[kab21]

It is easy to say that the Brewers are not going to be competitive in the next two but they would rather play Lucroy (and rebuild his value) rather than take some (most) of these offers for fading prospects.  I would be surprised if you could get a deal done without including someone like Duffey, May, Kepler or Polanco.

 

It is a risk to acquire a catcher with a concussion history but there is a lot of upside in the deal.  And I am not talking about another 6.1 WAR season.  3.5 WAR (somehow dismissed above in the thread) would have been the 3rd highest catcher WAR last season.

 

In addition to that you definitely keep Suzuki even if you acquire Lucroy.  During the regular season you only catch Lucroy 4 times/wk with 1 game at DH.  Assuming the Twins can get to the playoffs then you catch him everyday (a lot of off days anyway).

 

Plouffe really only enters into talks as a piece in a 2nd trade for prospects.  Nolasco doesn't enter in at all.  If Nolasco is a piece then the Twins need to send better prospects (no thanks) and the Brewers are not a high payroll team (not taking any salary happily) that wants a broken vet occupying developmental spots.

[tobi0040]

 

About a Month ago, I outlined my ideal and potential Twins' off-season  :

 

here goes another rundown of the condensed version .

 

 

This upcoming Winter meetings 2016:  Twins Trade Eduardo Nunez and LHP Mason Melotakis

 

to the Chicago cubs for OF/2B Chris Coghlan   (the guy gets on base, the Twins need OB% types, has 1 more year left of arbitration/ control)

 

In Late winter/ early spring the Twins trade Ricky Nolasco (+1/2 the remainning salary) , Oswaldo Arcia , Josmil Pinto, and a ptbl to the Milwaukee Brewers

For

Catcher Jonathan LuCroy

 

(brewers fill out a back-end rotation spot for only 6 Million a year for 2 years of Nolasco, and Pair Orlando Arcia with his older brother Oswaldo)

 

During the season the trade deadline of 2016 the Twins will trade Tommy Millone and A.B. Walker to the Chicago White Sox for Lefty Jose Quintana

 

my 2016 stretch run to post-season  will look like:

 

Byron Buxton - CF  (spent the first 3 months of 2016 in AAA)

Aaron Hicks  -- CF/RF (shifts over)

Joe Mauer  --- 1B

Miguel Sano -- 3B/DH

Eddie Rosario -- LF

Jonathan LuCroy -- C

Brian Dozier   --- 2B

Chris Coghlan --- DH/ Utility

Jorge Polanco/ Eduardo Escobar ---SS

 

leaving:::  Kurt Suzuki, Trevor Plouffe , Danny Santana, Kenny Vargas, and potentially Max Kepler all on the bench.

 

These trades are really unreasonable.

 

Lucroy is an above average catcher making peanuts the next two years.  We are not getting him for Nolasco, Arcia, and Pinto.   Arcia and Pinto could not make our team and Nolasco, despite every opportunity is pitching like a guy in single A and makes $12M a year.

 

I think we should just assume, if the Twins could have moved Nolasco for free to any of the 29 teams, he would have already been moved.  We are not holding him because we think he will be good.  We are stuck with him.

[DaveW]

Gibson and a low minor leaguer for Lucroy straight up it is!

[Cory Engelhardt]

• How about Rosario and Gibson for Lucroy and Will Smith? At least as the start of a package. I don't know if they would need more, but Lucroy is a stud that Milwaukee doesn't NEED to trade.

[Willihammer]

Some of these price tags seem a little high. Lucroy is a nice player but he's probably not going to be that special in his age 30-31 seasons. Compare him to Denard Span for example, who had accumulated more WAR in fewer games, was a year younger, played a premium defensive position, had the same concussion concern, and was under control for 3 years (as opposed to two) and was traded for a single top ~75 prospect in A ball. Shouldn't Lucroy's price tag be comparable to that?

[Vanimal46]

Some of these price tags seem a little high. Lucroy is a nice player but he's probably not going to be that special in his age 30-31 seasons. Compare him to Denard Span for example, who had accumulated more WAR in fewer games, had the same concussion concern, and was under control for 3 years (as opposed to two) and was traded for a single top ~75 prospect in A ball. Shouldn't Lucroy's price tag be comparable to that?

No. It's merely the difference in positions they play. Plenty of OF out there to trade for. Catchers as we all know are pretty scarce to find.

[Willihammer]

 

No. It's merely the difference in positions they play. Plenty of OF out there to trade for. Catchers as we all know are pretty scarce to find.

I get that. But 29 y/o CFers don't grow on trees either. And Span was coming off a 5 WAR season (as opposed to 1.5), had more team control, was younger, etc. Seems like maybe people are overcompensating for the unrealistic Duensing for Chapman wishful thinking type trades.

[Mike Sixel]

I think you could get him for Stewart and another minor league player not in the top 10. IF the Twins were relatively confident of his health, I'd consider that. But, I don't know much about Stewart other than his stats. Maybe those are somehow misleading, and he still looks potentially elite.

[Willihammer]

 

I think you could get him for Stewart and another minor league player not in the top 10. IF the Twins were relatively confident of his health, I'd consider that. But, I don't know much about Stewart other than his stats. Maybe those are somehow misleading, and he still looks potentially elite.

That seems more reasonable IMO, and definitely one I would be in favor of.

[USAFChief]

I think you could get him for Stewart and another minor league player not in the top 10. IF the Twins were relatively confident of his health, I'd consider that. But, I don't know much about Stewart other than his stats. Maybe those are somehow misleading, and he still looks potentially elite.

Said the same yesterday.

 

Stewart seems like a natural starting point in a trade discussion.

[dxpavelka]

 

Catcher vs. 1B. And that 1B is being crucified by some because he makes $23M a year.

Still not a significant enough upgrade to want to give away elite pieces.

[Mike Sixel]

Still not a significant enough upgrade to want to give away elite pieces.

Did you just argue that Lucroy is not a massive upgrade on Suzuki? Is that based on what you expect from them in the next 2-3 years, or the past? If you are basing it on the future, is that the concussion, or something else?

[dxpavelka]

 

I don't think we'll get Lucroy but everyone who does expects that he'll perform closer to his career numbers than the numbers he put up last year in an injury plagued season.  Lucroy could still be an all-star type at catcher while Mauer will not be one anymore.

I have no reason to believe that a 30 year old catcher is any more likely to perform closer to his career numbers than a 32 year old 1B is.

[dxpavelka]

 

Because there's a good chance he's not a 700 OPS guy, and he's a good defensive catcher?

Good point.  There's also a chance he's a 30 year old catcher with concussion issues who is a .650 OPS guy.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no reason to believe that a 30 year old catcher is any more likely to perform closer to his career numbers than a 32 year old 1B is.

that answered my question also, thanks!

 

Not sure I agree, but I understand why someone would feel that way. Not sure how to fix catcher, if there are none in FA, and we can't trade for one.....

[dxpavelka]

 

That .717 is Lucroy at his worst. Mostly it was driven by injury. Usually he is .800+ OPS guy and one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. There are very few catchers who can do this in MLB today . The upgrade from the Twins catchers who have a OPS of below .600 would be huge. The median OPS for a 1B by contrast would be around .830, so .718 would be significantly below average and this was in a season where Mauer had no major injuries.

Injury & concussion issues in 30 year old catchers tend to NOT go away.  See:  Mauer, Joe.

[dxpavelka]

 

Did you just argue that Lucroy is not a massive upgrade on Suzuki? Is that based on what you expect from them in the next 2-3 years, or the past? If you are basing it on the future, is that the concussion, or something else?

I'll argue that NEITHER is where we want to be at that position.

[dxpavelka]

 

that answered my question also, thanks!

Not sure I agree, but I understand why someone would feel that way. Not sure how to fix catcher, if there are none in FA, and we can't trade for one.....

Just not sure the solution is to jump at the first 30 year old guy with concussion issues that becomes available.  Always worth remembering that when a team that knows more about a guy than any other team or any of us on the sidelines does makes a guy available they often have a good reason.

[tobi0040]

 

Did you just argue that Lucroy is not a massive upgrade on Suzuki? Is that based on what you expect from them in the next 2-3 years, or the past? If you are basing it on the future, is that the concussion, or something else?

 

I was wondering the same thing.  Catcher is the biggest opportunity for us to improve offensively, IMO.  Very few FA options and trading is usually thin as well.

 

Last year Kurt had 136 total bases and 29 walks in 433 AB.  Add the two you get 165.

 

Had Lucroy seen 433 AB's at the same rate as his 2015.  Lucroy would have had 210.  45 additional bases translates to runs.

 

 

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Just not sure the solution is to jump at the first 30 year old guy with concussion issues that becomes available.  Always worth remembering that when a team that knows more about a guy than any other team or any of us on the sidelines does makes a guy available they often have a good reason.

 

Also important to keep in mind that he suffered the concussion about 9/10, it was diagnosed as a mild one.  He started playing 14 days later, primarily as a pinch hitter.  He went 5 for 13 the rest of the year (.417 average).  I think we are all thinking Morneau/Mauer type concussions here.  From memory, those guys did not play anywhere near two weeks later.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/specialist-confirms-jonathan-lucroy-suffered-concussion-b99573948z1-327152771.html

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just not sure the solution is to jump at the first 30 year old guy with concussion issues that becomes available.  Always worth remembering that when a team that knows more about a guy than any other team or any of us on the sidelines does makes a guy available they often have a good reason.

Like they are a terrible team and need prospects? Sometimes it is that simple, but sometimes it is more than that.

[DocBauer]

 

I don't trust 30-year-old catchers.

 

That's probably knee-jerk, but I've been asking this team to go full-on youth since before the Astros and Cubs made it fashionable this year.  I'm probably going to stubbornly protest adding any more vets to this team unless two are removed for every one added..

I get this. But his age doesn't bother me. Especially being a catcher, and the contract he's sitting at.

 

Offense from the catcher position is great to have, and he, potentially, should provide a nice upgrade there for us. But at the end of the day, it is still a defense first position. If Mauer were fully healthy and able to still catch, but simply had regressed due to age and wear and tear to the hitter he is now, he would STILL be a valuable asset. And not just for his defense and game calling, but for being the hitter he has become. 

 

As long as Lucroy is healthy, (including his head), there is no immediate reason to expect sudden regression. But as long as any regression wasn't to Butera levels, he would still be an asset and upgrade over the current situation. Further, in a season or two. either or both Turner and Garver should be ready in at least some capacity.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Some of these price tags seem a little high. Lucroy is a nice player but he's probably not going to be that special in his age 30-31 seasons. Compare him to Denard Span for example, who had accumulated more WAR in fewer games, was a year younger, played a premium defensive position, had the same concussion concern, and was under control for 3 years (as opposed to two) and was traded for a single top ~75 prospect in A ball. Shouldn't Lucroy's price tag be comparable to that?

Some folks think that the Twins erred in trading Span for a single top ~75 prospect in A ball, and/or rushed the trade by over-rating our in-house replacements (and unlike Milwaukee at the catcher position now, we at least had potential in-house replacements).  In general, one-for-one trades of MLB players with multiple years of control for a prospect seem pretty rare.  So I am not sure if the Span trade is a good yardstick for comparison.

 

As for positional value, the same winter we traded Span, the following 2012 CF were available in free agency: Hamilton, Bourn, Victorino, Pagan, Melky Cabrera, BJ Upton, Andres Torres, etc..  Free agent starting catchers available that same winter?  Russell Martin coming off 4 seasons of a collective 90 OPS+, AJ Pierzynski... and that's about it.  Catchers and CF are not usually equally scarce.

 

I don't think Milwaukee would agree to a straight-up Lucroy for Kepler swap, if that's the kind of deal you are suggesting.

[tobi0040]

 

Some folks think that the Twins erred in trading Span for a single top ~75 prospect in A ball, and/or rushed the trade by over-rating our in-house replacements (and unlike Milwaukee at the catcher position now, we at least had potential in-house replacements).  In general, one-for-one trades of MLB players with multiple years of control for a prospect seem pretty rare.  So I am not sure if the Span trade is a good yardstick for comparison.

 

As for positional value, the same winter we traded Span, the following 2012 CF were available in free agency: Hamilton, Bourn, Victorino, Pagan, Melky Cabrera, BJ Upton, Andres Torres, etc..  Free agent starting catchers available that same winter?  Russell Martin coming off 4 seasons of a collective 90 OPS+, AJ Pierzynski... and that's about it.  Catchers and CF are not usually equally scarce.

 

I don't think Milwaukee would agree to a straight-up Lucroy for Kepler swap, if that's the kind of deal you are suggesting.

 

Interesting comp in Martin.  He was 27 or 28 when he signed the deal. But the difference in pay was 5/82 for Martin versus Lucroy at 2/11. Lucroy is older now, but only a two year deal and his career OPS is actually better than Martin's.

 

That gives a team trading another $60M to spend.

 

[Willihammer]

 

Some folks think that the Twins erred in trading Span for a single top ~75 prospect in A ball, and/or rushed the trade by over-rating our in-house replacements (and unlike Milwaukee at the catcher position now, we at least had potential in-house replacements).  In general, one-for-one trades of MLB players with multiple years of control for a prospect seem pretty rare.  So I am not sure if the Span trade is a good yardstick for comparison.

 

As for positional value, the same winter we traded Span, the following 2012 CF were available in free agency: Hamilton, Bourn, Victorino, Pagan, Melky Cabrera, BJ Upton, Andres Torres, etc..  Free agent starting catchers available that same winter?  Russell Martin coming off 4 seasons of a collective 90 OPS+, AJ Pierzynski... and that's about it.  Catchers and CF are not usually equally scarce.

 

I don't think Milwaukee would agree to a straight-up Lucroy for Kepler swap, if that's the kind of deal you are suggesting.

Again, 17 WAR in 589 games vs 15.8 in 710

Age 29 vs age 30.

3  years control vs 2.

 

That should go a long way toward wiping out any scarcity advantage.

 

I do agree the Twins got ripped off.

[kab21]

I don't think people really understand how few catchers are available. 

 

Lucroy

Norris - a very logical target - Lucroy is much better defensively and offensive IF...

Wieters - 4/64?

AJ Pierzynski

 

Maybe a guy like Gary Sanchez is made available but I would much rather trade a prospect or two instead of Dozier like has been suggested.  Most likely the Twins end up with someone like AJ and have a very mediocre platoon behind the plate.

[DaveW]

Said the same yesterday.

 

Stewart seems like a natural starting point in a trade discussion.

Stewart doesn't have a lot of value anymore TBH

 

I equate Lucroys value to somewhere near Spans when he was traded, that took a top 60 prospect, Stewart is not that at his stage.

[DaveW]

I don't think people really understand how few catchers are available.

 

Lucroy

Norris - a very logical target - Lucroy is much better defensively and offensive IF...

Wieters - 4/64?

AJ Pierzynski

 

Maybe a guy like Gary Sanchez is made available but I would much rather trade a prospect or two instead of Dozier like has been suggested. Most likely the Twins end up with someone like AJ and have a very mediocre platoon behind the plate.

I would be shocked if Sanchez is truly available at this stage