TRADING TWINS

[Loosey]

Teams in need of a starting third baseman is small, but Plouffe is a pretty good 1st baseman as well.  I don't know if any team would do it, but I could see Plouffe as a full-time 1st baseman. 

 

I wonder if there are any teams in need of a first baseman with some pop in his bat . . . . ?

[Mike Sixel]

 

The league isn't exactly filled with teams who have a multitude of young catchers. The list of those teams in need of a starting third baseman is even smaller. It's easy to say "Oh let's trade Plouffe and maybe some prospects for a young catcher", but the question is, who?

 

I think expecting people, who are having a conversation on a message board, to always have this answer handy is a bit off. YMMV, of course. But sometimes, these posts are conversations, not dissertations with every answer.

 

Since Suzuki was signed, something like half the catchers above him in WAR are new to their teams.....so yes, there are clearly options out there. Doesn't mean I know who they are, but they do exist.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think expecting people, who are having a conversation on a message board, to always have this answer handy is a bit off. YMMV, of course. But sometimes, these posts are conversations, not dissertations with every answer.

 

Since Suzuki was signed, something like half the catchers above him in WAR are new to their teams.....so yes, there are clearly options out there. Doesn't mean I know who they are, but they do exist.

Catching is exceptionally weak though.  Only 7 catchers managed a 2 WAR season this year.  We could upgrade by signing AJ instead of trading a prospect.  (And there isn't much in the minor leagues, either).  

[gunnarthor]

I do think the Twins will make a few small trades - I think Ryan moves Nolasco.  I think we make a play for Drew Storen and we would listen on offers for any of our OFers but I think they go into the season with all of them and don't resign Hunter.  If they resign Hunter, they'll probably trade Arcia.

 

If the Nats want to back the truck up for Dozier, I could see him getting moved but I think that's pretty unlikely.

[Rosterman]

 

Util INF isn't a huge issue IMO, any of Santana, Polanco or Nunez would be more or less fine. I don't really trust Nunez at SS though, and Polanco and Satnana both have more upside so I would prefer one of them.

FWIW Since July 1st Nunez has a .580 OPS, he will be owed like 2 mil next year as well, IMO it's time to cut bait with him. Spend that money on a backup legit catcher or a bullpen arm type. I am very confident Santana or Polanco could put up bigger numbers then him.

Is Nunez simply a money move, or would there be a reason to keep him instead of, say, a Beresford (or Bernier). Which makes me wonder why the Twins didn't reward Beresford with a September call-up, putting him on the 40-man and jettisoning Aaron Thompson. Just for a looksee.

[DaveW]

 

Is Nunez simply a money move, or would there be a reason to keep him instead of, say, a Beresford (or Bernier). Which makes me wonder why the Twins didn't reward Beresford with a September call-up, putting him on the 40-man and jettisoning Aaron Thompson. Just for a looksee.

Beresford and Bernier really have no place on a major league roster as well. You jettison Nunez and replace him with either:

 

1.) a bat

2.) a Util INF that has some upside: Polanco or Santana.

[Linus]

 

The league isn't exactly filled with teams who have a multitude of young catchers. The list of those teams in need of a starting third baseman is even smaller. It's easy to say "Oh let's trade Plouffe and maybe some prospects for a young catcher", but the question is, who?

It doesn't have to be a direct Plouffe for young catcher trade.  We can use other assets to acquire the young catcher and then trade Plouffe to replenish the assets used to acquire the catcher.  We have a variety of assets that would be valuable to other teams that have a catcher to deal: infielders, outfielders, starting pitching just about any combo other than bullpen help.

[rghrbek]

 

I do think the Twins will make a few small trades - I think Ryan moves Nolasco.  I think we make a play for Drew Storen and we would listen on offers for any of our OFers but I think they go into the season with all of them and don't resign Hunter.  If they resign Hunter, they'll probably trade Arcia.

 

If the Nats want to back the truck up for Dozier, I could see him getting moved but I think that's pretty unlikely.

 

I see this often about Nolasco.   Who would possibly take an injury prone hurler, when he has pitched on his recent contract, has stunk it up?   In addition he has two more years at 12 million.  The only way we get rid of Nolasco, is if we take on a worse contract.   Maybe that player might have a little more value, but I just don't think Nolasco is going anywhere this off season.

 

I also have a feeling Nunez will be back.  I don't think the Twins trust Polonco or Santana to be utility men at this point, and have them sit on the bench.  They would want both kids to get more at bats/fielding reps.   Frankly, at this point, Santana needs more at bats and Polonco needs to polish it up in the field....

[gunnarthor]

 

I see this often about Nolasco.   Who would possibly take an injury prone hurler, when he has pitched on his recent contract, has stunk it up?   In addition he has two more years at 12 million.  The only way we get rid of Nolasco, is if we take on a worse contract.   Maybe that player might have a little more value, but I just don't think Nolasco is going anywhere this off season.

 

I also have a feeling Nunez will be back.  I don't think the Twins trust Polonco or Santana to be utility men at this point, and have them sit on the bench.  They would want both kids to get more at bats/fielding reps.   Frankly, at this point, Santana needs more at bats and Polonco needs to polish it up in the field....

There were rumors that the Twins and Padres were close to a trade at the deadline that would have included Nolasco.  You're right that a Nolasco trade would require the Twins to take back someone else's Nolasco.  

[rghrbek]

 

There were rumors that the Twins and Padres were close to a trade at the deadline that would have included Nolasco.  You're right that a Nolasco trade would require the Twins to take back someone else's Nolasco.  

 

Correct, the Padres were talking with the Twins at the trade deadline about Shields.   I guess I am thinking this off season.   Now that the Twins think they have something in Duffy (and so far so good), I cannot see them taking Shields on or anyone else (Reyes) with a bad or worse contract, just to get rid of Nolasco.    Sometimes I wonder if people think we could trade Nolasco for some A ball semi prospect, who is not that good.   The answer there is also no or they would have done so already.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There were rumors that the Twins and Padres were close to a trade at the deadline that would have included Nolasco.

 

I think this is somewhat overstating things.  There were rumors that Nolasco was discussed, not that anything was close.  (It's not at all clear what was going on with the Padres at the deadline -- I am sure a lot of guys were discussed with them who will never be moved.)

[howieramone2]

 

I think this is somewhat overstating things.  There were rumors that Nolasco was discussed, not that anything was close.  (It's not at all clear what was going on with the Padres at the deadline -- I am sure a lot of guys were discussed with them who will never be moved.)

The mere fact that it was actually discussed, puts it's ahead of 90% of the trade posts on this board. Pursing a starting pitcher that would slot in front of Santana, makes a great deal of sense for a team with World Series ambitions, as does eliminating a questionable contract. I also found it refreshing that it wasn't another post about packaging the board scapegoats in hope of receiving something of value.

[blairpaul715]

Couple trade ideas, I like hearing peoples (real) trade ideas..............so here are a couple ideas throwing it out there..........The Washington Nationals are in need of some pitching, as they lose Fister and Zimmerman as FA's, so maybe a Duffey or a high caliber lower Minor league pitcher(Gonsalves or Stewart) for Pedro Severino who is a catcher in the Nationals minor league system, who is basically ready or very close to ready for the Majors and who could be a starter or parttime starter next yr with Suzuki.........I think his offense is about Suzuki level, but his defense is above average.

 

Or Gibson or May to Dodgers for catcher Austin Barnes and maybe another low level minor leaguer with upside.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Couple trade ideas, I like hearing peoples (real) trade ideas..............so here are a couple ideas throwing it out there..........The Washington Nationals are in need of some pitching, as they lose Fister and Zimmerman as FA's, so maybe a Duffey or a high caliber lower Minor league pitcher(Gonsalves or Stewart) for Pedro Severino who is a catcher in the Nationals minor league system, who is basically ready or very close to ready for the Majors and who could be a starter or parttime starter next yr with Suzuki.........I think his offense is about Suzuki level, but his defense is above average.

 

Or Gibson or May to Dodgers for catcher Austin Barnes and maybe another low level minor leaguer with upside.

Severino isn't a bad target but I think his upside is much more Drew Butera than Suzuki.  He has a sub .300 obp in AA.  He's still relatively young and should be in AA or AAA next year so it would make sense for the Twins to target him but not as the centerpiece. If they try and peel away Storen, for example, maybe they get Severino as a throw in by the Nats - something like Gonsalves and our 2nd round supp pick for Storen and Severino (or Reetz who is further away but seems to have better upside).  That might be a little overpay on our side so maybe something slightly better in return or less going away.  But it's in the neighborhood. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

That Nats need pitching now, not later.  Not sure Gonsalves would be what they want.  The flip side is that they might be an ideal target for a guy like Milone.  Not sure Servino is the guy I'd want there, but if you could flip Milone for a disgruntled Storen, I'd probably do that in a heart beat. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Papelbon picked a fight with Bryce Harper the other day.  I'd say Storen might be less likely to get shipped off now.  

[gunnarthor]

 

That Nats need pitching now, not later.  Not sure Gonsalves would be what they want.  The flip side is that they might be an ideal target for a guy like Milone.  Not sure Servino is the guy I'd want there, but if you could flip Milone for a disgruntled Storen, I'd probably do that in a heart beat. 

Yeah, that would make sense.  Milone's been a solid ML pitcher in the AL, under control for a few more years.  Storen is out in Washington and Paps is untradeable at this point.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Not really, you still have enough room to roster both Vargas and Arcia to start the season.

It's highly likely that Buxton starts 2016 in the minors, that opens up an OF spot immediately for Arcia.

Vargas could start out the everyday DH with Morneau serving as a backup and PH off the bench.

My ideal bench:
Morneau PH
Backup catcher (preferably Suzuki)
Util INF (Santana or Polanco)
4th OF (Robinson?)
Additional bat or util guy.


Opening day lineup:
Hicks
Mauer
Sano
Dozier
Vargas
Rosario
Arcia
Escobar
Catcher

Starting out with a normal 6 man pen would
Help too.

 

1) The Twins will only have four guys on their bench. We may like them to not take 12 pitchers but with an inconsistent bullpen, you'll see them keeping an extra guy.  It's what they like to do anyways.

 

2) Hard to see Buxton starting the year in the minors. He hasn't been amazing but there are no service time advantages and Arcia is not an upgrade over Buxton. Arcia will likely be a backup OF/DH/bench bat type. If he isn't dealt. 

 

3) That bit ties into why Morneau makes little to no sense for this team. Arcia is Morneau except younger, cheaper and with upside. In addition, though Kepler will be in the minors to start the season for service time reasons, he will be coming back up early in the season and provides another left handed bat. When he comes up, someone needs to be cut and it's not going to be Justin Morneau.  You're likely to see a placeholder guy like a Robinson/Nunez type or a Reynaldo Rodriguez to start the season - a guy you can cut or send back to the minors. Justin Morneau only makes sense if he's going to be on the team the whole year, which seems unlikely with the young guys continuing to come up and the backlog of DH/1B types.

This is your opening day position players IMO. I'm assuming the Twins move Plouffe (not a given of course!):

RF Hicks
2B Dozier

1B Mauer
3B Sano
DH Vargas
LF Rosario

SS Escobar
C Catcher*
CF Buxton (if Buxton goes supernova next year, this lineup gets insane!)

Bench:
Arcia (4th OF/DH)

Santana (utility, ability to play the OF is why I think he beats Polanco)

Catcher2
Nunez (has the ability to play 3B and can be an emergency OF if need be)**

 

When Kepler comes up, then I could see Nunez being cut/traded or a bullpen arm being sent down.

* Biggest question this offseason is can the Twins trade Plouffe for a 3-4 year solution at catcher. I hope so because the free agent market is slim pickings and Plouffe is the Twins' greatest area of surplus that I can actually see them trade (no way the prospect conscious Twins are going to trade Kepler/Rosario/Buxton/Hicks - they're risk adverse ).

** The one issue when you bring up Kepler (assuming there is no injury) is who backs up 2B/3B.  Sano isn't a Brian Dozier I-play-everyday kind of guy and is going to need some DH days. Escobar/Santana/Polanco have some experience in the minors at 2B and to a lesser extent, 3B but it is pretty minimal.  I wonder if the Twins will have Mauer and/or Kepler take some time at 3B this spring? Kepler never played there in the minors and Joe obviously hasn't but it would be useful if one of them could do an adequate job. 

[sane]

 

There were rumors that the Twins and Padres were close to a trade at the deadline that would have included Nolasco. 

I think those "rumors" were just someone eavesdropping on Terry Ryan praying.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, that would make sense.  Milone's been a solid ML pitcher in the AL, under control for a few more years.  Storen is out in Washington and Paps is untradeable at this point.  

They didn't give up much to get Papelbon, and if the clubhouse hates him, he might want out of Washington just as much as he wanted out of Philly.  I don't think he's necessarily untradeable nor is Storen definitely out at this point.

 

 

Also, even with Zimmermann and Fister likely departing, they've already got Ross and Roark who would both likely be ahead of Milone on their depth chart.  Milone might be their 6th starter as much as he might be ours, and they're probably not looking to give up good value to fill that role.

 

Even if he could make their top 5, Washington also has a recent history of aiming higher than Milone for their SP acquisitions (Gonzalez, Jackson, Haren, Fister, and Scherzer since 2012).  And there are a lot of SP hitting the FA market this winter, both blockbuster aces and high-upside buy-low candidates.

[gunnarthor]

 

They didn't give up much to get Papelbon, and if the clubhouse hates him, he might want out of Washington just as much as he wanted out of Philly.  I don't think he's necessarily untradeable nor is Storen definitely out at this point.

 

 

On Paps, I think there are three reasons he doesn't get moved.

1) Rizzo traded for him and can be somewhat stubborn (per the Post) about moves like this.  He thinks Paps is part of the team and Storen isn't so ...

2) No team is going to want to trade for Paps 11m salary to go along with his diva attitude - I think his trade value is even lower than when Philly traded him.  So the Nats would have to eat much of his salary and get nothing good back in return.

3) Paps closing demands aren't something most teams would want to deal with.  The only teams that should trade for him are teams with a shot at the postseason and need a closer and don't care about "chemistry."  Not sure there are many of those teams out there.  Maybe Houston, since Gregerson seems to be their closer.  

 

Anyway, those are the reasons I don't think the Nats can trade Paps.  I could be wrong.

 

On the Milone thing, you're not wrong that they have more options but teams need SP depth.  Milone isn't a bad option.  Maybe he's not a perfect fit.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So the Nats would have to eat much of his salary and get nothing good back in return.

After he picked a fight with Bryce Harper, this is not an unrealistic proposition anymore.  Rizzo may only have one season left to avoid firing himself, I am not sure he's going to prove that loyal to manager Williams or closer Papelbon (whose closer title is not contractually guaranteed either).

 

Also, Papelbon only has a limited no-trade clause, so even with his closer demands, he can't block a deal to Bos, TB, KC, LAA, Sea, Hou, NYM, Atl, StL, Cin, Cubs, or SD.  Obviously not all of those teams would be interested in him, but I could see a couple willing to take him for a year at a reduced price.  I could see Papelbon waiving his no-trade rights for a couple other teams too if he is truly despised in the Nats clubhouse too.

[blairpaul715]

 

Yeah, that would make sense.  Milone's been a solid ML pitcher in the AL, under control for a few more years.  Storen is out in Washington and Paps is untradeable at this point.  

Papelbon for Nolasco??!!!

[blairpaul715]

 

 

1) The Twins will only have four guys on their bench. We may like them to not take 12 pitchers but with an inconsistent bullpen, you'll see them keeping an extra guy.  It's what they like to do anyways.

 

2) Hard to see Buxton starting the year in the minors. He hasn't been amazing but there are no service time advantages and Arcia is not an upgrade over Buxton. Arcia will likely be a backup OF/DH/bench bat type. If he isn't dealt. 

 

3) That bit ties into why Morneau makes little to no sense for this team. Arcia is Morneau except younger, cheaper and with upside. In addition, though Kepler will be in the minors to start the season for service time reasons, he will be coming back up early in the season and provides another left handed bat. When he comes up, someone needs to be cut and it's not going to be Justin Morneau.  You're likely to see a placeholder guy like a Robinson/Nunez type or a Reynaldo Rodriguez to start the season - a guy you can cut or send back to the minors. Justin Morneau only makes sense if he's going to be on the team the whole year, which seems unlikely with the young guys continuing to come up and the backlog of DH/1B types.

This is your opening day position players IMO. I'm assuming the Twins move Plouffe (not a given of course!):

RF Hicks
2B Dozier

1B Mauer
3B Sano
DH Vargas
LF Rosario

SS Escobar
C Catcher*
CF Buxton (if Buxton goes supernova next year, this lineup gets insane!)

Bench:
Arcia (4th OF/DH)

Santana (utility, ability to play the OF is why I think he beats Polanco)

Catcher2
Nunez (has the ability to play 3B and can be an emergency OF if need be)**

 

** The one issue when you bring up Kepler (assuming there is no injury) is who backs up 2B/3B.  Sano isn't a Brian Dozier I-play-everyday kind of guy and is going to need some DH days. Escobar/Santana/Polanco have some experience in the minors at 2B and to a lesser extent, 3B but it is pretty minimal.  I wonder if the Twins will have Mauer and/or Kepler take some time at 3B this spring? Kepler never played there in the minors and Joe obviously hasn't but it would be useful if one of them could do an adequate job. 

I like pretty much everything about this, but Kepler is Lefthanded.

[Mike Sixel]

There are service/control years reasons for Buxton to be down. Ryan has said, and I think shown, he doesn't care about those.....

[DaveW]

I would target Papelbon in a heartbeat. He's a douche, but who cares, Harper is a douche as well, plus he isn't the first guy to ever go after a teammate. (Hunter v Morneau anyone?)

 

He is still a great RP and the Twins could get him for nothing most likely.

[Major League Ready]

What is Nolasco's trade value if the Twins pick-up 5-6M/yr? 

[DaveW]

 

What is Nolasco's trade value if the Twins pick-up 5-6M/yr? 

As of now? Little. Best case scenario is to let Nolasco come back healthy early next year, get out of the gate halfway decent and then trade him (When he has a tiny bit more "value") once Berrios is ready.

 

I don't mind Nolasco "blocking" guys like Milone at this point, I do mind him blocking guys like Duffey and Berrios however.

[Thrylos]

 

Are we in rebuild or contend mode? Why would the Twins trade Perkins or Jepson from a bullpen which is already short on talent?

 

Because Perkins is part of that shortage?

[DaveW]

 

Because Perkins is part of that shortage?

Except for tonight, and like 95% of the last two seasons, right?

 

I don't understand your hatred of Perkins.