TRADING TWINS

[Rosterman]

The off-season activity will start up before we know it. Which means roster decisions, free agents announcing their availability, and teams fielding offers for their players.

 

What do the Twins have to dangle out there and what kind of returns could they get on their players?

 

No player is truly untouchable. But you could make a case that Buxton and Sano won't be going anywhere. 

 

Kepler could be a guy in demand, and if the Twins have no real plans for the guy to premiere somewhere in the next two years, he might be one of their more valuable trade chips at the moment.

 

Otherwise, rotation. The inflated contracts of Santana, Hughes and Nolasco pretty much guarantee that they will remain Twins for most of another season. With a couple more solid starts, Santana could appeal to a team looking for a starter under contract. I could better see teams knocking on the door for a chance to acquire Kyle Gibson. Tyler Duffey shows some promise but not a lot of value. Don't see much changing here. Just the Twins figuring out what to do with May and Berrios.

 

The bullpen is a mess. The Twins could demand high return on Perkins, but two seasons of meltdown hasn't made him a popular choice for another team, except that he could also just be a left-handed setup guy. If the price is right, the Twins probably would take the bait and stick with the lower-priced Jepsen. But Jepsen might be a valuable tradechip in himself, arbitration bound with successful closing experience at season's end in the midst of a wildcard hunt. SIgning him and Casey Fien gives the Twins a couple of possible trade chips of value in spring training.

 

That is assuming that the Twins aren't heavy buyers themselves for the bullpen. May stays? Everyone else is piecemeal at this point: Tonkin, Achter, Pressley, Graham, Meyer, those 800 college guys you signed in the minors. I doubt we will ever see Oliveros again, and Pryor probably walks, too. We can't miss what we don't have.

 

Could the Twins trade Joe Mauer and what would they get in return. Does he have any value, any value whatsoever, to another team. It would sure free up salary and offer a place to play Vargas and soon Kepler, both of whom could come close to replicating Mauer's season of 2015.

 

The Twins have need of a catcher. But should they also dangle Suzuki before making a decision themselves. He's not the best guy available, but he did put up solid mid-level numbers this year and ended up being an ironman behind-the-plate, although his framing and throw-out skills were called into question. For another team looking for a catcher, he could be a grab. If the Twins can sign a younger more solid backstop, then he does become available. But when a team knows you may not have a place for a player, their trade value decreases.

 

Which is the problem the Twins face with their most valuable tradechip: Trevor Plouffe. The assumption is that Sano could be the third-base guy for the near future, before shifting abck into a DH role 9or an outfield spot, of even first base) when he gets to be old at age 25 or 26 or so and maybe someone the Twins signed this year will be the new third-base guy of the future. So the Twins could be trading from a position of strength, but teams also know that Plouffe, although an adequate thirdbase guy who will be expensive come his final arbitration year, is a man that may be on the Twins 40-man with a roster spot come spring training end. That hurts his value, unless someone is huirting for a third baseman,and the question is can they do better on the current free agent market, trade for a backup from some other team, or grab Plouffe and find a longterm position for him, or let him walk when he reaches that arbitration final payout.

 

The Twins could probably dangle Dozier for some return. I would feel more comfortable if they would bring up Polanco and get 25-30 more at bat looks at that guy. Then maybe Polanco becomes the tradechip and Dozier stays. Like Dozier, Escobar has some value to another club. But I don't see a big return to the Twins.

 

I wish I knew what other teams are thinking about Oswaldo Arcia. If any of them really care? If they are sitting back to see what the Twins will be forced to do come spring training end...keeping the guy or just letting him walk (or be gone for the first solid prospect offer). Arcia could probably be bundled with another player (Hughes, Nolasco, Santana...any of the Twins big contracts). It might be the way to rid yourself of one of those big salaries. But what do you get in return. A mid-level bullpen guy, a couple more prospects to flush out the system that need to come off of someone else's 40-man roster spot or have a season before being Rule5 or minors free agent qualified? Arcia could be packaged, maybe with Plouffe and a prospect, for a first-class catcher (names anyone).

 

No one is untouchable. Is this when you listen to offers for Eddie Rosario? If people call about Aaron Hicks, do you listen. I would say yes you do, although I would rather hear talk for Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas instead.

 

It would be great to move big salary: Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, Mauer, maybe Perkins. But I don't see the Twins being the first call for players of that ilk. Most other teams have their own overpriced salary eaters and don't need to take on more.

 

Players like Gibson and Dozier and Plouffe and Hicks and maybe Tommy Milone could draw the most interest. We could find replacements in our own minor leagues for the moment. So the return of better-than-average prospects would be a possibility.

 

You can be assured that the Twins will have roster spots. Herrmann, Fryer, Cotts, Duensing, Pelfrey, Thompson, Nunez, Hunter, Robinson will all be free agents. Two or possibly three of Boyer, O'Rourke, Darnell, Achter and Tonkin could be gone, or ready to be jettisoned after the 40-man rosters are set and you need to sign a free agent or add a Rule 5 guy.

 

We have names like Meyer and Pinto that the Twins won't quite give up on, although either could be expendable if the right prospect comes back in a trade with another team that pushes either down the prospect ladder rungs.

 

Are the Twins set for 2016? Rotation: Yes. Bullpen: some upgrades possible, wish those college guys were ready. Catching: BIG NEED. Infield: The Mauer Syndrome better not continue. Outfield: To Buxton or Not, that is the question, and then the Arcia Needs. Bench: A mess, but bodies do exist (Arcia, Vargas, Santana and a catcher sounds okay to me).

 

But back to the "Trading Twins." My Big Question: Would the Twins trade Joe Mauer and what, if anything, could they get for him? Could that happen? Would the fan base care? Would we rather see Vargas and then Kepler at first (or maybe keep Plouffe and make it the future home of Sano).

 

 

You know, I don't think I would enjoy sitting in the General Manager's office right now.

 

 

[Highabove]

Are we in rebuild or contend mode? Why would the Twins trade Perkins or Jepson from a bullpen which is already short on talent?

[ashbury]

But you could make a case that Buxton and Sano won't be going anywhere.

 

I will similarly stick my neck out and say that one could make a case the Twins will again be owned by someone named Pohlad in 2016.

 

I don't anticipate the Twins making any true blockbuster trades that bring in huge talent, although I'd love it if they tried. I'm tired of us getting 2 maybes in return for our one decent guy - I want the ratio to go the other way since our farm system is deep and you can have only so many on the 40-man and 25-man at any one time.

 

Tough to pull off, but I'd love to see us package multiple players for one, e.g. a costly veteran pitcher with 3 young talents who don't quite have a place in the Twins' future, or Plouffe plus Arcia plus someone a bit more talented, in return for ... a difference maker. Trouble is, other GMs want to hang on to their difference makers, too.

 

As another goal I would like to see them clear out the 40-man chaff via trade if they can, although the return in trade for Fien plus Cotts plus Boyer, even with Duensing as the sweetener, will be only a very marginal prospect in return, if anything at all. Whether by bad luck or bad evaluation, Terry Ryan's apparent strategy to gather some relievers and peddle the excess at the trade deadline has simply not worked for several seasons now.

[brvama]

For a team, like the Twins, who have average to maybe slightly above average players, any trades will be for the same level of player.  Maybe that wouldn't be that bad if our prospects are able to take up the slack and the player received via trade fills a definite need..  Of course, packages can certainly up the return.

 

TR and staff are certainly going to have to earn their pay this winter, if the Twins want to continue to improve.   However, I do believe there will be opportunities to find trades that will benefit the Twins AND clear up the logjam of the roster.  Question is, will it happen?  Or should I say, "Will the stars align?"

[old nurse]

Boyer, Cotts and Duensing are all free agents after the season. MLB does not do sign and trade

[ashbury]

Boyer, Cotts and Duensing are all free agents after the season. MLB does not do sign and trade

True enough, so the 40-man lint can be cleaned out in that simple way. And signing them for a possible later trade would be a terrible gamble.

 

However, and against my preferences, I expect Boyer will indeed be re-signed by the team, not for any gamesmanship, but to be part of the 2016 bullpen.

[nytwinsfan]

I'd trade Plouffe if a good or high upside young(ish) catcher is available. Otherwise I'd keep him to start the year. I'd also consider trading Polanco for the right value and one of the starters (probably Milone and/or Gibson or one of Hughes/Nolasco/Santana if someone will bite). I wouldn't trade Kepler, Hicks, or Rosario unless someone really antes up big time. Vargas, Arcia and Santana should be available, but not just to get a deal done, rather as part of a deal for a catcher or solid relief pitcher we would feel comfortable pitching the 8th inning in a close game.

[DaveW]

I would shop "proven closer" Jepsen very aggressively.

 

If you can pull off a Ramos type deal, you do it in a heartbeat.

 

Perk will be the closer next year and if you can get an everyday type player in return for Jep, you do it. (Though if you can't, i am excited for him back in a pen with Perk and May)

 

Plouffe should be traded almost at all costs. Sano should be the everyday 3rd baseman and DH should goto whoever earns it between Vargas, Arcia and maybe a veteran signing.

 

I'd shop Gibson, Milone, Nolasco aggressively as well.

[Hrbowski]

 

Plouffe should be traded almost at all costs. Sano should be the everyday 3rd baseman and DH should goto whoever earns it between Vargas, Arcia and maybe a veteran signing.

Hunter?

[DaveW]

Hunter doesn't hit enough to be an everyday DH. I'd take a flier on Morneau personally. Still not too old, if he stays healthy could have a nice season as a part time DH

[Platoon]

Hunter?

No. Nada. Nien. Nyett! (While some of the spellings are not exact, I think my thoughts are)! That said, as sure as I need language classes, Hunter will be back. A combination of this spurt he has had, his ego, and TR's inability to resist players over 30 years old makes it a fait accompli!

[Rosterman]

 

Hunter doesn't hit enough to be an everyday DH. I'd take a flier on Morneau personally. Still not too old, if he stays healthy could have a nice season as a part time DH

Adding back in Morneau, as you might Hunter, means you are jettisoning Arcia and Vargas, two players with possibly more upside during the next decade than those two will give the Twins (or anyone) for the next year or two.

[DaveW]

Adding back in Morneau, as you might Hunter, means you are jettisoning Arcia and Vargas, two players with possibly more upside during the next decade than those two will give the Twins (or anyone) for the next year or two.

Not really, you still have enough room to roster both Vargas and Arcia to start the season.

 

It's highly likely that Buxton starts 2016 in the minors, that opens up an OF spot immediately for Arcia.

 

Vargas could start out the everyday DH with Morneau serving as a backup and PH off the bench.

 

My ideal bench:

Morneau PH

Backup catcher (preferably Suzuki)

Util INF (Santana or Polanco)

4th OF (Robinson?)

Additional bat or util guy.

 

 

Opening day lineup:

Hicks

Mauer

Sano

Dozier

Vargas

Rosario

Arcia

Escobar

Catcher

 

Starting out with a normal 6 man pen would

Help too.

[Thegrin]

This is the most depressing thread we have had in a long time.    We are unlikely to get value for any of the players we trade.  We are not likely to find a competent catcher.  We have a glut of starting pitchers and outfielders and the middle infielders are all of similar promise.  What to do ? What to do ? 

[Kwak]

This thread is a joke.  The people you want to trade are the undesirables and require significant cash sweeteners to trade--ergo, won't happen.  The players that can be traded (young talent) are the ones that should be kept.

[Rosterman]

 

This thread is a joke.  The people you want to trade are the undesirables and require significant cash sweeteners to trade--ergo, won't happen.  The players that can be traded (young talent) are the ones that should be kept.

So could even Billy Beane take this team and get anything in trade that would improve it above and beyond what we hope future prospects will do in the immediate future? 

[lukeduke1980]

speaking of Beane, I've wondered if their catcher Vogt could be had, for someone like Kennys Ortiz. 

[DaveW]

 

speaking of Beane, I've wondered if their catcher Vogt could be had, for someone like Kennys Ortiz. 

No.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

speaking of Beane, I've wondered if their catcher Vogt could be had, for someone like Kennys Ortiz. 

If our Kennys has any Ortiz in him, probably should hang on to him.

[howieramone2]

Our top 3 trade chips are Plouffe, Hicks, and May, and I would not trade Plouffe until we are convinced Sano is not a 25-30 errors per season machine. We are postioned almost perfectly. We have gold, vets to trade, and prospects to trade. I would look to slot someone in front of Santana at the front of the rotation. Yesterday TR made it sound like a catcher to slow down the running game would be a priority. Many ways we can go.

[tcarlic]

Arcia will be traded.  I don't think Molitor likes him too much.  Outfield opening day will be Rosario, Hicks, and Hunter; unfortunately Hunter is retained --at a much lower rate.  Buxton to AAA for a minute, but I guess why send him down when they brought him up early this year; although, out of necessity.  I reallllly like the Rosario, Buxton, Hicks outfield.  I think all the Twins pitchers and Molitor does as well.  I don't see how you can bring Hunter back, unless he is the fourth/fifth outfielder/DH guy.

 

Plouffe stays.  He's a solid player; 'nuff said.

 

What do we do with Mauer?  He can't stay at 1b.  If he hits .270, he needs to send out a bunch more dingers.  If he hits .320, he doesn't need to hit more dingers.  One or the other, but they can't have him doing .270 and 9 long ones.  I don't have a clue what to do with Mauer, but I'd rather have him in the lineup than not in the lineup.  Can't see him hitting 3rd too much longer with Sano in the lineup.  

 

Nolasco is not going anywhere unless the Twins take a bad contract and similar player off of the other team.  I'd prefer a position player rather than a pitcher. Melvin Upton from the Padres?  I could stomach his results better than Nolasco's; like 100 times stomach it more.

 

Just shut Hughes down until he figures out what is preventing him from hitting 93 mph on the gun.  Like posters have said previously on this board, if he can't get passed 91, he doesn't have the movement for that.  Insurance is kicked in when a player is on the DL correct?.  The Twins need Hughes to be better than he was this year.  He doesn't have to be what he was in '14, but he needs to be better than '15.

 

Santana should be alright with a full season of starts.  He's a good #3.

 

Rotation of Santana, Gibson, Hughes (if healthy), Duffey, and Milone is do-able until Berrios gets called up.  If Hughes is hurt, stretch May out to start; however, May can be dominant in the 'pen with that 96 mph heater and dirty curve.  May, Jepsen, Perkins is a solid start.  Will Meyer get his act together? Can some of the college throwers become pitchers and harness their natural ability? 

 

Dozier needs to learn to hit the ball to the opposite field.  I hope he looks long and hard at his second half stats.  Really, really long and hard.

 

Escobar should be the Twins starting shortstop unless Polanco hits .500 in spring training.  Wait... scratch that, Escobar has EARNED the right to be the starting shortstop with his play in the major leagues in '14 and '15.

 

Sano continues to mash.

 

What catchers are available in trade? Who are some prospects? Take a chance on Matt Wieters? He's a free agent, right?  I like Suzuki as a backup.  He's a professional and a leader. Perhaps extend him to serve as a backup and maybe an eventual coach?

 

I like this team going into next year.  We have above average defense, a potentially above average lineup for a high ceiling and an average lineup as the floor, average starting pitching, potential above average bullpen with some help from inside and outside the organization, and a solid coaching staff.  A good mix of veterans to supervise the young players.  A well of prospects that can be used to entice teams to pull the trigger on trades.  Of course, majority of these guys could implode and then we're back to the drawing board.

[old nurse]

Ryan tends to trade spare parts. Plouffe is a spare part if Sano can play 3b.

Arcia  I think have options left. If not he is trade bait. Buxton, Hicks and Rosatio appear to be the outfield. The only way Hicks would be traded is if the offer is a player or two that intrigues Ryan and company.

Danny Santana could be traded for a prospect.

Perkins, May and Jepson are probably the only relievers that will return. Boyer and Cotts maybe depending on price. Ryan should know he needs upgrades. Depite the opinion that relievers are fungable, 7/8 inning guys are not.

If Millone still has an option he would be kept unless they think Wheeler, Rodgers or Dean are capable of being your emergency starter. Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco all have difficult contracts for trading. Gibson shouldn't go anywhere. So far Duffrey looks like he belongs and you have Berrios waiting in the wings. Ryan will have to do the difficult because he really does not trade the cheap. Ryan has in the past said things about always liking Santana and Hughes, that leaves Nolasco. A bad contract for a bad contract might be the best deal Ryan could do.

[Thrylos]

 

Are we in rebuild or contend mode? Why would the Twins trade Perkins or Jepson from a bullpen which is already short on talent?

 

Because they are part of the shortage

[DaveW]

The Twins suddenly now have "two proven closers" teams will often overpay for a "proven closer" which is why I would shop Jepsen. Especially if you can bring back a catcher or some young high upside pitching.

[jun]

Not really, you still have enough room to roster both Vargas and Arcia to start the season.

 

It's highly likely that Buxton starts 2016 in the minors, that opens up an OF spot immediately for Arcia.

 

Vargas could start out the everyday DH with Morneau serving as a backup and PH off the bench.

 

My ideal bench:

Morneau PH

Backup catcher (preferably Suzuki)

Util INF (Santana or Polanco)

4th OF (Robinson?)

Additional bat or util guy.

 

 

Opening day lineup:

Hicks

Mauer

Sano

Dozier

Vargas

Rosario

Arcia

Escobar

Catcher

 

Starting out with a normal 6 man pen would

Help too.

I do not want to see Danny Santana anymore.

Nunez has hit well enough this year. He has earned the utility duty at least.

[DaveW]

 

I do not want to see Danny Santana anymore.
Nunez has hit well enough this year. He has earned the utility duty at least.

Util INF isn't a huge issue IMO, any of Santana, Polanco or Nunez would be more or less fine. I don't really trust Nunez at SS though, and Polanco and Satnana both have more upside so I would prefer one of them.

FWIW Since July 1st Nunez has a .580 OPS, he will be owed like 2 mil next year as well, IMO it's time to cut bait with him. Spend that money on a backup legit catcher or a bullpen arm type. I am very confident Santana or Polanco could put up bigger numbers then him.

[DocBauer]

The first...sorta...of about 40 offseason trade and FA signing threads.

 

Officially that is.

 

I am sure I will repeat myself multiple times over the next few months on certain topics, but what the hell, might as well start here and now.

 

Let me state officially that I believe the Twins of 2016 are "this close" to contending seriously; holding thumb and forefinger an inch apart and imagining Don Adams doing his best Maxwell Smart voice.

 

Please forgive me in advance when I will invariably use this line again.

 

I have maintained since LAST offseason that the pre-2016 offseason was when they should make major moves...if major moves were to be made. The logic being simple: after 2015 the Twins would really know what they had and didn't have after a return to play of top prospects, (Buxton and Sano foremost), as well as a better feel for all prospects and the roster in general.

 

You should always attempt to trade for need, strength, depth...and sometimes, from clarity.

 

I think we are reaching that point. And actually, with little exception, were I in charge, the trades might be few this offseason.

 

 

1* Trade Jepson? O..M..G..NO! A 1,000 times NO! We have an all star closer and legitimate setup man for next season! Why in hell would we depreciate our 2016 bullpen?

 

2* The pen has options, but I would look to add depth. The milb system has a wealth of RP talent and possibilities who could help anywhere from soon to in a while. That is not enough! I always thought it silly when some thought Burdi, James, Jones and others should be promoted directly to the ML club. Reality proved that isn't practical. Pelfrey's contract alone should allow the Twins to sign another quality RHRP for the pen. The debate should be for who and how long; someone like Hawkins or Benoit short term, or someone younger and for more years.

 

Right now, I'm inclined to bring Cotts back. But I am NOT disinclined to a prime LHFA for 4-6M$. The money should be there. Picture a pen with Perkins, Jepen, FA, Cotts or FA as your prime 4 to start with.

 

3* For the first time in years, the Twins open 2016 with a real, quality rotation that includes 7 members. Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May, Milone, Berrios and Duffey. Forget SSS, which I don't think exists at this point, former RP Duffey has established himself as a ML quality pitcher. Berrios COULD begin '16 at Rochester for various reasons. Regardless, he will be up soon.

 

Duffey could be a stud out of the bullpen, initially at least, and has experience there, and we've discussed the Cardinals way, many times, of starting guys there. But in past years, we'd be clamoring for him in the rotation. Milone? I've always loved having at least 1 SP being from the port side. And despite limited stuff, Milone has proven in the past, and this year, that he has real ML ability. But I want the best rotation I can bring, even if it's all RH. I am begining to see Milone as a LHRP who can be a mid and long and swing arm. Especially if you have another strong later inning LH in the pen.

 

Do the math...put it all together...and tell me the rotation and bullpen...with just a spot or two open for audition doesn't make you giddy!

 

**Making May a reliever at this early point makes me cringe!**

 

4* I believe the one thing the 2016 Twins could use is a professional LH hitter off the bench for PH, DH and maybe an occasional lineup start, which is why I find the idea of re-signing Hunter somewhat incongruous, even though he COULD HELP were he to accept a smaller contract and limited-non-promised role.

 

NOTE: none of this involves trades, only FA contracts.

 

Actual trades?

 

1* No hatred or bitterness. In fact, were he healthy enough to actually help the remainder of the Twins 2015 season, Nolasco would be a welcome addition to the active roster about now. But let's be real...unless the Twins want to make Nolasco the highest paid middle reliever spot starter in the league....he has to go.

 

Again, there is nothing wrong with Nolasco. He's a fine, dependable ML SP who was a nice sign. It just hasn't worked out to bad luck. With health and the Twins picking up half the remaining two years of his contract, throwing in a sold C+ or B- prospect, they might receive back salary and 40 man spot relief plus a B+ or A- prospect. If they play it right, they might even end up with a RP of the equivalent mentioned above without fighting the FA crowd.

 

2* It was mentioned making trades of little nothings for something. It's not about that. It's about letting the chaffe walk away, or being traded away, to make way for the new crop.

 

3* Even with some possible early '16 time at AAA, it's not hard to see the bulk of the Twins roster. Catcher is still, and possibly the only, position where there is a question mark. I am a Suzuki fan as the guy commands respect and is tough as nails. And at the end of the day, he can achieve that while still being better than Butera level offensively. But this is the ONE position where the team could look for a real upgrade.

 

THIS is where we have to look at Plouffe and the rest of the Twins prospects to put together a package to bring in a young catcher who can make a difference.

 

Could the Twins put together a package with Plouffe...and without Plouffe...to bring in a talented young catcher? Is there enough depth? I suspect there is. This is the one BOLD MOVE I think TR has to make along with moving Nolasco and bringing in a RP or two.

 

I honestly believe, a couple FA's for the pen, a veteran LH hitting bench player.....and help at catcher just about does it for '16. Is that a big or semi-big trade? Or is it keeping all assets and siginging someone like AJ for one year and seeing how the prospects in the system respond for another year?

[brvama]

Excellent, Doc!  . 

[howieramone2]

I believe the starting rotation will be TBD, Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco/Milone with Duffey and May in the pen and Berrios first man up. I'm hopeful Meyer has a Hickslike rehab and gets into the mix no later than the trade deadline.

 

I have no doubt TR will go for the jugular next season. The info provided by our very own Jeremy that our favorite team was pursing a front of the rotation upgrade was good news, as was the knowledge they would try to eliminate a large question mark by moving Nolasco.

[RJM96]

The league isn't exactly filled with teams who have a multitude of young catchers. The list of those teams in need of a starting third baseman is even smaller. It's easy to say "Oh let's trade Plouffe and maybe some prospects for a young catcher", but the question is, who?