What a James Shields Trade Could Look Like

[RJM96]

Padres receive:

SP Ricky Nolasco

SP Kohl Stewart

OF Oswaldo Arcia

 

Twins receive:

SP James Shields

 

I would love to get back Hedges in a deal with the Padres but it just doesn't seem realistic at this point. I could maybe see adding Plouffe to the deal to bring back Norris, but the Padres don't seem to have any need for a (good but not great) 30 year old third baseman who may or may not be past his prime.

 

The Padres get out of James Shields's contract a few years early and get a promising arm for their future. Ricky Nolasco is back home in the national league where he belongs. Arcia will provide pop to a Padres lineup for years to come.

 

The Twins bolster their rotation and make the Nolasco accusition seem worthwhile.

 

I love this trade. It was rumored at the deadline and it just makes so much sense for both teams.

[drjim]

I'm not sure it looks exactly like this, seems light for the Padres, but there is certainly a trade to be made between the two teams.

 

I wonder if they might like Santana or Polanco as a way to get back Hedges. 

 

And not saying that is the whole deal, but Twins have some pieces to deal and Padres have some that the Twins might want. They also have Benoit on an $8 mil option, might be a little too much though.

[RJM96]

I'm not sure it looks exactly like this, seems light for the Padres, but there is certainly a trade to be made between the two teams.

 

I wonder if they might like Santana or Polanco as a way to get back Hedges.

 

And not saying that is the whole deal, but Twins have some pieces to deal and Padres have some that the Twins might want. They also have Benoit on an $8 mil option, might be a little too much though.

So...

 

Padres receive:

SP Ricky Nolasco

SS Jorge Polanco

SP Kohl Stewart

OF Oswaldo Arcia

 

Twins Receive:

SP James Shields

C Austin Hedges

 

Does this work? What other Twins prospects might the Padres have interest in?

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea why the Twins do the first trade. They don't need another highly paid, old, veteran, number 3/4 pitcher.

 

the second trade is only interesting because the Twins might get a catcher.....

[RJM96]

I have no idea why the Twins do the first trade. They don't need another highly paid, old, veteran, number 3/4 pitcher.

 

the second trade is only interesting because the Twins might get a catcher.....

Uhm they get rid of Nolasco.

 

James Shields is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.

 

No, he probably won't be in a couple of years, but he will be better than Nolasco.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why exactly do the Padres need to "get out of James Shields's contract a few years early" as you say?  It only lasts 3 more years guaranteed, so swapping him for 2 years of a lesser (albeit less expensive) pitcher in Nolasco is hardly a clear plus for them.  (Shields also has an opt-out after 2016, and while it's unlikely he would exercise it at his age, it's not inconceivable if he stays durable and productive next year, especially if SD doesn't improve.)

 

Your follow-up comment that "James Shields is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball" only confuses the issue more.

 

Additionally, the Padres have zero room for Arcia on their MLB roster, and he's out of options next spring.  I mean, the Padres might take a flier on him if he's essentially free, but you can probably leave him off this trade proposal, he's not really adding value.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Both trades are awful.  The Twins actually have a fair amount of intriguing young arms at or near MLB right now (May, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, Milone), with a solid passel potentially 2-3 years away (Gonsalves, Batts, Stewart, Thorpe, Jorge).  Trading for Shields (and having to pay him $21M for the next 3 years) is a horrible idea unless the Padres are taking at least 2 bad contracts back AND including a catcher.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Uhm they get rid of Nolasco.

James Shields is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.

No, he probably won't be in a couple of years, but he will be better than Nolasco.

 

Shields (out of 83 qualified pitchers) is 52nd in ERA, 62nd in WHIP, 65th in FIP, 69th in WAR, and 81st in bb/9.  Which of those numbers screams "one of the best starting pitchers in baseball" to you?

[howieramone2]

So...

 

Padres receive:

SP Ricky Nolasco

SS Jorge Polanco

SP Kohl Stewart

OF Oswaldo Arcia

 

Twins Receive:

SP James Shields

C Austin Hedges

 

Does this work? What other Twins prospects might the Padres have interest in?

I like this deal. Nolasco is not sunk costs, but at this time is damaged goods. If he comes back healthy as a 4/5 he is still worth 6-8 million per year. I like Shields as a 2/3 we can move in front of a very underestimated Santana.

 

Good post!

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't get this.  This just adds to the rotation glut.

[SF Twins Fan]

The only way I'd trade for Shields is if the Twins can include Nolasco and Hughes to get out from under both contracts. I'm assuming the Padres wouldn't accept this deal even if the Twins added a few good prospects with Polanco, Arcia and Stewart. If they did it would then free up a rotation spot for the Twins. Trading for another aging, expensive pitcher with a long contract to get rid of Nolasco doesn't make sense unless they're able to get rid of two contracts. The Twins have May, Milone, Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, Santana, Hughes and Nolasco signed for next season so they need to move at least two of those players to take on another pitcher.

[RJM96]

Shields (out of 83 qualified pitchers) is 52nd in ERA, 62nd in WHIP, 65th in FIP, 69th in WAR, and 81st in bb/9. Which of those numbers screams "one of the best starting pitchers in baseball" to you?

Statistically speaking, no this year he is not one of the best pitchers in baseball. From a talent standpoint, I think he is. The guy has 11 wins and 194 strikeouts on a down year. Kyle Gibson is currently leading the Twins with 119.

[ashbury]

This year Shields pitches in about as favorable a home park as possible, and has put up a 3.90 ERA. His road ERA is terrible. He's 33 and this would be consistent with entering a decline phase. A very real possibility would be one decent season out of his next three, ages 34-36. This would be worse than keeping Nolasco, IMO.

[RJM96]

Additionally, the Padres have zero room for Arcia on their MLB roster, and he's out of options next spring. I mean, the Padres might take a flier on him if he's essentially free, but you can probably leave him off this trade proposal, he's not really adding value.

Justin Upton is a soon to be free agent.

[tobi0040]

Shields has an ERA under 4.00.  He is striking out 9.6 guys per 9.  Please, please can we stop acting like Ricky Nolasco plus a guy that could not make our team (Arcia) is going to get him in a trade?

 

And some want to throw in an actual catching prospect coming our way for the Polanco and Stewart, who has not even remotely been impressive thus far?

 

The reality is Arcia has likely been on the market all year with no takers.  Nolasco has negative trade value.  Shields is at least hovering around league average (95 ERA+), which by the way is higher than Nolasco's prior to his two years of an ERA over 5.00

[RJM96]

Shields has an ERA under 4.00. He is striking out 9.6 guys per 9. Please, please can we stop acting like Ricky Nolasco plus a guy that could not make our team (Arcia) is going to get him in a trade?

 

And some want to throw in an actual catching prospect coming our way for the Polanco and Stewart, who has not even remotely been impressive thus far?

 

The reality is Arcia has likely been on the market all year with no takers. Nolasco has negative trade value. Shields is at least hovering around league average (95 ERA+), which by the way is higher than Nolasco's prior to his two years of an ERA over 5.00

Good post. Thankyou for actually contributing to the thread and not just hating on James Shields.

 

If we were to perform some kind of a Nolasco for Shields swap, (and I'm not necessarily saying this is an excellent idea, just another option) who do you think we have to give up?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Justin Upton is a soon to be free agent.

They still have Wil Myers and Matt Kemp.  I wouldn't count on them putting Myers back in CF if Justin Upton leaves.

[laloesch]

 

I don't get this.  This just adds to the rotation glut.

 

 

I don't either.  If anything the Twins need to be unloading starters not trading for more overpaid mid 30's veterans.  This deal stinks for the Twins.

[DaveW]

Said it before, shields would be a great get, he instantly becomes the staff ace

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Statistically speaking, no this year he is not one of the best pitchers in baseball. From a talent standpoint, I think he is. The guy has 11 wins and 194 strikeouts on a down year. Kyle Gibson is currently leading the Twins with 119.

 

Are you really using wins as a metric in assessing pitcher performance?  You might as well look at HBP's to judge the worth of a hitter.  And who cares if he's striking out more than a batter/inning if it's not having a positive impact on his performance--which based on the numbers I shared it isn't?  And if Shields is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, why isn't he better at, well, pitching?

[RJM96]

Are you really using wins as a metric in assessing pitcher performance? You might as well look at HBP's to judge the worth of a hitter. And who cares if he's striking out more than a batter/inning if it's not having a positive impact on his performance--which based on the numbers I shared it isn't? And if Shields is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, why isn't he better at, well, pitching?

You're twisting my words bro. You'd rather have Ricky Nolasco than James Shields. Go Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

If he's one of the best pitchers in the game, why the heck would the Padres trade him?

[USAFChief]

IF a trade based around Nolasco+ for Shields could be worked, sign me up.

 

There is very little likelihood Shields doesn't outperform Nolasco over the next couple years, IMO.

 

But I think if SD wants to get out from under his contract, someone will offer them a better deal than that.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're twisting my words bro. You'd rather have Ricky Nolasco than James Shields. Go Twins.

 

No, we don't want ANOTHER old, mediocre, expensive pitcher......that's the point people are making. We have May, Berrios, Duffey in line....we don't need to tie up another spot with another number 3/4 guy.

[RJM96]

If he's one of the best pitchers in the game, why the heck would the Padres trade him?

Why did the Tigers trade David Price? Why did the Phillies trade Cole Hamels?

[RJM96]

No, we don't want ANOTHER old, mediocre, expensive pitcher......that's the point people are making. We have May, Berrios, Duffey in line....we don't need to tie up another spot with another number 3/4 guy.

Okay point made. So do we just cut Nolasco?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Okay point made. So do we just cut Nolasco?

 

I don't know what I'd do with Ricky, but trading him for another, possibly better but longer term, version of himself is not on my list of things I'd do.

[Vanimal46]

I thought the thing with San Diego was unknown pitchers can go there and achieve good results? (a la Tim Stauffer) Shields has gone there this year and has put up his career worst FIP 4.40, career worst BB/9 3.5, highest WHIP 1.34 in 5 years, and has given up 29 HR's in a notably pitcher-friendly ballpark. Some of that I'm sure can be explained by a bad team and defense behind him, but it doesn't give me a lot of confidence that he's going to return to elite status heading into his age 34 season......

[drock2190]

Shields is overrated. Sure his K rate looks good but that is hugely boosted by the beginning of the season where he was striking a lot out of batters out. Since then he's been rather mediocre.

 

You guys think Kyle Gibson has been rather bad this 2nd half?

 

Shields is right there with him. Same WHIP but ones getting rather lucky with baserunners while the other is suffering bad luck. In fact, Gibson's underlying numbers are slightly better. 

 

Still want to trade for 21 million a year James Shields?

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't get this.  This just adds to the rotation glut.

That is a kind way to put it in my opinion.   This is a horrible idea.