To trade or not to trade Plouffe this offseason.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Right now he is a solid 3B and Sano is an outstanding DH.  Until the Twins have someone step up to DH (Vargas and/or Arcia), there is little reason to make any kind of change.

 

 

The Twins have more players for the corner positions than they know what to do with.  It would seem to me that having flexibility at the DH, instead of having one guy locked into it, would be pretty beneficial.

[tobi0040]

I think Plouffe's 10-12 ranking or so at 3B is about as good as it will get.  In two years he will likely command $10M or more a year.  So from a value and trade perspective, it won't get any better than right now.

 

So it comes down to how we view Sano at 3B and what we can get for him.  Then you make an educated decision based on that.  Obviously a top catching prospect or catcher would help this team a great deal.

[Major League Ready]

What if we sign Chris Davis to protect Sano?  We get quite a bit better offensively and improve our roster construction.  Of course, we also gain other assets to improve the team long-term.  Gerardo Parra would also be decent as a DH and back-up outfielder.  Seems like a lot better plan that just hanging on to Plouffe.

[tobi0040]

 

What if we sign Chris Davis to protect Sano?  We get quite a bit better offensively and improve our roster construction.  Of course, we also gain other assets to improve the team long-term.  Gerardo Parra would also be decent as a DH and back-up outfielder.  Seems like a lot better plan that just hanging on to Plouffe.

 

That is just it. Plouffe has been a .740 OPS guy the last two years.  Move Sano to 3B and even an internal option like Vargas or Arcia could match Plouffe's numbers.

 

It would seem relatively easy to platoon the DH spot and have an .800 OPS there.  Especially if our OF next year is Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks.  We have no need for an athletic OF that can play all three positions because all three guys could play in CF.

 

Or go out and sign a big thumper too.

[Mike Sixel]

Platoon the DH spot with 2 guys that can't play the field, I just want to see if that is your suggestion?

 

I'd rather have a guy that can play 3B and can hit some......

 

and I think we are all counting our chickens early on Hick's turn around, esp if he's playing a corner spot.....

[tobi0040]

 

Platoon the DH spot with 2 guys that can't play the field, I just want to see if that is your suggestion?

 

I'd rather have a guy that can play 3B and can hit some......

 

and I think we are all counting our chickens early on Hick's turn around, esp if he's playing a corner spot.....

 

With the athletic OF, I think your 4th OF can be a thumper that can platoon there or DH, and be the bench bat this team desperately needs.

[howieramone2]

We have no idea how good Sano is defensively at 3B. The way he is currently being handled is keeping us in the hunt and will again next season. If Arcia, Vargas, or even a committee prove they can outperform Plouffe offensively, then make a trade. If it's not broken, don't fix it.

[TheLeviathan]

DH should be an open competition between Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas next year.  Trading Plouffe this offseason is the ideal way to solve some log jams and hopefully add a need position.

[DocBauer]

To improve at catcher, Plouffe is probably their biggest and best trade chip. There are three ways to improve at catcher for 2016.

 

1) Trade Plouffe and maybe another smaller piece or two

 

2). Keep Plouffe to further deepen the lineup and team in general, but deal from the depth of the organization. Arcia still holds potential and value despite a bad season and a slip in current market value. Polanco has real value. T Harrisson has previously been on several top 20 prospect lists. ABW is a bit of an enigma be very intriguing. Starting with Duffey, there are decent arms in the rotation and pen from Rochester on down, (not named Berrios) that should hold value. A package of 4-5 for 1-2? Especially for a team in rebuild mode.

 

3) Sign another veteran such as AJ, (there are a few other OK options) to team with Suzuki for another season. More veteran experience and leadership, and almost guaranteed better offensive production that what we have received this year. Then re-assess at mid-season or next off season.

 

The problem with trading Plouffe is not Sano. He will be OK at defense and get better. The problem is shorting the lineup another quality hitter when our lineup is becoming more and more talented and potential filled but also very young. (Hunter and Plouffe gone, Mauer and Dozier are the only vets besides Suzuki) It's much, much easier to move Plouffe if:

 

1) The powerful, switch hitting Vargas has learned anything this season and can carry through with his strong finish this year and in to 2016.

 

2) A second chance with success from Arcia as a LH DH/occassional OF and/or Pinto as a RH PH/DH/3rd catcher. These two could offer hitting, power and bench bat depth.

 

3) A veteran FA bat to be a primary DH.

 

Option 3, in some ways, is the easiest and safest way to go. But it's my least favorite as I'd rather keeping giving as many ABs to the youngsters on this intriguing, vastly improved and still improving young ball club.

[drjim]

 

DH should be an open competition between Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas next year.  Trading Plouffe this offseason is the ideal way to solve some log jams and hopefully add a need position.

 

I agree with this and would add a 4th OF signee as well.

 

There is certainly risk that none of those three mentioned (in addition to the three starting OF) will do much, but a platoon DH type bat is the one type of bat that can move in July.

 

Reading between the lines in some of the media coverage the Twins are probably higher on Sano's 3B defense than we might think, but it made no sense to move Plouffe out of the way for the rest of this season. The offseason is a different situation if they can get a sp or c.

[howieramone2]

DH should be an open competition between Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas next year.  Trading Plouffe this offseason is the ideal way to solve some log jams and hopefully add a need position.

If there truly is a logjam at DH, then make the deal at the trade deadline. Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas are not proven major leaguers. They are shiny new things.

 

Also, there have been any number of top prospects, who have been unable to remain at 3B. It makes no sense to take a step backwards, when we already have a good 3B. Let this playout.

[Turd Furgeson]

 

DH should be an open competition between Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas next year.  Trading Plouffe this offseason is the ideal way to solve some log jams and hopefully add a need position.

 

I could see Kepler being in competition for one of the outfield spots too. We'll have to see how Buxton, Rosario and Hicks do next year. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Right now he is a solid 3B and Sano is an outstanding DH.  Until the Twins have someone step up to DH (Vargas and/or Arcia), there is little reason to make any kind of change.

 

The real question is whether the Twins extend him or sign him to a one-year deal. 

 

The team will listen to offers and wait for something that is to their liking.

 

It is really that simple. 

Vargas' career OPS is .717 and Plouffe's is .727.  That is already very close.  BUT, Vargas did that during his age 23 and 24 seasons. Plouffe didn't have an OPS above .700 until he was 26. That by itself is not a reason to trade Plouffe (the reason is the value you could get in return), obviously, but it is also not a reason to NOT trade Plouffe.

[nicksaviking]

 

If there truly is a logjam at DH, then make the deal at the trade deadline. Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas are not proven major leaguers. They are shiny new things.

Also, there have been any number of top prospects, who have been unable to remain at 3B. It makes no sense to take a step backwards, when we already have a good 3B. Let this playout.

 

At the trade deadline, are you talking about 11 months from now? the Twins are going to need to start making decisions on the young players this offseason, not next July.  How are the young guys going to prove themselves if they don't get a chance to play?  Moving the veteran players at over-stocked positions is what smart teams do.

 

Besides, the Twins already have another fall-back option at 3B if Sano can't handle it.  His name is Edwardo Escobar and a case can easily be made that he's every bit the player that Plouffe is.

[John Bonnes]

It sure feels like we're counting a lot of chickens before they hatch. Kepler doesn't have a bat above AA. Arcia has been a disaster. Rosario still like a 7:1 K:BB ratio, so who knows how long his success lasts? Vargas fell flat couple of times this year. Hell, even Buxton looks like he might not be ready offensively for this level right now. 

 

So why are we making room for any of them by trading Plouffe?

 

It seems comparable to trading away Escobar to make room for Santana and/or Polanco. 

 

It's one thing if someone wants Plouffe and is making an offer you can't refuse, or filling another critical need like catcher. But I'm not shopping him for a few more prospects right now. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

If there truly is a logjam at DH, then make the deal at the trade deadline. Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas are not proven major leaguers. They are shiny new things.

Also, there have been any number of top prospects, who have been unable to remain at 3B. It makes no sense to take a step backwards, when we already have a good 3B. Let this playout.

 

I was referring to the OF logjam.  Going forward I prefer to invest at-bats in Vargas, Arcia, or Kepler than two more of Plouffe before we let him walk.  

 

If Plouffe was 26 and in this position I probably don't recommend we deal him, but the truth is that he's about to be a former Twin in two years.  (Or should be)  Now would be a good time to capitalize on him and free up the DH spot for some combination of our OF/1B/3B logjam.  

 

At some point you have to trust your young talent.  If we don't, then we shouldn't be worried about keeping Plouffe around to compete anyway.

[Turd Furgeson]

 

It sure feels like we're counting a lot of chickens before they hatch. Kepler doesn't have a bat above AA. Arcia has been a disaster. Rosario still like a 7:1 K:BB ratio, so who knows how long his success lasts? Vargas fell flat couple of times this year. Hell, even Buxton looks like he might not be ready offensively for this level right now. 

 

So why are we making room for any of them by trading Plouffe?

 

It seems comparable to trading away Escobar to make room for Santana and/or Polanco. 

 

It's one thing if someone wants Plouffe and is making an offer you can't refuse, or filling another critical need like catcher. But I'm not shopping him for a few more prospects right now. 

 

Sure, it's a bit of a gamble but the risk is not so great. Sano would have to be an abject failure defensively to have less value than Plouffe at third base next year, or Plouffe would have to randomly breakout and have a huge season. I don't think either of those two things are that likely. Sano has looked pretty good defensively in the few games he's played, and from various scouting reports I've read over the years about his defense, people do think he could stick at third for several years. 

 

So really the main thing you are relying on is someone to have more value with their bat than Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is a solidly league average hitter with a 102.75 wRC+ over the last four seasons. Arcia had a 109 wRC+ in 2014, so even with him you have a pretty good chance he can be more valuable offensively than Plouffe. I think any one of these guys have a decent chance to at least be league average hitters. 

 

Plus we're talking about selling high on Plouffe and getting an asset back for him because I doubt we plan on signing him again in two years. 

[Willihammer]

 

It sure feels like we're counting a lot of chickens before they hatch. Kepler doesn't have a bat above AA. Arcia has been a disaster. Rosario still like a 7:1 K:BB ratio, so who knows how long his success lasts? Vargas fell flat couple of times this year. Hell, even Buxton looks like he might not be ready offensively for this level right now. 

 

So why are we making room for any of them by trading Plouffe?

 

It seems comparable to trading away Escobar to make room for Santana and/or Polanco. 

 

It's one thing if someone wants Plouffe and is making an offer you can't refuse, or filling another critical need like catcher. But I'm not shopping him for a few more prospects right now. 

Agree. It all seems a tad premature. Sure if someone blows you away then trade him but I see no need to actively shop Plouffe more than anyone else. Next July if Arcia, Rosario, Kepler, Vargas, force the issue then go ahead and re-visit then. In the meantime, bank the 2-4 surplus WAR from keeping Plouffe at 3B and Sano at DH. There are cheap defensive/framing type C's available 1-2 year deals every winter.

[HitInAPinch]

Trading your starting third baseman while you're still in the battle for the last wildcard spot is one of the more bizarre ideas I've heard.  

 

Play out the season and let Plouffe and Sano slug it out in Spring Training 2016. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

No one wants to deal him right now - the stance is to aggressively shop him this offseason.

 

You don't HAVE to deal him, keep him if you don't get something that helps in 2016.  But they better shop him.

[gagu]

 

Trading your starting third baseman while you're still in the battle for the last wildcard spot is one of the more bizarre ideas I've heard.  

 

Play out the season and let Plouffe and Sano slug it out in Spring Training 2016. 

"-to-trade-or-not-to-trade-plouffe-this-offseason"

Unless I missed something, no one is talking about trading him this month.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm fine with trading Plouffe if the deal is right. I'm fine with keeping Plouffe if the deal isn't right.

 

I won't get too upset either way, really. There are good points on both sides of the argument.

[kab21]

 

Just because teams know we need a catcher doesn't mean we hide trade interest. And just because the market for him looks scarce by us checking team rosters doesn't mean that's true this offseason.

The smart thing to do is shop him for what we need and find interest along the way. Teams that want him will call and teams that have what we want will call. Then you sort it out and make it work.

I have never ever ever ever said that we hide our trade interest for a catcher. 

 

What we need to do is approach the 4-5 most likely teams that would want Plouffe and work out the most valuable return for him.  That is how you end up with an AJ type trade.  If a catcher or SS is in that system (anywhere) then great but it is almost for sure that the Twins won't land an MLB ready starter or MLB player in return (aside from a Norris for Plouffe deal).

 

Very little is going to change for team needs in 2 months.  Donaldson, headley, Sandoval, longoria, Machado, Moustakas, Beltre/Gallo, Seager and Lawrie are going to be starting 3B for 9 of 14 other teams.  Those guys have spots basically locked down.  That leaves HOU (Valbuena), DET (Castellanos), CHW, CLE, LAA (resign Freese?).  This is of course just the AL but the NL is the same story.  There just aren't that many teams that will be looking.

 

My main point is that the prevailing wisdom that is constantly repeated around here is unobtainable.  Plouffe will almost certainly not be traded to make the 2016 team better or for a C or SS upgrade.  If you want to trade Plouffe to open up 3B for Sano then that is an argument.

 

I will go one step further.  the Twins should focus on recreating the AJ trade and go after a couple of lower level prospects with upside in the hopes of finding a Liriano. If nothing else these are great assets to have to trade for MLB weaknesses. Ironically the board would erupt if the Twins acquired a RP like Nathan in the deal.

[Major League Ready]

 

I have never ever ever ever said that we hide our trade interest for a catcher. 

 

What we need to do is approach the 4-5 most likely teams that would want Plouffe and work out the most valuable return for him.  That is how you end up with an AJ type trade.  If a catcher or SS is in that system (anywhere) then great but it is almost for sure that the Twins won't land an MLB ready starter or MLB player in return (aside from a Norris for Plouffe deal).

 

Very little is going to change for team needs in 2 months.  Donaldson, headley, Sandoval, longoria, Machado, Moustakas, Beltre/Gallo, Seager and Lawrie are going to be starting 3B for 9 of 14 other teams.  Those guys have spots basically locked down.  That leaves HOU (Valbuena), DET (Castellanos), CHW, CLE, LAA (resign Freese?).  This is of course just the AL but the NL is the same story.  There just aren't that many teams that will be looking.

 

My main point is that the prevailing wisdom that is constantly repeated around here is unobtainable.  Plouffe will almost certainly not be traded to make the 2016 team better or for a C or SS upgrade.  If you want to trade Plouffe to open up 3B for Sano then that is an argument.

 

I will go one step further.  the Twins should focus on recreating the AJ trade and go after a couple of lower level prospects with upside in the hopes of finding a Liriano. If nothing else these are great assets to have to trade for MLB weaknesses. Ironically the board would erupt if the Twins acquired a RP like Nathan in the deal.

I agree completely.  IMO, most fans, especially the ones here are too short term focused.  It's all about the now.  That's not a good way to build a consistent winner.  For me, the decision to trade Plouffe starts with Free Agency.  If we can get Davis or even Parra, we are better off in both the short-term and long-term by trading Plouffe.  The roster construction is better.  We need a big bat behind Sano.   The only problem is that it will be difficult to give Vargas a shot if we sign a DH but that’s a nice problem to have.

 

There is also a case to be made that Vargas would be as good offensively as Plouffe in 2016 and probably better than Plouffe long-term.  If in fact you believe Vargas could equal Plouffe offensively in 2016, it’s a no brainer.  Vargas appears from his stats to have improved his plate discipline considerably.  His OBP is excellent.  If Vargas can just equal Plouffe, we gain in 3 ways.

1) We have 5 years of control on Vargas vs 3 with Plouffe
2) Vargas will be far less expensive for 2 of those years.  We can use the $ in free agency.  He will also be cheaper in his arbitration years as a DH vs a 3B unless he is much more productive which would be even better news.
3) We gain assets that will provide production later or can be used as trade assets.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Right now he is a solid 3B and Sano is an outstanding DH.  Until the Twins have someone step up to DH (Vargas and/or Arcia), there is little reason to make any kind of change.

 

The real question is whether the Twins extend him or sign him to a one-year deal. 

 

The team will listen to offers and wait for something that is to their liking.

 

It is really that simple. 

Sano is a prospect and needs to continue developing fielding somewhere. He is too good of a fielder to not at least play first, preferably third. Mauer is an OK first basemen, but is ailing or something. I think Plouffe or Sano could become a better first baseman and hit better than Joe very quickly.

[snarkerbarnyard]

 

I said almost the exact same thing in another blog 4-6 weeks ago. Plouffe becomes our Utility player, and allows rest for 1b, 3b, and OF. He allows our starters to rest without hurting the lineup! When he isn't playing a position he can be the DH that day. I think Suzuki and Pinto will do good enough 1 more year until Turner is ready, and who knows, maybe Turner goes to AFL and really blossoms like Rosario did.

Kepler, ABW, Polanco, Michael, and Harrison will probably all go to AAA next season. Vargas moves up to the 25 man next year and DH's 2-3 times a week and provides a nice bench bat. Arcia needs to be traded! No room him. We don't need 5 DH's!

2016 Positional Players:

1. Buxton - CF

2. Rosario - LF

3. Mauer - 1b

4. Sano - 3b

5. Dozier - 2b

6. Plouffe - DH/Utility - he could sub at 3b/1b/OF and then insert Vargas on those days at DH

7. Hicks - RF

8. Escobar - SS

9. Suzuki - C

Bench: Santana, Pinto, Vargas, Hunter (assuming we resign him) otherwise Shane Robinson/Nunez

Using Plouffe in a utility role is a waste of his value. Because he's a better 3B than Sano, if they keep him, that's where he's playing. Because I think the Twin's goal should be to inject as much offense into the lineup as they can without playing people completely out of position, I think they should trade Plouffe and pursue a better DH bat. Letting an above average 3B be our utility man would be a terrible misallocation of resources. He's worth the most to the Twins as our starting 3B or in a trade.

[Willihammer]

Let's get one thing straight - a DH would not have to "equal Plouffe." He would have to equal Plouffe's bat + the difference in Plouffe's 3B glove vs. Sano's. That is not any old .740 batter like Gerardo Parra and maybe not even a Chris Davis if he lays an egg which he is more than capable of doing.

[Major League Ready]

 

Let's get one thing straight - a DH would not have to "equal Plouffe." He would have to equal Plouffe's bat + the difference in Plouffe's 3B glove vs. Sano's. That is not any old .740 batter like Gerardo Parra and maybe not even a Chris Davis if he lays an egg which he is more than capable of doing.

Let’s get a second thing straight.  You completely ignored the value of whatever we get in trade.  Let’s assume we get fair or equal value back and you have ignored a very significant if not the most significant part of the equation.  I presume you are failing to recognize this because you are only considered the immediate or short term.  This is a flawed approach to managing assets and applying it limits the team long-term success.   There is going to be a season after 2015 and another after 2016 and so on.   I would rather be better for many years to come than a little better next year.

 

The difference defensively between Plouffe is an important variable here and our individual assumption  obviously skews how we perceive the impact on the team.  We are all guessing but from what I have seen, my guess is that he would be a fair amount worse in 2016 and the gap would likely be gone by the end of 2017.   I think a premium bat would more than make up for that difference, especially batting behind Sano.   Parra was not a good example although he had an 838 OPS with Milwaukee.  I view him as a worst case scenario but someone we could probably get.

[USAFChief]

I'm not interested in trading Plouffe if the return is minor league talent that might be useful in 2019.

 

Jeebus, can we ever worry about winning actual games now, instead of theoretical ones far off in someone's imagination?

 

Plouffe can be dealt, but if so, the return better be on the field, and producing, in 2016.

[drjim]

 

I'm not interested in trading Plouffe if the return is minor league talent that might be useful in 2019.

Jeebus, can we ever worry about winning actual games now, instead of theoretical ones far off in someone's imagination?

Plouffe can be dealt, but if so, the return better be on the field, and producing, in 2016.

 

Fear not, the Twins aren't going to trade Plouffe this offseason for prospects, this isn't 2003 anymore. If he's traded it will be for a SP or possibly a C.