The call for Kaiser Kepler and the banter begging for Berrios

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Service time considerations for pitchers are extremely speculative.  Should the Twins have worried about service time with Liriano over 2005-2006?  He got injured which suppressed his value anyway, and slow rehab meant they were able to option him and recover a good amount of service time.

 

Also, barring injury the Twins are unlikely to change their MLB rotation 3 weeks into 2016.  If Berrios starts in the minors for 2016, he will probably be down for 2 months.  Which means you could still have that potential 7th year of control even if pitches out of the MLB pen this September.

One of five starting pitchers tends to be either injured or ineffective by early to mid May, which allows Berrios to get a shot relatively early in the season.

 

Given that it's all of 3-6 weeks but adds a year of service time, I don't think that will kill the 2016 Twins.

 

Yeah, maybe Berrios gets injured but I'll trade a few weeks in 2016 for a year in 2023-ish any time.

[TRex]

 

This is Berrios' third full pro season.  He's healthy and does not appear to be fatiguing in the least.  I get gradual innings control, I don't understand the hurry to shut him down completely.

 

Luis Severino has been ranked similarly to Berrios, is virtually the same age, had been pitching at the same levels the past two seasons, and had notably fewer innings than Berrios prior to 2015.  And the Yankees certainly aren't looking to shut him down as a precautionary measure during a MLB pennant race.

This is a good point, and would be even better if not for the fact that the Yankee player development group are not known as pitching savants like those in St. Louis and Tampa.

[JoeSed]

I am not a Twins fan. (I am a Cardinals fan but vacation in Ft. Myers and attend games at Hammond Stadium)   I first saw Kepler play on the back fields during ST two years ago.  This year I have been to 3 Chattanooga games while I was traveling on business.  This kid is legit and should be called up IMMEDIATELY.  Shane Robinson and Torii Hunter are not the future, and aren't really adding much anyway.  Why wait until next year to see if this kid can make it in the majors?  By exposing him now you better understand your needs and strengths for next year and maybe capitalize on a .800+ OPS.  Right now the Twins have an embarrassment of riches in the OF.  These players need exposure at the highest level to continue challenging them in their development.  Kepler has nothing left to prove in AA.  AAA is a pit stop and a waste of time.  

 

This reminds me of the Indians depth at 1B in the late 90s.  Jim Thome, Ritchie Sexson and Sean Casey: they could all play at the major league level.  The Twins need establish these players' value and determine their OF situation for the future.  They have 2 or 3 all-stars waiting to develop.  They will spoil if left too long in the minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is a good point, and would be even better if not for the fact that the Yankee player development group are not known as pitching savants like those in St. Louis and Tampa.

Huh?

 

St. Louis has been the poster child for using pitching prospects in the MLB pen.

 

And Tampa, despite being one of the most frugal MLB organizations, has called up the following pitching prospects for September pennant races:

 

2008: David Price

2009: Wade Davis

2010: Jeremy Hellickson

2011: Matt Moore

2012: Chris Archer

2013: Jake Odorizzi

 

Not sure what your point is here at all.

 

Also, while the Yankees get a bad rep over the usage of Hughes and Chamberlain, I think the record suggests maybe those two weren't as destined for stardom as the hype machine had us believe.  (And I'm not even suggesting the Twins use Berrios as the Yankees have pushed Severino -- all I am saying is don't shut him down.)

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Please reread my initial post. "The Kaiser" is what Kaiser Wilhelm was known by in the U.S. Of course I know that Kaiser means Caesar. And of course, "Fuhrer" means leader...

 

http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/NzUzWDUwMA==/z/-0cAAOxyA4ZRUgiK/$T2eC16VHJHYE9nzpeCjkBRUgiJsCG!~~60_35.JPG

 

Or we could just understand that Kaiser is a title, and not a reference to any one person.  If you insist it refer to one person, why not this man? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Beckenbauer

 

As for the poster you showed as proof that the Kaiser was "evil", how do you respond to the below posters, widely circulated by the US 25+ years after the one you showed.

 

https://artifactsjournal.missouri.edu/2012/03/wwii-propaganda-the-influence-of-racism/

 

There's tons more, just google "racist us war posters".  I haven't posted any here due to the highly offensive nature of them.

 

 

[Squirrel]

Goodness, people ... let's stick to topic. Unless you think that Doc's intent was to be derisive or mean-spirited, let's let this 'Kaiser' issue drop. I know it offends some, but if we removed everything that offended someone, or removed everything perceived as too positive or too negative, we'd have nothing left. Most every poster here posts with good intentions whether you like what is said or not. So let's keep that in mind, learn to give a little benefit of a doubt once in a while, and let some things go ... and keep to topic! If you think something was definitely meant in a mean spirit, report it; or if you want to have a discussion on player nicknames, start a new topic to disucss it. But let's not derail threads with these off-topic issues and make mountains out of molehills.

 

Thank you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Goodness, people ... let's stick to topic. Unless you think that Doc's intent was to be derisive or mean-spirited, let's let this 'Kaiser' issue drop. I know it offends some, but if we removed everything that offended someone, or removed everything perceived as too positive or too negative, we'd have nothing left. Most every poster here posts with good intentions whether you like what is said or not. So let's keep that in mind, learn to give a little benefit of a doubt once in a while, and let some things go ... and keep to topic! If you think something was definitely meant in a mean spirit, report it; or if you want to have a discussion on player nicknames, start a new topic to disucss it. But let's not derail threads with these off-topic issues and make mountains out of molehills.

 

Thank you.

On top of that, there were seven Kaisers between the Austrian and German Empires, the last of which were ousted 97 years ago.

 

It's only a title and an outdated one at that. If you believe it to be an insult, I'm not sure what to say. It's no different than Caesar... In fact, they're the same friggin' word in different languages.

 

In short, there are plenty of things in this world to find insulting. This is not one of them. Reel in the outrage and keep it on topic.

[twinssouth]

Kepler needs to come up. He's on the 40 man, can supply needed offense, it's a no brainer.

[Halsey Hall]

 

Kepler needs to come up. He's on the 40 man, can supply needed offense, it's a no brainer.

If you knew he'd provide offense better than someone here it might be a no brainer, but we don't know he'll be better than Mauer, Roserio, Buxton or Hunter.  Let him play out the season in AA and then bring him up when rosters expand.

[TRex]

 

Huh?

 

St. Louis has been the poster child for using pitching prospects in the MLB pen.

 

And Tampa, despite being one of the most frugal MLB organizations, has called up the following pitching prospects for September pennant races:

 

2008: David Price

2009: Wade Davis

2010: Jeremy Hellickson

2011: Matt Moore

2012: Chris Archer

2013: Jake Odorizzi

 

Not sure what your point is here at all.

 

Also, while the Yankees get a bad rep over the usage of Hughes and Chamberlain, I think the record suggests maybe those two weren't as destined for stardom as the hype machine had us believe.  (And I'm not even suggesting the Twins use Berrios as the Yankees have pushed Severino -- all I am saying is don't shut him down.)

My point was just that the Yankees NOT shutting down Severino (i.e. not having him on an innings limit) is not as forceful an argument against an innings limit for Berrios as would be the Cardinals or the Rays. I do think the Cards employ an inning limit, and they use the bullpen as a means of enacting it.

[Ncgo4]

September 1 or after the SL playoffs? To me, that is the only question. If the Twins have Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, and Hunter, I don't know that there would be many at-bats for Max. I would like to see him get some time with the big club. After his dominant season in AA, it should be his reward.

 

Keep Berrios in AAA. He should be up in mid-April of '16.

Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Hunter, Plouffe, Richardson, Sano, Mauer and Kepler. Easy. The first 3 in the outfield, Sano to third, Kepler to first and platoon Plouffe, Hunter & Mauer at DH and to fill in on occasion. Hunter, Plouffe & Mauer cannot hit worth a hoot so why, oh why, do we embrace this notion that they should for some reason start?

[birddog]

Great article. Kepler should be up as soon as rosters can increase. Look at the players we assigned to the Lookouts. I don't think we owe them any more this season. If we have the best coaches at the major league level, wouldn't you want your best young players to work with them asap? 

 

Doc brought up a good point with Berrios not being on the 40-man, who do we release? I'd love to see him, but it's a tough decision.  I figured there'd be a pitcher whom we could easily give up, but I'm not so sure. Maybe Shane Robinson? He may have some trade value after the season since he can play CF. Easy to criticize TR, but he has a very tough job. Maybe it's best to wait until next year to see Berrios.

[stringer bell]

 

Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Hunter, Plouffe, Richardson, Sano, Mauer and Kepler. Easy. The first 3 in the outfield, Sano to third, Kepler to first and platoon Plouffe, Hunter & Mauer at DH and to fill in on occasion. Hunter, Plouffe & Mauer cannot hit worth a hoot so why, oh why, do we embrace this notion that they should for some reason start?

Whose the Richardson guy? No, the Twins aren't going to bench or platoon their three most experienced hitters when they have a legit shot at the wild card.

[mudcat14]

Rochester should be eliminated from play-off consideration around September 1st.  One of Berrios' stated goals was to reach the majors this season.  With the success he's had across two levels, I think the Twins would be doing him a disservice if they don't reward him.  With the Cotts acquisition, Aaron Thompson is a likely candidate to be outrighted to give him a spot on the 40-man roster.  I actually think pitching occasionally out of the pen for 1-2 inning stints to finish out the season might be the ideal way to entrée Jose into the majors anyway.

 

Kepler needs to finish out Chattanooga's season, wherever it leads them.  Though he could very well be an upgrade to the Twins OF/1B/DH mix right now, competing for the Southern League Championship certainly has value as a learning experience for him as well.  I believe he has already surpassed any personal or organizational goals for this season and will enter 2016 as a viable MLB OF candidate whether he gets a taste this fall or not.

[gocgo]

If Berrios innings are a concern, why not bring him up and have him finish the year in the bullpen?  It gives him a flavor of the bigs, but doesn't burn him out.  It's not like he won't be able to be a starting pitcher next season.

[SwainZag]

 

Whose the Richardson guy? No, the Twins aren't going to bench or platoon their three most experienced hitters when they have a legit shot at the wild card.

Richardson has done great work! Give the man an extension already!

[Otto von Ballpark]

My point was just that the Yankees NOT shutting down Severino (i.e. not having him on an innings limit) is not as forceful an argument against an innings limit for Berrios as would be the Cardinals or the Rays. I do think the Cards employ an inning limit, and they use the bullpen as a means of enacting it.

Great, but I wasn't arguing against an innings limit (which as your Cardinal example shows is very different than a shutdown). Severino was just a comparable prospect in this pennant race who isn't getting shut down.

 

I think one might have trouble finding a prospect comparable to Berrios in health, level, and pro experience who got shut down in a pennant race.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Doc brought up a good point with Berrios not being on the 40-man, who do we release? I'd love to see him, but it's a tough decision. I figured there'd be a pitcher whom we could easily give up, but I'm not so sure. Maybe Shane Robinson? He may have some trade value after the season since he can play CF. Easy to criticize TR, but he has a very tough job. Maybe it's best to wait until next year to see Berrios.

Aaron Thompson is still on the 40-man roster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Berrios innings are a concern, why not bring him up and have him finish the year in the bullpen? It gives him a flavor of the bigs, but doesn't burn him out. It's not like he won't be able to be a starting pitcher next season.

Agreed. Although to keep his innings limit, they should have him up in the pen now. Each start they give him in Rochester takes away from the innings he could log in MLB.

 

It won't be a valid excuse to claim he's at his innings limit when the Rochester season ends, because it will have already been the Twins decision to let him log those innings in Rochester rather than the MLB pen (or spot starts).

[Craig Arko]

This thread is one of the best arguments I've seen that people absolutely must learn a second language.

 

Oh, and bring Max Kepler up when his team's playoffs are over, and Berrios next year.

[Oxtung]

Berries pitched 103 innings in 2013 and was worn down in the second half. In 2014, it is a bit hard to tell looking at his stats because he made the jump to AA midway through the year but it looks like he might have worn down a bit as well. His K:BB numbers decreased and his OPS against spiked in his second month at AA. He pitched 140 innings last year.

 

At this point he's pitched 148 outstanding innings and he can probably stretch that arm out for a few more starts but his history suggests that at some point he will tire. I think at this point I would leave Berrios at AAA this year for many of the reasons suggested and because I don't like the idea of burning service time due to a possible injury just to get 10-15 innings out of a prospect.

 

On the other hand Kepler is already on the 40 man and his K:BB rate makes me shake my head in wonder. I would definitely bring him up, even if it is to sit on the bench. Let him learn what he can because he will be needed in 2016. Somebody will regress or get hurt and given that he is already burning options years he needs to hit the ground running when he arrives. He has less time to learn before a decision has to be made compared to other prospects.

 

TL;DR

Berrios cya in 2016

Kepler what jersey number would you like?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Berries pitched 103 innings in 2013 and was worn down in the second half. In 2014, it is a bit hard to tell looking at his stats because he made the jump to AA midway through the year but it looks like he might have worn down a bit as well. His K:BB numbers decreased and his OPS against spiked in his second month at AA. He pitched 140 innings last year.

At this point he's pitched 148 outstanding innings and he can probably stretch that arm out for a few more starts but his history suggests that at some point he will tire.

I am sure all pitchers tire at some point.  Right now, Berrios doesn't look tired at all.  And if he's not likely to tire within the next 20 innings (the 20% increase over 2014) -- why not have them in MLB?

 

 

I don't like the idea of burning service time due to a possible injury just to get 10-15 innings out of a prospect.

You're letting fear rather than fact dictate your decision-making.  If you've got an actual concern about the pitcher's health (Gibson scuffling at AAA in 2011, or even just blowing past the standard innings progression), then go ahead and shut him down.  But with no evidence of elevated risk, and large potential benefits to a MLB pennant race, that's foolish.

 

And if Berrios suffers a major injury within his next 40 pro innings (which is when many suggest he should be in MLB regardless, by the end of April 2016), the "lost" service time will be the least of the Twins concerns about him.  Just look at the two oft-cited Twins examples -- Kubel in 2005 and Liriano in 2007.  The injury itself affected their careers far more than the service time spent injured (and indeed, both were optioned after they were healthy anyway, recovering some service time).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Look at what May is doing out of the pen for us now.  Give Berrios a couple weeks and he could be a real weapon out there too, when we desperately need it.  With nothing "lost" but a 40-man spot for a marginal player over the winter (there will be a few) and 30-40 days service time which could be easily recovered to begin 2016 anyway, I don't think you can hold back out of fear or precise service-time plotting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know the Pirates have been cited as a recent example of being cautious with young arms in a pennant race, but those were very different situations.

 

2012, Gerrit Cole.  Cole was drafted in 2011 and did not pitch as a pro that year, only 15 innings in the AFL.  So yeah, they probably wanted to cap him at around 132 innings across 3 levels in 2012.  (And Cole scuffled some at AA that August, and only made one appearance at AAA to finish the season, so he was hardly comfortable yet at the highest level of the minors.)

 

Glasnow is another one they appear to be holding back this season, although he has fewer pro innings than Berrios in the same number of pro seasons, and also had an ankle injury earlier this season (which I guess could mean he's further from his innings limit too, should they decide to call him up soon).

 

And Cole and Glasnow were both more "elite" prospects than Berrios, for what it's worth.

 

It's very hard to find guys comparable to Berrios experience, health, and level who were held back in a pennant race.

[Oxtung]

 

I am sure all pitchers tire at some point.  Right now, Berrios doesn't look tired at all.  And if he's not likely to tire within the next 20 innings (the 20% increase over 2014) -- why not have them in MLB?

 

 

You're letting fear rather than fact dictate your decision-making.  If you've got an actual concern about the pitcher's health (Gibson scuffling at AAA in 2011, or even just blowing past the standard innings progression), then go ahead and shut him down.  But with no evidence of elevated risk, and large potential benefits to a MLB pennant race, that's foolish.

 

And if Berrios suffers a major injury within his next 40 pro innings (which is when many suggest he should be in MLB regardless, by the end of April 2016), the "lost" service time will be the least of the Twins concerns about him.  Just look at the two oft-cited Twins examples -- Kubel in 2005 and Liriano in 2007.  The injury itself affected their careers far more than the service time spent injured (and indeed, both were optioned after they were healthy anyway, recovering some service time).

It's not "fear" driving my caution but rather a different assessment on the risk/reward spectrum.  I don't see 15 innings of his pitching in relief worth the loss of potential option years.  I'm not worried about whether he'll make super 2 status, that means little enough for a team that doesn't spend to it's full payroll potential.

 

That doesn't even take into account that this will be his first time up and it is just as likely (perhaps even more likely) that he is terrible rather than awesome, which you seem to be assuming.  In addition he has a past history of wearing down at the end of seasons which further increases the odds that he will be mediocre.

 

One other thing I just thought of, he has a history of struggling when he first arrives at a new level (which I would guess most prospects do).  It's a few weeks before he really picks things up.

 

In the end I see you seemingly making several assumptions.  First, he will not tire.  Second, he will not get hurt.  Third, he will be a large upgrade over whoever he replaces in the bullpen.  While those are all certainly possible I don't agree that 1 & 3 are likely and therefore 2 becomes a bigger issue.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That doesn't even take into account that this will be his first time up and it is just as likely (perhaps even more likely) that he is terrible rather than awesome, which you seem to be assuming.

I am not assuming that at all.  What I am saying is, it's worth finding out.  If he comes up and struggles, and doesn't look like he's adjusting well, then shut him down.  Small cost for a potentially nice benefit in 2015, given our current pitching staff.

 

 

In the end I see you seemingly making several assumptions.  First, he will not tire.  Second, he will not get hurt.  Third, he will be a large upgrade over whoever he replaces in the bullpen.  While those are all certainly possible I don't agree that 1 & 3 are likely and therefore 2 becomes a bigger issue.

I am not assuming he won't tire or won't get hurt, any more than you are assuming he will.

 

The Royals had an amazing bullpen last year.  Do you think they regret adding Finnegan to the mix for September and October?  I don't know if Berrios will react like May to a bullpen switch, but he's our best shot to add a few additional shutdown relief innings at this point.  I think we might wind up kicking ourselves if we don't even try it.  I doubt we'll wind up kicking ourselves over the lost 40-man spot over the winter and ~30 days MLB service time, if Berrios scuffles in a couple low-leverage appearances and then is shut down.