The call for Kaiser Kepler and the banter begging for Berrios

[DocBauer]

Yes...I love alliteration. Next...someone referred to Kepler as Kaiser the other day. I don't know if the nic-name could or should or will stick, but I thought it was funny.

 

Lots and lots and lots of speculation regarding these two top talents and when they will make their ML debuts. I felt it was a really good time to discuss some of the various aspects of the both of them. With Sano up and doing his thing...(where DO the Twins hid his phone booth for road games?)...and Buxton up and getting a chance to do his thing, these two ARE CURRENTLY the Twins top two MILB prospects. (All due respect to Meyer and the unfortunate and mixed season he is having) So what should the Twins do? And what do they, in fact, do?

 

Berrios:

 

To me, Berrios draws strong comparison to all time great Pedro Martinez. And it goes way beyond any Latin similarity. Pedro was listed at 5' 11" and 195 lbs, though I suspect that was dripping wet at with some form of Dr Scholls inserts in his cleats. But he flat out BROUGHT IT with velocity and nasty stuff. Forget lack of ideal size and height and ideal downward plane on delivery, etc. He was dominant. An ACE. He threw hard, and he did it for many innings, and for many years. And I'd have to say, a lot of that was just being athletic and smooth with a repeatable delivery.

 

Berrios is listed, doubt it's accurate, as 6' 0" and 185 lbs. I'm pretty sure the extra inch may be accurate, but I'm pretty sure the hard working and muscular Berrios has a good 10 lbs on any playing weight the slight Pedro ever had. But I digress. Like Martinez, Berrios BRINGS IT on a consistent basis. Like Martinez, there have been discussions about being able to do so consistently without an ideal frame of height, (and weight) to create the desired downward plane and ultimately, endurance as well. Thus far, like Pedro, reports of the ideal are made moot. This kid, like Pedro, has a competitive fire and an IT factor.

 

Two things come to mind above all others, in regard to reports or articles in Berrios. The first was a comment made by him before the season began as to how his goal was to reach the majors this season. (Doesn't sound the least bit cocky now does it?) The second came shortly after his 2nd or 3rd AAA start where he said something about letting hitters dictate his approach, and that he knew how to change things and attack differently the next time out. And he flat out did it just as he said! If I didn't know for sure before that, I knew then that this kid was special. I won't dare call him a future ACE. How can you dare to call anyone that? But if I had to pick one pitcher in the entire Twins system right now, perhaps any Twins pitcher in the last 5-10 years and label him with the bitter burden of expectation.....this would be the guy.

 

BUT...and here is the BIG BUT...(no rap song need apply)...do you promote him at this time? He is still only 21. He is, by reports, 3+ starts away from hitting his 120% increase in IP from last season. As I stated in another article, there is no reason to think the Twins 120% rule is safe and accurate, but there is also no reason to believe it isn't. Would YOU want to risk an arm and potential like this? Also, would Berrios making an unknown, perhaps dubious, 2-3 starts at the ML level as a rookie actually do anything benificial for the ML club and their pursuit to finish the season strong with wild card dreams over and above the pitchers already in place? Would his place on the 40 man roster...necessary for him to debut...risk losing another young player that could be kept through the next off season draft phase? (I KNOW there are guys who can easily be lost, but there are also several young players to consider protecting, and Berrios doesn't have to be protected yet)

 

Also, while I hate to say it, there is no need or guarantee, at this point, that Berrios HAS to be in the 2016 Twins rotation to begin the season. So....for not only reward but studliness and potential readiness...do you bring Berrios up? Or do you look at Nolasco, Milone, Duffey, and decide to let Berrios finish out the year, save a spot on the 40 man, and let's let it play out next spring?

 

Kepler:

 

A lot of things stick out to me in regard to Max. (And there has been a lot of hype, especially early). One is the pure athletic potential of a young man with world class athletic parents. The other, silly as it may sound, is a report from my father who watched Kepler a couple years ago at ST and commented how he just moved like a smooth athlete in everything he did. (Would also like to report how congenial and polite he seemed to be when speaking with my father on the side)

 

Who is Max Kepler as a ballplayer? I honestly don't know for certain. I dare say the Twins don't know with 100% certainty either. But I believe the lens is coming in to focus. For starters, we will ignore his amazing numbers from this current season. Instead, we will examine an athletic and potential-filled youngster still learning the game the previous 5 seasons. Despite an injury filled and not so great 2013, Kepler's career milb numbers BEFORE his 2015 breakout season show a quad slash of .269/.345/.413/.758.

 

I know there are posters here much more detailed in statistics that could probably tell you how Kepler ties his shoes on a Thursday. But the single #1 thing I see In his "career" milb numbers until this season is a +76% in OB% above BA. This one statistic really stands out to me. Whether you want to talk eyesight, instinct or discipline, that's a big number for a young ballplayer. This year's health, ability and potential are meeting. (Good coaching and some valuable AFL experience have undoubtedly assisted as well) If we are talking overall skills and ability, as I have stated before, next to Buxton, there may not be a more complete prospect in the Twins system than Kepler. (Which is why I list him as untouchable unless something special comes along in a trade scenario) There is every reason to believe that he is, or almost is, ML ready. And over the years, there is a set presidence from the Twins to promote top talent from the AA level.

 

There is a lot of consternation and debate as to why Kepler hasn't already been promoted to Rochester at this point. There are, I guess, a few reasons.

 

1: He was about to be promoted before a mild injury slowed him briefly recently.

2: Why mess with a good thing when he's doing so well and his ability and confidence should allow him ample opportunity come September, or at worst, next ST.

3: The lookouts are in their first season as a Twins affiliate. They've already lost Sano, Buxton, and Polanco for a time, so let's keep the team doing well and the fans interested.

 

Now, I can actually understand #'s 1 & 2...3 is understandable but kind of hard to take unless combined with 1&2.

 

Sooner or later, I believe sooner, Kepler is going to be a regular in the Twins lineup. Honestly, I'm not so sure he isn't the Twins #3 hitter of the near future. The big question is, when do you bring him up? Why would you hold him back? If not today, how about promoting him tomorrow, especially with Hunter barely playing and Hicks out? Does he, and his AA teammates, deserve a chance to finish out the season and the playoffs before he makes his appearance? Is that worthwhile? Is it important?

 

I'm not saying yes or no. Im asking. There are different aspects to look at for both of these two top prospects. There is validity to RIGHT NOW as well as tempering time and expectation.

 

You tell me.

[70charger]

TL;DR?

[Craig Arko]

TL;DR?

Executive summary: Berrios and Kepler don't suck.

[Ncgo4]

Now. TODAY! The Twins are fighting to make the playoffs, Robinson can barely hit Sano's weight (maybe) and Hunter is not hitting as well as Robinson. Aside from our excitement to see another rookie called up, we need this bat. It's a no-brainier plus the Kaiser (I hope that's not considered derogatory, I didn't mean it to be) is already on the 40 man roster.

 

Let's just get this done.

 

As to J B, leave him alone until next year. I sure hate to say that.

[Shane Wahl]

While I think Berrios would get bullpen time in MLB right now, and that would be valuable, I am going to say right now that they would actually *need* Berrios as a starter for the playoffs if they get there. Santana is ineligible and Trevor May is likely staying in the bullpen this year. That leaves Gibson, what is left of Hughes' arm, Pelfrey, Duffey, and Milone. Familiar Twins playoff territory, actually, but still frustrating. Berrios could be that kind of young starting pitching spark needed.

[dbminn]

Great article. Please don't call him "Kaiser". I don't want to use a politically correct card, but in this case, it's warranted. Kaiser Wilhelm was known as "the Kaiser" in the US. He was war mongering, anti-Semitic and incompetent. A big reason WWI happened. The Kaiser also had a lame left arm from birth (seriously). 

 

Shane makes a good argument why Berrios should be available for the MLB playoffs. Kepler can be a September call-up after the AA playoffs.

 

Also - what is the MLB rule regarding additions to the playoff roster if someone is placed on the DL?

 

[TRex]

 

 

Also - what is the MLB rule regarding additions to the playoff roster if someone is placed on the DL?

In addition, what is the rule for replacing someone lost due to PED usage? To me, the logical answer is that it would be the same as what happens for players on the DL, but I truly don't know.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the replacement has to be on the 40-man as of Sep. 1.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins make the Wild Card game, they will have to beat the Blue Jays or Yankees on the road to advance to the ALDS.

 

I find all of that so unlikely that I don't really care too much if Berrios is on the roster or not. He's surely approaching his innings limit for the season so it might be best to just shut him down for the season and let him prepare for 2016 and a trip to Minnesota in mid April.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Some inconsistencies in these arguments:

 

- Buxton didn't have to be added to the 40-man until 2016 either, and may only see a few weeks regular playing time as Hicks' injury replacement anyway

 

- Rochester is out of the playoff picture as much as Chattanooga is in it

 

- Berrios only has a few starts left, perhaps, but that's partially because they have resisted calling him up so far.

 

- Also, 3 starts would just about exactly equal pitching the rest of the MLB season in relief

 

- We will want Berrios to start April thru September next year. Innings aside, is shutting him down completely with a month to go in 2015 the best way to get him ready for that? Or are we setting ourselves up for another shutdown etc. in 2016?

[Mike Sixel]

I think Berrios should be up and in the pen. If you have a shot, take it. There is research on line showing the twenty percent thing isn't true.

 

Kepler, I would like up, but don't think it likely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We will want Berrios to start April thru September next year. Innings aside, is shutting him down completely with a month to go in 2015 the best way to get him ready for that? Or are we setting ourselves up for another shutdown etc. in 2016?

I don't think that's the case. The Twins haven't shut down Berrios and he's at 150 innings for the season. Let's say they let him pitch to 160 innings and shut him down.

 

The typical MLB starter will go somewhere around 190 innings in a season, give or take. +30 innings isn't a big leap for a guy coming off 160 innings the previous season.

[drjim]

I don't think that's the case. The Twins haven't shut down Berrios and he's at 150 innings for the season. Let's say they let him pitch to 160 innings and shut him down.

 

The typical MLB starter will go somewhere around 190 innings in a season, give or take. +30 innings isn't a big leap for a guy coming off 160 innings the previous season.

This strikes me as about the jump you would want. Other ways to control during the season too with skippinh starts, etc.

 

That said, I would almost guarantee, called up now or not, he starts in the minors to begin the season. Really hard for a young arm to start a career in the rotation on opening day and make it through the season.

 

I would have called him up a couple weeks ago, made the start May did and then moved him to the pen. Would have kept the innjngs right.

 

I'm skeptical they call up Kepler if Hicks is back by Sept 1.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This strikes me as about the jump you would want. Other ways to control during the season too with skippinh starts, etc.

That said, I would almost guarantee, called up now or not, he starts in the minors to begin the season. Really hard for a young arm to start a career in the rotation on opening day and make it through the season.

I would have called him up a couple weeks ago, made the start May did and then moved him to the pen. Would have kept the innjngs right.

I'm skeptical they call up Kepler if Hicks is back by Sept 1.

I also would have called Berrios up to make May's start a week or two ago.

 

But that didn't happen so now I'd probably just let Jose finish the season in Rochester. I don't see big gains to be found in calling him up today. The bullpen now looks relatively stable so putting Jose in the pen isn't a pressing matter, especially since he hasn't pitched an inning of relief in several years.

 

But if the Twins called him up, I certainly wouldn't complain about it.

 

Next season, I'd keep Jose down for at least three weeks simply for service time considerations. He'll be 22 years old; you want the seventh year of control over a guy like that.

[Halsey Hall]

I'd leave them both right where they are.  No harm done that way, and we don't need either of them.  There's not much time left this season so let them finish off and enter the off season with good vibes and satisfaction of a year well done.

 

And let's not nickname Max.  I'd bet he wouldn't care for it and would prefer just Max.  Pet name your pets, not people. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see any reason not to call up Kepler on 9/1. He's on the 40 man.

 

Even if he doesn't play, there's no reason not to put him on the roster. Let him get a feel for MLB. He's not going to be doing anything else anyway.

[kab21]

 

Great article. Please don't call him "Kaiser". I don't want to use a politically correct card, but in this case, it's warranted. Kaiser Wilhelm was known as "the Kaiser" in the US. He was war mongering, anti-Semitic and incompetent. A big reason WWI happened. The Kaiser also had a lame left arm from birth (seriously). 

 

Shane makes a good argument why Berrios should be available for the MLB playoffs. Kepler can be a September call-up after the AA playoffs.

 

Also - what is the MLB rule regarding additions to the playoff roster if someone is placed on the DL?

Should we also not use the nickname King Felix because there were kings that did horrible things?

 

I think it is a silly nickname but there is nothing politically incorrect with the word/name Kaiser.  It means emperor and was derived from Caesar and also turned into Czar among other usages in different languages.

 

I hope Kepler is up in September and Berrios is up as a RP'er.  Stupid service time issues.

[Mike Sixel]

Worrying about service time with a pitcher? Ugh. Worrying about service time when you are in a playoff chase? Ugh. Worrying about him relieving and not starting for a few weeks time? Ugh, lots of teams do it, it isn't some novel idea.

[stringer bell]

I don't see any reason not to call up Kepler on 9/1. He's on the 40 man.

 

Even if he doesn't play, there's no reason not to put him on the roster. Let him get a feel for MLB. He's not going to be doing anything else anyway.

September 1 or after the SL playoffs? To me, that is the only question. If the Twins have Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, and Hunter, I don't know that there would be many at-bats for Max. I would like to see him get some time with the big club. After his dominant season in AA, it should be his reward.

 

Keep Berrios in AAA. He should be up in mid-April of '16.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

September 1 or after the SL playoffs? To me, that is the only question. If the Twins have Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, and Hunter, I don't know that there would be many at-bats for Max. I would like to see him get some time with the big club. After his dominant season in AA, it should be his reward.

Derp derp derp. For some reason, I was thinking Kepler is in Rochester. Obviously, that's not the case.

 

Yeah, let him play in the Southern League playoffs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd leave them both right where they are.  No harm done that way, and we don't need either of them.  There's not much time left this season so let them finish off and enter the off season with good vibes and satisfaction of a year well done.

 

And let's not nickname Max.  I'd bet he wouldn't care for it and would prefer just Max.  Pet name your pets, not people. 

 

One of the more ironic posts of the internet....

[Halsey Hall]

POOF!

[kab21]

 

Worrying about service time with a pitcher? Ugh. Worrying about service time when you are in a playoff chase? Ugh. Worrying about him relieving and not starting for a few weeks time? Ugh, lots of teams do it, it isn't some novel idea.

I think he should just be called up but Berrios isn't like Gibson.  He is 21 and has #2 potential.  Still I call him up.

 

 

[Squirrel]

POOF!

I know it's your 'thing,' and some laugh, but you don't like Plouffe and really mean this nickname derisively. I think taking your own advice at this point, would be good. Name your pets, not people. Thank you.

[dbminn]

 

Should we also not use the nickname King Felix because there were kings that did horrible things?

 

I think it is a silly nickname but there is nothing politically incorrect with the word/name Kaiser.  It means emperor and was derived from Caesar and also turned into Czar among other usages in different languages.

 

I hope Kepler is up in September and Berrios is up as a RP'er.  Stupid service time issues.

 

Please reread my initial post. "The Kaiser" is what Kaiser Wilhelm was known by in the U.S. Of course I know that Kaiser means Caesar. And of course, "Fuhrer" means leader...

 

http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/NzUzWDUwMA==/z/-0cAAOxyA4ZRUgiK/$T2eC16VHJHYE9nzpeCjkBRUgiJsCG!~~60_35.JPG

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think that's the case. The Twins haven't shut down Berrios and he's at 150 innings for the season. Let's say they let him pitch to 160 innings and shut him down.

 

The typical MLB starter will go somewhere around 190 innings in a season, give or take. +30 innings isn't a big leap for a guy coming off 160 innings the previous season.

That's fine, in terms of innings.  But you'd also be shutting him down after 5 months this year, and then asking him to go 6 months next year (even if he starts 2016 in the minors).  I suspect we might hear about the longer season as an excuse and/or they might take additional precautions next season, trying to ease him into the longer season, that they could avoid by stretching his ~160 IP this year over 6 months.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's fine, in terms of innings.  But you'd also be shutting him down after 5 months this year, and then asking him to go 6 months next year (even if he starts 2016 in the minors).  I suspect we might hear about the longer season as an excuse and/or they might take additional precautions next season, trying to ease him into the longer season, that they could avoid by stretching his ~160 IP this year over 6 months.

I won't rule out the Twins using that as an excuse in 2016, just stating that they shouldn't (unless Berrios is truly wearing down and underperforming).

[jimmer]

seems the only player in the game that should have the nickname Kaiser is Steven Souza.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is Berrios' third full pro season.  He's healthy and does not appear to be fatiguing in the least.  I get gradual innings control, I don't understand the hurry to shut him down completely.

 

Luis Severino has been ranked similarly to Berrios, is virtually the same age, had been pitching at the same levels the past two seasons, and had notably fewer innings than Berrios prior to 2015.  And the Yankees certainly aren't looking to shut him down as a precautionary measure during a MLB pennant race.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Next season, I'd keep Jose down for at least three weeks simply for service time considerations. He'll be 22 years old; you want the seventh year of control over a guy like that.

Service time considerations for pitchers are extremely speculative.  Should the Twins have worried about service time with Liriano over 2005-2006?  He got injured which suppressed his value anyway, and slow rehab meant they were able to option him and recover a good amount of service time.

 

Also, barring injury the Twins are unlikely to change their MLB rotation 3 weeks into 2016.  If Berrios starts in the minors for 2016, he will probably be down for 2 months.  Which means you could still have that potential 7th year of control even if pitches out of the MLB pen this September.