Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Except that's not the issue. Gibson and May aren't interchangeable. Milone/Pelfrey and May are interchangeable.

For the sake of our projected playoff series winning percentage, they are more or less interchangeable.  Gibson does not stand out from that group to the degree you claim.

[kab21]

 

This is a rather large tough part that sort of undermines the "win now" aspect of doing this trade....no?

The benefit of Tulo (this year and the following years) is much greater than Gibson.  you might consider that undermining but they still improve.  It would be better if Kohl Stewart (or someone else with a high profile) was doing awesome in A ball and could be the centerpiece but you have to give up something to get something.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For the sake of our projected playoff series winning percentage, they are more or less interchangeable.  Gibson does not stand out from that group to the degree you claim.

I mean "interchangeable" as in "one of those players should be removed for the other".

 

A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable.

 

Having Pelfrey or Milone in a playoff rotation is questionable. Having both of them in a playoff rotation is begging for a quick exit.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The benefit of Tulo (this year and the following years) is much greater than Gibson.  you might consider that undermining but they still improve.  It would be better if Kohl Stewart (or someone else with a high profile) was doing awesome in A ball and could be the centerpiece but you have to give up something to get something.

 

I don't disagree it's probably a net gain (if Tulo stays on the field, I'm going to keep emphasizing this because it is a much bigger factor than anything else IMO), but if I'm going to give something to help me now, I'd rather focus on giving things that aren't helping me right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This rumor doesn't appear to be on Rockies fans' radar at all.

It doesn't appear anywhere except Twins Daily.  Jeremy, could doubts about your source be holding this back from, say, MLBTR?

 

Looking back at Jeremy's article, the Rockies' "top target" is Gibson and "they've also asked for" Sano. I interpret that as meaning they would want both for Tulo.  That's a high price, but it's mostly on the Sano side, as he still has superstar upside (and still potentially at 3B).

 

I think it was mentioned upthread, but if the Twins offered Gibson + stuff for Tulo, with no Sano/Berrios/Buxton, it might be difficult for the Colorado GM to keep his composure long enough to politely end the conversation and hang up the phone.

 

The idea that the TWINS would be the ones to walk away from such a deal is crazy.

 

EDITED: to add "+ stuff"

Edited July 22, 2015 by spycake

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't disagree it's probably a net gain (if Tulo stays on the field, I'm going to keep emphasizing this because it is a much bigger factor than anything else IMO), but if I'm going to give something to help me now, I'd rather focus on giving things that aren't helping me right now.

Yep. I don't see the point of acquiring a player who costs a lot and has reached his peak at the expense of a cheap player who appears to be reaching his peak.

 

I'm not against acquiring Tulo but I have my doubts... But not if it costs the Twins a valuable player who is contributing to the 2015 squad.

 

I don't see how people envision a Twins team that wins this October without Gibson starting the first or second game of the series.

[Mike Sixel]

Brock. ...where does the mythical ace come from next year? Or the year after?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It doesn't appear anywhere except Twins Daily.  Jeremy, could doubts about your source be holding this back from, say, MLBTR?

 

Looking back at Jeremy's article, the Rockies' "top target" is Gibson and "they've also asked for" Sano. I interpret that as meaning they would want both for Tulo.  That's a high price, but it's mostly on the Sano side, as he still has superstar upside (and still potentially at 3B).

 

I think it was mentioned upthread, but if the Twins offered Gibson for Tulo, with no Sano/Berrios/Buxton, it might be difficult for the Colorado GM to keep his composure long enough to politely end the conversation and hang up the phone.

 

The idea that the TWINS would be the ones to walk away from such a deal is crazy.

I don't know about anyone else in this thread but I was working under the assumption that Gibson straight up for Tulo wasn't even a consideration.

 

My assumption was Gibson + stuff for Tulo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock. ...where does the mythical ace come from next year? Or the year after?

Where did I say anything about an ace?

 

One thing I do know is that you're not going to find a "mythical ace" or anything resembling such a thing by trading your best starting pitcher.

 

And how do the Twins get that "mythical ace" when they've committed $20m to Tulo and lost their best starter? Your argument is illogical.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable.

I think "vastly" is the problematic word here.  In baseball, "vastly superior" is the difference between Kershaw and Correia for one game.

 

The difference between Gibson and May/Pelfrey/Milone for 25% of a playoff rotation cannot be described as "vast."

[jimmer]

 

I mean "interchangeable" as in "one of those players should be removed for the other".

 

A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable.

 

Having Pelfrey or Milone in a playoff rotation is questionable. Having both of them in a playoff rotation is begging for a quick exit.

except May isn't even in the rotation  now so why would it be Gibson, Hughes, May?

[Mike Sixel]

Don't you keep saying they can't win in the playoffs with this staff?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

except May isn't even in the rotation  now so why would it be Gibson, Hughes, May?

I'd be shocked if Trevor May isn't in the rotation by the end of August.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'd be extremely happy if both Buxton and Sano were better than Tulo in 2017.

I just wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't bet on either being better, much less both.

BTW, if we aren't winning a championship in 2017 with Tulo as the best player, how the heck are we winning one if he's not even on the team?

By taking the20M we would have paid him an investing it plus a little more to get a top of the rotation FA.  So, we would have this FA pitcher plus all of the guys we would give up to get Tulo.

 

Short term, Tulo would no doubt improve the team but even with him this team is not ready to contend for real.  I would bet the cumulative war of the players we give up would be considerable higher than Tulo alone in 2018-2021.  So its short term thinking.  Fans want instant gratification but the odds are this is a bad trade for the final half of the assumed contract.  Of course, that right when the Twins core has matured and ready to win (like KC).  It is also the point in time where Mauer, Santana, and Nolasco will be off the books leaving room to lock down Sano and Buxton and probably add a premier FA to fill whatever happens to be our greatest need at that time if we don't screw up the management of payroll.  

[Mike Sixel]

Tulo as your SS for the playoff series is vastly superior to Santana......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Don't you keep saying they can't win in the playoffs with this staff?

I have my doubts about this team as a whole.

 

But I know that making the staff considerably worse isn't going to improve their chances in October.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know about anyone else in this thread but I was working under the assumption that Gibson straight up for Tulo wasn't even a consideration.

 

My assumption was Gibson + stuff for Tulo.

I didn't mean straight-up, sorry if that wasn't clear.

 

But unless Sano, Berrios, or Buxton is part of that extra "stuff", I still think the end result is the same.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Tulo as your SS for the playoff series is vastly superior to Santana......

I think everyone here can agree on one thing:

 

Danny Santana should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I didn't mean straight-up, sorry if that wasn't clear.

 

But unless Sano, Berrios, or Buxton is part of that extra "stuff", I still think the end result is the same.

I was thinking more like Gibson + Kepler but YMMV.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think everyone here can agree on one thing:

 

Danny Santana should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.

 

I like the Troi idea, but only if I get cable again and can actually watch.....

[Mike Sixel]

MLR, it's not as easy as adding up all the WAR of the guys they trade. Only 25 guys are on the roster at a time........it's not likely that all 3-5 players they gave up would even play on this roster.

 

It would be cool if the Twins took the $20MM they aren't spending on Tulo and bought an elite SP......

 

Here is the list of all the times they've done that in their history:

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

By taking the20M we would have paid him an investing it plus a little more to get a top of the rotation FA.  So, we would have this FA pitcher plus all of the guys we would give up to get Tulo.

Lester got $155 million, Scherzer $190 million.  Do you really see the Twins bidding at that level for Price, Cueto, Zimmermann, or Greinke?

 

By all means, if they've targeted one of those guys and are prepared to bid that much, that's cool too.  But somehow I doubt it (almost as much as I doubt they'd actually swing a trade for Tulo ).

[DaveW]

 

I think "vastly" is the problematic word here.  In baseball, "vastly superior" is the difference between Kershaw and Correia for one game.

 

The difference between Gibson and May/Pelfrey/Milone for 25% of a playoff rotation cannot be described as "vast."

[DaveW]

 

 

 

Here is the list of all the times they've done that in their history:

:go: :whacky028:

[DaveW]

 

 

I think everyone reasonable that knows baseball can agree on one thing:

 

Escobar should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was thinking more like Gibson + Kepler but YMMV.

You think they'd turn down Gibson, but take Gibson + Kepler?  Again, I like Kepler, but it seems you're making these guys out to be WAY more of difference-makers than they actually are (Gibson alone in our playoff rotation, and Kepler alone in any trade proposal).

[Brock Beauchamp]

You think they'd turn down Gibson, but take Gibson + Kepler?  Again, I like Kepler, but it seems you're making these guys out to be WAY more of difference-makers than they actually are (Gibson alone in our playoff rotation, and Kepler alone in any trade proposal).

Kepler isn't great but he looks like he's going to profile as a solid MLB regular. That has value. He's 22 years old and tearing up AA.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd be shocked if Trevor May isn't in the rotation by the end of August.

 

didn't you say that about the ASB or so also?

 

so, 6 more weeks of their 2nd best pitcher sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing? But, ya, they are w/o a flaw in leadership/FO/manager....

[Vanimal46]

MLR, it's not as easy as adding up all the WAR of the guys they trade. Only 25 guys are on the roster at a time........it's not likely that all 3-5 players they gave up would even play on this roster.

 

It would be cool if the Twins took the $20MM they aren't spending on Tulo and bought an elite SP......

 

Here is the list of all the times they've done that in their history:

If I could give this 1,000,000 likes I would. The Twins have never, ever, ever in their history went after an Ace SP in FA. Give the FO some credit, even they knew they were going after 2nd-tier pitchers the last 2 offseasons for Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana. They didn't even come close to the true aces available those years (Tanaka in 13, Scherzer and Shields last year)

 

Brock + others have brought up that if Gibson was traded, our staff isn't good enough for the playoffs. Worthy argument. However, how can you argue that the lineup would be good enough anyway for the playoffs?

 

We're not trading for Tulo so he can be Ozzie Smith in the field. Hes brought on to be a #3 hitter in our lineup, so we can move either Hunter or Mauer further down the chain. If a guy in a "decline phase" still manages to have a 41 game on-base streak, I will take that all day long.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kepler isn't great but he looks like he's going to profile as a solid MLB regular. That has value. He's 22 years old and tearing up AA.

Sure he has value, but he alone isn't going to sink or swim a Tulowitzki trade.  Just like Gibson is a good pitcher, but isn't alone going to sink or swim out postseason chances.