Extend Kyle Gibson

[DaveW]

He isn't a free agent until 2020, but is it worth seeing if the Twins can give him a contract that buys out his arb years as well as a free agent year or two? Or is it to early and the Twins should wait another year or two?

[tobi0040]

 

He isn't a free agent until 2020, but is it worth seeing if the Twins can give him a contract that buys out his arb years as well as a free agent year or two? Or is it to early and the Twins should wait another year or two?

 

He is almost 28 and has aleady had TJ.  He is controlled thru 32.  The milk is free.  Why buy the cow?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He is almost 28 and has aleady had TJ.  He is controlled thru 32.  The milk is free.  Why buy the cow?

I tend to agree with this take.

 

If he's still dominant at age 29, then maybe try to buy out two free agent years. Yeah, it'll cost you more but given the finicky nature of pitchers - particularly groundball pitchers - it's a risk I'm more than willing to take.

[howieramone2]

 

He isn't a free agent until 2020, but is it worth seeing if the Twins can give him a contract that buys out his arb years as well as a free agent year or two? Or is it to early and the Twins should wait another year or two?

I would go Sano first.

[DaveW]

 

I would go Sano first.

As would I.

[nicksaviking]

Keeping him to the age of 32 seems about right.  I don't want pitchers under conract older than that as it is.  It's harsh, it's not fair to the player, but it's how the game seems to work these days. Another sucker of a team can give him a nice big contract for his decline years if he produces prior to free agency.

[tobi0040]

 

Keeping him to the age of 32 seems about right.  I don't want pitchers under conract older than that as it is.  It's harsh, it's not fair to the player, but it's how the game seems to work these days. Another sucker of a team can give him a nice big contract for his decline years if he produces prior to free agency.

 

Yup.  I heard Peter Gammons say that some scouts and doctors believe TJ gives a pitcher about seven years.  He had it in 2012, so the timing works out to about his control.

[DuluthFan]

Nick Blackburn.

Joe Mays.

 

Both were extended while they were still under team control.

 

Other than Johan Santana, have the Twins developed any other top line pitchers that left via free agency that you wish they could have kept? Lohse and Garza are the only big name pitchers that come to mind and neither left via free agency.

 

[halfchest]

 

Nick Blackburn.

Joe Mays.

 

Both were extended while they were still under team control.

 

Other than Johan Santana, have the Twins developed any other top line pitchers that left via free agency that you wish they could have kept? Lohse and Garza are the only big name pitchers that come to mind and neither left via free agency.

 

 

and now that you point it out, Santana was traded away as well. 

 

I think with his age and control left the Twins can afford to wait at least another year knowing he can be kept at a price if needed. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I would go Sano first.

After only 11 MLB games?????  That goes beyond wishful thinking

[Seth Stohs]

I'd have no problem with giving him 2-3 years, buying a little cost-certainty and giving him some guarantee, but I wouldn't extend him beyond free agency...

 

Of course, if he comes to the Twins and says, I'd like to stay here, and I'll take 6 years and $12 million, I'd say Sure. 

 

He won't do that. 

[HitInAPinch]

I know Gibson is on a hot streak, but if I'm management I gotta see more than a hot streak.  Show me a seasonal ERA below 4 and I'd probably on board with the extension.  Also, the .500 record doesn't do much for me.  I think we can expect a lot more from Gibson.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd have no problem with giving him 2-3 years, buying a little cost-certainty and giving him some guarantee, but I wouldn't extend him beyond free agency...

 

Of course, if he comes to the Twins and says, I'd like to stay here, and I'll take 6 years and $12 million, I'd say Sure. 

 

He won't do that. 

What about six years, $30-35m? That'd be really tough to turn down if I was the GM.

 

I seriously doubt Gibson would even consider doing that, but it's a fun thought.

[tobi0040]

Here are the two examples of how an extension for Gibson could be a very poor move.  Especially considering we have no complelling reason to give it given the control and age at which he hits FA, as well as Nolasco, Hughes, and Ervin under contract with another 3-4 guys that could be in the mix.

 

Before the 2010 season Blackburn was extended.  He had pitched 400 innings that that point.  Two years of 200 IP with an ERA right at 4.00.   We prepaid all his arb years and had an $8M option in year 1 of free agency.  I am guessing declining the option had some sort of buyout.

 

He proceeded to then be on scholarship the next three years, inexplicably getting 400 IP with an ERA of 5.42, 4.49, and 7.39.

 

Baker received a similar deal before 2009.  His was more derailed by injury.  Prepaid 3 arb years with a 9M option on his first FA year.

 

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins have him through his prime. Year-to-year is the way to go... there could be some kind of long-term deal that makes sense, but it wouldn't be easy. Probably would need team options for his first and second FA years to make up for the risk assumed by the club.

[Seth Stohs]

If he is this pitcher, here's about what he'd make in coming years.

 

2016: $575,000

2017: $4 million

2018: $7 million

2019: $12 million

2020: Free agent

 

So, if they were to go year to year, you're looking at something like $23.6 million over 4 years. 

 

If he were to sign the same deal Dozier did, 4 years, $20 million, it might be a small savings, IF he remains the same pitcher he is now. OF course, we've seen examples of both sides of that (injury, poor performance, or like Dozier, stepping up.

 

I'd be good with offering him 3 years and $8-10 million. Seems fair on both sides, risk for both sides, etc. 

[jimbo92107]

I would work out an extension for Trevor May first. He's building himself into a Dozier-level stud before our very eyes.

[jorgenswest]

I know it goes against the Twin philosophy of paying pitchers lots of money for little performance, but why not let him perform well and earn his due in arbitration? The Twins can afford the arbitration reward.

[tobi0040]

 

I know it goes against the Twin philosophy of paying pitchers lots of money for little performance, but why not let him perform well and earn his due in arbitration? The Twins can afford the arbitration reward.

 

Yes we can.  I have also heard it is the years, not dollars that prevents us from participating.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If he is this pitcher, here's about what he'd make in coming years.

 

2016: $575,000

2017: $4 million

2018: $7 million

2019: $12 million

2020: Free agent

 

So, if they were to go year to year, you're looking at something like $23.6 million over 4 years. 

 

If he were to sign the same deal Dozier did, 4 years, $20 million, it might be a small savings, IF he remains the same pitcher he is now. OF course, we've seen examples of both sides of that (injury, poor performance, or like Dozier, stepping up.

 

I'd be good with offering him 3 years and $8-10 million. Seems fair on both sides, risk for both sides, etc. 

 

You probably need more inflation in there, but directionally it is about right.

 

And, no, I would not extend him right now. In a year, if he's still doing this? Yes, I'd consider that.

[DaveW]

6 years, 40 million is what I would offer, not sure it would be enough though.

[spanman2]

 

If he is this pitcher, here's about what he'd make in coming years.

 

2016: $575,000

2017: $4 million

2018: $7 million

2019: $12 million

2020: Free agent

 

So, if they were to go year to year, you're looking at something like $23.6 million over 4 years. 

 

If he were to sign the same deal Dozier did, 4 years, $20 million, it might be a small savings, IF he remains the same pitcher he is now. OF course, we've seen examples of both sides of that (injury, poor performance, or like Dozier, stepping up.

 

I'd be good with offering him 3 years and $8-10 million. Seems fair on both sides, risk for both sides, etc. 

I would wait until after next year.  This is the first year he has been consistent/predictable.  Last year seemed to be good/bad/good bad...he certainly is showing signs but I would like to see another year of it.

[DocBauer]

He is almost 28 and has aleady had TJ.  He is controlled thru 32.  The milk is free.  Why buy the cow?

I will agree with a small exception. Team controll is one thing. Dealing with arbitration is another. Wrapping him up with a nice solid contract that is friendly to both parties, making everyone happy through age 32-33-34 might be prudent. Or am I missing something on the arbitration end?

[tobi0040]

I will agree with a small exception. Team controll is one thing. Dealing with arbitration is another. Wrapping him up with a nice solid contract that is friendly to both parties, making everyone happy through age 32-33-34 might be prudent. Or am I missing something on the arbitration end?

we already have his peak years. I am not interested in prepaying him for 4 plus years, since he is not going to be a 20m pitcher and we would be talking about his 33 and 34 seasons

 

When you pay for something before you need to bad things can happen. Especially for pitchers. Look at Blackburn, baker, mays, had we extended liriano after a few of his good years.

[tobi0040]

 

we already have his peak years. I am not interested in prepaying him for 4 plus years, since he is not going to be a 20m pitcher and we would be talking about his 33 and 34 seasons

When you pay for something before you need to bad things can happen. Especially for pitchers. Look at Blackburn, baker, mays, had we extended liriano after a few of his good years.

 

I completely agree Tobi.  You are a genius.

 

OK, I am replying to myself because it won't let me edit for some reason.  Just wanted to add Johan to this list.  His last good season was age 31. Hurt all of 32. 4.85 ERA at age 33.  Can't find a job at 34 and 35.

[DaveW]

After reading through these, I agree the Twins should maybe wait a year or two before exploring this, however if they could do 6 years 40 million (buy out his first two years of FA) I would probably do it now.

 

However, I don't think the comparisons to Blackburn, May and Liriano are fair. Completely different pitchers and scenarios. Gibson has much more talent and upside then Blackburn and May, and Liriano is just a whole nother frustrating category on his own.

[kab21]

Yes, I am on board with the numbers being thrown around (6/40) but I don't think that even gets the agent to pick up the phone.  That could play out like the James Shield contract with Tampa and he was an outstanding value.

 

But overall I am lukewarm on making a big effort to sign Gibson.  He has already had TJ and 2nd TJ's are becoming common.  He has also been inconsistent and until the last month and a half he has been a 5.5 K/9 pitcher.  Before that I would have been dead set against any kind of extension but now I am at least intrigued by what he can become.  He has some statistical comparisons to Carlos Carrasco who went from a 6 K/9 guy to a 9 K/9 so anything is possible.

[nicksaviking]

 

I would work out an extension for Trevor May first. He's building himself into a Dozier-level stud before our very eyes.

 

Me too, sinkerball pitchers tend to flame out.  Here is an article with a list of the best sinkerball pitchers of 2011. (I am truley sorry that it is a Bleacherreport, it is however not a slideshow.)

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/688836-mlb-power-rankings-the-7-best-sinkerballers-in-the-game-today

 

For those not wanting to soil their computers with a crappy Bleacherreport, the list goes:

 

Tim Hudson

Derek Lowe

Brandon League

Justin Masterson

Carlos Zambrano

Jason Marquis

Jon Garland

 

Honerable mentions were Mike Pelfrey, Jake Westbrook, Luke Hochever and Joel Pineiro with nods given to Brandon Webb, Aaron Cook and Chen Ming-Wang who were injured.

 

So basically Tim Hudson and Derek (gag) Lowe, who were worth offering more than a spring training invite past their age 32 seasons. Of course I'm sure some may believe Mike Pelfrey will still be valuable, I wouldn't want him under contract for the +12M that would be needed for an extension though.

 

I think most pitchers start tanking around 30, but sinkerballers are the worst.  Congrats to Tim Hudson for his long and successful career, to the others, sorry, but something about that pitch isn't sustainable.  The Twins should not be focused on this pitch, Gibson and Kohl Stewart should be more focused on using their velocity to get batters out, they'd be better for it in the long run.

[tobi0040]

 

After reading through these, I agree the Twins should maybe wait a year or two before exploring this, however if they could do 6 years 40 million (buy out his first two years of FA) I would probably do it now.

 

However, I don't think the comparisons to Blackburn, May and Liriano are fair. Completely different pitchers and scenarios. Gibson has much more talent and upside then Blackburn and May, and Liriano is just a whole nother frustrating category on his own.

 

How soon we forget about Mays.

 

Year 1 – ERA + 116
Year 2 – ERA + 93
Year 3 – ERA+ 143.  All star.  233 IP.  4 complete games.

 

Then we extended him.

 

That Johan guy was pretty good at age 28 too.  Not so much at 32.

 

It isn't even the money that concerns me. It is after a guy is given money he has his teeth sunk into a rotation spot indefinitely. See Nolasco, Pelfrey, Mays, Blackburn, etc.

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Right handed groundball pitchers decline quickly when they drop in velocity as they age. Look at Masterson's performance as his velocity drops. Look at Halliday. The Twins don't know when Gibson will lose a few miles off his fastball, but if they are betting it will a few years beyond the age of 32 they will likely lose that bet.