MLBTR on the Availability of Catchers

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

And I disagree because there's a good chance the Giants say "call me back in six weeks" and hang up the phone.

 

By Terry Ryan's own admission, not even he ever says that, and he takes a particularly long-term view (probably to his credit) for a GM. He always says that he always listens to offers. Nobody without a no-trade clause is so invaluable that he won't listen to offers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

By Terry Ryan's own admission, not even he ever says that, and he takes a particularly long-term view (probably to his credit) for a GM. He always says that he always listens to offers. Nobody without a no-trade clause is so invaluable that he won't listen to offers.

Listening to offers and hoping for an overpay is quite different than trying to acquire a player at a diminished price.

 

If the Giants were interested in Plouffe for Susac in May and considered it fair value, they're almost certainly interested in Plouffe for Susac in July because it's still fair value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

His value to the Giants is higher. Ryan wouldn't change his valuation much, if at all. All that happens is the pendulum swings to the other side of the negotiating table.

 

Also, this hypothetical ignores that this is a big reason why teams don't trade players in May. Sample sizes are small, teams are still figuring out their rosters, etc.

As I noted above, I doubt Susac's value is meaningfully higher to the Giants now than on June 1st or whatever.  He's more or less doing what they expected him to do, and getting the opportunities they expected him to get at some point.  When a prospect is that close, his value is more or less the same as it is just a little further down the line in his development.

 

But agreed on your other points.  Actually the big variable isn't the Giants value of Susac, which has almost certainly been consistently high, but the Giants need(s) at other positions.  McGehee was terrible at 3B early for them, but they weren't desperate -- it was early, they were doing well at other positions, they still had Duffy to try at 3B, if not others, and in fact Duffy has filled the spot quite well for them.  I don't know if any team has really been desperate enough just 2 months into the season to move the needle on trade market approaches.

[HitInAPinch]

Right now?  Pierzynski is the obvious choice. Or maybe Kottaras?  What the Twins really need is some for for the future, long term and short.  I think that's most important as Suzuki looks like he's already gassed. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

As I noted above, I doubt Susac's value is meaningfully higher to the Giants now than on June 1st or whatever. He's more or less doing what they expected him to do, and getting the opportunities they expected him to get at some point. When a prospect is that close, his value is more or less the same as it is just a little further down the line in his development.

I'm on a phone so I'm not typing posts as thorough as I'd like.

 

The Giants probably haven't changed their internal valuation of Susac based on a month of play... But they'd almost certainly try to leverage that play to their advantage and ask for more. Ultimately, it wouldn't work against a conservative (and smart) GM like Ryan but they'd probably give it a shot because that's just how negotiations work.

 

But if they thought Plouffe for Susac was fair in May, they probably think it's fair today. The end outcome would probably be the same, they'd just start negotiating at a different point because they want to leverage all positive assets as much as possible.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Expected level of performance is affected by actual performance, because actual performance is one of the best sources of predicting expected performance. Obviously the Brewers would not have traded Lucroy as if he were a 55+ OPS player, again because small sample sizes make you discount the actual performance. But, "all else being equal" it should have decreased his value for everyone.

It's a two-way street, though.  Lucroy's performance had been poor, but other teams were still looking at Lucroy because of his very real 126 OPS+ potential.  The Brewers aren't going to meaningfully lower their asking price, and suddenly sell him as closer to a ~100 OPS+ player, after just a month of 55 OPS+.  As far as the trade market is concerned, Lucroy is basically the same asset before and after the short time period in question.

 

(That's another factor -- the Brewers have 2.5 years of cheap control for Lucroy, the Giants had virtually 6+ years for Susac earlier this year. There is no pressure to make a deal on either of them, so 1-2 months of almost any performance, positive or negative, isn't going to move their trade value needle.)

[Blackjack]

 

 Fryer should play more often than Herrmann did, as I imagine Suzuki can only be more run down in the second half without getting more days off.

I'll second that motion!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Giants probably haven't changed their internal valuation of Susac based on a month of play... But they'd almost certainly try to leverage that play to their advantage and ask for more. Ultimately, it wouldn't work against a conservative (and smart) GM like Ryan but they'd probably give it a shot because that's just how negotiations work.

That makes some sense, thanks.  Although I think that leverage factor ties into sensing the Twins desperation (if they inquire about the player in both May and July) rather than trying to squeeze more because Susac has established himself recently.

 

I think if you called the Giants about Susac for the first time today, their asking price might be identical to an alternate universe where you called them in May instead.  (Either way, the price is sufficiently high to effectively prevent a deal, although that same price could be perceived as higher in May than in July.)

[jorgenswest]

The Giants will trade prospects. The Giants may use Susac to get a piece they feel they need. That wasn't going to happen in May. They are going to go through internal options first. McGehee didn't work out. Duffy looks to be working out. If something happens to Duffy between now and July 31, the Giants valuation of Susac will not have changed but their motivation to make the move will have changed.

 

Meanwhile the Twins are winning with Suzuki or in spite of Suzuki. Which is it? Somehow Suzuki keeps putting up unimpressive offensive and defensive numbers on winning teams.

[Mike Sixel]

1. Agreed, Fryer should play 2x a week, at least.

 

2. I still don't like any options out there a ton........IF they go get a third catcher, he has to be able to PH in the post season, so it can't be another mediocre hitter.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think if you called the Giants about Susac for the first time today, their asking price might be identical to an alternate universe where you called them in May instead.  (Either way, the price is sufficiently high to effectively prevent a deal, although that same price could be perceived as higher in May than in July.)

This touches on another interesting point about perceived value and length of control that plays into the Giants' favor with very little risk involved on their part.

 

Trades are not run by computers. They're signed off by humans whose perception is often warped by increasingly large numbers. For example, Glen Perkins in 2013 was a great asset for the Twins. Many people called for him to be traded but it would have been a foolish move by the Twins because (IIRC) they still had 2.5 seasons of control over Perkins.

 

2.5 seasons is a long time. You know what else is long? 1.5 seasons. While there's a full season discrepancy there, it seems that in trading players, that extra season doesn't properly weigh into the negotiating price. Perkins should have been, for all intents and purposes, roughly 40% more valuable with that extra season of control but in actual trades we see around baseball, he's only marginally more valuable.

 

So you don't trade that guy because it's a bad value for the team losing Perkins and the acquiring team is committing highway robbery. Sure, there's a marginal risk of injury in there but given the pay of a cost-controlled player, that risk is far outweighed by a full season of control.

 

If the Giants are confident in Susac and his ability, they could hold on to him for a full two seasons, pay $1m in the process, and get as much, if not more, for him in 2017 or 2018.

 

It's one of the more aggravating things I've noticed about baseball trade negotiations over the years and seems to be a real market inefficiency that is rarely exploited.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Giants will trade prospects. The Giants may use Susac to get a piece they feel they need. That wasn't going to happen in May. They are going to go through internal options first. McGehee didn't work out. Duffy looks to be working out. If something happens to Duffy between now and July 31, the Giants valuation of Susac will not have changed but their motivation to make the move will have changed.

Meanwhile the Twins are winning with Suzuki or in spite of Suzuki. Which is it? Somehow Suzuki keeps putting up unimpressive offensive and defensive numbers on winning teams.

 

does that make him a good player? does it prove he is a "winner"? No, and no. Great teams often have a bad player on their roster.

 

Was Delmon Young the reason the Twins and Orioles kept winning? Really?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think the last word I would ever use to describe Terry Ryan or the Twins Front Office in general is "Desperate." No matter how badly they need an upgrade at a particular position I would be shocked if they did anything without a long term plan behind it.

Now, saying that, it's fair to point to some of those prior long term plans and say they didn't work out (Hicks in CF, for example).

I don't see Terry Ryan blurting out something like "OK fine you can have Berrios and Kepler, too!"

 

It's more likely that nothing gets done to add a catcher at the deadline, than Ryan doing something rash or short-sighted.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Meanwhile the Twins are winning with Suzuki or in spite of Suzuki. Which is it? Somehow Suzuki keeps putting up unimpressive offensive and defensive numbers on winning teams.

Suzuki's wasn't on a winning team last year.  Oakland was never above .500 with him as the starter.  The Nationals were hovering at or below .500 when they replaced Suzuki as starter in 2013 too.

[DJL44]

I actually like Brayan Pena as an option. He hits RHP pretty well (.310/.373/.359/.731 in 2015), isn't considered a poor defender and is dirt cheap for salary on an expiring contract. That's a fine option to pair with Suzuki.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For example, Glen Perkins in 2013 was a great asset for the Twins. Many people called for him to be traded but it would have been a foolish move by the Twins because (IIRC) they still had 2.5 seasons of control over Perkins.

 

2.5 seasons is a long time. You know what else is long? 1.5 seasons. While there's a full season discrepancy there, it seems that in trading players, that extra season doesn't properly weigh into the negotiating price. Perkins should have been, for all intents and purposes, roughly 40% more valuable with that extra season of control but in actual trades we see around baseball, he's only marginally more valuable.

Great post, and this was also one of the reasons to question the Span trade in real-time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I actually like Brayan Pena as an option. He hits RHP pretty well (.310/.373/.359/.731 in 2015), isn't considered a poor defender and is dirt cheap for salary on an expiring contract. That's a fine option to pair with Suzuki.

And lo and behold, Brayan Pena signed for 2/2.28 the same offseason we originally signed Suzuki...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Given the game-calling and rapport with pitchers/coaches required of the position, I wonder if the Twins are reticent about adding a catcher from outside the organization mid-season?  Outside of #1 prospect Mauer, the Twins have been loathe to trust young catchers too quickly, sometimes not even in backup roles, which could speak to the importance they hold for the position.

 

Calling up Fryer a month before the deadline seems to suggest that -- it felt like a bit of a lateral, "let's try to shake this up from within" move.  And they may have a pretty low threshold of improvement they want to see at the position (i.e. better than Herrmann).

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

Given the game-calling and rapport with pitchers/coaches required of the position, I wonder if the Twins are reticent about adding a catcher from outside the organization mid-season?  Outside of #1 prospect Mauer, the Twins have been loathe to trust young catchers too quickly, sometimes not even in backup roles, which could speak to the importance they hold for the position.

 

Calling up Fryer a month before the deadline seems to suggest that -- it felt like a bit of a lateral, "let's try to shake this up from within" move.  And they may have a pretty low threshold of improvement they want to see at the position (i.e. better than Herrmann).

I think there's something to that - I don't know if it is just the Twins that feel that way about adding catchers... There was a bit of movement earlier in the season with Salty going to the D-Backs, and Wellington Castillo going to the Mariners, but I can't think of a lot of starting catchers moving midseason...Mike Piazza, maybe?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given the game-calling and rapport with pitchers/coaches required of the position, I wonder if the Twins are reticent about adding a catcher from outside the organization mid-season? Outside of #1 prospect Mauer, the Twins have been loathe to trust young catchers too quickly, sometimes not even in backup roles, which could speak to the importance they hold for the position.

 

Calling up Fryer a month before the deadline seems to suggest that -- it felt like a bit of a lateral, "let's try to shake this up from within" move. And they may have a pretty low threshold of improvement they want to see at the position (i.e. better than Herrmann).

I hadn't considered that position. It's a good point and may be a big reason why the Twins don't go outside the organization. The Twins - for both good and bad - are very much an "organizational team". They may not trust a new catcher to buy into their system mid season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think there's something to that - I don't know if it is just the Twins that feel that way about adding catchers... There was a bit of movement earlier in the season with Salty going to the D-Backs, and Wellington Castillo going to the Mariners, but I can't think of a lot of starting catchers moving midseason...Mike Piazza, maybe?

Agreed, it's probably not unique to the Twins.  Seems like new starting catchers are only sought in case of injury, and even then they don't come by major midseason trade but are rather cheaper, much less risky additions.

 

Could see a backup / reinforcement move, but I wouldn't be surprised if an above-Herrmann level performance by Fryer over the next few weeks is enough to satisfy the Twins brass.

[jorgenswest]

does that make him a good player? does it prove he is a "winner"? No, and no. Great teams often have a bad player on their roster.

 

Was Delmon Young the reason the Twins and Orioles kept winning? Really?

I don't know what it proves. I am no longer sure it should be ignored. Is it possible Suzuki brings significant value beyond measurement?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know what it proves. I am no longer sure it should be ignored. Is it possible Suzuki brings significant value beyond measurement?

 

Of course it is possible. But as pointed out above......it isn't clear he's been on winners.

[jorgenswest]

Of course it is possible. But as pointed out above......it isn't clear he's been on winners.

Yes. Only 2012 and 2013 were good records on both teams. He played in 212 games which is near 2/3. Neither team felt strong enough about his play to keep him.

 

On the surface it is one position where Twin production is far below league average at the position. Measures suggest it is a position the Twins can make solid gains just by approaching league average. Is there anything unmeasured the Twins would risk losing if they found a perceived upgrade?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes. Only 2012 and 2013 were good records on both teams. He played in 212 games which is near 2/3. Neither team felt strong enough about his play to keep him.

On the surface it is one position where Twin production is far below league average at the position. Measures suggest it is a position the Twins can make solid gains just by approaching league average. Is there anything unmeasured the Twins would risk losing if they found a perceived upgrade?

 

Maybe they should look for a SS.....or play Escobar?

[jorgenswest]

Maybe they should look for a SS.....or play Escobar?

The Twins OPS from the SS position ranks 12th of 30. They are getting above median production according to OPS, wRC+ and WOBA. That is with a performance from Santana that should be better in the second half.

 

It is one of few positions where the Twins OPS position split is above the median. They also have above median OPS production from 2B and 3B. Catchers rank 25th.

[howieramone2]

 

I don't know what it proves. I am no longer sure it should be ignored. Is it possible Suzuki brings significant value beyond measurement?

There is no way everything a catcher does is measurable. If the guys on the team really like the catcher, he's a good player. If Glen Perkins rips a catcher in the paper, that means Pinto sucks.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I don't know what it proves. I am no longer sure it should be ignored. Is it possible Suzuki brings significant value beyond measurement?

Well, we've seen that he refuses to come out of games when injured or refuse to admit that he's hurt. Maybe that's something.

[Dantes929]

Sano and Fryer for Bogaerts and Swihart?  Mostly kidding.

[stringer bell]

 

does that make him a good player? does it prove he is a "winner"? No, and no. Great teams often have a bad player on their roster.

 

Was Delmon Young the reason the Twins and Orioles kept winning? Really?

Delmon was a big reason why the Twins won their division in 2010, He even stepped it up a bit in the field IIRC.