Extend Sano

Willihammer · July 25, 2015

Extend him, the kid's legit. Why wait? DO IT! 5... 4... 3... 2... do it. Write it up! Knock it down. Check it off the list. Make it happen. 10... 9... 8... 7... 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1...

kab21 · July 25, 2015

It's not realistic to extend right now, but if I were an over-ambitious GM looking to make a fair offer to a very young still unproven player I think will become a superstar shortly, here is what I would do:

2016: $1M
2017: $1.5M
2018: $4M
2019: $6M
2020: $7M
2021-2023: $10M
2024-2027: $20M

That's 12 years $130M guaranteed money. He gets more than he would by a bit in the pre-arb years and gets less than he MIGHT get if he turns into the guy we all hope he does. That keeps him here for until he is 34. Then at 34 you negotiate one more shorter-term big $$$ contract if he lives up the the hype. In 2028 at 34 year old Sano would probably be something along the lines of 4 years $100M.

So then all said and done he would have made $230M, and got $130M of it guaranteed when he was 22.

It would be hard to pass up for Sano I would think. But in the same respect it would be hard for the Twins to offer. Usually if both sides like it and question it at the same time it is a fair deal.

You aren't buying out arb years for 6M and you aren't buying out FA years (especially that many) for 10M. Latos and Wieters got 5M/yr in their first arb years (and then price in inflation). In addition to that there is nearly no precedent of someone signing a 12 yr deal in his first season. Agents might be willing to listen to buying out 1-2 FA years though. But they won't be selling those years at ordinary player prices (10M/yr (in today's prices) doesn't buy you Nolasco, Ervin or a bunch of other average at best players).

2016 - 1M

2017 - 2M

2018 - 5M (up front money in pre-arb years)

2019 - 8M

2020 - 10M

2021 - 15M (last arb year)

2022 - 23M (1st FA year)

2023 - 25M option (6M buyout)

70M guaranteed with team control of an additional 2 years.

And even this is probably low if they are convinced Sano is a star. Lincecum (a star) got paid 20M/yr in his last 2 arb years (10+ years earlier than this timeline).

tobi0040 · July 27, 2015

You aren't buying out arb years for 6M and you aren't buying out FA years (especially that many) for 10M. Latos and Wieters got 5M/yr in their first arb years (and then price in inflation). In addition to that there is nearly no precedent of someone signing a 12 yr deal in his first season. Agents might be willing to listen to buying out 1-2 FA years though. But they won't be selling those years at ordinary player prices (10M/yr (in today's prices) doesn't buy you Nolasco, Ervin or a bunch of other average at best players).

2016 - 1M
2017 - 2M
2018 - 5M (up front money in pre-arb years)
2019 - 8M
2020 - 10M
2021 - 15M (last arb year)
2022 - 23M (1st FA year)
2023 - 25M option (6M buyout)

70M guaranteed with team control of an additional 2 years.

And even this is probably low if they are convinced Sano is a star. Lincecum (a star) got paid 20M/yr in his last 2 arb years (10+ years earlier than this timeline).

You never really know what a guy will accept or not accept. On top of that, his agent has no real track record of this as he is primarily a latin based agent of young prospects. Sano would be the first one that really hit big. So maybe offering $70M would be enough to hit a payday for both Sano and the agent. Or maybe the agent feels like Sano is one of the very few that he will have that will ever hit big so he will wait for the $300M payday.

For many people, when they are 22, getting money thrown at them that will allow them to be financially good for the rest of their life....it is tough to say no. His biggest risk right now if probably injury risk and this would take that off the table. Obviously a trade-off exists and he is potentially taking less money if he is healthy.

kab21 · July 28, 2015

Regardless of that there are almost no examples of players that have been bought out of 5 years of FA for less then elite (20M/yr) prices. Agents are willing to sign contracts that offer a big payday early in arb or pre arb but usually those contracts only buy out 1-2 years of FA. That gets them up front money and it allows them to sign a mega-contract.

tobi0040 · July 28, 2015

Regardless of that there are almost no examples of players that have been bought out of 5 years of FA for less then elite (20M/yr) prices. Agents are willing to sign contracts that offer a big payday early in arb or pre arb but usually those contracts only buy out 1-2 years of FA. That gets them up front money and it allows them to sign a mega-contract.

I would concede 1-2 years of FA is more likely than five. I think the initial comments about 15 years were not very realistic.

But Longoria is one example. Signed 6-17M days into his career. That is really cheap arb prices and that deal had three options averaging $9M a year (9-44 with options). Then he went out and added 6/100, which is slightly less than $20M and then gave TB an option on the 7th year at only $13M. That deal would have averaged $16M over those 7 years. You just never know the risk profile of the player and agent. I have been shocked on both sides, what certain guys agreed to and what others have turned down.

kab21 · July 28, 2015

It still only bought out 2 years of FA since TB kept him in the minors for the required two weeks to screw him. And I think every agent considers that contract to be the one to avoid at all costs because it was a ridiculous steal.

Even that 7th year option 'bargain' is misleading. He will be 37+ at the time. He might be done by then but he still got some guaranteed money that season.

twinsfan34 · July 28, 2015

15 years is too much for me. Guy just had Tommy John surgery. He might be a DH only the rest of his career. Which is not the worst thing.

Let's look at a highly possible, yet very good (maybe best?) case scenario for Sano.

His first three years would be approximately, $507K (2015), $512 (2016), $515 (2017) then arbitration kicks in is where it gets whacky. Player's bid vs team's bid. IF Sano hits 40 HR in year 3, he could ask (and get) $10M+ for these 3 years pretty easily. Neil Walker and Dexter Fowler, among others, are already getting $8M-$9M.

So, going along with a good/best case scenario for Sano, that is 35-45 HR in 2017 (I'd love this to be the case), he could easily ask for and get $10M-$15M here. And well, by his 3rd arb year, perhaps $20M. Let's say this is the scenario, $500K (x), $10M, $15M, $20M. That would equate to 6 years, $46.5M.

At this point, he's 28, an annual 35+ HR slugger. He's got $25M+ per year possibility here - 10 years+ too. Assuming no more injuries.

So 4 more years to get to 10 years...that's another $100M, so $46.5 + $100M for 10 years $146.5.

There's no guarantee Sano would do this well and the injury bug doesn't hit him. So you can use that as a starting point to offer 'security' (for Sano) and cost savings (for the Twins) and start to inch that number down. So someone else had the offer of 10 years, $130M. That might be a good (reasonable?) place to start. Maybe even $120M for 10 years.

That would still allow him to get a contract at 32. But that might be a bit long in the years.

So, maybe another offer more in the middle, let's say we put 8 years $80M on the table for Sano.

How does that sound?

70charger · August 13, 2015

Sooooo....

How 'bout now?

twinsnorth49 · August 13, 2015

25 years, 1 billion.

Shane Wahl · August 13, 2015

25 years, 1 billion.

Haha. This really made me laugh.

They could try 10 years and $175 million. 10, 10, 10, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 25.

70charger · August 13, 2015

25 years, 1 billion.

Which side says no first?

Brock Beauchamp · August 13, 2015

Which side says no first?

Sano, because Ryan is counting the zeroes for the sixteenth time, completely unable to respond.

darin617 · August 13, 2015

please kill this feed. he would not sign a 8 year $80M offer let alone a 15 year deal. maybe Salvador Pérez agent would think it was a good deal but no one else would.

Willihammer · August 13, 2015

Its 2009 and Sano is AAPL. There is a golden opportunity here. Let's go, make him a Twin for life.

twinsnorth49 · August 13, 2015

please kill this feed. he would not sign a 8 year $80M offer let alone a 15 year deal. maybe Salvador Pérez agent would think it was a good deal but no one else would.

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/hand-gestures/facepalm-smiley-emoticon.gif

Boom Boom · August 13, 2015

Let's not jump the gun. Miggsy needs to learn to shorten up that swing and hit more singles to right field... and would it kill him to advance a runner every once in a while?

Otto von Ballpark · August 13, 2015

and would it kill him to advance a runner every once in a while?

To be fair, he advanced 6 of them to home plate last night.

nicksaviking · August 13, 2015

To be fair, he advanced 6 of them to home plate last night.

And one of them by going the opposite way, right into the rightfielder's glove.

tobi0040 · August 14, 2015

please kill this feed. he would not sign a 8 year $80M offer let alone a 15 year deal. maybe Salvador Pérez agent would think it was a good deal but no one else would.

The team that would not sign 8/80 is the Twins. He will make $1.5M the next three years. My understanding is he would then have 4 arb years. Even optimistic numbers would be 6, 10, 15, and 20. 8/80 would effectively be buying out one FA year at $18.5M. Really not a huge discount here for the Twins.

Effectively just pre-paying him for 8 years and taking all the injury risk. In exchange for taking on that risk the Twins need more than one FA year and/or a discount somewhere.

But I would hope the Twins would approach Sano this off-season. It would be nice to keep Sano with the Twins until he has at least 31-32 (9-10 years). He is in the Johan/young Mauer mold from a talent perspective. Waiting on both did not work out for us. Both effectively got to a point that the market value did not make sense for us. In one of those instances we went ahead anyway.

Willihammer · September 21, 2015

Reason # 410 to extend Sano: He is seeing the highest average velocity fastballs of any hitter in the game, from pitchers who are better than average, and crushing them.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/miguel-sano-minnesota-twins-case-for-designated-hitter-to-win-rookie-of-the-year-091815

Loosey · September 21, 2015

Extend, Extend, Extend! Using crude math I am assuming over his next 7 years he will make about $55M through is rookie deal and arbitration years.

If I were the Twins I would offer him this:

11 years, $135M That's an average of $12.27M/Year

Years 1-4

$3M

$5M

$10M

$12M

Years 5-11

$15M per year

nicksaviking · September 21, 2015

Reason # 410 to extend Sano: He is seeing the highest average velocity fastballs of any hitter in the game, from pitchers who are better than average, and crushing them.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/miguel-sano-minnesota-twins-case-for-designated-hitter-to-win-rookie-of-the-year-091815

Facing Salazar and Kluber the next two games ain't going to hurt that avg fastball velocity either.

Ugh, I just realized the Twins are facing Salazar and Kluber the next two games.

Willihammer · October 5, 2015

Ok, season's over. Extend Sano before the Cubs extend Bryant for 15/335

Mike Sixel · October 5, 2015

It would take at least 15-20 MM per year, to go past 5 years, for each year.

The way salaries are going, he can expect to make around $40MM per year by the time he is in his mid to late twenties. To buy out any of that, you need to OVERPAY for the next 4 years.

HitInAPinch · October 5, 2015

Give me another half - 3/4 of a season before I'd think about it.

DaveW · October 5, 2015

His strike outs and late season "struggles" (Still posted a .800 OPS over Sept/Oct) indicates that if we are ever going to be able to get him at even a slight discount, now is the time.

Is there risk? Absolutely, could it not "work out"? Absolutely.

With a talent like this I think the risk is more than worth it.

Ultimately at the end of the day I will never blame a team for paying for elite talent, sometimes it doesn't work out (Mauer), but at least they tried and gave the money to elite guys instead of a bunch of average guys spread out.

Willihammer · October 5, 2015

Extending Sano wouldn't be that risky. We already know he can be a ~.900 DH at worst.

Extending Escobar would be risky.

tobi0040 · October 6, 2015

It would take at least 15-20 MM per year, to go past 5 years, for each year.

The way salaries are going, he can expect to make around $40MM per year by the time he is in his mid to late twenties. To buy out any of that, you need to OVERPAY for the next 4 years.

Please explain how in 3-4 years the top position player is going to make $40M?

Fifteen years ago the highest AAV deal for a position player was around $20M and then A-Rod made it $25M. Seven years later A-Rod beat his own record at $27.5M. Now we are sitting in the $30M range. 50% growth in 15 years. I get that revenues have risen, but I think the salary inflation is overstated at the high end.

And I love Sano as much as the others, but Miguel Cabrera is a triple crown threat each year. Mike Trout may win 7 or so MVP's when it is all said and done. In additional to the hit tool, he has a good glove and steals a ton of bases. So the risk in my eyes of Sano doing it all and making more than Trout is low.

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