Time to make some bullpen moves

[drjim]

 

No. Just, no. They, the team, may think they are fighting for a playoff spot. But they aren't. This team is over it's collective head. I know we all want to cheer for a winner so bad after so many poor years, but can we please stop pretending that this team is anything but a pretender? The Twins were very, very lucky with run scoring sequencing for a month and now we're all convinced this team is a playoff contender... please.

 

If the season ended today they would be in the playoffs and the AL is mediocre as a whole. All teams are flawed in some way. I personally am in favor of patience in general but if an opportunity is in front of you nothing wrong with taking it.

 

I certainly wouldn't trade a core prospect for a rental this year, but moving a prospect in the mid teens to shore up an obvious weakness is a pretty low cost and strikes me as a no brainer. The Twins still have a couple of prospects that could make a difference when called up (Sano, Meyer, Polanco) and a potential rebound from Arica/DSantana/Vargas in the second half. Get a reliever or two and maybe a corner bat rental at the deadline (if needed and still in it) and give it a shot.

 

Worst case is the young guys are playing meaningful ball in September. That is beneficial to a rebuild too.

[spinowner]

 

If the season ended today they would be in the playoffs and the AL is mediocre as a whole. All teams are flawed in some way. I personally am in favor of patience in general but if an opportunity is in front of you nothing wrong with taking it.

 

I certainly wouldn't trade a core prospect for a rental this year, but moving a prospect in the mid teens to shore up an obvious weakness is a pretty low cost and strikes me as a no brainer. The Twins still have a couple of prospects that could make a difference when called up (Sano, Meyer, Polanco) and a potential rebound from Arica/DSantana/Vargas in the second half. Get a reliever or two and maybe a corner bat rental at the deadline (if needed and still in it) and give it a shot.

 

Worst case is the young guys are playing meaningful ball in September. That is beneficial to a rebuild too.

The AL is not mediocre. Currently the AL has a record of 84-66 (.560) in interleague play.

Shoring up an obvious weakness may be low cost or may not be. It depends on the specific players involved. Making the team better in 2015 should not come at the cost of making the team worse in 2016 and beyond.

[puckstopper1]

Was listening to Terry Ryan on the radio yesterday.  They may make some bullpen moves sooner, but they hope to wait until Santana (and eventually Nolasco) come back.  Those returns may mean two current starters could go to the bullpen, which would significantly change the bullpens make-up.

[GACbaseball]

They hope to wait until Santana (and eventually Nolasco) come back.  Those returns may mean two current starters could go to the bullpen, which would significantly change the bullpens make-up.

We don't need to go outside of the organization for quality arms, especially when these two come back. Milone and May likely go to the bullpen. Milone would remove one of Thompson/Duensing, and May can provide another guy that can actually strike someone out. Alex Meyer is pounding on the door as well!

 

No reason to give up Chargois or any prospect when we are about to have a relative logjam of pitchers at the major league level

[Mike Sixel]

I'm shocked that a Twins' coach would say Duensing is fine, just shocked.

 

they clearly love they guy. As we know, love is irrational.....

 

Not sure why they insist on drafting and developing RP, if they won't call them up......

 

edit: And, this bullpen was bad from the beginning, it is well past time for change.

[jorgenswest]

I expect Allen to back up all of his pitchers in the press. Not shocked.

[drjim]

 

I expect Allen to back up all of his pitchers in the press. Not shocked.

 

Also, when there are pretty much no other internal options for LH relievers they don't have much of a choice.

[drjim]

 

Not sure why they insist on drafting and developing RP, if they won't call them up......

 

So your solution is to call up relievers that are struggling in AA?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Also, when there are pretty much no other internal options for LH relievers they don't have much of a choice.

 

how about a righty that doesn't have an 8.22 ERA? He is supposed to only be put in positions where he has a clear advantage, and he has an ERA over 8......

[Mike Sixel]

 

So your solution is to call up relievers that are struggling in AA?

 

Mine would be to cut guys over 30 that weren't good last year, and are terrible this year, and see what you have in Achter, Oliveras, or Meyer.

 

Or, Taylor rogers, who has almost no chance to start on this team.....move him to the bullpen and have him dominate lefties.

 

draft, trade for, whatever.....they have options better than a specialist who is terrible at his job.

 

[DaveW]

Clippard would be a great pick up.

 

 

The Twins need to get a proven shut down guy, I'd prefer Chapman or Papelbon, but Clippard would be right behind them.

[jorgenswest]

I would like to see if they have an answer in house before trading a prospect at the deadline.

[jorgenswest]

Clippard's strikeout rate this year has dropped from 29.5% to 22.1%. His walk rate has increased from 8.3% to 10.1%. His groundball rate has dropped from 36.9% to 19.5%. Those numbers lead to a FIP of 3.96 as compared to 2.75 last year and an xFIP of 5.21. There are only 8 relievers with at least 30 IP with a FIP- above 100 (worse than league average). Clippard and Boyer are two of them.

 

Clippard might not be a great pick up. Maybe not even a good pick up.

[Vanimal46]

While I do not agree with the original poster's examples of Darnell and Thielbar to call up, it is still long overdue to make some changes in the bullpen. And similar to what Mike and others are saying, the solution needs to come from in-house. My preference would be to see any of these guys: Burdi, Atcher, Meyer....

 

We can discuss until our hands go numb from typing on whether the 2015 Twins are contenders or pretenders, and if we should be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. My Taurus stubbornness remains the same that I do not want to sell off pieces of the farm for an immediate bullpen need. If this was 2016 or beyond I will think differently, but I want to remain on the plan they set out and see as many kids from the minors as possible this season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pulled from the Boyer-specific thread...

 

Fien's back in the set up role.

 

I think it's ridiculous to say that Boyer isn't good enough. He's been good enough all year. Sure, today he gave up three runs, but the results don't match how he pitched. The first batter grounded to second and it's a play Dozier makes 9 out of 10 times. Called a hit. The Buxton errant throw allowed Rizzo to move up and then score on the next bloop single. Then another scored on another bloop single.

 

I get it. We want strikeouts and that's why Fien is back in the 8th inning role, but Boyer's been way too good to disrespect and say he hasn't been. He's earned his role this year.

 

Do I expect him to stay good? Probably not, but he's earned the opportunity.

Fein is the "eighth inning guy" but that's not an exclusive everyday spot, nor does it make him the clear #2 in the pen.  Since Fien's return May 29th, Boyer still has the higher average game-entering leverage index.  They are really more like "2a" and "2b" in the bullpen depth chart, and both will see frequent late inning action in very close games.

 

And if you give every player an opportunity to fail before making a move or adjustment, you're likely to lose any benefit gained from prior good performance.  It doesn't take any player evaluation skill to use roster and playing time decisions as rewards for past performance -- for the Twins to gain an edge, they have to effectively predict future player performance, and sometimes that involves making decisions hat on the surface run counter to the reward system.

 

Not saying that they have to cut Boyer, but by this point they really should have found a way to reduce their reliance on him.  Even more glaring, Thompson should have been optioned some time ago, and going back further, Duensing could have been non-tendered under the same principle.

[howieramone2]

 

Normally I'd agree, but I'll cut him some slack with the TJ surgery, and the team's bizarre usage of him. Such as, why has he been starting lately? With his stuff, and the underwhelming abilities of the rest of the relief corp, he and Perkins should have been the only guys with a bullpen spot locked before spring training began. Instead he was sent packing the first week with no legit justification.

If it wasn't legit when they dumped him, it became legit when 29 other teams showed absolutely no interest. I believe they are starting him to showcase him to other teams. Our favorite team must be running out of baseballs.

[howieramone2]

 

If the season ended today they would be in the playoffs and the AL is mediocre as a whole. All teams are flawed in some way. I personally am in favor of patience in general but if an opportunity is in front of you nothing wrong with taking it.

 

I certainly wouldn't trade a core prospect for a rental this year, but moving a prospect in the mid teens to shore up an obvious weakness is a pretty low cost and strikes me as a no brainer. The Twins still have a couple of prospects that could make a difference when called up (Sano, Meyer, Polanco) and a potential rebound from Arica/DSantana/Vargas in the second half. Get a reliever or two and maybe a corner bat rental at the deadline (if needed and still in it) and give it a shot.

 

Worst case is the young guys are playing meaningful ball in September. That is beneficial to a rebuild too.

This is the greatest post ever!

[d-mac]

 

If the season ended today they would be in the playoffs and the AL is mediocre as a whole. All teams are flawed in some way. I personally am in favor of patience in general but if an opportunity is in front of you nothing wrong with taking it.

 

I certainly wouldn't trade a core prospect for a rental this year, but moving a prospect in the mid teens to shore up an obvious weakness is a pretty low cost and strikes me as a no brainer. The Twins still have a couple of prospects that could make a difference when called up (Sano, Meyer, Polanco) and a potential rebound from Arica/DSantana/Vargas in the second half. Get a reliever or two and maybe a corner bat rental at the deadline (if needed and still in it) and give it a shot.

 

Worst case is the young guys are playing meaningful ball in September. That is beneficial to a rebuild too.

 

That's great. But the reality is this team has one of the worst offenses in baseball. They are 27th in the MLB in wRC+, only the White Sox are worse in the AL. They are 24th in wOBA, only the White Sox and the Mariners are worse in the AL. The starting rotation, while greatly improved, is still a mediocre 21st in xFIP and dead last, yet again in K/9. I don't think many of us Twins fans don't realize how many standard deviations away from league average our pitching has been these past few years. 

 

And yes, the bullpen is awful. It is dead last in baseball in xFIP and in last place in K/9- in fact it averages over a half a strikeout per nine innings less than the next worse team. But the bullpen isn't going to win games when we are losing already in the 6th inning because nobody on this team can get on base and the starting rotation isn't good enough to hold 1-0, 2-1 leads all season. Trading for Tyler Clippard just isn't going to be a needle mover this season and will likely fall on the scale between, "what was the point of that?" and "we gave up him for that?!"

 

Also, remember the last time we traded for bullpen arms? J.J. Hardy and Wilson Ramos would certainly fill areas of need on this team.  

[d-mac]

 

I expect Allen to back up all of his pitchers in the press. Not shocked.

 

Any good coach would.

[HitInAPinch]

Thompson and Tonkin have had their moments.  Now those moments are over.  But promoting Alex Meyer based on only 16 innings of relief work?  Oh, no.

 

The plan has always been for Meyer to get some less stress innings pitching out the the bullpen and then get moved back into the rotation.  I see many local sports guys and bloggers are abbreviating that to "Twins move Meyers to Bullpen".  Um, no    Twins management has been clear:  Meyer to bullpen to clear his head, then he will be a starter again.

 

I'd like to see Lester Oliveros get his shot.  After that, the "lefty du jour".

[jimbo92107]

The Twins are coming down from the statistical illusion that was the whole first third of their season. This "contender" will still be lucky to get a wildcard berth, and isn't by any means built to withstand the pressure of the playoffs. Look at Santana - on the verge of emotional collapse before being sent down. Look at Buxton - headed in the same direction. Hicks had to be sent down twice to learn how to swing a baseball bat. Arcia forgot how to hit, and never could field. The starters are reclamation projects, retreads and one rookie. The bullpen is one really good closer, two Rule 5 guys, and then little else. Shortstop and Left Field are held down by two journeyman utility guys. Second base is the best player on the team, while First and Third are good fielders, but spotty hitters. No power from the First baseman's bat. Catcher is good, but nothing spectacular. DH is also struggling - with the bat.

 

Does this sound like a realistic contender? No, it's not. There is no reason to sell the farm before the harvest here. This team has far too many holes to fill with one or two high-profile free agents. Far better to use this season to give the most promising minor leaguers, like Buxton and Meyer and Sano, a taste of the bigs, so they can see up close the level of competition they need to prepare for.

 

Go ahead and bring up some of the AAA relievers. This is the time to see who can handle the pressure, and who's not ready. Same with the top prospects in AAA and AA, if and when their game looks stable enough. This is not a World Series year. That's still a ways down the road.

 

Oh, I forgot Rosario. He looks fine. He stays.

[GACbaseball]

The Twins are coming down from the statistical illusion that was the whole first third of their season. This "contender" will still be lucky to get a wildcard berth, and isn't by any means built to withstand the pressure of the playoffs. Look at Santana - on the verge of emotional collapse before being sent down. Look at Buxton - headed in the same direction. Hicks had to be sent down twice to learn how to swing a baseball bat. Arcia forgot how to hit, and never could field. The starters are reclamation projects, retreads and one rookie. The bullpen is one really good closer, two Rule 5 guys, and then little else. Shortstop and Left Field are held down by two journeyman utility guys. Second base is the best player on the team, while First and Third are good fielders, but spotty hitters. No power from the First baseman's bat. Catcher is good, but nothing spectacular. DH is also struggling - with the bat.

 

This is not a World Series year.

Not sure your assessment of our team is very accurate... Left field is currently being held down by a promising hitter AND fielder in Eddie Rosario, Buxton is hitting very poorly but has been a slow starter historically so his talent should win out eventually. Torii is still getting it done at the plate. I wouldn't consider Plouffe's hitting to be "spotty," as he's been very good this year. Sure we have a hole at shortstop and could use more power from DH and 1B, but there's not a complete team in the league.

 

Our starters are a lot better than you are implying too, Hughes has a good track record, especially once he got out of Yankee Stadium which he was not suited for. Gibson and May both have a ton of promise and have started to put it together. Ervin Santana has a long track record of success. Pelfrey may regress some but he has plenty of "stuff." It's not like we're throwing Scott Diamonds out there!

 

Obviously we are overperforming some but we do have a pretty good team.

[spinowner]

 

Obviously we are overperforming some but we do have a pretty good team.

If we are overperforming at 37-32 then we have an average team at best.

 

I agree with pretty much everything jimbo92107 wrote. I've said many times that the mission of the Twins organization in 2015 is to prepare their best prospects as well as possible with the goal of contending in 2016 and beyond.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thompson and Tonkin have had their moments.  Now those moments are over.  But promoting Alex Meyer based on only 16 innings of relief work?  Oh, no.

 

The plan has always been for Meyer to get some less stress innings pitching out the the bullpen and then get moved back into the rotation.  I see many local sports guys and bloggers are abbreviating that to "Twins move Meyers to Bullpen".  Um, no    Twins management has been clear:  Meyer to bullpen to clear his head, then he will be a starter again.

 

I'd like to see Lester Oliveros get his shot.  After that, the "lefty du jour".

Meyer arguably should have been promoted last season, and could have been on a fast track in 2013 before his shoulder issues, so a promotion now would not be based on "only" 16 innings relief.

 

If he's going to see more action in the bullpen before returning to starting, I don't see why those innings couldn't come at the MLB level.  He's going to have to face MLB hitters eventually.

[GACbaseball]

I agree with pretty much everything jimbo92107 wrote. I've said many times that the mission of the Twins organization in 2015 is to prepare their best prospects as well as possible with the goal of contending in 2016 and beyond.

You also don't want to give up on an opportunity to make the playoffs. Remember when Strasburg was shut down to save him for the future? Maybe the Nats could have done something in the playoffs if he pitched.

 

I'm not arguing we should give up on the future and go all in right now, I definitely agree that we should not give up any prospects for a mild short term upgrade. I'm just saying we are a better team than you guys are portraying. There's no reason we can't be competitive now while developing prospects.

[Shane Wahl]

Oliveros and Meyer are the two guys who should be next in the bullpen. After that, maybe Achter, but certainly Zach Jones. And if Ryan O'Rourke stays on course after a rough start to the season, I think he is the next lefty.

 

Duensing is done. Thompson served the Twins well but now that is over. Tonkin should get an actual extended chance for once in his career. Next to watch go downhill is Boyer, certainly.

 

Please do not TRADE for a bullpen arm right now. One bullpen arm is not going to make this a playoff team.

[Shane Wahl]

Addendum: moving Meyer to the bullpen for now was the right move. But not there is no reason for those bullpen innings to be in AAA instead of MLB.

[drjim]

 

That's great. But the reality is this team has one of the worst offenses in baseball. They are 27th in the MLB in wRC+, only the White Sox are worse in the AL. They are 24th in wOBA, only the White Sox and the Mariners are worse in the AL. The starting rotation, while greatly improved, is still a mediocre 21st in xFIP and dead last, yet again in K/9. I don't think many of us Twins fans don't realize how many standard deviations away from league average our pitching has been these past few years. 

 

And yes, the bullpen is awful. It is dead last in baseball in xFIP and in last place in K/9- in fact it averages over a half a strikeout per nine innings less than the next worse team. But the bullpen isn't going to win games when we are losing already in the 6th inning because nobody on this team can get on base and the starting rotation isn't good enough to hold 1-0, 2-1 leads all season. Trading for Tyler Clippard just isn't going to be a needle mover this season and will likely fall on the scale between, "what was the point of that?" and "we gave up him for that?!"

 

Also, remember the last time we traded for bullpen arms? J.J. Hardy and Wilson Ramos would certainly fill areas of need on this team.  

 

I'm not naive to the numbers but if you refuse to do anything because you are going to regress at some point it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. While those numbers describe the first part of the season I still think they have the ability to lift their true talent level by, for instance, making a trade.

 

Regarding the trades you mentioned, those were fiascos, but it was also by a different GM. Because the Twins made some poor trades 5 years ago that means no more trades? Also, you didn't mention trades that got Rauch, Fuentes, Diamond, Pavano, etc. Minor moves that added value for no cost, the exact type I'm thinking of for Clippard.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Meyer arguably should have been promoted last season, and could have been on a fast track in 2013 before his shoulder issues, so a promotion now would not be based on "only" 16 innings relief.

 

If he's going to see more action in the bullpen before returning to starting, I don't see why those innings couldn't come at the MLB level.  He's going to have to face MLB hitters eventually.

 

If you want to base it on all of Meyer's 2015 stats [WHIP of 1.671, highest of his MiLB career] no way is he even considered. 

I can see getting some time in, as a reliever, in the MLB.  However, Meyer was sent to the pen to create an atmosphere of less stress for him.  How would that work out better for him to face MLB hitters?

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Addendum: moving Meyer to the bullpen for now was the right move. But not there is no reason for those bullpen innings to be in AAA instead of MLB.

 

How would that work out better for him to face MLB hitters?  He was moved to the bullpen in the hopes he would created less stress on himself.  There are other, I'd say better, alternatives to Meyer at AAA and AA.  At least, right now.