Cameron: this team isn’t actually all that good

[Mike Sixel]

I suggested the Escobar for Santana thing some time ago. I wish I had been more wrong.

[Vanimal46]

Dave Cameron: "Well, I just got the assignment from the big man to write about the Twins, this should be fun. Now let's type in some numbers in the system to talk analytics."

*furiously fills numbers into computer system*

DC: "Hmm, can't compute? Maybe I just typed in a wrong number somewhere..."

*fixes error, and types 30 into Win Total column, hits enter*

DC: "This is taking much longer to process, hmm."

*walks away to get AM coffee and chat up Amy the new receptionist*

DC: "OH MY GOD get Tim from IT in here immediately! The system couldn't handle the Twins projections, and now it's deleting everything on the server!"

*Dave, still mad about the Twins breaking their precious projection algorithm, decides to write that the Twins really aren't this good and Baseruns is the only projection that matters

 

At least that's how I imagined how his morning went when he wrote his article........

[Linus]

 

Well, Arcia was hurt, and doesn't appear to be MLB ready yet, so I don't think it's a developmental question for him at this point.  (Could be soon, but I'd be rather surprised if they demoted him for anything more than essentially a short extension of his rehab.)

 

They are using Escobar in LF too so I think it's pretty obvious they are trying to get his bat in the lineup every day, and it's fair to debate the merits of that (especially as they continue with Santana at SS).

 

And given their history with DH's, I think it's also a possibility they are holding young potential DH's to a too-high standard, as compared to utility players (or theoretical utility players like Nunez).

Agreed regarding Arcia.  I would expect they will leave him down there until he starts to hit, which probably won't be too long then bring him up.  Vargas is a different story.

 

On Inside Twins, TR made the comment that they were trying "to get Escobar going" which supports your notion of why he is getting starts in LF.  I would expect this to work itself out soon as they can't go much longer with Santana struggling this badly.

[jimbo92107]

 

The article ignores the return of Ervin Santana. Pretty much the equivalent of a trade at the deadline without actually trading someone.

 

Also, there are some very good bats and arms at Rochester.

 

Plus, the longer the Twins continue to win, the closer they come to a point where .500 ball the rest of the season translates into a playoff appearance.

True, plus the article doesn't account for the reason some of the Twins batters have a higher average with RISP: It's a tactical change in approach. Mauer especially is reverting to his RBI mode when runners are on base, but when they're empty he's working on his power game, which isn't working out very well, thus one grounder to second after another, with an average of about .188. His avg with runners on? About .387, last I looked. That's no statistical anomaly, it's an intentional difference in approach.

 

I think Molitor has got the whole team thinking that way, and that's why they're doing such an outstanding job driving in baserunners. Molitor has the Twins taking advantage of "the moment" better than any other team in baseball, by a long shot. Can this approach be sustained? I have no idea. The stats appear to say no, but then the stats still do not contain within them all that makes baseball such an interesting game.

[SwainZag]

 

Dave Cameron: "Well, I just got the assignment from the big man to write about the Twins, this should be fun. Now let's type in some numbers in the system to talk analytics."

*furiously fills numbers into computer system*

DC: "Hmm, can't compute? Maybe I just typed in a wrong number somewhere..."

*fixes error, and types 30 into Win Total column, hits enter*

DC: "This is taking much longer to process, hmm."

*walks away to get AM coffee and chat up Amy the new receptionist*

DC: "OH MY GOD get Tim from IT in here immediately! The system couldn't handle the Twins projections, and now it's deleting everything on the server!"

*Dave, still mad about the Twins breaking their precious projection algorithm, decides to write that the Twins really aren't this good and Baseruns is the only projection that matters

 

At least that's how I imagined how his morning went when he wrote his article........

 

We can imagine how this went all you want or you can throw out that Cameron had an objective when going to right the article and used historical statistics to outline what the Twins have been so far this year.  Their stats have also shown that the Twins projections of making the playoffs have went from 3% before the season to 27% just 1/3 the way into the season.

 

Take it was a grain of salt, enjoy the good baseall and let's not assume that Cameron is just out there to anger us hardcore fans who are walking around with a smile on my face in June because of Twins baseball....and not because of Vikings OTA's are starting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Agreed regarding Arcia.  I would expect they will leave him down there until he starts to hit, which probably won't be too long then bring him up.  Vargas is a different story.

 

On Inside Twins, TR made the comment that they were trying "to get Escobar going" which supports your notion of why he is getting starts in LF.  I would expect this to work itself out soon as they can't go much longer with Santana struggling this badly.

 

Why do people think they want Escobar to get going so badly? Does he have a track record that suggests that is likely?

[twinsnorth49]

 

Why do people think they want Escobar to get going so badly? Does he have a track record that suggests that is likely?

Is that a rhetorical question?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is that a rhetorical question?

 

No, I am genuinely curious. I mean, is he the kind of guy they think is really good? Or do they just want to get him going because he's on the team? Why send Vargas down, and not "try to get him going"? What is different about Escobar, that the right way to "fix" him is to keep playing him?

 

These are the things I think about instead of the PM that is making it harder for my team to succeed at work right now.

[BK432]

 

Mauer especially is reverting to his RBI mode when runners are on base, but when they're empty he's working on his power game, which isn't working out very well, thus one grounder to second after another, with an average of about .188. His avg with runners on? About .387, last I looked. That's no statistical anomaly, it's an intentional difference in approach.

 

 

 

Jimbo, I'm not trying to pick on you. What you're saying.....who knows, it could be right. But how the heck do we know this (especially the part in bold)? Why would someone just decide "hey, I'm going to try and drive in runs now?" and then just do it? How does that work?

 

Sometimes I feel as if there is actual intent by some to ignore facts. I don't know why we would want to stick our heads in the sand instead of trying to figure out why the Twins are outperforming expectations. The answer is in the article: the Twins are doing an inordinately superb job in high-leverage situations, both on offense and defense.

 

The rest is pure speculation: is it luck? Is it that Molitor is the greatest manager of all time? Is it Hunter's dance parties? Nobody knows. I'm comfortable with that. Cameron gives historical context that shows the Twins BaseRuns performance would be a historical outlier of crazy proportion. Draw your own conclusions from there, I guess.

 

I am having so much fun this season watching the team win. During the game, I couldn't care less about BaseRun score. But between games, it enhances my love for the game and for the organization to try and understand what's happening. And the great thing is, like it's been said, the wins count the same. No matter what happens, it's very likely that July and August and maybe even September will be pretty damn intriguing around here. And we have four years' experience that tell us that 'intriguing' is way better than a very depressing alternative.

[Vanimal46]

 

We can imagine how this went all you want or you can throw out that Cameron had an objective when going to right the article and used historical statistics to outline what the Twins have been so far this year.  Their stats have also shown that the Twins projections of making the playoffs have went from 3% before the season to 27% just 1/3 the way into the season.

 

Take it was a grain of salt, enjoy the good baseall and let's not assume that Cameron is just out there to anger us hardcore fans who are walking around with a smile on my face in June because of Twins baseball....and not because of Vikings OTA's are starting.

 

I guess I should have put a disclaimer at the bottom that stated this post is a joke.

[ashbury]

I've also played on bad teams with good chemistry and good teams bad chemistry.  Which do you think won more games?

The team with good chemistry. Because that's what we call it when teams win.

 

The Twins have great chemistry right now.

Nobody was particularly talking about their chemistry when they were losing in April. Torii and his Mentorin' was the stuff of jokes. Now their chemistry is the stuff of serious conversation? What's the difference? Winning.

 

The Royals had it last year and still have it.

 

Nobody was talking about the Royals' chemistry until they started winning.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

 

The Royals had it last year and still have it.

 

Nobody was talking about the Royals' chemistry until they started winning.

 

And in reverse - remember all the great chemistry the A's had?  Well all those characters stayed last year and they were awful in the second half.  Suddenly that chemistry talk went away then too.

[Craig Arko]

The team with good chemistry. Because that's what we call it when teams win.

 

 

Nobody was particularly talking about their chemistry when they were losing in April. Torii and his Mentorin' was the stuff of jokes. Now their chemistry is the stuff of serious conversation? What's the difference? Winning.

 

The Royals had it last year and still have it.

 

Nobody was talking about the Royals' chemistry until they started winning.

I think I see the problem here. It's not chemistry; it's physics.

[gocgo]

 

The team with good chemistry. Because that's what we call it when teams win.

 

Nobody was particularly talking about their chemistry when they were losing in April. Torii and his Mentorin' was the stuff of jokes. Now their chemistry is the stuff of serious conversation? What's the difference? Winning.

 

The Royals had it last year and still have it.

 

Nobody was talking about the Royals' chemistry until they started winning.

All good points...winning cures everything!  The part about Tori's mentoring in April was frustrating because he had no one to mentor at that time.  Hicks and Rosario were both in the minors.  I like the current outfield.  Wish that Hicks had tied it last night, but it was a solid AB against a pitcher that was dealing.

[drjim]

Did anyone catch Cameron on his Fangraphs audio hit yesterday? Generally a pretty good podcast but the discussion of the article was uninspired. Did prove that while he has a good understanding of BaseRuns and the gap of the Twins, he has little idea of what is actually going on with the team.

 

His big takeaway was that they were too giving at bats to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson, and his idea was to avoid big trade and focus on smaller moves (probably wise) by focusing on second tier starting pitching like Mike Leake (which would make no sense).

 

My takeaway, skimming the article again after listening to the podcast is that Cameron is a very talented writer, able to weave a good statistical analysis into a context that he clearly knows very little about. Perhaps that is the vast majority of national articles?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

His big takeaway was that they were too giving at bats to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson, and his idea was to avoid big trade and focus on smaller moves (probably wise) by focusing on second tier starting pitching like Mike Leake (which would make no sense).

Ish. While I don't disagree with most of the article, that analysis is flawed to the point where you have to question if Cameron has even glanced at the Twins' roster in the past eight weeks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

His big takeaway was that they were too giving at bats to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson, and his idea was to avoid big trade and focus on smaller moves (probably wise) by focusing on second tier starting pitching like Mike Leake (which would make no sense).

This isn't really a fair summary of Cameron's comments at all.

 

In describing the problems with the team's talent, he said "Eduardo Escobar is their starting left fielder, they've given significant at-bats to Jordan Schafer, their pitching staff is not good, their bullpen is bad outside of Glen Perkins".  Which are all fair points when discussing the 2015 Twins season to date and/or present roster.

 

His generic trade suggesting was trading non-top prospects (as you mention) for "a capable #5 starter and a major league left fielder, maybe a decent utility infielder or something."

 

When pressed about predicting what kind of moves Terry Ryan specifically might make, he guessed if they were to go after a pitcher, it would be a guy who throws strikes and doesn't strike many guys out.  He said it wouldn't be wise for them to get into bidding for Hamels or Cueto.  "Maybe they call about Mike Leake who is a free agent at the end of the year and isn't pitching well enough to command a huge return."  Or Kyle Lohse.  Although he said again that such a move wouldn't be very helpful to the Twins unless they came along with other useful pieces (like a starting OF/DH), that they really need to add 3-5 players if they are buyers.

 

Ervin Santana wasn't mentioned, so I suspect he forgot about his return, but that's a forgivable sin.

 

You can listen here, the Twins discussion lasts from the 10:30-20:30 marks:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-the-return-of-the-return-of-dave-cameron/

 

My takeaway is that, while I expect that national writers won't always get the nuances of every team correct, is that there are some preconceived notions about national writers (and Cameron specifically) at work here.

[Mike Sixel]

Also, national writers probably start stuff more than 4 hours before posting it......and some things may or may not change in the process. I would expect local guys to be ON TOP of everything, but not national guys.

[Craig Arko]

 

Also, national writers probably start stuff more than 4 hours before posting it......and some things may or may not change in the process. I would expect local guys to be ON TOP of everything, but not national guys.

Plus, it might interfere with their observations of Josh Hamilton's shoe size.

[DaveW]

Cameron is a smart guy, but he has a tough time looking at things without a bias. I still remember his "The Mariners are the 4th best organization" bit a couple years ago.

[SheboyganBrats]

"His generic trade suggesting was trading non-top prospects (as you mention) for 'a capable #5 starter and a major league left fielder, maybe a decent utility infielder or something.' "

 

Am I reading this right?  Does he think the Twins need more #5 starters and more utility infielders?  The left fielder I could see, though I'd rather stick with Rosario for now. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"His generic trade suggesting was trading non-top prospects (as you mention) for 'a capable #5 starter and a major league left fielder, maybe a decent utility infielder or something.' "

 

Am I reading this right?  Does he think the Twins need more #5 starters and more utility infielders?  The left fielder I could see, though I'd rather stick with Rosario for now. 

Listen to the podcast if you want to gauge his tone, but that wasn't it.  I guess even my transcription has trouble capturing that.

 

It was pretty clear he was packaging SP and a starting OF and/or DH as our chief needs, but he may have forgotten about Ervin Santana (who wasn't mentioned in the interview).

 

The utility infielder inclusion was brief and prefaced with a "maybe" -- not an unreasonable brainstorm idea if you see Danny Santana going back to AAA and they might want another option capable of starting at SS (Nunez probably isn't).  Think prime Nick Punto or Jamey Carroll, guys who often surface on contending teams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cameron is a smart guy, but he has a tough time looking at things without a bias. I still remember his "The Mariners are the 4th best organization" bit a couple years ago.

6th best, but yeah, that was funny.  I'm all for mocking Cameron, but I don't think he's terribly ignorant or off base here at all.

[drjim]

 

This isn't really a fair summary of Cameron's comments at all.

 

In describing the problems with the team's talent, he said "Eduardo Escobar is their starting left fielder, they've given significant at-bats to Jordan Schafer, their pitching staff is not good, their bullpen is bad outside of Glen Perkins".  Which are all fair points when discussing the 2015 Twins season to date and/or present roster.

 

His generic trade suggesting was trading non-top prospects (as you mention) for "a capable #5 starter and a major league left fielder, maybe a decent utility infielder or something."

 

When pressed about predicting what kind of moves Terry Ryan specifically might make, he guessed if they were to go after a pitcher, it would be a guy who throws strikes and doesn't strike many guys out.  He said it wouldn't be wise for them to get into bidding for Hamels or Cueto.  "Maybe they call about Mike Leake who is a free agent at the end of the year and isn't pitching well enough to command a huge return."  Or Kyle Lohse.  Although he said again that such a move wouldn't be very helpful to the Twins unless they came along with other useful pieces (like a starting OF/DH), that they really need to add 3-5 players if they are buyers.

 

Ervin Santana wasn't mentioned, so I suspect he forgot about his return, but that's a forgivable sin.

 

You can listen here, the Twins discussion lasts from the 10:30-20:30 marks:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-the-return-of-the-return-of-dave-cameron/

 

My takeaway is that, while I expect that national writers won't always get the nuances of every team correct, is that there are some preconceived notions about national writers (and Cameron specifically) at work here.

 

Thanks for quoting it more specifically, I was going by memory, not right after listening. What I remember is him saying significant at bats to guys that aren't getting them anymore, no mention of players that have been called up or will soon be called up, and the names he mentioned to acquire made no sense. Acquiring a utility guy makes even less sense. Bullpen guy sure.

 

I like Cameron, I certainly think he is one of the best national writers, but it was illuminating to see that sausage made a little bit.

[drjim]

 

Listen to the podcast if you want to gauge his tone, but that wasn't it.  I guess even my transcription has trouble capturing that.

 

It was pretty clear he was packaging SP and a starting OF and/or DH as our chief needs, but he may have forgotten about Ervin Santana (who wasn't mentioned in the interview).

 

The utility infielder inclusion was brief and prefaced with a "maybe" -- not an unreasonable brainstorm idea if you see Danny Santana going back to AAA and they might want another option capable of starting at SS (Nunez probably isn't).  Think prime Nick Punto or Jamey Carroll, guys who often surface on contending teams.

 

He did mention bullpen too, that is certainly legit. And they do need a bat, but that should come internally sometime soon. But man, saying backend starter and utility infielder is tough.

 

I didn't want this to be a criticism of Cameron per se, very difficult to keep close tabs on 30 teams, but like I also posted, does provide some illumination on how these articles are written and what type of context they are written in. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for quoting it more specifically, I was going by memory, not right after listening. What I remember is him saying significant at bats to guys that aren't getting them anymore, no mention of players that have been called up or will soon be called up, and the names he mentioned to acquire made no sense. Acquiring a utility guy makes even less sense. Bullpen guy sure.

 

I like Cameron, I certainly think he is one of the best national writers, but it was illuminating to see that sausage made a little bit.

The only guy he mentioned that's not getting at-bats anymore was Schafer, whose at-bats have gone to Hicks (71 OPS+).

 

Hicks is also the only notable guy that's been called up recently.

 

And I don't think there are any impact guys on the horizon for call-ups soon on either side of the ball (Arcia hopefully activated soon, but he has yet to look like an impact player in MLB, particular if we still play him in the field regularly).  I don't think we can count on any of the AA guys coming up soon, much less having a major impact out of the gate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He did mention bullpen too, that is certainly legit. And they do need a bat, but that should come internally sometime soon. But man, saying backend starter and utility infielder is tough.

You keep dwelling on the 5th starter thing, when I think Cameron should get a pass if he simply did not remember the Ervin Santana situation (who wasn't mentioned at all).  If Santana wasn't coming back in July, SP depth instantly becomes much more of a concern.

 

The names he mentioned (i.e. Mike Leake) were actually speculation on guys he thought TR might be able to acquire, NOT guys he was endorsing.  And he was VERY clear that acquiring a pitcher was pointless if they didn't acquire a starting bat (or multiple bats) to go with it.

 

And the utility suggestion was very off-hand, but looking at our awful SS situation right now, getting another guy for the stretch run that could potentially start there and not embarrass us might not be crazy -- shades of Orlando Cabrera 2009.

[drjim]

 

The only guy he mentioned that's not getting at-bats anymore was Schafer, whose at-bats have gone to Hicks (71 OPS+).

 

Hicks is also the only notable guy that's been called up recently.

 

And I don't think there are any impact guys on the horizon for call-ups soon on either side of the ball (Arcia hopefully activated soon, but he has yet to look like an impact player in MLB, particular if we still play him in the field regularly).  I don't think we can count on any of the AA guys coming up soon, much less having a major impact out of the gate.

 

I would say Santana, Meyer out of the pen, and any of the three young DHs emerging again could be considered upgrades. And at the three weakest points other than SS.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would say Santana, Meyer out of the pen, and any of the three young DHs emerging again could be considered upgrades. And at the three weakest points other than SS.

 

I'd argue CF and C are pretty good sized weaknesses also, and I don't see any way Meyer comes up as a RP. They'll move him back to starting in AAA once he settles down. I don't agree with that, but I predict it.

[drjim]

 

I'd argue CF and C are pretty good sized weaknesses also, and I don't see any way Meyer comes up as a RP. They'll move him back to starting in AAA once he settles down. I don't agree with that, but I predict it.

 

Good point. I don't see Suzuki as bad relative to our bullpen and DH and I am probably too optimistic with Hicks. And Buxton could make it up.

 

Meyer is slightly more than 50/50 to be in the bullpen.