What is your timeline?

[kellyvance]

Earl Weaver's recipe for success in Ballamore was "Pitching, Defense, and the Three Run Homer"

I think he listed them in their order of importance to his team. But that is not to say that he couldn't have won with a different sort of team.

 

The thing is, pitching comes first. Ask any coach on their way to the draft at any level. They are looking for pitching. It is 1/2 of the game.

 

The Twins are gonna spend 100 to 125 Mil on a roster, they may as well pay a lot of that to pitchers who can control 1/2 of perhaps 60 games. Pitching is a good platform to build a team around. That is why great pitching is so rare. But it is a difference maker. 

 

Defense was also mentioned before hitting. Earl's view doesn't mean he didn't prize hitting. I mean, he had Frank and Brooks Robinson to go with Boog. But he also had two great outfielders in Buford and Blair. And a great defense. You wonder how the Birds had 4 twenty game winners? Well first of all a four man rotation and great defense played parts.I mean, Belanger and Dave Johnson and Brooks in an infield? Get outtatown.

 

(INSERT LOUD SIGH HERE)

 

The Twins pitching is suspect

 

and has been since the days of Santana and Liriano. Lets be honest. That is the Twins' last dominant tandem in a long time. Both had dominant stuff. And you need that kinda stuff to go deep in the playoffs. Two shutouts to start a series always works. 

 

The defense is weak.

 

The three run homer?  What is that?

 

 

[kellyvance]

Never mind, Dozier just hit one, so now we know

[USAFChief]

 

You're being difficult. I've explained why timelines are hard to gauge because prospects face setbacks.

 

Where would the Twins be right now if Meyer, Sano, and Buxton didn't suffer injuries and were playing baseball in Minnesota? They're basically this year's version of the 2014 Astros if that happens.

 

Unfortunately, none of those things happened and it's no one's fault. Which makes any set timeline essentially moot. Terry Ryan didn't do anything wrong with those prospects - though you can make an argument that Meyer should maybe be here today - and things just played out unfavorably for the Twins. If a timeline was set up to gauge his performance, he would have missed goals... And failing someone for missing a goal that was largely outside their control is a bad way to run a business.

That prospects are hard to gauge, and face setbacks, should be part of the timeline.

 

You can't set up a plan that relies on a series of unlikely events to line up perfectly to suceed, and then write it off as "no one's fault" when those events don't line up.  

 

There are other methods of assembling winning talent than "wait through a half decade of suckage to get enough top picks to eventually emerge in another half decade."

[h2oface]

 

The two best players in the system are shaking off rust from missing a lot of baseball last year.

 

That's not terribly interesting, it's kinda expected. Disappointing, yes, but not surprising or interesting.

 

Well, I find it surprising, and interesting, because I expected them to be rust resistant, as long as you want to use that rust metaphor. The greats are rust resistant. Both prospects are heralded by all of and around baseball to be future all stars, and to be great. Matt Harvey got all cut up and sat out a year.......... and comes back with very little if any rust at the highest level of baseball. So that is my opinion and I am sticking with it.

[USMCTwin]

 

Well, I find it surprising, and interesting, because I expected them to be rust resistant, as long as you want to use that rust metaphor. The greats are rust resistant. Both prospects are heralded by all of and around baseball to be future all stars, and to be great. Matt Harvey got all cut up and sat out a year.......... and comes back with very little if any rust at the highest level of baseball. So that is my opinion and I am sticking with it.

 

Just a quick search of HOF'ers who were by your standards not great.

 

John Smoltz (Missed entire 2000 season) @ End of July 2001 - 30 IP, 35 H, 4 HR, 23 K, ERA 4.8

 

Pedro Martinez (Missed month of July and all but one start in August of 2001) Next 10 starts - 51.2 IP, 42 H, 3 HR, 55K, ERA 3.55

 

Frank Thomas (Missed all of 2001 except for April)  @ End of April 2002 with 26 games played - 96 AB, 26 H, 4 HR, 19 SO, .271 BA, .371 OBP, .479 SLG, .850 OPS (Career .301 BA, .419 OBP, .555 SLG, .974 OPS)

 

Ken Griffey JR (Missed June-1/2 August of 1995) @ End of 31 games of returning - 108 AB, 24 H, 5 HR, 25 BB, 31 SO, .222 BA, .366 OBP, .370 SLG, .736 OPS (Career .284 BA, .370 OBP, .538 SLG, .907 OPS) 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just a quick search of HOF'ers who were by your standards not great.

 

John Smoltz (Missed entire 2000 season) @ End of July 2001 - 30 IP, 35 H, 4 HR, 23 K, ERA 4.8

 

Pedro Martinez (Missed month of July and all but one start in August of 2001) Next 10 starts - 51.2 IP, 42 H, 3 HR, 55K, ERA 3.55

 

Frank Thomas (Missed all of 2001 except for April) @ End of April 2002 with 26 games played - 96 AB, 26 H, 4 HR, 19 SO, .271 BA, .371 OBP, .479 SLG, .850 OPS (Career .301 BA, .419 OBP, .555 SLG, .974 OPS)

 

Ken Griffey JR (Missed June-1/2 August of 1995) @ End of 31 games of returning - 108 AB, 24 H, 5 HR, 25 BB, 31 SO, .222 BA, .366 OBP, .370 SLG, .736 OPS (Career .284 BA, .370 OBP, .538 SLG, .907 OPS)

Thank you or researching what I was too lazy to research. Most players gain rust during time off. That's why Spring Training exists, after all. Healthy players need to get back into the flow of the game. Injured players even more so.

[Mike Sixel]

I now think I should have asked this differently, and asked what the timeline was going forward, rather than rehashing the last 2 years or so again.....live and learn.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My goal for this season would be for Sano, Buxton, and Meyer to get extended looks before September. Hopefully they play well enough to warrant those promotions.

 

Past that, I can't say. It depends on how they play, specifically Sano at third.

[Secondary User]

 

Talk about missing the point much?

 

Going for it brings the risk of failure, or success. These guys are risk adverse, so they never really have a shot at anything spectacular. 

 

Tin Cup went for it ten times. He finally holed the ball...

 

Even if you go for it, you might only win once in ten. But that tenth time is awesome. 

 

Very late to the discussion, I know, but as to the Tin Cup reference:

 

His 9 failures before hand hampered him so much that his one success didn't matter.  He holed out, yes, but was his goal to hole out?  No, it was to win the tournament.

[mickeymental]

twins management deserves some credit for putting together a pretty good homegrown infield, especially if danny santana settles in at ss.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just a quick search of HOF'ers who were by your standards not great.

Uh, not quite.

 

Thomas and Martinez were performing at roughly 125 OPS+/ERA+ levels during the periods you referenced.  Maybe they weren't at 100% but those kinds of performances over small samples are not unexpected for even healthy great players.

 

Smoltz and Griffey were a little worse, but close to league average performers during the periods you referenced.  Again, not that unexpected over a small sample.  Plus Griffey had just come back from his injury during a pennant race, so he was likely still hurt rather than simply "rusty".  Smoltz likewise was probably still hurting some, as he had already begun shifting from starting to the bullpen.

 

I think "rust" after a layoff is a valid observation, but these are not good examples of evidence to support it.

[h2oface]

 

Uh, not quite.

 

Thomas and Martinez were performing at roughly 125 OPS+/ERA+ levels during the periods you referenced.  Maybe they weren't at 100% but those kinds of performances over small samples are not unexpected for even healthy great players.

 

Smoltz and Griffey were a little worse, but close to league average performers during the periods you referenced.  Again, not that unexpected over a small sample.  Plus Griffey had just come back from his injury during a pennant race, so he was likely still hurt rather than simply "rusty".  Smoltz likewise was probably still hurting some, as he had already begun shifting from starting to the bullpen.

 

I think "rust" after a layoff is a valid observation, but these are not good examples of evidence to support it.

You took the words right out of my mouth as I read the line on Martinez and Thomas, and I am sure there are more players that could be dug up for each case, if one worked on it hard enough. More than anything, I was asserting my right to have an opinion on what I find interesting, and not being told that it isn't. While it is not unusual for players to have rust (how about the Twins' experience with Kendrys Morales last year), I really didn't expect rust from these two. Sano was even wanting to comeback at the end of last year, and Buxton is such a "hard worker"........ they both are it is reported...... that I figured they would be prepared and ready to get on with it, at least at levels like Thomas and Martinez, in relation to how they had previously performed and subsequently performed. Rust resistant is not the same as rust proof, and I would say the cases presented (especially Martinez and Thomas) support my statement that was said off the cuff with no research. Harvey... the original example, has been better, too, but is still better than most in his first month back and after a spring training.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/matt-harvey-ends-spring-training-scoreless-innings-article-1.2171245

 

Buxton seems to be coming around, and Sano had a better day yesterday. That is what we all hope for anyway.

[old nurse]

 

As the owner, would you not tell the FO, "you have x years to get us to contention", or would you just let it happen whenever it happens?

The Pohlads are into making money. Historically in this town, contention keeps people tuned in, it kind of takes some form of a title to get the fans coming..

Gosh, I am suddenly rich beyond reason. Thanls, Mike.

The question becomes is my player development continually advancing. Is the development leading to product on the field people can watch. Why the setbacks.

Gunathor pointed out how long down cycles can be What was failed to mention was how short the up cycle was for some of these teams. My concern is not as much getting to the up cycle as figuring out how to also stay there, If it is you have X years to get a team in the playoffs or else, more  than likely the  GM will go into win now mode and you will sww a couple year wingow of being good and then the team falls apart.  Everybody gets fired, New people know they only have X years and the cycle continues. At the same time you do not want to fallinto the Cleveland trap. Cleveland won under Hart. Yearly. Shapiro has beeb there for about 15 years. wins enough every few years.

 

 

[Linus]

Call me an optimist but I think the worm is starting to turn.  Ive said all along that I believe that the twins will be about 500 this year. Their prospects are playing better and younger players are being worked in. I really hope Tonkin and Pressley grab their chance.

 

If Gibson and may continue to pitch well and then you add e Santana to the mix you have a pretty good rotation with some depth.

[stringer bell]

I predicted 85 wins this year.  That prediction looked pretty ridiculous after seven games, but since the team has played much better.  There are obvious flaws, but some solutions may be available in Rochester and Chattanooga.  The biggest reason the Twins have lost so many games in the last four years is starting pitching.  I am not going to say the problem is fixed, but when was the last time the Twins optioned a starter with a winning record and a mid-4s ERA? 

 

The lineup will get better.  Not one regular is hitting above career norms.  That will change.  The bullpen is already transitioning.  I question whether Stauffer will ever pitch for the Twins again, Tonkin and Pressly have chances to establish themselves right now and there are still more pitchers that deserve a chance at Rochester. 

 

There aren't any easy touches in the American League or the NL Central.  The Twins will have to improve as the season rolls along and add impact players from their farm system and perhaps from outside in order to have a winning season.  Injuries will probably decide whether this is a successful season, which sets the scene for true contention for the rest of the decade.

[ashbury]

  I am not going to say the problem is fixed, but when was the last time the Twins optioned a starter with a winning record and a mid-4s ERA?

They're just copying the A's who did a similar thing with some pitcher whose ERA was 3.55.

[Brandon]

I am very confident in our front office.  I think outside the Stauffer signing we had a flawless offseason though I did want to see us sign Neshek again.  I did think Bloyer as a minor league signing was a good idea and he has rattled off 9.33 scoreless innings to bring his ERA down to an acceptable level.  I think the injuries derailed minor league development and the suspension hurts the value of the Santana signing.  but I do believe we have an 80-85 win team if the offense gets back moving again. 

 

Also I think TR was planning on having pitchers rotate in throughout the year and begin to establish themselves both in the rotation and bullpen so that by the end of the season we would have traded for more prospects and developed some young pitchers in the majors much like they did on offense last year. 

 

We have soo many prospects that they cant all possibly make our team in the future.  so with that it will be pretty hard not to be at least competitive. 

[gil4]

 

I'm imagining the contracts for building the new Vikings stadium not having any timelines. Lol not gonna fly

I'm not sure that's a good comp.  If your best hammer guy on the crew hurts his elbow there's another one available that's 99% as good for the same price, with maybe a week of development time needed.

[old nurse]

 

Well, I find it surprising, and interesting, because I expected them to be rust resistant, as long as you want to use that rust metaphor. The greats are rust resistant. Both prospects are heralded by all of and around baseball to be future all stars, and to be great. Matt Harvey got all cut up and sat out a year.......... and comes back with very little if any rust at the highest level of baseball. So that is my opinion and I am sticking with it.

Bryce Harper was on the dl for 2 months. His first 2 weeks back he had an OPS of .499  Worse than the career OPS of Drew Butera. A little rusty is what you would call Bryce.