Article: WARNE: The Twins' Secret Extension Candidate

[Brandon Warne]

There’s a Minnesota Twins player who has quietly turned himself into one of the best players in the American League at his position, and it might be time the team takes notice financially.It’s not Joe Mauer, who is still signed to that hotly-contested deal through 2018. It isn’t Brian Dozier, who inked a four-year, $20 million extension just before the season started.

 

No, it’s third baseman Trevor Plouffe, whom many in Twins Territory regard as flyover country geographically speaking. But while most weren’t watching, Plouffe outperformed the following third basemen last year in wOBA (a Fangraphs metric that takes all hits and properly weighs them before scaling them to on-base percentage for ease of consumption):

 

Pablo Sandoval

Evan Longoria

David Freese

David Wright

Xander Bogaerts

Nick Castellanos

 

Now that’s a who’s who of third basemen in a couple of different respects. Of course, a number of those guys had down years, but it’s worth noting that with offense down league wide, Plouffe bucked that trend to have easily his finest big league season — finishing 11th among 24 ‘qualified’ third sackers. Plouffe batted .258/.328/.423, good for a .331 wOBA. For some context, the league-average AL third baseman batted .254/.314/.397, good for a .314 wOBA that places Plouffe a solid 5-ish percent above average.

 

It wasn’t just offensively where Plouffe made strides either, as defensive metrics ranked him somewhere between the third and fifth best fielder at third base in the AL last year. And even if defensive numbers leave you feeling confused — quite frankly, that’s probably appropriate — think about this: do you still find yourself catching your breath before each of his throws across the diamond? If that isn’t sign of improvement, nothing is.

 

So how did Plouffe reinvent himself?

 

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[troyhobbs]

Plouffe is good, the only reasons to hesitate before extending would be Sano and when the Twins will actually be competitive. Doesn't pay to buy high if they stink while he's in his prime. If the wheels fall off and the "rebuild" continues to lag I like him as trade bait too.

[RedBull34]

I could see Plouffe doing a Zobrist or Cuddyer impression, playing spot 1B, 3B, OF when necessary.

 

If (When?) Sano comes up, Plouffe would basically replace Hunter and Nunez, which has value.

[Boom Boom]

My guess is Sano is moved off 3B and Plouffe is signed to a new contract to play there another three years or so.

[Mill1634]

 

My guess is Sano is moved off 3B and Plouffe is signed to a new contract to play there another three years or so.

Sano can only DH or play 1st I think (and 3rd)

Edited April 28, 2015 by milldaddy35

[tobi0040]

We need clarity on Sano first. If Sano is our 3B Plouffe could play somewhere else and add value.  But it would hurt his overall value to the team.  So we should wait on signing him.  No need to right now.

[Brandon Warne]

 

We need clarity on Sano first. If Sano is our 3B Plouffe could play somewhere else and add value.  But it would hurt his overall value to the team.  So we should wait on signing him.  No need to right now.

 

There isn't going to be clarity on Sano for a few years. And that's the point; Plouffe is going to get really expensive in arbitration over the next two years. May as well cut into those costs if you can.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

While it is pretty clear that Sano will be the Twins third baseman at some point, it is not likely this year.  Ultimately Plouffe is either a trade chip or a super utility player for the club.  In many respects it is the development of other players like Arcia, Rosario and Vargas that have more of an impact on Plouffe's future.

 

I agree that he is a strong extension candidate - but don't agree that this means he is the Twins' third baseman beyond the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

If he really is one of the best defensive third basemen of the AL as the stats suggest, I think you move Sano off third. Just my two cents.

[Mike Sixel]

I would be ok with Sano in RF, and Plouffe at 3B. But, the Twins have shown no evidence they are even considering it, have they?

[tobi0040]

 

There isn't going to be clarity on Sano for a few years. And that's the point; Plouffe is going to get really expensive in arbitration over the next two years. May as well cut into those costs if you can.

 

Plouffe's offensive numbers represent a top 10 3B.  Throw him in LF and they no longer are in that grouping.  So the danger is you lock him up at 3B rates and then move him to LF. 

 

Basically the same thing we did with Mauer.  We paid an elite catcher to move to 1B and be average-ish.

[tobi0040]

 

While it is pretty clear that Sano will be the Twins third baseman at some point, it is not likely this year.  Ultimately Plouffe is either a trade chip or a super utility player for the club.  In many respects it is the development of other players like Arcia, Rosario and Vargas that have more of an impact on Plouffe's future.

 

I agree that he is a strong extension candidate - but don't agree that this means he is the Twins' third baseman beyond the foreseeable future.

 

I agree completely with this analysis and neither of these outcomes translates to we need to extend the guy now.  The last thing you want to do is give him 7-9M a year to be a super utility guy that only plays 120 games.

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, 7-9MM dollars is 1.5 wins for a guy that age........where do you propose finding a GOOD player to do that role? 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Plouffe's offensive numbers represent a top 10 3B.  Throw him in LF and they no longer are in that grouping.  So the danger is you lock him up at 3B rates and then move him to LF. 

 

Basically the same thing we did with Mauer.  We paid an elite catcher to move to 1B and be average-ish.

 

The gap is closer than you think. The MLB average wOBA for 3B last year was .316 and for LF was .318. And you can't equate moving someone off catcher to moving someone off third, because catcher aging curves and all that necessitate those sort of moves. If you were to move Plouffe off third to facilitate Sano, that would be of your own doing rather than being forced.

 

And nobody knows what kind of left fielder he could be. He could literally be Oswaldo Arcia, or Alex Gordon. But for now, he's a really good defensive third baseman. I'd tell the kid to play somewhere else.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Uh, 7-9MM dollars is 1.5 wins for a guy that age........where do you propose finding a GOOD player to do that role? 

 

If he has another year like last year, he's going to get $7 million in his penultimate arbitration year (this winter).

[Brandon Warne]

 

Uh, 7-9MM dollars is 1.5 wins for a guy that age........where do you propose finding a GOOD player to do that role? 

 

Well you draft, and develop, and after 11 years...oh.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

 

 

And nobody knows what kind of left fielder he could be. He could literally be Oswaldo Arcia, or Alex Gordon. But for now, he's a really good defensive third baseman. I'd tell the kid to play somewhere else.

 

 

 

He is a good 3rd baseman, but I have a hard time believing the Twins will or can convert Sano to any other position.  It is because of Sano's limited versatility as a fielder that Plouffe is eventually a trade candidate.  Unless, of course, Sano becomes the trade chip for that #1 starter that we all desperately want. 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Uh, 7-9MM dollars is 1.5 wins for a guy that age........where do you propose finding a GOOD player to do that role? 

 

 

I live in a world where the Twins aren't paying super utility guy that kind of money.  And if they did it would take money away from another area

[Brandon Warne]

I wouldn't trade for a pitcher like really ever unless I thought I was getting a great deal. You still gotta pay 'em and the injury risk is just too high. 

 

Sano could play first or DH. The bat is easily good enough to stick at both. I'm not worried about him and Plouffe on the same team, and I don't think anyone else should be either. I think there's an entire forest that is burning -- a simmering burn, but still -- and we're stuck here looking at two of the nicer trees thinking one has to go. 

 

That's just my take.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I live in a world where the Twins aren't paying super utility guy that kind of money.  And if they did it would take money away from another area

 

Did paying Kurt Suzuki that kind of money prevent them from signing anyone else? Or heck, did having Nolasco prevent them from signing anyone else? This is a narrative, and one I don't particularly believe in.

[tobi0040]

 

Did paying Kurt Suzuki that kind of money prevent them from signing anyone else? Or heck, did having Nolasco prevent them from signing anyone else? This is a narrative, and one I don't particularly believe in.

 

Do you think the Twins would give 25-30M over three years to a guy that doesn't play the same position every day?

 

I think the Rays would and I think it may make sense for the Twins if Plouffe can play LF and RF (in addition to 3B and 1B).  But I really don't think the Twins would ever do that.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you think the Twins would give 25-30M over three years to a guy that doesn't play the same position every day?

 

I think the Rays would and I think it may make sense for the Twins if Plouffe can play LF and RF (in addition to 3B and 1B).  But I really don't think the Twins would ever do that.

 

Which is how you end up with Bartlett, Kubel, Nunez, et. al. on your bench, instead of actual good MLB players......

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Chris Johnson was signed for $4.75m before getting $6m/$7.5m/$9m and $1m buyout for a $10m option. That bought out one year of free agency with an option on the second year.

 

Plouffe is currently signed for $4.8m in the same stage as Johnson and a very similar age. Any extension should probably come at nearly identical terms (3/$23.5m), though I'd be more likely to bet on a 2/$14 because I'm bitter about the lack of FA-years in Dozier's deal. But I digress.

 

While I wouldn't necessarily bang the drums to do this deal, it wouldn't be a bad deal and if he continues to improve... it could work out very nice for the team (whether you keep him or trade him), without being a huge cost if he completely bombs.

 

[Halsey Hall]

BOOOO on this article. 

[tobi0040]

 

Which is how you end up with Bartlett, Kubel, Nunez, et. al. on your bench, instead of actual good MLB players......

 

I think Plouffe would be a great super utility guy, for a few reasons.  Arcia is a comlplete liability against lefties, so you swap out his career .601 OPS for Plouffe's .807.  And Joe has missed about 170 games over the last four years.  And maybe Plouffe's ability to play almost every position in a pinch would allow us to add an actual bat on the bench.

 

Of course you weigh this with what you can get in a trade.

 

Edited April 28, 2015 by tobi0040

[Dantes929]

 

If he really is one of the best defensive third basemen of the AL as the stats suggest, I think you move Sano off third. Just my two cents.

I saw a routine ground ball go between the legs of last year's GG winner.   Not exactly Brook Robinson competition there.   I think I could win a GG but don't think my .0033 BA would play so well there.    I used to dislike Plouffe offensively and defensively but now like him for both so I give him a lot of credit.

[Mike Sixel]

If only there was evidence that you could win with great defense, decent hitting, and an elite bullpen.....and if only you could figure out which players might be really good defensively, and you valued that defense the same way (or maybe a discount, because it is harder to measure) you valued offense, and then you signed players based on that.......

Edited April 28, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Parker Hageman]

I am really impressed by his maturity as a hitter over the last several years. He has a very good understanding of how pitchers are approaching him which led to him going the other way more: 

 

“I know for me they like to show me [fastball] in and then go soft away,” Plouffe explained. “In those big situations where there’s runners on base, last year Bruno and I talked about using that whole field, just take what they give. When you get up there you are going to want to get those runs in no matter what, any way you can. If that means I gotta hit a groundball to second base or I gotta fly one out to right, that’s what I've got to do. Once I got the hang of that it was ‘alright, let’s drive some balls over there’. I think that makes you a more complete hitter.”

 

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/for-young-hitters-the-struggle-is-real-r3561

 

Plouffe was as lost as anybody early on in his career. If he can pull it together to be an average major leaguer hitter, there is hope for the other young hitters in this lineup can at least do the same. 

 

[tobi0040]

 

If only there was evidence that you could win with great defense, decent hitting, and an elite bullpen.....and if only you could figure out which players might be really good defensively, and you valued that defense the same way (or maybe a discount, because it is harder to measure) you valued offense, and then you signed players based on that.......

 

I think the Twins are a new GM away from quantifying the impact of defense to runs, then to wins.

[Willihammer]

I'd look at it, definitely. He seems to have turned a corner.

 

I don't know where people get this idea that he can play all over the field though.