Article: WARNE: The Twins' Secret Extension Candidate

[Boom Boom]

I'd look at it, definitely. He seems to have turned a corner.

 

I don't know where people get this idea that he can play all over the field though.

It comes from the assumption that Sano is a long term fit at third base, so if Plouffe is to stick around he will be forced off the position.

 

Again, the Twins are far more likely to move Sano if they are both around. If they're both in the lineup, why put them in the worse defensive alignment? It would be like playing Rondell White in left field while Jason Tyner is the DH.

[jokin]

 

BOOOO on this article. 

 

POOOF on this article.

[nytwinsfan]

 

If he really is one of the best defensive third basemen of the AL as the stats suggest, I think you move Sano off third. Just my two cents.

To where? DH? Why have two very good players capable of providing their maximum value at 3B on the same team (yes, assuming that continues to be the case for Sano)? Unless other teams are systematically undervaluing both of them, why not trade one of them? It doesn't make sense to keep them both, because one or the other is worth more to another team than to the Twins, and thus the Twins should be able to get back more in value than they are giving up, given that 3B is occupied.

 

I tend to think Plouffe is the one to trade, but I agree we should wait a bit longer to make sure Sano is fully capable of playing 3B after his arm injury. Even if Plouffe is the better defender than Sano, if Sano can play even an adequate 3B his hitting + positional value there probably makes him a more valuable third baseman.

[Shane Wahl]

And there is evidence that Plouffe is going to perform in 2015 like he did in 2014 somewhere? Where is that evidence? 

[spsdrock]

I have been to 4 games and watched the rest on TV and I keep saying plouffe will win a gold glove this year.  He is making great plays and doing great work over at third.  The only play i havent seen him turn was a weak grounder he tried to bare hand in a hurry.  One of the toughest plays a third baseman can make.  He has a been really great.  His bat is turning around now as well.

[Willihammer]

 

 

To where? DH? Why have two very good players capable of providing their maximum value at 3B on the same team (yes, assuming that continues to be the case for Sano)? Unless other teams are systematically undervaluing both of them, why not trade one of them? It doesn't make sense to keep them both, because one or the other is worth more to another team than to the Twins, and thus the Twins should be able to get back more in value than they are giving up, given that 3B is occupied.

 

I tend to think Plouffe is the one to trade, but I agree we should wait a bit longer to make sure Sano is fully capable of playing 3B after his arm injury. Even if Plouffe is the better defender than Sano, if Sano can play even an adequate 3B his hitting + positional value there probably makes him a more valuable third baseman.

I think this is a good point. The Twins have pounded a lot of square pegs into round holes defensively lately. Perhaps a better approach would be to trade for players who actually fit the position.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Willihammer

[nytwinsfan]

The following is (obviously) an overly simplistic hypothetical, and the numbers are speculative and probably off. The point is not to state "the truth" or "the fact of the matter," but to show my reasoning above in more concrete terms.  Feel free to challenge any assumptions or try your own hypothetical that better fits your assumptions. But the following is why I think the Twins would probably be best off trading Sano (or more likely, assuming Sano can stay at 3B) Plouffe. 

 

Sano (at 3B):
-0.5 Defensive WAR
4 Offensive WAR
.5 Positional WAR
Total 4 WAR

 

Sano (at DH)
O Defensive WAR
4 Offensive WAR
-1 Positional WAR
Total 3 WAR

 

Plouffe (at 3B):
1.5  Defensive WAR
1.5  Offensive WAR
.5   Positional WAR
Total 3.5 WAR

 

Plouffe (at Corner OF):
.5   Defensive WAR
1.5 Offensive WAR
0   Positional WAR
Total 2  WAR

 

In other words Sano and Plouffe are both worth more at 3B than at their second-best position.  This is their “opportunity cost” of playing 3B.  Say the Twins have someone who is providing only 1 WAR in a corner outfield spot (say, I don’t know Arcia or Hunter) or 2 WAR at DH (I don’t know, say Vargas). Why not trade Plouffe for a 2.5 WAR corner outfielder or Sano for a 3.5 WAR DH (more likely the former)?  Some team out there probably will get enough marginal value out of Sano or Plouffe at 3B to make that trade worthwhile.* Everyone wins. The 1.5 WAR upgrade for the Twins provides more value than putting Plouffe in a corner outfield position or Sano at DH.

 

* All it would take for the Plouffe trade scenario to make sense for that team is for that team to have a back-up corner outfielder worth 2 WAR and a starting 3B worth only 2.5 WAR or a back-up corner outfielder worth 1.5 WAR and a starting 3B worth only 2 WAR.

Edited April 28, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Jeremy Nygaard]

From a payroll perspective - just for fun - if you take off the five pending free agents and add the three guys who will be out of options next year (Hicks, Pinto, Tonkin), give all the players their raises (even guys that should be non-tendered), next year's payroll will be under $98m. 

 

That includes $5m to the trio of Robinson, Schafer and Nunez and nearly $4m to Milone. 

 

That also includes players making more than $507,500 in spots of Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, etc who will be making the minimum.

 

Long story short, forecasting the payroll looks really good for at least the next three years - which is the window of the extension in question.

[tobi0040]

 

The following is (obviously) hypothetical, and the numbers are wildly speculative and probably far off. The point is not to state "the truth" or "the fact of the matter," but to show my reasoning above in more concrete terms.  Feel free to challenge any assumptions or try your own hypothetical that better fits your assumptions. But the following is why I think the Twins would probably be best off trading Sano (or more likely, assuming Sano can stay at 3B) Plouffe. 

 

Sano (at 3B):
-0.5 Defensive WAR
4 Offensive WAR
.5 Positional WAR
Total 4 WAR

 

Sano (at DH)
O Defensive WAR
4 Offensive WAR
-1 Positional WAR
Total 3 WAR

 

Plouffe (at 3B):
1.5  Defensive WAR
1.5  Offensive WAR
.5   Positional WAR
Total 3.5 WAR

 

Plouffe (at Corner OF):
.5   Defensive WAR
1.5 Offensive WAR
0   Positional WAR
Total 2  WAR

 

In other words Sano and Plouffe are both worth more at 3B than at their second-best position.  This is their “opportunity cost” of playing 3B.  Say the Twins have someone who is providing only 1 WAR in a corner outfield spot (say, I don’t know Arcia or Hunter) or 2 WAR at DH (I don’t know, say Vargas). Why not trade Plouffe for a 2.5 WAR corner outfielder or Sano for a 3.5 WAR DH (more likely the former)?  Some team out there probably will get enough marginal value out of Sano or Plouffe at 3B to make that trade worthwhile. Everyone wins. The 1.5 WAR upgrade for the Twins provides more value than putting Plouffe in a corner outfield position or Sano at DH.

 

If Sano sticks at 3B, I think a trade of Plouffe is what will happen.  Because of the value they provide at 3B (which you outline).

 

The main reason why I think it will be Plouffe that is moved is age and cost.  Sano is 22 and he will likely be a productive MLB player all the way through his 5-6 years of control.   We could have him before and through his prime.  Plouffe is 29 soon.  And Plouffe is probably one of the 7-10 best 3B in his prime.  Many project Sano as a top 3 or so, with the bat.

 

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

If Sano sticks at 3B, I think a trade of Plouffe is what will happen.  Because of the value they provide at 3B (which you outline).

 

The main reason why I think it will be Plouffe that is moved is age and cost.  Sano is 22 and he will likely be a productive MLB player all the way through his 5-6 years of control.   We could have him before and through his prime.  Plouffe is 29 soon.  And Plouffe is probably one of the 7-10 best 3B in his prime.  Many project Sano as a top 3 or so, with the bat.

Also good points. All of that being said, I'm not against extending Plouffe if the price is reasonable and would still enable the Twins to trade him for good value.

[tobi0040]

 

Also good points. All of that being said, I'm not against extending Plouffe if the price is reasonable and would still enable the Twins to trade him for good value.

 

But the flip side is.  Plouffe had a good year last year.  And about a good 40-50 day streak in 2012.  You hand him a 3-4 year deal and he doesn't put up another year like last year and he may not be as easy to move or valuable as we think.  If you look around we have a few poor contracts already, I think you wait. 

[Shane Wahl]

I will be disappointed if the Twins don't trade him by August 1st this year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would be ok with Sano in RF, and Plouffe at 3B. But, the Twins have shown no evidence they are even considering it, have they?

 

I'm confused as someone who generally agrees with you about outfield defense, why you are so comfortable just tossing a career infielder into RF and assuming it will work out.

 

Plouffe's done a lot of great things.  If we're ready to get Sano up, there is another young beast he could replace and Plouffe could stay right where he is.  Or, we could give Sano a chance to keep refining his game and worry about 3B when he forces his hand.

[Mike Sixel]

That would be based on putting Sano out there in the minors and seeing what he can do. Frankly, I have my doubts he can stick at 3B long term, but think it is possible he could in RF.

 

Frankly, I have my doubts about Plouffe maintaining last year, but I think it is 50/50, so I would consider seeing if Sano can play RF, since, I think Plouffe might be a legit 3B.

 

I have zero interest in Sano at DH anytime soon.

[TheLeviathan]

 

That would be based on putting Sano out there in the minors and seeing what he can do. Frankly, I have my doubts he can stick at 3B long term, but think it is possible he could in RF.

 

Frankly, I have my doubts about Plouffe maintaining last year, but I think it is 50/50, so I would consider seeing if Sano can play RF, since, I think Plouffe might be a legit 3B.

 

I have zero interest in Sano at DH anytime soon.

 

It's possible he could stick either place, moving him out of fear Plouffe might be a good player seems like exactly the kind of poor thinking that has plagued this team.

[Willihammer]

Wait til Sano reaches the majors, then get creative with playing out of position. #Twinsbaseball

[Mike Sixel]

How is it fear? Plouffe isn't old, he's not expensive, he has progressed while in the majors......isn't that the kind of guy to keep around and build around (rather, than say, guys in their 30s that aren't good)?

 

I'd rather Sano stick at 3B, and Plouffe be Zobrist lite.......but I'd be OK with them trying Sano in RF. OK does not mean it is my plan, my preference, nothing more than I'd be ok with them if they tried it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Wait til Sano reaches the majors, then get creative with playing out of position. #Twinsbaseball

 

We have a DH spot manned by a guy with a sub .600 OPS.  I'm not going to worry about things if Sano's bat forces the issue.  But if Sano can play third, then I trade Plouffe, not extend him.

 

But the notion you can just toss any dude out in RF and it'll be "ok" is one I couldn't disagree with more. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Did paying Kurt Suzuki that kind of money prevent them from signing anyone else? Or heck, did having Nolasco prevent them from signing anyone else? This is a narrative, and one I don't particularly believe in.

Any one of those contracts obviously doesn't preclude other signings, but the sum total of market-value  (or worse) contracts for average-ish players certainly depletes that resource.  The Twins are already at or near their commonly assumed payroll limit for the next 2-3 years.  I pretty much guarantee the Twins won't be making any significant FA additions over the next couple offseasons even if they wanted to, thanks to the money already committed to average-ish players.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Any one of those contracts obviously doesn't preclude other signings, but the sum total of market-value  (or worse) contracts for average-ish players certainly depletes that resource.  The Twins are already at or near their commonly assumed payroll limit for the next 2-3 years.  I pretty much guarantee the Twins won't be making any significant FA additions over the next couple offseasons even if they wanted to, thanks to the money already committed to average-ish players.

 

You didn't read my earlier post. I'd expect them to have as much as $25m next year to play with...

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'd look at it, definitely. He seems to have turned a corner.

 

I don't know where people get this idea that he can play all over the field though.

 

Well, they saw Cuddyer do it. Kind of.

[Brandon Warne]

 

And there is evidence that Plouffe is going to perform in 2015 like he did in 2014 somewhere? Where is that evidence? 

 

It's late April. Take a pill.

[Halsey Hall]

 

I have been to 4 games and watched the rest on TV and I keep saying plouffe will win a gold glove this year.  He is making great plays and doing great work over at third.  The only play i havent seen him turn was a weak grounder he tried to bare hand in a hurry.  One of the toughest plays a third baseman can make.  He has a been really great.  His bat is turning around now as well.

Poof is afraid of the ball.  He plays everything he can off to one side or the other.  And he's very slow afoot.  That is obvious to anyone who watches the games.  And his arm is very erratic.  Last night half his throws to first were right on and the other half Mauer had to stretch for up the line or out in front.  His bat is either hot or cold, mostly cold.  An extension to Poof would be the worst move the Twin have made since trading Larry Hisle. 

[tobi0040]

 

You didn't read my earlier post. I'd expect them to have as much as $25m next year to play with...

 

Having the money and extending Plouffe are two separate things though.  Just because we have the money does not mean that it is the best decision for the Twins.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Poof is afraid of the ball.  He plays everything he can off to one side or the other.  And he's very slow afoot.  That is obvious to anyone who watches the games.  And his arm is very erratic.  Last night half his throws to first were right on and the other half Mauer had to stretch for up the line or out in front.  His bat is either hot or cold, mostly cold.  An extension to Poof would be the worst move the Twin have made since trading Larry Hisle. 

 

Like virtually none of this is rooted in facts, or things that are particularly important.

[Halsey Hall]

What?  Watch him.  That's all the facts you need.  Just watch him. 

[Shane Wahl]

 

It's late April. Take a pill.

 

Um, you are the one claiming he is "one of the best at his position" and a real extension candidate.

[Brandon Warne]

OK, so here's the deal with a potential Plouffe extension:

 

I understand why people would like to wait out the remaining two years he has in arbitration. I get that. But as a super-two, he's going to get pretty expensive even as a decent third baseman over those two years.

 

IF you wait them out and still want to sign him after that, you will then be forced to sign him to a market-level deal, which assuming he has played well will be about four years and maybe $10m AAV. 

 

Or, you can split the difference, take him until he's about 32, and play your cards after that. But if you wait it out and then want to sign him, you're not only signing him at market value, but until he's in his mid-30s. 

 

A four-year deal under $30 million carries basically no risk for the Twins here, unless he were to absolutely fall off a cliff. But if you're forecasting that, well, you know more than the team does.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Um, you are the one claiming he is "one of the best at his position" and a real extension candidate.

 

Right. And he was very good last year, and has played better lately after a tough start. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

What?  Watch him.  That's all the facts you need.  Just watch him. 

 

I get that luxury quite frequently, thank you.