Article: 2015 Projections and Rankings: Brian Dozier

[Seth Stohs]

We’ve discussed Kurt Suzuki, Joe Mauer and the AL Central catchers and first basemen. Today, we continue to work our way around the infield with a look at Brian Dozier and the AL Central second basemen.

 

As the week goes on, we continue through this series, reviewing the Twins roster. We’ll make some projections and compare the Twins players to the rest of the American League Central.MINNESOTA TWINS – BRIAN DOZIER

 

Brian Dozier had a breakout season in 2014. After a frustrating debut in 2012, he struggled early in 2013 before a strong second half. In 2014, he became a more patient hitter and continued to show power. In fact, he was selected by Jose Bautista to represent the Twins and the American League in the All-Star Home Run Derby at Target Field in July.

 

His ability to get on base, hit for power, steal bases and play very good defense - as well as his development as a team leader - made him a candidate for a contract extension. Last week, he was rewarded with a four year, $20 million contract.

 

It will be interesting to see if Dozier is able to increase his batting average in 2015 without it affecting his on-base skills or slugging percentage. Can he take another step forward in 2015? What do you think? What are we projecting from Brian Dozier’s 2015 season?

 

The projections of our Twins Daily writers:

 

Seth – .277/.365/.457 (.822) with 43 doubles and 20 HR

Nick – .260/.350/.420 (.770) with 35 doubles and 15 HR

Parker –

John – .260/.330/.410 (740) with 35 doubles and 20 HR

 

AL CENTRAL SECOND BASEMEN

 

Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics

 

Chicago – Micah Johnson – 24 - .294/.351/.403 (.754) with 19 doubles, 5-HR (AA/AAA)

Cleveland – Jason Kipnis – 28 - .240/.310/.330 (.640) with 25 doubles, 6-HR

Detroit – Ian Kinsler – 33 - .275/.307/.420 (.727) with 40 doubles, 17-HR

Kansas City – Omar Infante – 33 - .252/.295/.337 (.632) with 21 doubles, 6-HR

 

AL CENTRAL SECOND BASEMAN RANKINGS

 

#1 – Ian Kinsler - Detroit

#2 – Brian Dozier - Minnesota

#3 – Jason Kipnis – Cleveland

#4 – Omar Infante – Kansas City

#5 – Micah Johnson - Chicago

 

NOW IT’S YOUR TURN

 

Give it some thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Brian Dozier in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central second basemen? Of course, then discuss with the rest of the Twins Daily community. Finally, check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions.

 

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[troyhobbs]

.255 20HR. The power seems to be legit and the glove is slick. He may be #1 though hard to argue with Kinsler

[Shane Wahl]

.258/.344/.420 (.764) with 33 doubles and 19 homers.

[halfchest]

.250/.350/.420  18 HR, 38 2B with good defense and he'll be the best 2B in the division.  Betting Kinsler continues to drop off a bit at age 33.  Kipnis and Dozier will be one and two if I had to bet on anything.  

 

 I don't really expect him to increase his BA or anything really but to hold steady overall with his 2014 numbers.  

[the_youngster]

.278/.342/.462 with 38 doubles and 18 home runs. I have always had an affinity for second basemen, and Dozier has become one of my favorites (along with Kinsler and Neil Walker). I would rank the AL central second basemen the same as in the article, but only for the start of the year. By season's end, I fully believe Dozier will surpass Kinsler, and likely all other second basemen not named Cano. But who knows? Maybe Dozier ends up batting .300 with 20+ home runs and becoming an offensive mainstay for many years (Or at least I hope so). But these are my realistic predictions.

[DocBauer]

Been a fan and believer for some time. 

 

He will blow a tough play once in a while. No crime there. In fact, more time at 2B might eliminate some of those. Really, really love his defense. Passes the "eye test" for what that is worth.

 

I still don't think we've seen the best of Dozier offensively. 

 

Power will stay...speed for another couple of seasons...and there will be another couple 20/20 seasons come. But what you will see is a raise in BA as he sees and grows. 

 

Figure .260-.270 while keeping that .350 plus OB% along with the doubles, and the consistent 20/20 potential. This guys is one of the  top 2B in all of baseball folks. Enjoy him.

[stringer bell]

Stolen base numbers for Dozier will drop off this year, mostly because of where he will hit in the lineup.  After watching him hit in the spring, I think the extra-base hits will slightly increase, but more doubles.

 

40 doubles, 12 steals, 15 homers.  .267 BA.  .335/444/.778  

 

Best in the division.

[Halsey Hall]

Best in the division.  Breakout last year and better this season. 

 

.274 ave, 345/440/750 with 22 hr's and 38 doubles. 

 

The bright spot for this team. 

[jimmer]

I think Dozier is the best 2B in the division.

[Jerr]

After signing his new contract, he will establish himself as the American League's #1 second baseman. He will improve all of his last years stats by about 10%.

Too lazy, to crunch those #'s

He is the Twins 'bright spot"!

[Thrylos]

.250/.320/.400

[Seth Stohs]

 

Stolen base numbers for Dozier will drop off this year, mostly because of where he will hit in the lineup.  

 

Might be the best (only?) reason to continue to bat Dozier 2nd and Mauer 3rd... Mauer's patience at the plate allows Santana and Dozier to steal more bases.

[mikelink45]

250 with 18 home runs - stolen bases might go up because I expect that Molitor will want the running game to be more aggressive.  ESPN has him #6 overall second baseman, I would put him on top of this list. 

[stringer bell]

On Dozier's SBs--I don't know if I can look it up, but most came early in the year when he hit leadoff.  He ran considerably less when hitting in front of Mauer (perhaps to give him the 2b-1b hole?) and IIRC many of his steals from the #2 spot were double steals with Santana. 

 

Just checked BBRef, and he stole 13 bases when batting leadoff, only 7 batting second in 81 games.

[Loosey]

Based on the fact he has not hit .250 for an entire season yet, I am not on board with him hitting almost .280 like Seth.  However, I would like to see (and think it can be attained) a slash line of .263/.350/.445 with 38 doubles and 22 HRs.  Getting that out of a 2nd baseman will be phenomenal especially if he continues to steal bases and play good defense.  I think these are fair expectations if you if you take into consideration the his career trajectory so far in his 1st three seasons coupled with his new contract.  Marginal improvements year to year will be fantasic.

[jimmer]

I'll go .250/.345/.420. wRC+ 115.

 

And his defense continuing to improve as he gets more and more comfy with the position.

[Paul Pleiss]

I think all of the TD writers are smoking a little some of that wacky-tabackey. Dozier will not hit .260+ I think the rest of the slash line are consistent with what we should expect, but I don't think he'll get the average up unless he sacrifices considerable power. I hope 2015 is great for Dozier... but I'm worried it will be the beginning of the decline.

[GoGonzoJournal]

Zips - .244/.321/.399, 30 2B, 17 HR, 86 R, 67 RBI in 147 games

Steamer - .241/.319/.384, 29 2B, 16 HR, 76 R, 64 RBI in 145 games

 

The TD crew is certainly optimistic.

[USAFChief]

.258/.348/.425 .773 OPS. Fewer steals, good defense, 155 games (I hope)

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

#1 – Brian Dozier - Minnesota

#2 – Jason Kipnis – Cleveland

#3 – Ian Kinsler - Detroit

#4 – Micah Johnson - Chicago

#5 – Omar Infante – Kansas City

 

I'd have them ranked this way. I think Dozier will probably be 3rd or 4th in Batting Average; but I think he'll be #1 in OBP, #1 in runs scored and play better defense and steal more bases than at least three of those guys. I think Kinsler is going to decline this year, and I think Kipnis will have a better year than last year.

[Hrbowski]

.320/.399/.491 (.890) with 33 doubles and 12 home runs.