Reusse on Arcia

[gunnarthor]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/297601151.html

 

Reusse brings up some questions about Arcia -

 

"Molitor hasn’t flat-out said it, and General Manager Terry Ryan hasn’t flat-out said it, but others have: The persistence of wasted at-bats and poor play in the outfield have made Arcia a sizable disappointment this spring.

Excuses can be made that Arcia had a stomach problem for a week, and that he has been flipped from right field to left, but the fact is, there has been no more consistency, no more maturity in Ozzie’s game, than when he batted .231 with 127 strikeouts in 372 at-bats last season.

 

As a 21-year-old, he had a stroke to the ball that was short, quick, powerful, wonderful, and then he hit some bombs at Target Field, and heard the cheers, and enjoyed the journeys around the bases, and now he has this long swing with a wild finish, and he’s often futile against lefties, and what has to be done for Ozzie to be the standout hitter that most everyone thought he would become?"

 

And he even suggests that the Twins could go with Rosario over Arcia in left field.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Hmm..... The bit about Molitor acknowledging that Arcia may be in a competition for his job in left field got my attention.

 

Also, the implication that Hicks could be traded if he doesn't make the 25-Man roster. That seems short-sighted and very unlikely given the Twins' lack of CF'ers in the upper minors.

 

Sure, Buxton is on his way, but just logistically speaking you still need to have someone play in Center at every level...

 

I wouldn't advocate trading Hicks to keep Robinson, for instance.

 

Having Arcia start the year in AAA with Rosario in LF for the Twins would be pretty gutsy and unlike the Twins as well.

[scottz]

Ugh. And Reusse LOVES Arcia, so if he is writing this, I assume Ozzie has been pretty bad. Come on, Ozzie.

[jokin]

Pretty comprehensive piece from Reusse, his take on the Pen going north:

 

 

And there are decisions to be made for a seven-man bullpen, although the guess here is that givens Glen Perkins, Casey Fien and Brian Duensing will be joined by four righthanders: Blaine Boyer, Tim Stauffer, J.R. Graham and Pelfrey.

 

[adorduan]

I would argue that Hicks hasn't been "fine down here", but the stuff about Arcia is pretty spot on.

[gunnarthor]

I think the Hicks trade is because, if he doesn't make it to the majors, the team would probably have to clear room on the 40 man roster for a few other bodies - Boyer (if he makes the team), Fryer (if Pinto isn't back), Robinson (if he makes the team).  So there will be some roster issues to make.  But, yeah, I hope they don't give up on Hicks yet.

[REPETE]

So Hicks could be on his way to Pittsburgh to resurrect his career?  

As for Arcia, I love the guy, but hope he gets his act together, and realizes a 380' HR counts the same as a 480' HR.  I think Morneau had the same problem, and it took him a few years to figure that out, too.  

[jimmer]

 

So Hicks could be on his way to Pittsburgh to resurrect his career?  

As for Arcia, I love the guy, but hope he gets his act together, and realizes a 380' HR counts the same as a 480' HR.  I think Morneau had the same problem, and it took him a few years to figure that out, too.  

Morneau's issue in '05 was his inability to prepare for the season due to his overwhelming horrible luck with health in the offseason leading up to it.  Dude had everything, one right after the other.  And as if his offseason hadn't been bad enough, he got hit in the head in April. His '04 in limited time was very good and his '06 was an MVP year.

 

And Morneau also never struck out more than 94 times until 2012.  The time he had 94Ks was during the aforementioned '05 season and he had almost 550 PAs that year. Arcia had 127Ks in 410PAs.   So that's 33 MORE Ks in around 140 LESS PAs.

 

I don't think Morneau was doing the same as Arcia.

[tobi0040]

I personally think Arcia makes the team and I think Hicks gets another shot before being traded.  Even if that means he starts in AAA and comes up at some point for one last chance.

 

However, I will say that the Arcia comment is music to my ears. It does show me that defense is a factor when evaluating Arcia.  Because when you factor in defense, I think Arcia vs. Rosario may end up being closer than people think....or maybe even favor Rosario.

[jokin]

 

I personally think Arcia makes the team and I think Hicks gets another shot before being traded.  Even if that means he starts in AAA and comes up at some point for one last chance.

 

However, I will say that the Arcia comment is music to my ears. It does show me that defense is a factor when evaluating Arcia.  Because when you factor in defense, I think Arcia vs. Rosario may end up being closer than people think....or maybe even favor Rosario.

 

I don't trust Reusse, he likes to yank chains, and perhaps Twins management is helping him write the story.  But such moves as suggested for Arcia and Hicks would be a shot in the arm to the franchise and  ashot across the bow to the playing personnel about "business as usual" finally ending.  Not only would it energize Arcia to finally get his act together, both offensively and defensively,  it would also both serve notice to the other veterans about what it will take to protect their own jobs, and motivate the prospects on their now-enhanced chances to kick the doors down and  claim those jobs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

However, I will say that the Arcia comment is music to my ears. It does show me that defense is a factor when evaluating Arcia.  Because when you factor in defense, I think Arcia vs. Rosario may end up being closer than people think....or maybe even favor Rosario.

That's very possible but I'd prefer to give Rosario more time to rebound from a pretty bad 2014 campaign in the minors before we find out. It might not take long, maybe only 4-6 weeks... but I want to see him succeed against AA or AAA pitching before he gets the call.

[tobi0040]

 

That's very possible but I'd prefer to give Rosario more time to rebound from a pretty bad 2014 campaign in the minors before we find out. It might not take long, maybe only 4-6 weeks... but I want to see him succeed against AA or AAA pitching before he gets the call.

 

That is entirely reasonable. Whether Arcia does not make the team out of ST or is sent down in May, I would like to see a message sent that defense and effort matter

[jimmer]

 

That is entirely reasonable. Whether Arcia does not make the team out of ST or is sent down in May, I would like to see a message sent that defense and effort matter

Hard to make the players believe defense matters when Ryan signs a soon to be 40 year old, who has seen his defense drop like a stone the last couple years, to be his starting RF :-)

[gunnarthor]

 

Hard to make the players believe defense matters when Ryan signs a soon to be 40 year old, who has seen his defense drop like a stone the last couple years, to be his starting RF :-)

Wow, we're really going to make another thread about Hunter's defense?  

[jimmer]

 

Wow, we're really going to make another thread about Hunter's defense?  

I couldn't help myself.  Just a little bear poking. I DID put a smiley :-)

[TheLeviathan]

I was really high on Arcia coming into this year, this is a bit of a gut punch.  Even if Reusse is making it out to be more than it is....Molitor is anything but glowing in his comments.

[Kwak]

I read this article today also and my take is that the Twins are fed up wih Arcia. Reusse is likely writing a PR for the Twins. Arcia's defense would be tolerated--if his hitting was "on target". I expect many roster moves if this team "starts slowly". All positions could be affected--except 2B. Incude Arcia on the "at risk" list.

[DuluthFan]

A possible trade of Hicks sooner rather than later would yield a better return. He is out of options after this year. A team trading for Hicks could send him to AAA this year, while next year he would have to remain on the 25 man roster. This is Hick's make or break season. If he doesn't prove that he can play at the major league level now, his career will be similar to players like Sam Fuld and Jordan Schafer. He will become the player that gets waived and claimed by multiple teams needing backup outfield help.

 

Arcia's power numbers have so far kept him in the lineup. If a player like Rosario can be more consistent at the plate and play just marginally better in the outfield, Arcia too can become expendable for the Twins.

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/oswaldo-arcia-and-the-relentless-3-0-hack/

 

Fangraphs article.  'Oswaldo Arcia and the Relentless 3-0 Hack.'

[tobi0040]

I think the best outcome long term maybe that the winner of Arcia vs. Vargas is the DH and the other is moved. This does not need to be played out right now, but food for thought.

[mikelink45]

We have Spring Training patience with Stauffer and Pelfrey, but not Arcia?  We keep hearing Spring Training does not count. I say he is the starter at the start of the season.  If he whiffs April send him down in May when Buxton is ready.  If he turns it around we are in great shape.  

 

Just a few days ago TD had an article on extending Arcia.  How our emotions go up and down.

[jimmer]

 

Wow, we're really going to make another thread about Hunter's defense?  

Since you mentioned it though.

 

Fangraphs' positional rankings has the Twins at 27 (out of 30) for RF.  About Hunter the author writes: 

 

'In one sense, bringing Torii Hunter home for a curtain call in Minnesota is probably good for business. The fans will enjoy it and Hunter and Twins seem to get along pretty well. But in another sense, it will make for some very annoyed pitchers. Hunter has some life left in his bat, but Jason Heyward could probably out-defend Hunter if he had to use his cap instead of a glove.

 

And this isn’t just the metrics talking (-28 DRS, -22 UZR since 2013), I watched nearly every inning he played while in Detroit and I was constantly explaining to my newly adopted dog that most teams have right fielders that can get to routine fly balls.'

 

P.S. this ties into Arcia since Arcia had to move from RF to LF.

[jimmer]

Fangraphs' positional ranking for LF is 21st out of 30.  About Arcia the author writes:

 

'You know Oswaldo Arcia: swinger in 3-0 counts, hitter of long home runs, statuesque defender of the outfield grass. Yes, Arcia is a lot of fun to watch, and the Twins would be much higher on this list if it weren’t for him being so terrible with the glove. Nonetheless, Arcia remains a few (or more) plate discipline tweaks away from being one of the best raw power hitters in the game, as he managed to hit 20 home runs in just 103 games during 2014. He’ll probably always be terrible on defense, pulling his WAR down, but the offensive upside is tremendous.'

 

[bird]

 

We have Spring Training patience with Stauffer and Pelfrey, but not Arcia?  We keep hearing Spring Training does not count. I say he is the starter at the start of the season.  If he whiffs April send him down in May when Buxton is ready.  If he turns it around we are in great shape.  

 

Just a few days ago TD had an article on extending Arcia.  How our emotions go up and down.

But Reusse wasn't writing about spring training stats or our emotions, and I doubt there's two other players in camp that have benefitted more from patience than has Arcia. 

 

It was quite predictable from my vantage point from afar that Arcia was going to be a source of great frustration, especially to Paulie. His body language is painful to watch at times. You can almost feel him tense up with this macho grandiosity, which invariably gets converted into stupidity by the opposing pitcher. He's proven in the past that he can hit for average and control his approach, so why he can't figure it out is enigmatic. And no one will convince me that his crappy outfield play isn't mostly a product of his attitude about it.

 

I'd have zero problem with them shipping him to Rochester with a checklist of things to work on, starting with giving serious thought to growing up a little.

[brvama]

As of now, I think, Arcia comes north and Rosario starts in AAA. However, Rosario will replace Arcia should Ozzie falter and that could happen by May. As much as they like Rosario, it's hard to imagine them putting him on the opening day roster for his MLB debut, especially considering his AA performance LY.

 

CF is a mess and I havent a clue how this one will be cleaned up. No matter what happens there is going to be much angst about to start the season. My gut tells me that Schafer gets the nod, hicks to AAA, and Herrmann/Nunez/Escobar as the fourth OF. After 6-8 weeks. Things will likely change.

[tobi0040]

 

As of now, I think, Arcia comes north and Rosario starts in AAA. However, Rosario will replace Arcia should Ozzie falter and that could happen by May. As much as they like Rosario, it's hard to imagine them putting him on the opening day roster for his MLB debut, especially considering his AA performance LY.

CF is a mess and I havent a clue how this one will be cleaned up. No matter what happens there is going to be much angst about to start the season. My gut tells me that Schafer gets the nod, hicks to AAA, and Herrmann/Nunez/Escobar as the fourth OF. After 6-8 weeks. Things will likely change.

 

I think CF this year will be some mix of Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton eventually.  With all that young talent, I don't see the point for the Twins to give Schafer or Robinson any serious time.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Gotta keep the young guys down, and teach 'em to do things the Twins way........that's how it reads, right or wrong. 

[Eephus]

 

But Reusse wasn't writing about spring training stats or our emotions, and I doubt there's two other players in camp that have benefitted more from patience than has Arcia. 

 

It was quite predictable from my vantage point from afar that Arcia was going to be a source of great frustration, especially to Paulie. His body language is painful to watch at times. You can almost feel him tense up with this macho grandiosity, which invariably gets converted into stupidity by the opposing pitcher. He's proven in the past that he can hit for average and control his approach, so why he can't figure it out is enigmatic. And no one will convince me that his crappy outfield play isn't mostly a product of his attitude about it.

 

I'd have zero problem with them shipping him to Rochester with a checklist of things to work on, starting with giving serious thought to growing up a little.

I may never read a comment I will agree with more that this one for the rest of my life. The red flag for me is his invariable overreaction to inside pitches. He soooo plays into the hands of opposing pitchers. He needs a sports psychologist to calm him down and help him realize it is okay if he hits .305 with only 25 home runs. Something's going to have to click for him or he'll be gone. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Gotta keep the young guys down, and teach 'em to do things the Twins way........that's how it reads, right or wrong. 

Considering Arcia debuted at 22, I'm not sure that's a fair criticism to throw at the Twins - or Ruesse - as the article doesn't even suggest sending him to the minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As much as they like Rosario, it's hard to imagine them putting him on the opening day roster for his MLB debut, especially considering his AA performance LY.

Agreed.  I think people are under-rating how unusual that is.

 

Theo Epstein just defended his likely Kris Bryant decision by saying he's never had a young player make his MLB debut on the opening day roster.  Maybe it's not a great justification for Bryant, who should have been up last year performance-wise, but it highlights that barring unusual circumstances, most players worthy of MLB opening day roster consideration should be (and most likely are) called up late in the previous season, at minimum.  Or they need to demonstrate something further in the minor leagues, however briefly, before getting the call.  Otherwise, it's basically hard-to-judge spring training performance and roster circumstances dictating the decision.

 

Aaron Hicks was an exception in 2013 (and probably an unnecessary one, as the Twins had to add him to the 40-man roster by November 2012 anyway, so it wouldn't have hurt them to add him for a September 2012 call-up).  But even he had a full season succeeding in AA.  Radke in 1995 too.

 

Otherwise, if it's not an elite guy under unusual timing circumstances (Mauer, Bryant), it's almost always back end of the bullpen or bench guys (or Rule 5 guys) who get the distinction of making their MLB debut on an opening day roster.  Ryan Pressly in 2013, Alex Burnett in 2010, Brian Bass in 2008...

 

I guess most on this board probably have Rosario correctly pegged as a long shot anyway, but until I looked into this, I had no idea how long that shot has historically been.