Gardy declines position in Twins' organization -- taking year off

[tobi0040]

Gunn,

 

I just think anyone that keeps three catchers and bats Lexi Casilla 2nd because he is fast, while he hits 220 and doesn't take walks, is really is stuck in his ways.

[gunnarthor]

Gunn,

 

I just think anyone that keeps three catchers and bats Lexi Casilla 2nd because he is fast, while he hits 220 and doesn't take walks, is really is stuck in his ways.

 

Casilla didn't hit .220 and he did take some walks. 

 

2008 Casilla started 89 games while batting second - .332 OBP (league OBP for #2 hitters .330)

2009 Casilla didn't hit well so Gardy gave him all of 26 starts there.

2010 didn't play him much but he did post a .358 OBP in his 16 starts as Hudson's backup.

2011 started 62 games while batting second w/.327 OBP (league OBP for #2 hitters was .331)

 

Not really seeing much to support your theory.  He kept him in the two spot when he was productive and moved him out when he wasn't.  (And batting order is such a useless thing to complain about anyway).  Again, I think for many people narratives developed and they chose to believe those things over what was really happening.  Not that there weren't valid things to criticize him about.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I believe Gardy will manage in 2016. But he'll have to get in then, the clock is ticking for him.

 

If Detroit does a face plant this year, I wonder if Detroit would be a possibility.  I don't know what Dombrowski's reputation is on managers, but he obviously was close to Leyland and Leyland will take a bullet for Gardy. That might actually be fun to have Gardy back in the division--I wouldn't hold it against him one bit. Obviously a dye-in-wool stat-head like Billy Beane wouldn't have an interest in Gardenhire but I bet many others would. 

[tobi0040]

Casilla didn't hit .220 and he did take some walks. 

 

2008 Casilla started 89 games while batting second - .332 OBP (league OBP for #2 hitters .330)

2009 Casilla didn't hit well so Gardy gave him all of 26 starts there.

2010 didn't play him much but he did post a .358 OBP in his 16 starts as Hudson's backup.

2011 started 62 games while batting second w/.327 OBP (league OBP for #2 hitters was .331)

 

Not really seeing much to support your theory.  He kept him in the two spot when he was productive and moved him out when he wasn't.  (And batting order is such a useless thing to complain about anyway).  Again, I think for many people narratives developed and they chose to believe those things over what was really happening.  Not that there weren't valid things to criticize him about.

 

In 2009, Lexi saw half of his AB's batting #2 and he finished the year hitting .202 and was OBP 28% of the time.  In 2007 he hit first or second 60% of the time while hitting .222 and a .256 OBP.  Granted these are a few hundred AB's a year, but it is the logic that was most concerning to me.

 

Gardy has said before he likes speed at the top of the order.  Outside of the year in which he was on base 32% of the time, he should have never been considered there.

 

I just don't think he used data to make decisions. The third catcher could be refuted in five minutes with Microsoft Excel.

[gunnarthor]

In 2009, Lexi saw half of his AB's batting #2 and he finished the year hitting .202 and was OBP 28% of the time.  In 2007 he hit first or second 60% of the time while hitting .222 and a .256 OBP.  Granted these are a few hundred AB's a year, but it is the logic that was most concerning to me.

 

Gardy has said before he likes speed at the top of the order.  Outside of the year in which he was on base 32% of the time, he should have never been considered there.

 

I just don't think he used data to make decisions. The third catcher could be refuted in five minutes with Microsoft Excel.

I think you're moving the goalposts.  Originally you seemed to want to argue that Gardy was so stuck in his ways that he would bat Casilla second, I pointed out (correctly) that that was not true.  Now you want to move the goalposts a bit and argue that "half" his small amount of at-bats happened at that position.  Fine.  Either way, your original implication was wrong and you're still arguing about batting orders.

 

Again, most of this is just tropes that people want to believe than what really happened.  Most of the time, the Twins carried only two catchers on their 25 man roster.  Also, Gardy didn't sac bunt nearly as much as people want to claim.

[gunnarthor]

I believe Gardy will manage in 2016. But he'll have to get in then, the clock is ticking for him.

 

If Detroit does a face plant this year, I wonder if Detroit would be a possibility.  I don't know what Dombrowski's reputation is on managers, but he obviously was close to Leyland and Leyland will take a bullet for Gardy. That might actually be fun to have Gardy back in the division--I wouldn't hold it against him one bit. Obviously a dye-in-wool stat-head like Billy Beane wouldn't have an interest in Gardenhire but I bet many others would. 

Actually, Beane has hired "old school" managers, including his friend Bob Geren.  He's said multiple times that in-game decisions aren't as important to him as how the team is prepared.  Posnanski had a bit on that last year when he was writing about Yost in KC, IIRC.

[tobi0040]

In 2009, Lexi saw half of his AB's batting #2 and he finished the year hitting .202 and was OBP 28% of the time.  In 2007 he hit first or second 60% of the time while hitting .222 and a .256 OBP.  Granted these are a few hundred AB's a year, but it is the logic that was most concerning to me.

 

Gardy has said before he likes speed at the top of the order.  Outside of the year in which he was on base 32% of the time, he should have never been considered there.

 

I just don't think he used data to make decisions. The third catcher could be refuted in five minutes with Microsoft Excel.

 

The batting average of .220 was bit of an exagerration.  But the point remains.   His career OBP was .302. His career OPS was .631.    He saw half of his at bats hitting 1 or 2.  I am guessing those numbers were dramatically lower than the league average.

 

If that is not evidence that Gardy heavily favored speed over OBP, I am not sure what will convince you.

 

My criticisms of him have been rooted primarily with some semblence of data. 

[nicksaviking]

I think it's pretty fair to say Gardy lost control of this clubhouse, so I'm not sure you'd say that is a strength of his.

 

I don't remember hearing much about him losing control of the clubhouse.  It just seemed to me that Gardy was more tuned in with the veterans than the young players.  It was time to go, but I don't think he lost the team.

[stringer bell]

Regarding Gardenhire's batting orders: I think he was very locked in to leaving certain hitters in certain spots in the order. Sometimes, by default, there was a bad match with another player. For example, until 2013 he always kept Mauer at #3 and Moreneau behind him. With a couple of less-than-great offensive players, sometimes Gardy would put someone like Casilla (or earlier Punto) in the #2 spot because he didn't want to move the Mauers, Morneaus and Cuddyers around. This was reflected in the field with the famous move of Revere to right field. At various times keeping Span in center, Cuddyer in right and Willingham in left despite causing problems with other positions.

[gunnarthor]

The batting average of .220 was bit of an exagerration.  But the point remains.   His career OBP was .302. His career OPS was .631.    He saw half of his at bats hitting 1 or 2.  I am guessing those numbers were dramatically lower than the league average.

 

If that is not evidence that Gardy heavily favored speed over OBP, I am not sure what will convince you.

 

My criticisms of him have been rooted primarily with some semblence of data. 

Your criticisms have been mostly observing something, making your explanation for it and then pinning that thought process on Gardy.  Big difference.  And then you use hyperbole to try and make your point.  

[jctwins]

I believe Gardy will manage in 2016. But he'll have to get in then, the clock is ticking for him.

 

If Detroit does a face plant this year, I wonder if Detroit would be a possibility.  I don't know what Dombrowski's reputation is on managers, but he obviously was close to Leyland and Leyland will take a bullet for Gardy. That might actually be fun to have Gardy back in the division--I wouldn't hold it against him one bit. Obviously a dye-in-wool stat-head like Billy Beane wouldn't have an interest in Gardenhire but I bet many others would. 

 

Leyland isn't in Detroit anymore. They replaced him last year.

[tobi0040]

Your criticisms have been mostly observing something, making your explanation for it and then pinning that thought process on Gardy.  Big difference.  And then you use hyperbole to try and make your point.  

 

Two questions for you.

 

Do you think a guy with a career OBP of .300 and .630 OPS should see any amount of time batting 1st or 2nd? If so, which data point suggests this is the appropriate spot in the order? 

 

Which data point suggests that creating a weaker hitting lineup so you will not risk losing the DH in the event a catcher is hurt is a prudent one?  Why has no other team deployed this strategy that Gardy has pioneered?  You have curiously ignored this second portion of my two examples.

 

Since we are moving onto accusations.  I think some criticize Gardy at all costs. Sometimes off base.  In response to that, you defend him at all costs, sometimes off base like this one.  I simply suggested two instances where irrational fears and old school hard and fast rules have trumped data driven decisions.  I don't think I am off base here.  Nor has anything I said been hyperbolic.  The things you have noted, like dumb, lazy, etc. have never been used by me.

 

Here is an unbiased view from ESPN.  The Twins, the franchise he has been the coach of the last 12 or so years were ranked in the "skeptics" category from an analytical standpoint, second from the lowest category and last in the AL central.  They note bringing in Molitor "will bring an open mind to analytical discussion"

 

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#mlb-sfg

 

Link to my blog with this story:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/415/entry-6358-espn-sabr-rankings/

[gunnarthor]

Two questions for you.

 

Do you think a guy with a career OBP of .300 and .630 OPS should see any amount of time batting 1st or 2nd? If so, which data point suggests this is the appropriate spot in the order? 

 

Which data point suggests that creating a weaker hitting lineup so you will not risk losing the DH in the event a catcher is hurt is a prudent one?  Why has no other team deployed this strategy that Gardy has pioneered?  You have curiously ignored this second portion of my two examples.

 

Since we are moving onto accusations.  I think some criticize Gardy at all costs. Sometimes off base.  In response to that, you defend him at all costs, sometimes off base like this one.  I simply suggested two instances where irrational fears and old school hard and fast rules have trumped data driven decisions.  I don't think I am off base here.  Nor has anything I said been hyperbolic.  The things you have noted, like dumb, lazy, etc. have never been used by me.

 

Here is an unbiased view.  The Twins, the franchise he has been the coach of the last 12 or so years were ranked in the "skeptics" category from an analytical standpoint, second from the lowest.  They note bringing in Molitor "wil help". 

 

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#mlb-sfg

Obviously, .300/.630 OBP/OPS doesn't stick in the two spot and Gardy didn't do it either.  (Now you could argue that a young guy coming up could hit high in the order and the team would live with his struggles while he learns but neither of us is talking about that).  I guess your second complaint is he didn't use Pinto enough at DH or rested Mauer too much? Or is this some version of the "carried three catchers" trope?  I forget all the conspiracies but it's a made up complaint. 

 

And that's my main problem with your posts in this thread - you say/suggest something that is not true, defend it to death.  I mean, your best argument is that Gardy didn't give a **** about putting a good on-base guy in the two spot but you couldn't just say that (and that would be true, during his run, his #2 hitters were last in OBP and second to last in OPS).  You had to go with silly hyperbole and suggest that Casilla got tons of at bats in the two hole when 1) he didn't and 2) when he got the most of them, he was a better OBP guy than league average.  But the response to any batting order complaint is that it's a batting order complaint.  It really doesn't matter.  It's like focusing on one small nearly inconsequential thing while ignoring more relevant things - like how his teams usually outperformed their pyth w/l record, his strong use of bullpens, care of the pitching staff, etc.  HBT did a study on what managers effect and ranked Gardy the best manager in the game. I think that tells us more than batting order arguments and implied stubbornness. 

 

In any event, these type of threads go nowhere.  I hope Molitor does a great job as manager and if Gardy wants to manage again, I hope he does well. 

[Linus]

I think it's pretty fair to say Gardy lost control of this clubhouse, so I'm not sure you'd say that is a strength of his.

I am not aware of any indication that he lost control of the clubhouse.  In fact, his reputation is that of a great guy to play for and his teams played hard through the end of each season even when they were losing 90+ games.  There are all kinds of things to criticize him about but this would actually be one of his strengths.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Leyland isn't in Detroit anymore. They replaced him last year.

Right. Leyland is now "advisor" for Detroit. I am only speculating on potential landing spots for Gardy. There are indications that Ausmus doesn't really have a grip on that team. Seems like Leyland would refer Gardy to Dombrowski if Dombrowski started asking.

[Ex-Iowegian]

Needing to hear a different voice maybe, and losing the clubhouse are not one and the same. Probably one of the reasons a student does not keep the same teacher through out their entire school career.

I think Ron is a very good teacher of the game. He allowed players multiple chances to work through their spots even to the point that when they may have fallen apart, he was accused of not making a change quick enough. Perhaps not the best managing move for wins and losses, but certainly not dysfunctional in a way to treat your players.

[tobi0040]

Obviously, .300/.630 OBP/OPS doesn't stick in the two spot and Gardy didn't do it either.  (Now you could argue that a young guy coming up could hit high in the order and the team would live with his struggles while he learns but neither of us is talking about that).  I guess your second complaint is he didn't use Pinto enough at DH or rested Mauer too much? Or is this some version of the "carried three catchers" trope?  I forget all the conspiracies but it's a made up complaint. 

 

And that's my main problem with your posts in this thread - you say/suggest something that is not true, defend it to death.  I mean, your best argument is that Gardy didn't give a **** about putting a good on-base guy in the two spot but you couldn't just say that (and that would be true, during his run, his #2 hitters were last in OBP and second to last in OPS).  You had to go with silly hyperbole and suggest that Casilla got tons of at bats in the two hole when 1) he didn't and 2) when he got the most of them, he was a better OBP guy than league average.  But the response to any batting order complaint is that it's a batting order complaint.  It really doesn't matter.  It's like focusing on one small nearly inconsequential thing while ignoring more relevant things - like how his teams usually outperformed their pyth w/l record, his strong use of bullpens, care of the pitching staff, etc.  HBT did a study on what managers effect and ranked Gardy the best manager in the game. I think that tells us more than batting order arguments and implied stubbornness. 

 

In any event, these type of threads go nowhere.  I hope Molitor does a great job as manager and if Gardy wants to manage again, I hope he does well. 

 

In nearly 1,000 PA's batting 1 or 2....his OBP was in fact .301. The irony here is you have suggested multiple times that I am trying to make statistcs fit my pre-concieved notion.  I would caution you on that.

 

I will also suggest another link that talks about the third catcher, maybe this is not a vast conspiracy among lunatics?

 

http://www.google.com/url?url=http://www.twincities.com/ci_20436125/minnesota-twins-gardenhire-still-might-want-third-catcher&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=mcbsVM32N5P7sATTuoD4CQ&ved=0CBQQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNE-huW4aiV6IEhAaavzVDLvXOdoLw

 

 

On Base Percentage CalculatorHits:  

Bases on Balls (Walks):  

Times Hit By a Pitch:  

At bats:  

Sacrifice Flies:  

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=5248&position=2B&season=0

 

http://www.miniwebtool.com/on-base-percentage-calculator/?h=236&bb=78&hbp=5&ab=951&sf=25

 

On Base Percentage

0.3012

[Otto von Ballpark]

Correct me if I am wrong, but Gardy has spent his entire post-playing career with the Twins, in his wife's home state, and I do not recall him ever pursuing or being pursued for a job elsewhere, despite a fairly long tenure in minor positions and not being obviously groomed for the top job (Molitor had been rumored as a likely replacement for TK).

 

Do people here really see Gardy putting in the work of procuring a job elsewhere? Much less teams flying in to MN to try to convince him to leave his home. He was a fine fit for the Twins, but seems like an unlikely participant in the "executive search" process by which modern teams hire their managers.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- let's try not to let this turn into an argument between two posters about their relative veracity.  You have both made your points now please either broaden the discussion or move on.

[gunnarthor]

Correct me if I am wrong, but Gardy has spent his entire post-playing career with the Twins, in his wife's home state, and I do not recall him ever pursuing or being pursued for a job elsewhere, despite a fairly long tenure in minor positions and not being obviously groomed for the top job (Molitor had been rumored as a likely replacement for TK).

 

Do people here really see Gardy putting in the work of procuring a job elsewhere? Much less teams flying in to MN to try to convince him to leave his home. He was a fine fit for the Twins, but seems like an unlikely participant in the "executive search" process by which modern teams hire their managers.

I thought he lived in Oklahoma in the offseason?  But yes, if he wants another job then I do see him putting in the effort.  But he is a millionaire and in his late 50s, so if he wanted to retire or comeback to the Twins in a part-time role, I would think that was ok, too.

[Halsey Hall]

Gardy's a Florida resident now, which saves him mega bucks in state income taxes.  I could live on his savings. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Do people here really see Gardy putting in the work of procuring a job elsewhere?

I do, yes. He had all winter to weigh the pros and cons and it sounds like he still wants it.

[jctwins]

Needing to hear a different voice maybe, and losing the clubhouse are not one and the same. Probably one of the reasons a student does not keep the same teacher through out their entire school career.

I think Ron is a very good teacher of the game. He allowed players multiple chances to work through their spots even to the point that when they may have fallen apart, he was accused of not making a change quick enough. Perhaps not the best managing move for wins and losses, but certainly not dysfunctional in a way to treat your players.

 

I think TK is the one that was doing all of the teaching at Spring Training while Gardy was chatting it up with the coaches and "his guys."

 

Gardy was not a hands on teacher like TK was, and Molitor seems to be. This was the downfall of the fundamental approach that this organization built it's reputation on, which TK was responsible for, and Gardy rode on.

 

Regarding the OP, I think this is why Gardy isn't as likely to hand pick his next job as some might suggest.

[Pius Jefferson]

What would surprise me is Gardenhire having his choice of jobs. Since I don't see him taking over a team rebuilding  since he just went through four 90+ loss seasons in Minnesota. That narrows the opportunities and I question if any team wanting to do something in the playoff is going to hire a guy with such a horrible post-season record. You can only take not on Gardy so far before he gets his fare share of criticism.