Article: Twins Must Decide When, Not If, Glen Perkins & Jared Burton Are Available

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?678-Twins-Must-Decide-When-Not-If-Glen-Perkins-Jared-Burton-Are-Available

[Bark's Lounge]

I'll give my two cents on the Perkins side of this equation. If you can get good+ value for him - why not? I have to admit that I am impressed with how he dug himself out of the Twins Doghouse and as a reliever he has pretty much proven he is strikeout/power pitcher. If you can get a good+ return for him go for it... anything less than that would be foolish. He is the only pitcher we have except for Liriano who can strike out hitters at a good clip.

[Jim H]

Sometimes I wonder about the point of some your posts. This is one of them. Of course Perkins and or Burton are available, if someone blows you away. But, your post asumes that the Twins can't be competitive next year, or if they can be, there are replacements readily available for either or both. Neither, of these undiscussed but pertinent issues are addressed.

 

So what if Perkins and Burton are tradeable, the question is whether trading either or both is a good idea, and you really don't address this. Clearly, in your mind, it is a good idea, but you don't explain why it is.

 

Personally, I don't think quality late inning relievers are that readily available. Oh, there are a lot of guys who throw hard, and some have impressive strikeout numbers but there are too many 37 year olds plus with declining stuff, finding work in late innings, for me to believe that you just trade cheap quality guys, UNLESS, you've got someone to replace them.

[jlovren]

I'll give my two cents on the Perkins side of this equation. If you can get good+ value for him - why not? I have to admit that I am impressed with how he dug himself out of the Twins Doghouse and as a reliever he has pretty much proven he is strikeout/power pitcher. If you can get a good+ return for him go for it... anything less than that would be foolish. He is the only pitcher we have except for Liriano who can strike out hitters at a good clip.

Unless we can get some seriously good value for either than we do not let our relievers go. With as bad as a pitching staff as we have we cannot afford to let our only strikeout pitcher go. They are at very friendly salary levels which will also help us out for the future as well.

[Highabove]

Why would we trade Perkins? He has a very Team friendly contract and is locked up for the next four years. Are we going to get front line pitching prospects for him, probably not. You cannot turn around an Organization with B and C prospects. Why do so many people want the Twins to become the Kansas City Royals?

[JB_Iowa]

I'm all in favor of trading anybody who can bring back good starting pitching prospects (or better yet, a proven starting pitcher).

 

Except for last year's disastrous bullpen, the Twins have pretty consistently shown that they are able to put together a decent BP from minor leaguers, free agent pickups and the scrapheap (and do it at a reasonable price). I don't have any reason to doubt that the "Ryan/Gardenhire/Anderson/minor league pitching coaches group" will be able to maintain that tradition.

 

Their success with the bullpen directly contrasts with a dearth of successful starting pitching. Something HAS to give. It's unrealistic to think that they are going to be able to put together a decent starting staff solely from FA pickups. If Perkins or Burton or Capps (or anyone else) has to be a part of a deal to get some "better than mediocre" starting pitching to Minnesota, then so be it.

[John Bonnes]

Sometimes I wonder about the point of some your posts. This is one of them. Of course Perkins and or Burton are available, if someone blows you away. But, your post asumes that the Twins can't be competitive next year, or if they can be, there are replacements readily available for either or both. Neither, of these undiscussed but pertinent issues are addressed.

 

No, I don't think the Twins can be competitive, even in the AL Central, in 2013 because of their starting pitching. I see zero chance of them going and committing the dollars and years to a high impact starting pitcher that would be required. (And I wouldn't disagree with that philosophy.) The entire rotation - spots one through five - are question marks right now. I stop short of advocating completely blowing up the team, but I'm not necessarily opposed to that. But I believe there is no reason to hold onto relievers, even closers, because they might be valuable in 2014 or 2015. A team that can afford to invest innings in waiver pickups/farmhands/etc can find some effective relievers. It will cost them wins, but that's something they can afford to pay.

[Brandon]

If you sign Burton to a team friendly contract. Why would you trade him? I'm in the minority of opinion that our current core of players is almost good enough. We need 1 to 2 starting pitchers and maybe someone better than the .720 OPS we are getting from Doumit who is solid but not spectacular.

 

Bullpen is good, defense overall is solid and offense has picked it up just holes in the rotation with everyone returning next year minus the pitching. The better question is how do we develop a solid rotation for cheep on the fly with trades, minor league signings, free agents. We could contend this year with another starter or 2 and probably next too.

[Highabove]

Is it a given, that a large portion of the 25-30 million coming off the books next year, will be going into the Pohlad's pocket?

[twinswon1991]

Everyone on the team should be for sale. By the time this team is competitive again, 2014-2015, only Mauer is a given to still be around. Relievers are the easiest guys to replace in baseball and are the last thing you need if you are rebuilding.

 

The problem is that Terry Ryan is so stupid he will probably try to trade FOR relievers to build the bullpen and will continue to believe this team can compete with its starting 5 who are similar to many AAA staffs.

 

If you can get an A ball lottery ticket starting pitcher prospect for either you MUST pull the trigger. Any of the numerous failed SP's in the minors could addition for the vacant RP jobs and will likely do a decent job. Heck, Slama or Guerra may be better than either of these guys next year as relievers seem to go from all-star to independant leagues in 2 years.

[Winston Smith]

Thank you John. Everyone should be on the table, this team needs lots of everything. Next years rotation right now would be Diamond, Blackburn and what?

[twinslover]

I don't care who they trade as long as the return is young starting pitching. Where is the Brad Radke of this decade? Personally I would like the Twins to keep Perkins and Burton. I don't particularly care for NoNeck, so like Bonnes said, if they can get something for him, do it and do it now.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Next years rotation right now would be Diamond, Blackburn and what?

Ugh... Blackburn would probably be the opening day starter. Follow him with Diamond, Hendriks and Walters. Best guess for the 5th starter - based on what's already in the organization - would be some combination of Swarzak, Duensing, Manship and/or De Vries, until Gibson is ready.

 

And the next best prospect on the horizon is B.J. Hermsen, who doesn't strike out enough guys to rate as anything higher than a durable #4. (He's also only pitched a little over 60 innings at AA... so he's not exactly banging down the door.)

[Jim H]

OK John, your post now makes more sense, not that I necessarily agree with your reasoning. The thing is Burton and/or Perkins could indeed potentially yield someone eventually useful. But, whoever the return is, he won't likely contribute anything for the next 3 years and maybe longer. Ryan has always been able to identify potentially useful players in trades, but the more useful a player potentially is, the farther away from the big leagues he is going to be. Neither Burton or Perkins is going to get you an immediate impact guy. In fact if you want a guy who might help you soon, he won't be much more valuable than Burton or Perkins.

 

I think you probably hang on to both Perkins and Burton if you believe that adding 1 or 2 FA starters could make you a contender next year, and you are willing to pony up for some quality starters. I don't think the Twins are aiming 4-5 years down the road. They want to be competitive next year and probably strongly competitive the year after(2014).

 

Trading useful parts for guys who won't/can't help till 2016 doesn't seem like the right plan to me.

[clutterheart]

I hope like hell the team has a plan for 2013 to get a top line starting pitcher that doesn't involve trading their "core"guys. If they had a competent rotation Twins would be in the hunt for a play-off spot.

The Offense is good

The Bullpen is above replacement level

The defense is not bad

The Starting pitching has been horrible.

Add 1 or 2 decent Starters and this team is .500 and just 4-5 games out from first.

 

I would be disappointed if they blew it all up for some prospects unless they could get guys who could be Top-Line pitchers or All stars. And nobody on the MLB Team is going to give them that kind of return. So I would be against these moves because the type of return probably won't be there.

 

If there is one thing I hope they learned from the Bill Smith Era is the only way to get better is to Fleece the other team (See Baltimore and Tampa Bay) and they don't have the assets to be the Fleecer.

[glunn]

I am still regretting letting Crane go to the White Sox.

 

Perkins and Burton are both high quality late inning relievers -- not that easily replaced. And both of them could be valuable in 2013 and 2014.

 

Let Capps go for a decent pitching prospect. Capps seems unlikely to still be valuable by the time that the Twins are ready to contend. Maybe he could be packaged to get a high potential pitching prospect.

[Rosterman]

People forget that Capps is still young. He is a proven closer and has a very affordable extension. So he is great trade bait. Burton and Perkins are still JUST relief pitchers. No one would be trading them to be an immediate closer. Even come next season, most teams have their own idea of a closer-in-training, why would they overpay for someone from the Twins. Both Perkins and Burton are undervalued important pieces of near future bullpens. Until they reach closer status, they will just be bullpen guys in par with Crain and Guerrier, both potential closer material but still in the bullpen two years into their higher-priced contracts. When you trade a solid relief pitcher, you can expect a salary savings and a comparable young prospect who may or may not pan out (remember Twins trading Mulvey for Rauch, for example). Again, Perkins gets worth IF he is named and performs as a closer. Same with Burton. At this point, if Burton shows stuff, make him closer until he itches out of it. Or he may become a gem.

[LaBombo]

OK John, your post now makes more sense, not that I necessarily agree with your reasoning. The thing is Burton and/or Perkins could indeed potentially yield someone eventually useful. But, whoever the return is, he won't likely contribute anything for the next 3 years and maybe longer. Ryan has always been able to identify potentially useful players in trades, but the more useful a player potentially is, the farther away from the big leagues he is going to be. Neither Burton or Perkins is going to get you an immediate impact guy. In fact if you want a guy who might help you soon, he won't be much more valuable than Burton or Perkins.

 

I think you probably hang on to both Perkins and Burton if you believe that adding 1 or 2 FA starters could make you a contender next year, and you are willing to pony up for some quality starters. I don't think the Twins are aiming 4-5 years down the road. They want to be competitive next year and probably strongly competitive the year after(2014).

 

Trading useful parts for guys who won't/can't help till 2016 doesn't seem like the right plan to me.

Hey, Jim. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

 

The Twins will not write giant checks for "FA starters" next year and suddenly transform from crap into contenders. Frugality aside, their rotation currently boasts exactly zero reliable starters who can be counted on in 2013. Zero. Jim, this is still for you. Are you with me? Zero.

 

That leaves the lineup and bullpen. Which of those two (both?) were you going to hang your hat on in 2013 to make up for an absolute vacuum of starting pitching? An offense that's been dreadful despite healthy, productive seasons from M/M/S and a nice shot in the arm from Willingham? Or a bullpen that, despite you bizarre assertions to the contrary, possesses nearly all the smart, quick turn-around tradable assets in the entire organization?

 

Once again, Jim, pretty much everything you said was wrong. Other than that, it was an enjoyable read.

[Nick Nelson]

Glen Perkins hasn't been especially effective this year

You keep saying this, John. I'd love hear some explanation for it. Perkins is blowing people away.

[Guest USAFChief]

Nobody will shed a tear if Ryan is able to trade Capps for something useful.

 

I can listen to the idea of flipping Burton for a good return.

 

But trading Perkins is shortsighted. Despite popular myth building a pen isn't easy.

 

You rebuild by flipping overperformers and/or players who won't be around long. Perkins is neither of those. Trading away all your good players is what KC tried for two decades.

 

Find starting pitching for sure but not at the expense of your good cheap assets.

[Highabove]

Unless your trading with Bill Smith, Bullpen Arms do not bring much in trade.

 

What did the Twins give up for the 2009 leader in saves, Brian Fuentes? A player to be named later Loek VanMil

 

What did the Mets receve from the Brewers for Premiere Closer Francisco Rodriguez??

Two players to be named latter LHP Danny Ray Herrera and RHP Adrian Rosario.

What a haul that was!!

I Agree with USAF, why trade your good cheap assets for anything short of starting pitching.

Lets not get Trade happy

 

 

[Boom Boom]

I am not on board with trading Perkins. I believe he'll be a part of the next contending Twins team, and the Twins aren't going to get enough return in a trade for him that it would be worth it.

 

Burton... I think he's done it with a bit of smoke and mirrors. I could listen on trade offers for him, but I don't believe the Twins would get much at all for Burton.

[Loosey]

I disagree with trading either of these guys. First of all they have team friendly contracts at this point. Secondly, they are relief pitchers. Teams rarely give up high-end prospects for a releif pitcher due to the notion that they can find good arms somewhere without giving up much if anything. The only team that I can recall giving up a good prospect for a reliever is the Twins trading Ramos for Capps. I have mentioned this before, do not trade away your best assets for wild card B-level prospects. When you have a proven commodity in Perkins and Burton who are relatively young and assumingly have quite few years of success ahead of them why trade them for unknowns. The team will be better in the long term with these two guys than without them.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with John, I see almost no chance they sign 1or2or 3starting pitchers in the offseason. I also do not think they can hold onto of their good assets and not make trades. The minora are barren of impact or even average MLB players at the highest levels. If you won't trade your valuable assets, you ate going to be hard pressed to get better.

[jeffk]

Burton and Perkins' value are artificially low because they're not "closers", even if they have the good stuff.. Move Capps if anyone.

[Winston Smith]

You don't trade a player just to trade them unless it's a salary dump and the Twins aren't going broke at this point. If any player on the team can bring back talent that will make them better you do it. If Perkins or Burton can bring back talent to make you better do it. If Morneau, Willingham or Span can bring back talent to make you better do it. If you trade them to save a few bucks to put in the Pohlads pocket then you piss me off. We need more talent!

[Steve Lein]

Anybody who thinks the Twins can get a "decent starting pitching" prospect for any of their current reliever crop is living in a world of sunshine, flowers, and pots of gold at the end of rainbows. If you want a high-end starter prospect in a return, the guys you have to dangle are named Span, Morneau, and Willingham. Span is one of my favorite Twins, but he almost has to be the centerpiece in a deal for a SP if the Twins feel like contending next year.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Unless your trading with Bill Smith, Bullpen Arms do not bring much in trade.

 

What did the Twins give up for the 2009 leader in saves, Brian Fuentes? A player to be named later Loek VanMil

 

What did the Mets receve from the Brewers for Premiere Closer Francisco Rodriguez??

Two players to be named latter LHP Danny Ray Herrera and RHP Adrian Rosario.

What a haul that was!!

I Agree with USAF, why trade your good cheap assets for anything short of starting pitching.

Lets not get Trade happy

 

 

The Orioles got Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara. That looks likes like a pretty good return for a bullpen arm.

[John Bonnes]

You keep saying this, John. I'd love hear some explanation for it. Perkins is blowing people away.

Nick, his overall stats have been fine, but he's had a few hiccups that have, through last week at least, left him with a neutral (maybe even negative) WPA. I think he would probably agree.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=8041&position=P&type=5&gds=&gde=

[Nick Nelson]

Nick, his overall stats have been fine, but he's had a few hiccups that have, through last week at least, left him with a neutral (maybe even negative) WPA. I think he would probably agree.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=8041&position=P&type=5&gds=&gde=

His WPA isn't negative or neutral, it's positive. And two of the guys ahead of him in that category are Alex Burnett and Jeff Gray, which has to make you question using that metric as the sole determinant of a player's effectiveness.

 

How many games has Perkins cost the Twins this year? One? And that was back in early April.