Dear Terry Ryan, about this season......

[DocBauer]

Hi Terry,

 

I'm a fan. Not just of the Twins, but of you and your often thankless job. For the most part, I have to tip my cap to you and the job you've done as the Twins GM over the years.

 

I'll be honest, I wasn't so sure about you in the beginning. As an example, Erickson for Klingenbeck still gives me shudders and gives me that awful taste in the back of my throat. But you figured it out. You figured it out so well, that despite all the financial constraints of a mid-market team stuck in the HHH Metrodome, you outfoxed almost anyone you made a deal with, found a bunch of steals on the scrap pile, and even made a few inexpensive and shrewd FA moves here and there. And for the most part, after you settled in, the Twins won and won consistently with you in charge.

 

Other GM's have caught up with you to a degree Terry, even though I still think you're one of the smartest guys in the room. And finances have continued to grow and get crazy. And when you came back to do your job, at first, I think you didn't realize all the changes, or simply didn't realize how Target Field had changed the financial structure of the Twins. But again, I think you're figuring it out.

 

The Hughes move was brilliant, as was the recent re-signing. (why oh why didn't you listen to me about Kazmir though?) Nolasco was smart, just unlucky. Love the Santana signing! And considering the market, below value even, both he and the Hughes contract! We've been drafting really smart lately, and the moves for Meyer and May are just beginning to show some fruit, and I believe each will prove to be outstanding.

 

And Terry, to be honest, I can almost understand moving both Span AND Revere for these potential studs and turning the job over to Hicks. I really can. We're talking about a top 100 prospect with great tools and potential coming off his best season. You figured he'd play good defense and at least look mediocre, right? And he'd only get better, right?

 

But here's the problem Terry, you miscalculated. You were wrong. And that's OK. You just needed to make a smart move to fix it, hedge your bets, provide depth and options. But Terry, you didn't. And please don't try to BS me or anyone else that you felt Presley and Mastro were legit fallback options, and you just knew you had Santana in your hip pocket.

 

You blew it Terry. And you're blowing it again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Hicks and previous washout Schafer are going to man up and take over CF in 2015 why now? Because of hope, potential and crossed fingers?

 

We have a pair of average defensive corner OFers on our team. Yes, I said average. I'm allowing Arcia to continue to improve, and Hunter to rely enough on experience, smarts, and what's left of the rubber on his tires for at least one more decent defensive season. But we need something better in CF Terry, and so do your pitchers, than hopes and prayers. Do you have a plan? I hope that you do. I hope that I'm rambling for no reason, and with a month and a half before pitchers and catchers report, you have a deal or two in mind to pull out. And with a wave of your hand, we'll have a legitimate ML quality CF to patrol Target Field for 2015 to ease ERA and Twins pitcher's stomach flutters and ulcers.

 

But if you don't....shame on you Terry.

[curt1965]

No one, absolutely nobody, does better writing than the ol' Doc!

[PseudoSABR]

I'm not sure how much covering CF matters when the team was noncompetitive in the long run, In the short term, it made for some unwatchable baseball, but the future assets of May and Meyer may better serve us fans than our memories of the semi-competitive play of centerfielders the past two years.

 

I don't think TR is trying to fool anyone on the 2015 centerfield situation.  I think the team has too much invested in its internal opitions, and must entertain Hicks et al. until Buxtun prevails. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Don't give up on Aaron Hicks... dude can take a walk!

 

He may very well turn into an average MLB player by season's end.

 

Can he do it? YES HE CAN!

 

Vote Terry R, and vote for success.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure how much covering CF matters when the team was noncompetitive in the long run, In the short term, it made for some unwatchable baseball, but the future assets of May and Meyer may better serve us fans than our memories of the semi-competitive play of centerfielders the past two years.

 

I don't think TR is trying to fool anyone on the 2015 centerfield situation.  I think the team has too much invested in its internal opitions, and must entertain Hicks et al. until Buxtun prevails. 

 

I would argue we have devested ourselves of Aaron Hicks.  Marching him out to CF last year (and again if we do so this year) is all but declaring him a failure.  

 

And I'll say it again - those furture assets like May and Meyer as well as the high money investment pitchers - would sure make some better memories if they had a semi-competent defense behind them.   I am baffled by how this organization and this fan-base continue to think this problem is all on the pitchers.

 

Doc is right - get them a damn centerfielder already.  A real one.  

[brvama]

Just a random thought about Hicks: will the change in manager and mostly staff provide a change of scenery, so to speak? Could that along with Hunter help Hicks turn the corner to approach more of his potential?

 

I'm really on the fence about adding a defensive CF vs. staying internal until Buxton arrives. There are good arguments both ways.

[jorgenswest]

I'm not sure how much covering CF matters when the team was noncompetitive in the long run, In the short term, it made for some unwatchable baseball, but the future assets of May and Meyer may better serve us fans than our memories of the semi-competitive play of centerfielders the past two years.

 

I don't think TR is trying to fool anyone on the 2015 centerfield situation. I think the team has too much invested in its internal opitions, and must entertain Hicks et al. until Buxtun prevails.

 

I think putting a good defense behind a young pitcher is much more valuable to their development than putting more runs on the board for them.

 

Pitching in the major leagues is difficult enough without having extra singles falling in front of your outfielders who have to play deep due to lack of range. It is difficult enough without a catcher who turns the low strike into a ball.

 

I think defense does matter to the long term development of the young pitching. It has been a long time since the Twins had even close to an average defense. It has been a long time since they have brought up a young pitcher who found success.

[Kwak]

 It has been a long time since they have brought up a young pitcher who found success.

 

This is the real problem--pitcher development by the organization.  It is impossible for the Twins to draft so early and so consistently such that a major league-ready pitchers fall into the organization, keeping the pipeline full.  Nearly all pitchers are developed (by one organization or another) and the Twins must learn to be better than ML average for success.  The entire organization system and philosophy must be corrected, even if it means clearing-out "the ole-boys-club".

[PseudoSABR]

How many stop-gap excellent-defensively centerfielders are really viable options for the club? Bourjos (which would require more than money to acquire)?  The Twins are in a sticky situation until Buxton gets here and I'm not sure what kind of investment would actually benefit the pitching staff until then.

[TheLeviathan]

How many stop-gap excellent-defensively centerfielders are really viable options for the club? Bourjos (which would require more than money to acquire)?  The Twins are in a sticky situation until Buxton gets here and I'm not sure what kind of investment would actually benefit the pitching staff until then.

It's hard for all of us to know that obviously, but we are talking about a fairly established, multiple season pattern of indifference (to outright disregard) of outfield defense. So I don't buy that out you are trying to give them.

[gunnarthor]

This is the real problem--pitcher development by the organization.  It is impossible for the Twins to draft so early and so consistently such that a major league-ready pitchers fall into the organization, keeping the pipeline full.  Nearly all pitchers are developed (by one organization or another) and the Twins must learn to be better than ML average for success.  The entire organization system and philosophy must be corrected, even if it means clearing-out "the ole-boys-club".

I don't really buy this.  The Twins, under Ryan, actually had a real strong pipeline of developed pitchers, either by trade or draft.  The team saw many of them leave b/c they got too expensive too keep, bad trades or no room for them.  The complaint about Ryan used to be that he knew how to get pitchers but couldn't find any bats.  Ideally, this time around, Ryan will be able to keep a few guys here longer.  And he already has managed to get a pretty good minor league pipeline flowing.

[Kwak]

I don't really buy this.  The Twins, under Ryan, actually had a real strong pipeline of developed pitchers, either by trade or draft.  The team saw many of them leave b/c they got too expensive too keep, bad trades or no room for them.  The complaint about Ryan used to be that he knew how to get pitchers but couldn't find any bats.  Ideally, this time around, Ryan will be able to keep a few guys here longer.  And he already has managed to get a pretty good minor league pipeline flowing.

No--not even close. TheTwins thught they had a pipeline for 08--Slowey, Garza, Blackburn, Liriano, and Perkins.  None left because of high price.  Perkins had to be reinvented as a RP,  Garza was traded ofll the need fo a RHH OF, Slowey and Blackburn couldn't hack it any longer, and the Twins lost confidence in Liriano (with some justification).  After that what were the "internally" developed starters?  Gibson, May(?), and maybe Meyer--none of which can be claimed to be "sure things". 

 

 

The Twins didn't commit mega-millions on free-agent pitchers because they had a full pipeline!  They did it because the pipeline wasn't full, and the "dumpster-diving" didn't work.

[Paul Pleiss]

No--not even close. TheTwins thught they had a pipeline for 08--Slowey, Garza, Blackburn, Liriano, and Perkins.  None left because of high price.  Perkins had to be reinvented as a RP,  Garza was traded ofll the need fo a RHH OF, Slowey and Blackburn couldn't hack it any longer, and the Twins lost confidence in Liriano (with some justification).  After that what were the "internally" developed starters?  Gibson, May(?), and maybe Meyer--none of which can be claimed to be "sure things". 

 

 

The Twins didn't commit mega-millions on free-agent pitchers because they had a full pipeline!  They did it because the pipeline wasn't full, and the "dumpster-diving" didn't work.

When in doubt, blame Bill Smith. It's probably his fault... maybe... but he sure is doing a great job with the Hammond Stadium renovations!

[gunnarthor]

No--not even close. TheTwins thught they had a pipeline for 08--Slowey, Garza, Blackburn, Liriano, and Perkins.  None left because of high price.  Perkins had to be reinvented as a RP,  Garza was traded ofll the need fo a RHH OF, Slowey and Blackburn couldn't hack it any longer, and the Twins lost confidence in Liriano (with some justification).  After that what were the "internally" developed starters?  Gibson, May(?), and maybe Meyer--none of which can be claimed to be "sure things". 

 

 

The Twins didn't commit mega-millions on free-agent pitchers because they had a full pipeline!  They did it because the pipeline wasn't full, and the "dumpster-diving" didn't work.

Not even sure what you're arguing here.  I said that Ryan did a good job his first go around keeping a pipeline open and that was true. And I said he's done a good job creating a pipeline this time around. Also true.

 

The pipeline certainly took a hit after he left but the 08, 09 and 2010 Twins relied a lot on internally built options from the Ryan era (despite trading Garza and Santana and letting Silva sign elsewhere).  From 08-10, the Twins pitching staff was 8th in WAR in all the majors and most of it was b/c of internal options that Ryan had brought in. 

[iTwins]

Agree 100% Doc.

 

CF needs to be addressed this offseason regardless if the team thinks Hicks can really take over the position in 2015 or not.

 

They're currently playing with house money in Jordan Schafer. They picked up a guy who was running out of chances, and by some miracle, got above average production from him. Going into 2015 expecting him to return to that level once again - despite his career numbers screaming otherwise - is foolish.

The team needs CF depth - it really needs a CF starter, but I can see the logic in not wanting to invest major money into a position that has the best prospect in baseball lined up for it. I don't, however, see the logic in not addressing the position AT ALL because of said prospect. That makes a lot of dangerous assumptions about Buxton - I think it's wise to hedge your bets and pick up some depth.

 

If Hicks takes off, Schafer proves revitalized and Buxton has a breakout year, you know what you call that? A good problem to have. I'd rather have problems like that than be throwing various short stops out in CF and holding our breath.

[South Dakota Tom]

If we got an established CF, I fear this conversation would turn into the same one we're having about relief pitching and potential young starters - that they have now blocked the progression of the next winning team. At some point, you have to go one way or the other - either take a chance on youngsters (while not blocking anyone who rises to the position) or keep signing mid-level talent to make us slightly more competitive now.

 

I guess it's also true that (at least theoretically) both can be accomplished. You pencil in the guys you think are the long-term solution and their timetable, and you simultaneously fill the roster with short-term players who you would gladly waive or trade if said youngster proves ready.

 

So what's the domino effect? Sign someone, then keep Schafer and Hicks and dump Nunez, in order to maximize flexibility in the OF?

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

It's one thing to take a chance on a player like Hicks.  It's another to repeatedly go in with no alternatives.

[gunnarthor]

What is Molitor's plans on Schafer?  In a SSS, his CF defense graded out positively (as opposed to his LF defense).  He's a former top prospect, still in his prime.  Players in Atlanta were upset that he was traded and they felt that Upton should've been moved instead.  A few Atlanta fan sites complained that Schafer just needed consistent playing time.  

 

I don't really care if Schafer starts in CF or Santana.  But I really don't want Hicks on the ML roster out of ST.  He needs to hit more in AAA.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

So the elephant in the room is this: how long before the Twins play a game with Torii Hunter in CF?

[Mike Sixel]

So the elephant in the room is this: how long before the Twins play a game with Torii Hunter in CF?

 

Late May.....with I HAVE NO IDEA in RF.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I could see late May - facing a tough lefty, Hicks has hit 0 for his last 15 ... So Hunter in CF, Arcia in RF and Nuñez in LF.

 

Vomit.

 

Or... Maybe 'Shuga Shane' gets called up. Or... maybe they add another, different, outfielder and send Hicks down to AAA?

[TheLeviathan]

So the elephant in the room is this: how long before the Twins play a game with Torii Hunter in CF?

 

After last year I'm wondering if Dougie M. or Denny Hocking are able to break in an OF glove.  We don't feel that much different this year from that abysmal decision.

[ashbury]

with I HAVE NO IDEA in RF.

At last, the missing Abbott and Costello player?

[ashbury]

So the elephant in the room is this: how long before the Twins play a game with Torii Hunter in CF?

Put me down for April 28 in this pool.  What's the prize?

[Monkeypaws]

I would roll with Santana in CF and Escobar at SS. Worked pretty well last season, and both are young guys who could improve incrementally this season.

[D. Hocking]

After last year I'm wondering if Dougie M. or Denny Hocking are able to break in an OF glove.  We don't feel that much different this year from that abysmal decision.

 

I am not supposed to say anything, but there is going to be a BIG announcement at Twinsfest.  Sadly, it will make it more difficult for me to post in the game threads.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am not supposed to say anything, but there is going to be a BIG announcement at Twinsfest.  Sadly, it will make it more difficult for me to post in the game threads.

Difficult -- but not impossible!

 

http://twitter.com/cle_ohsports/status/549319671837900800

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Put me down for April 28 in this pool.  What's the prize?

Hmm.  I could offer a nice stack of worthless cardboard awesome baseball cards to the winner...

[ashbury]

My wife already questions the quantity of awesome baseball cards worthless cardboard on our garage shelves.  So... I'm in.

[D. Hocking]

Some pieces of cardboard are priceless (Joe and I are deciding who will keep 7).

 

 

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/denny_hocking_autograph.jpg).