MLB Trade Rumors - Tomas

[lightfoot789]

If we get excited over players like Cespedes who wins HR Derbys but doesn't drive in runs or possess a super high OBP, or players like Tomas who has yet to prove himself against MLB caliber pitching (long term) and plays poor defense: 

 

Why don't we get excited over players in our own system who possibly hit further and have the same make up?  Adam Brett Walker is arguably a better defender than Tomas and will be able to do what he does within a year.  Why would you have spent 60+ million dollars on a player you could spend $500,000 on with team control?  Neither player is proven (fact)!  Is he being Cuban some type of positive omen that is worth that kind of money?  Glad we didn't get him.  Would rather get Kemp.  BTW - Congrats to Walker on being named Organizational All Star for 2nd year in a row.  Best power in the minors not named Sano - Gallo or Bryant.

[ashbury]

Adam Brett Walker is arguably a better defender than Tomas and will be able to do what he does within a year.  Why would you have spent 60+ million dollars on a player you could spend $500,000 on with team control?  Neither player is proven (fact)!

Given an either/or choice like this, I'll steal a page from Chief and say "Yes".

 

And then in a couple of years, if  (not necessarily when) there is a logjam of talent at that position, you can trade from strength to address a need at that time.

 

Talent is worth having in the reservoir, as well as in the pipeline.  I'd feel differently (about how to add to the reservoir) if there wasn't significant slack in the annual payroll.

 

And I'm not saying to spend just for the sake of spending.  If the Twins FO feels that Tomas won't be tradeable halfway into the kind of contract necessary to sign him, because the talent level isn't there, then I'm fine with not going after him. Talent evaluation is paramount.

[Mike Sixel]

Shocker.

[PseudoSABR]

If the Twins were going to spend money on a positional player, this was the guy.  The cost wasn't prohibitive; hopefully they apply it elsewhere. 

[old nurse]

Still think he is Viciedo lite. I also think he was a better option than what the Twins have ready for the OF.

[jokin]

If the Twins were going to spend money on a positional player, this was the guy.  The cost wasn't prohibitive; hopefully they apply it elsewhere. 

 

Where? The top OF FAs left without giving up a draft pick are Hunter, Rios and Rasmus,  all are flawed.  Hunter is likely the only one they are even seriously considering. 

 

If it means they intend to use that money towards one of the top SP, that's great, but it seems unlikely that they could, or would want to close a deal like that.  Which then means, maybe, they could operate like last offseason, and look to go after a couple of second or third-tier SPs.

[DocBauer]

Completely honest here....I'm kinda glad we didn't go down this road.

 

I know perfectly well that we may be kicking ourselves in the arse and banging our head against the wall a year or two from now on this one...but I just don't think we will be.

 

Scouting reports are only opinion. I don't care if it's a USA all-American HS or college player or a top Central-South-American-Australian-PR-European-Cuban prospect scouting report, it's still conjecture. I was very intrigued by Tomas, was admittedly a bit hopefull as well. But the more reports I read, the more I became worried about pure power vs no hit, limited contact and questionable defense.

 

I don't object to the gamble per se'. Nor do I necessarily object to 6 years or $66M total. It's the combination of factors that concern me. That much money, for that many years, on a player that MIGHT prove to be one-dimensional, and by most reports comes up short of his predecessors...I guess I'd rather pass and concentrate on the prospects I have, and work with the FA and trade market presented before me.

[Mike Sixel]

Which OF prospects do they have for next year?

[brvama]

Which OF prospects do they have for next year?

To answer your question - Rosario. But I think The point is that Tomas is not proven that he'd slot into a starting role immediately. Good chance he'd need time in the minors for a bit. Or he could start out, but it's unknown. Plus having prospects near with potentially the same skill set why go out after a Tomas when we aren't at that point to consider a run this year. IMHO it makes more sense to focus on other needs to set up for 2016.

[lightfoot789]

Agreed

[Mike Sixel]

Tomas is 22.....not 30. He is not some short term answer. And what if there are no FA OF next year you like, like this year?

[old nurse]

Tomas is 22.....not 30. He is not some short term answer. And what if there are no FA OF next year you like, like this year?

Many of us might not mind the condition where your age went down a year rather than up, but Tomas just turned 24

[lightfoot789]

And Walker just turned 23 last month.  He will be every bit as good as Tomas by the time he is 24 and a lot less costly.  He's a better athlete too - than Tomas.  Not many 6'5 230 lb athletes out there with an 80+% stolen base rate as a professional either.  Not a great OBP guy but he still seems to score more than everyone else he plays with.  And the Run production is second to none in the Twins minor league system including the big dogs. 

 

In short - Walker is worth the wait and gamble.  Don't get stuck with a contract you can't trade or move when needed.  Walker averages 33 home runs a season (162 games) over his minor league career and 110 RBIs.  September Call Up and 2016 regular IMO

[nicksaviking]

If the fear of the unknown is too unbearable, then we might as well shut the door on all international signings right now.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

If the fear of the unknown is too unbearable, then we might as well shut the door on all international signings right now.

I think they knew too much - or had enough info that pointed to Tomas as being not worth the hype that they were not interested in taking this specific risk.

 

Decisions to not sign or offer a competitve bid for these players has become a cumulative indictment of the Twins front office. It's hard to blame people for thinking that, and at times I lean that way too. 

 

In my opinion, the Twins didn't look at Tomas and think that they had more reason to sign him because they didn't sign Abreu, Puig, Cespedes or Rusney Castillo. I think they looked at Tomas and thought, what would it cost to sign him, and is it worth it to the team to spend it on him.

 

With Tomas, I think the Diamondbacks are getting a slightly older version of Oswaldo Arcia - a Corner outfielder with power and a questionable glove.

[old nurse]

If the fear of the unknown is too unbearable, then we might as well shut the door on all international signings right now.

68 million over the last 7  years netted Santana, Arcia, Vargas, with the promise of Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Thorpe Diaz, et al. There may be 20 that did not work out, but there return.

[ashbury]

In my opinion, the Twins didn't look at Tomas and think that they had more reason to sign him because they didn't sign Abreu, Puig, Cespedes or Rusney Castillo. .

I agree you shouldn't sign a guy just as a "make up" for a previous mistake.  You sign him because the previous mistake (if such it be) caused you to rethink your reasoning.

[nicksaviking]

68 million over the last 7  years netted Santana, Arcia, Vargas, with the promise of Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Thorpe Diaz, et al. There may be 20 that did not work out, but there return.

 

Good moves, and my comment was not so much an indictment on the team as much as it is all the posts questioning Thomas' abilities.

 

The detracting comments regarding Cubans should probably be put on hold until they prove to not be worth the investment.  People must have short memories because folks defending the Twins lack of Cuban interest  were saying just as negative things about Abreu last year and Puig the year before.  Among the reasons people were saying the Twins shouldn't sign Abreu last year was that his bat speed was too slow and he'd never make enough contact.

[old nurse]

Many Cubans have come over. For every Abrue there is a Miranda. The thing is the price has gone up. The Sox won their gamble, the Yankees did not. Miranda's Cuban statistics were as good as Abrue's. That is why it is hard to put any faith in Cuban statisics. Chapman has been a flamethrower to come out of Cuba. You do not know if they will be able to adjust to the speed.

[nicksaviking]

Many Cubans have come over. For every Abrue there is a Miranda. The thing is the price has gone up. The Sox won their gamble, the Yankees did not. Miranda's Cuban statistics were as good as Abrue's. That is why it is hard to put any faith in Cuban statisics. Chapman has been a flamethrower to come out of Cuba. You do not know if they will be able to adjust to the speed.

 

I'd say for every three Abreus there is a Miranda.  Most of the Cubans who haven't panned out were not highly acclaimed and were unknown to many.  Miranda signed nearly a decade ago and even then, a $2 million investment by the Yankees wasn't significant. 

 

The jury is still out on most of these guys, but so far the success rate of the Cuban imports looks to clearly be better than any other avenue for securing talent. You have to pay for it, but if you like safe (and the Twins surely do) few of these guys have been complete busts. At least not the ones that have a price tag of much significance.

[Mike Sixel]

If you don't play, you don't win. How is staying out of the market working? 4 years, so far, of losing a lot.

[Linus]

If you don't play, you don't win. How is staying out of the market working? 4 years, so far, of losing a lot.

So now we know why the twins have been losing. Good to know.

[raindog]

And Walker just turned 23 last month. He will be every bit as good as Tomas by the time he is 24 and a lot less costly. He's a better athlete too - than Tomas. Not many 6'5 230 lb athletes out there with an 80+% stolen base rate as a professional either. Not a great OBP guy but he still seems to score more than everyone else he plays with. And the Run production is second to none in the Twins minor league system including the big dogs.

 

In short - Walker is worth the wait and gamble. Don't get stuck with a contract you can't trade or move when needed. Walker averages 33 home runs a season (162 games) over his minor league career and 110 RBIs. September Call Up and 2016 regular IMO

Since when is Adam Walker an elite prospect? The guy doesn't make enough contact.

 

I'd love to see a guy with that much power and talent pan out, but it's a long shot. He's not someone you can count on.

[Mike Sixel]

So now we know why the twins have been losing. Good to know.

What?

[KGB]

Twins spent the 6th most money in free agency last year - how did that work out for us?

[JB_Iowa]

Twins spent the 6th most money in free agency last year - how did that work out for us?

 

Well, Hughes worked out pretty well and there is still hope for Nolasco.

 

You win some, you lose some.  But if you never try, you always lose.

[Craig Arko]

Is this now a pithy quotes thread?

 

 

If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving

an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life

without even considering if there are men on base.

 

-- Dave Barry

[glunn]

Moderator note - let's keep this civil.

[Major League Ready]

I liked this prospect in concept because the contract does not extend beyond the player's prime years. However, I can't fault the FO given the scouting report. 

 

The other concept that surfaced here is that it is always good to stockpile talent.  Of course, that is true until you sign a one that is a bust.  Nishioka is not the first international player to bust.  There is always another prospect (opportunity) around the corner but when you choose poorly, you live with it for 6 years in this case. 

 

It's also hard to bid against a team that just increased their TV revenue by $50M/yr. 

[KGB]

Why no hope for Meyers and May's?  Gibson was in the same position last year and out performed 2 out of the 3 free agent signings?  The Twins are never going to buy their into first place.  Sometimes the best way to try and giving your own players a chance.