Article: The Best Defensive Outfielders in Free Agency

[Nick Nelson]

It's been clear for some time now: the Twins need to find themselves a left fielder during the offseason.

 

What should they be looking for in a prospective pickup at this position? Well, that also seems fairly clear. Considering that they fielded the worst defensive outfield in baseball this year, the Twins should really be seeking a player who can cover ground and provide some much-needed help for the pitching staff.

 

Today, we'll take a look at some outfielders available on the free agent market who are known for their fielding chops.Although I'm not a huge fan of any defensive metrics, UZR is generally considered to be the most accurate measure over a large sample, so I've listed each player's career average per 150 games (in essence, this is meant to convey the number of runs saved defensively per season).

 

For reference, Twins left fielders collectively posted a -14.7 UZR/150 mark in 2014. Yuck.

 

Nyjer Morgan

Age: 34

B/T: L/L

Career UZR/150: 15.7

 

Morgan has been a defensive wizard. His 15.7 UZR/150 mark is off-the-charts good, and he has proven to be a major asset at all three outfield spots. He has also been a solid hitter for the most part and and an aggressive threat on the basepaths. Unfortunately, he's in his mid-30s and doesn't have much of a recent MLB track record; he was bad in 2012, spent the 2013 season playing in Japan, and missed most of 2014 with a knee injury. It's fair to wonder what "Tony Plush" is capable of at this point, though he'd be awfully intriguing on a minor-league deal.

 

Chris Denorfia

Age: 34

B/T: R/R

UZR/150: 6.7

 

Denorfia has spent years reliably patrolling the spacious outfield at Petco Park, and has usually managed to put up solid offensive numbers in the notoriously hitter-hampering yard, though he's coming off his worst season at the plate. He's a .292 career hitter with a .789 OPS against left-handed pitchers, and would be interesting as a potential platoon partner for Jordan Schafer.

 

Colby Rasmus

Age: 28

B/T: L/L

UZR/150: -0.3

 

Don't be fooled by that sub par overall UZR number; Rasmus has spent nearly his entire career playing center field. As an average defender there, he figures to be well above average in a corner, if he's willing to make that transition. In some ways, Rasmus is very appealing, as he has averaged about 20 homers in six MLB seasons and is the youngest player on this list. On the other hand, those factors will probably make him fairly expensive and he has posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage in three of the last four years, with K-rates that alarmingly continue to climb.

 

Endy Chavez

Age: 36

B/T: L/L

Career UZR/150: 7.5

 

Like Rasmus, Chavez's UZR total understates his ability because he's spent so much time playing center field. In the corners he has been nothing short of spectacular, though his rates have sagged in the past couple years as he's aged into his late 30s. The Mariners still liked his defense enough to get him into 177 games in those two seasons, despite a .650 OPS, but he can't really be viewed as a candidate to start at this point.

 

Emilio Bonifacio

Age: 29

B/T: S/R

UZR/150: 3.1

 

The 29-year-old has carved out a nice career as a glove-first utility man, and he does his best work in the outfield corners, but he doesn't bring enough with the bat to profile as a starter. He has posted an OPS above .700 only once in his career.

 

Alex Rios

Age: 33

B/T: R/R

UZR/150: 5.5

 

Rios has been so-so in center but excellent in right field. He hasn't played much in left but there's no reason to think he couldn't. He is known for his cannon arm, and brings more with the stick than most players listed here. He is also an excellent base stealer and the Twins would probably welcome more speed to the lineup. The only question is whether they're willing to commit millions over multiple years to an inconsistent player in his mid-30s.

 

Nori Aoki

Age: 32

B/T: L/R

UZR/150: 3.6

 

Aoki has mostly played right field, where he rates very well, but he would seemingly be a fit in left. He is a disciplined hitter without much pop, sporting a .287/.353/.387 slash line in three MLB seasons with the Brewers and Royals. He is said to be seeking a three-year deal.

 

SUMMARY

 

Out of the players on this list, we can probably rule out Morgan, Chavez and Bonifacio, at least as starting options. They just don't hit enough to anchor a corner outfield spot. Denorfia would be fairly cheap and his righty bat would complement Schafer well. If the Twins are looking to make a more significant splash, then Rasmus, Rios and Aoki are all worth a long look.

 

Who appeals to you most out of this group? Or would you prefer to look elsewhere, like a trade or international signing?

 

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[stringer bell]

Especially with Eddie Rosario close, I like the right handed hitters. Denorfia would be a pretty valuable and versatile three-position OF, with a good glove. Rios would be pricier and would be a regular. He only hit four homers last year, in HR friendly Texas. The Twins' vacancy is in LF and Rios has only played a few innings there, none recently. Both guys are past 30 and shouldn't be signed long-term, but could be helpful in 2015

Edited November 12, 2014 by stringer bell

[zwiefz]

I agree that the Twins need to find an outfielder on a stop gap contract(1-2 years) until Buxton(hopefully) arrives.  But I disagree with the idea that they need to focus on someone for left field especially.  It is assumed that center will be manned by a Hicks/Shafer platoon.  But if you can get a guy through free agency or trade who has a bat and a glove(say Rasmus) why couldn't they play center with the Hicks/Shafer platoon shifting to left.  They would provide the same offense regardless of where they play, would be above average defensively for left fielders, would provide the center fielder the ability to cheat towards right to help Arcia, and lets be honest-if Hicks has a future with the team(and that is a HUGE if) it is going to be in a corner spot when Buxton comes up.  Might as well get him adjusted to it now.

 

So my answer is that I want the Twins to find the best outfielder they can, regardless of whether they have played center or a corner spot in the past.  Hicks and Shafer showed potential at the end of the season, but not enough to say that they are entrenched in center field for the next season or two.

[stringer bell]

I

I agree that the Twins need to find an outfielder on a stop gap contract(1-2 years) until Buxton(hopefully) arrives.  But I disagree with the idea that they need to focus on someone for left field especially.  It is assumed that center will be manned by a Hicks/Shafer platoon.  But if you can get a guy through free agency or trade who has a bat and a glove(say Rasmus) why couldn't they play center with the Hicks/Shafer platoon shifting to left.  They would provide the same offense regardless of where they play, would be above average defensively for left fielders, would provide the center fielder the ability to cheat towards right to help Arcia, and lets be honest-if Hicks has a future with the team(and that is a HUGE if) it is going to be in a corner spot when Buxton comes up.  Might as well get him adjusted to it now.

 

So my answer is that I want the Twins to find the best outfielder they can, regardless of whether they have played center or a corner spot in the past.  Hicks and Shafer showed potential at the end of the season, but not enough to say that they are entrenched in center field for the next season or two.

I was with you until the last paragraph. I don't think Hicks "showed potential" with a .658 OPS in September. He hasn't hit above AA yet and needs substantial time at Triple A. Schafer did well, but has a track record which invites skepticism about his future. Schafer does have the elite tool of base-stealing and there is no prospect status to protect. Edited November 12, 2014 by stringer bell

[TheLeviathan]

Go for Rasmus - give him a 1 or 2 year deal and overpay in dollars to land the upside.  He's not going to want a long-term deal right now so he fits perfectly with what we need.

[Nick Nelson]

It is assumed that center will be manned by a Hicks/Shafer platoon.  But if you can get a guy through free agency or trade who has a bat and a glove(say Rasmus) why couldn't they play center with the Hicks/Shafer platoon shifting to left.  

 

Rasmus is really the only FA center fielder worth mentioning but yes, that is a point in his favor. You could go with him in CF next year then shift him to left once Buxton arrives.

[Nick Nelson]

I think someone might give Rasmus three years. He's only 28, and while he hasn't quite lived up to his elite prospect hype he's been a productive center fielder. 

 

I'd be a little nervous about giving him that long a deal with his increasing whiffs, not to mention the presence of Rosario and others in the system. 

[glunn]

My preference would be the Cuban guy, Yasmany Tomas if the Twins' scouts like him.  He's risky, but some of the Cuban players have surprised to the upside and I think that his signing would boost ticket sales, especially if he pans out.  

 

I would also suggest that TR call Arcia and offer him incentives to come to spring training a couple of weeks early to work on his defense.  I don't know what this might cost, but it would be pocket change compared with any of the free agents.

[Bark's Lounge]

Signing Rasmus would only be a mistake. He is not adept at hitting. Whether it be issues with his hitting coaches or having his dad instruct him, he is way too much drama. I'd rather role with what we have.

 

Signing Rasmus will probably end in disaster.

Edited November 12, 2014 by Bark's Lounge

[Bark's Lounge]

...and sure playing at Target Field, he will hit 13 HR's and have an OPS below .700 next season. Obviously, I am not a big fan. Maybe it is our best bet to fill in the cracks with a combo of Hicks, Schafer, Santana and Rosario. Giving Rasmus a 2-3 year deal makes me want to puke. I have actually puked on myself because of this concept and my shirt is dirty and needs to be washed.

[Otwins]

Wonder if you could trade Plouffe for a left fielder, Have Escobar play 3B until Sano is ready? None of free agents get me too excited

[Major League Ready]

I would hope that Arcia has enough desire to improve that it would not require financial compensation to convince him to show up early and work on defense.  I would also like to see him show up 20 pounds lighter. 

[DocBauer]

Rasmus on a 1yr, possibly 2, I'm ok with. He can run, has power and can play defense. Unless we overpay for him, even hitting lower than expected/hoped he doesn't kill and can actually contribute. But his best fit is LF.

 

Rios is the guy I like here. He's just young enough, always been a good athlete, and has a previous history to indicate a bounce back season is possible. 1 yr at $5M-ish or a 1 yr with a possible option year filled with the traditional raises and incentives? Rios in LF should be solid to good defensively with a RF arm. 75% of his old self he'd hit .250-.260 with double digit HR and SB with high 20, low 30 doubles. All of this would far outshine anything we got from LF last year, offensively or defensively. (All due respect to Schafer's month with the Twins)

[iTwins]

I'm on board with either Rasmus or Aoki - but no longer than 2 years for either of them. You may have to overpay on AAV to go that short term, but I think it'd be worth paying now to have better roster freedom later. I like the defense either would bring to the team and their ability to flex to all 3 OF spots is a bonus. They could swap to a 4th OF role at the end of their deal if Rosario or Plouffe are ready to be moved - if not, then you still have a competent OF to bridge the gap for that last year.

 

After 2 years, the Twins OF situation could be durastically different (Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, Arcia, Plouffe(?)) so I wouldn't want to lock anyone in past that point.

[tobi0040]

My first choice would be Rasmus on a 2-3 year deal.  Keep him in CF now and stablize the position, then move him to a corner when Buxton arrives.  Career .751 OPS, good defender, still young.  Not going to break the bank.  The nice thing is it would move HIcks to a corner now, where he will need to be if he has a future here.

 

The issue is whether or not he would do the deal knowing he would go to a corner. If he wants to prove his worth, he may want to do it in CF and hit it big as a center fielder.  So the only shot there may be a one year deal.

 

Outside of him, I didn't realize Rios is a good defender still.  His dWAR on baseball reference tells a different story, -2 over the last three years.  But that is the issue with these metrics, our scouting department will probably have to look at tape.

 

I do have to say that the concerning thing to me is that we allegedly reached out to Torii Hunter.  So the Twins may not be on the same page with needing a defensive upgrade in the OF.

Edited November 12, 2014 by tobi0040

[Lakeside]

I'm for Rosario breaking camp in LF next year.  A Hicks/Schaeffer platoon in CF and Arcia in right.

 

I'm of the opinion that it would be difficult to get any of the quality FAs who fit (Denofrio, Rasmus, Aoki, Rios) on a one-year deal and I'm not sure, if we believe Buxton is the future, why we would want any of them for more than one year.

 

The Rosaria scenario give us Right hand hitting in Suzuki, Dozier, Plouffe, and Vargas and left hand hitting with Vargas, Mauer, Rosario, and Arcia.  Throw in some speed in the at-bats of Santana, Schaeffer, Hicks, Rosario, and Dozier I think we can score some runs.

 

As for outfield defense we still have a liabiltiy in Arcia but here's what the Scouting Report on Rosario is, "He is a very good outfielder with a very strong arm.  He would make for a terrific left-fielder".

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd probably sign Rasmus to man CF for a season personally. I'd be fine with him in LF too, but I don't want to hand CF to Schaffer/Hicks.

 

That said, he's the only FA on this list remotely worth interest. I think the best way to handle LF is to look at a trade. There's no sure thing in the pipeline for that position right now, so getting a productive player on a bad (expensive) contract for 2-4 years is what I think is the best option. I really think Kemp should be a target ,but I'm guessing he's out of their price range.

[zwiefz]

II was with you until the last paragraph. I don't think Hicks "showed potential" with a .658 OPS in September. He hasn't hit above AA yet and needs substantial time at Triple A. Schafer did well, but has a track record which invites skepticism about his future. Schafer does have the elite tool of base-stealing and there is no prospect status to protect.

 

Stringer- let me rephrase my first post, you're right: potential is too strong a word. How about this: hicks looked better in September than earlier in the season( which wasn't hard considering how low the bar was)

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Some things that may shakes themselves out over the next few months:

 

If Pablo Sandoval signs with a team other than the Giants, maybe the Giants would inquire on Plouffe.

 

Cuddyer signing with the Mets was a mild surprise given the Qualifying offer, but that means the Mets have more prospects left over to use in a trade for a SS - maybe there's a fit for Escobar, Polanco, Santana (or even Nuñez) to go to NY in exchange for something. Probably not OF help...

 

There will be lots of teams looking to deal, still curious about Saunders from Seattle, Burjos from St. Louis, and maybe even one of the Dodgers outfielders.

 

My personal wish list hasn't changed much since the middle of last year - Yasmany Tomas, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus would be my first three choices of free agents. Denorfia, Aoki, and Rios would probably be upgrades from 2014, but that's not exactly a ringing endorsement.   

[Dantes929]

I really like the idea of Denorfia platooning with Schaefer in left until Rosario is ready.    HIcks in center, Santana at shortstop with Escobar utility.   If Hicks fails then Santana back in center until Buxton is ready.   This just makes sense every which way but in particular better outfield defense.   Whichever fo Denorfia or Schaefer do not start can be late inning replacement for Arcia.  Denorfia old enough not to block guys like Rosario.

[Brandon]

Denorfia does make sense as does Rios or Aoki on reasonable 2 year deals.  If we have to go longer than that and pay more we may as well trade for a Los Angeles OF.

[tobi0040]

Denorfia does make sense as does Rios or Aoki on reasonable 2 year deals.  If we have to go longer than that and pay more we may as well trade for a Los Angeles OF.

 

I think the lower you go down on that list, the closer the production will be to Eddie Rosario.

 

Aoki for example had a .726 OPS in 2013 and .710 in 2014.  He will be 33.  I am guessing at least defensively Eddie Rosario would be better.  He is a 23 year old that would be a CF in almost every other system out there.  He has to play LF better than Aoki.  I view Rosario's potential as a better bat than an OPS in the low 700's.

 

Last year was really a throw away for Eddie, before anyone quotes his .672 OPS in AA.  Looking at his history in the 800-900 range, making the PR WBC team as a 21 year old, etc.

[TheLeviathan]

I think someone might give Rasmus three years. He's only 28, and while he hasn't quite lived up to his elite prospect hype he's been a productive center fielder. 

 

I'd be a little nervous about giving him that long a deal with his increasing whiffs, not to mention the presence of Rosario and others in the system. 

 

I think some teams might be willing to go 3, I wonder if Rasmus is the one that will keep it at 1-2 years as a way to rebuild value.

[mori0189]

I think we stick with what we have.  Rosario may make the roster out of spring training, but if not will probably make the jump half way through the year.  We also have Buxton, who if he shows health and playing well may be up mid seaons and most likely September.  Same with Sano who will then force Plouffe to the outfield or somewhere else.  We then have a huge log-jam and end up having to keep someone off the major league team.  We all know that this team is still rebuilding.  Lets work with the prospects and save the money for another year or get a starter this year.  I think we roll with Hicks, he is the best defensive outfielder on the team presently and he may still end up better then Buxton as far as defense is converned.  I stil think Hicks ends up as our 4th OF when everything is said and done, but who knows. 

[TheLeviathan]

If your scenario is "what if these four things all happen in the best way then we have a logjam" - I'd suggest that your optimism is clouding the view of what is needed.  Good teams don't plan for everything going right.

[mori0189]

But only one of those things has to happen for the problem to occur.  If it was my money I would throw money at someone like Morgan that can be cut when/if anyone gets called up.  Then spend the money on pitching or save it for a couple years when this team may actually be competative and get someone that will actually help this team win.  Not a stop-gap.  But that is just my opinion, and I am an optomist.  So that might cloud my judgement.   

[mori0189]

But only one of those things has to happen for the problem to occur.  If it was my money I would throw money at someone like Morgan that can be cut when/if anyone gets called up.  Then spend the money on pitching or save it for a couple years when this team may actually be competative and get someone that will actually help this team win.  Not a stop-gap.  But that is just my opinion, and I am an optomist.  So that might cloud my judgement.   

I would like to grab Rasmus on a one year deal, but I think someone over pays and goes for more years.  2 @ 9M a year + option.  I wouldn't make that investment, which what we have coming up. 

[TheLeviathan]

I would like to grab Rasmus on a one year deal, but I think someone over pays and goes for more years.  2 @ 9M a year + option.  I wouldn't make that investment, which what we have coming up. 

 

A player like Rasmus can be moved if those other issues force us to open a spot for him.  Buxton's timetable is completely up in the air and likely not a factor this season.  Injuries happen.  Rosario and Hicks shouldn't be banked on.  

 

We need more than one guy in our OF that we can look at and say "you deserve to walk in as a starter."  Right now we have Arcia and he's an outfielder in name only.

[tobi0040]

I think some teams might be willing to go 3, I wonder if Rasmus is the one that will keep it at 1-2 years as a way to rebuild value.

 

This is a good article on Rasmus, very detailed.  They speculate he either goes 1-10 to rebuild value, or it would take at least $10M a year over three years if he went longer term.  I am guessing he has little interest in 3-30 because he has a shot at 4-5 years and $15-18M a year next off-season if his 2015 looks like his 2013.

 

The bad news is he is really the only CF on the market. So my guess is he has very little interest in signing to play a corner.  The CF market will be weak again next year as well....the one year deal may be appealing to him. 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/free-agent-profile-colby-rasmus.html

Edited November 12, 2014 by tobi0040

[sandbun]

They won't do it, but my vote is to move Mauer to LF. Let Pinto or post-surgery Sano take first. Never made sense to me to have an athletic Mauer hold down the easiest position to field.