Article: How Good Are the Twins?

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?645-How-Good-Are-the-Twins

[glunn]

The Twins have been fairly lucky this year in terms of avoiding injuries (other than the total loss of Scott Baker). And there is not a lot of bench depth. I will be happy with some solid, watchable baseball.

[TwinsGuy55422]

I am realistic enough to know that the starting pitching isn't good enough for the Twins to truly contend. However, as mentioned previously, I would definitely take some overall competitive baseball while seeing some progess from guys who will be part of the future of Twins baseball. I think will have a summer of interesting baseball ahead of us.

[travistwinstalk]

Why do you have to throw water on good baseball. who knows if this can continue but can't we just enjoy the good baseball instead of saying they can't do this or do that. Just bothers me that instead of enjoying good baseball we feel the need to be skeptical if it continues just doesn't make sense to me.

[stringer bell]

Short term and long term, the Twins need to rebuild their rotation. It looks like they may have found one starter this year (Diamond), but there are vacancies for several more. The schedule favors the Twins for the remainder of the month. If they can get close to .500 and no one runs away, I suppose they have to hang on to their productive players. If they stay 6+ back and stay well below .500, they have pieces to sell.

[twinswon1991]

This is still a 90+ loss team just like they have been the last 2 years.

[mhanson93]

This is still a 90+ loss team just like they have been the last 2 years.

Agreed, the biggest reason for the "turnaround" is the fact that they are playing other teams that are just as bad as they are. Once they start playing more contenders, reality will return..

[jlovren]

If the pitching goes from a 6 plus ERA to a 4 plus ERA than we could be contending for the AL Central title. That's a huge if, though. This kind of reminds me of 2000. Terrible team, but you see some signs of life from a few young guys and terrible pitching. Let's hope that 2013 reminds us of 2001. I really don't think we are as far away as most people on the site say we are (based on gut feeling)

[JB_Iowa]

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

 

I'm content to watch. If by some chance they can win at that .600 clip, it will make for a more enjoyable summer of watching baseball.

 

BUT -- and this is a huge BUT for me -- I do not want them to be caught up in that "neverland" that THEY thought they were in last summer at the trade deadline.

 

Fortunately there is a lot of time before decisions have to be made. Let's revisit this discussion in another month.

[Steve Penz]

I agree that we should enjoy the good baseball and we have to stay humble per travistwinstalk. Last week Gleeman said our runs/game had gone up by 2 during this successful stretch. Likely that will take a hit when we go back to playing better squads. And, the trade deadline is approaching and moves need to be made. Can anybody say who our pitching staff will be in one year? Please don’t say Gibson like that is a lock. He has been throwing from the mound for one week; there are no guarantees. Even with him, there are still many holes. I think we are still preparing for 2014 and beyond. Randy Bush joined the radio broadcast yesterday for an inning. Talking about his Cubs he said they need to look at every short-term option and looking trading them for long-term options and so they will entertain all discussions on that topic. I hope our team is thinking the same way.

 

One extra comment- Joe Benson’s performance and injury makes me sad. I would very much like to see him get a handle on things, get healthy and turn it around.

[Mike Sixel]

Still a 90 loss team, agreed. They should 100% still be sellers. Howard has a nice blog post this am about this very topic.

[chuchadoro]

Why do you have to throw water on good baseball. who knows if this can continue but can't we just enjoy the good baseball instead of saying they can't do this or do that. Just bothers me that instead of enjoying good baseball we feel the need to be skeptical if it continues just doesn't make sense to me.

Go read a Sid column if you're looking for fellatious drivel.

[TJW]

I haven't run the stats from strength of schedule, but my memory is that the pre-June schedule was not as tough as this year's. They had games against the diamond backs and mariners that were replaced with some tougher teams, like the rangers. In essence, this year's team has done about the same as last year's against a little tougher schedule. While there will be a drop-off, especially after they sell off whatever assets they can around the trade deadline, I think this year's team is a little better than last year's. Morneau and Mauer seem to be healthier, and that takes pressure off of others. If Diamond can mature and stay reasonably solid and they get another pitcher out of Hendricks, Gibson or Waters - then they have two pitchers they can build around.

[bird]

My wish list:

1. The team is NEVER a buyer, and ALWAYS a seller.

2. Selling is for prospects ONLY.

3. Sales happen ONLY when a team will overpay.

4. Every player is ALWAYS on the trading block.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

The Phillies may be a better test of this team--but yes, we always do well during the June interleague schedule (this is last year for that with 2 15 team leagues starting 2013). The lineup shows potential--the pitching staff not much. We need to sell off pieces (my choice Span or Revere and Morneau) and pick up A level pitching prospects to go with Hendrix, Diamond and maybe Gibson in 2014.

[Paul]

"Go read a Sid column if you're looking for fellatious drivel."

 

Not sure if this is a typo or not. But it sure paints an interesting picture. And gave me a nice chuckle that I appreciate.

[Loosey]

My problem with selling is that often the Twins just sell to sell. Use the Denard Span trade talk for example, why trade a very good leadoff hitter and Center Fielder who is under contract for two more seasons and is still young and very much a part of this team's future for some mid-tier prospects they are likely to get in return. The only way the Twins should trade a guy like Span is if his replacement is ready to at the Major League level, and at this point that guy is not ready.

[savvyspy]

My problem with selling is that often the Twins just sell to sell. Use the Denard Span trade talk for example, why trade a very good leadoff hitter and Center Fielder who is under contract for two more seasons and is still young and very much a part of this team's future for some mid-tier prospects they are likely to get in return. The only way the Twins should trade a guy like Span is if his replacement is ready to at the Major League level, and at this point that guy is not ready.

It seems like General Managing 101. Only sell guys who are free agents at the end of the year (Capps) or guys who have value but not close to their salary (Morneau, Mauer) and keep productive guys under team control for reasonable money (Span, Willingham). Unfortunately I never have thought the Twins front office knows anything about what it takes to manage a roster properly. I'm not confident this trade deadline will be much different than the past few. They probably sit on their hands to avoid getting fleeced.

[TwinVike61]

I'm not confident this trade deadline will be much different than the past few. They probably sit on their hands to avoid getting fleeced.

I guess I'd rather have them sit on their hands...with the exception of our Capital C Closer for any potential pitching prospect.

[Nick Nelson]

I don't consider anyone to be off limits, per se, but I am admittedly a little nervous about the front office's ability to bring back sufficient talent in a trade. Dealing away a one-year guy like Capps or Doumit carries little downside, but when you're talking about getting rid of a quality player under contract for multiple years at a reasonable price, the pressure to bring back useful pieces increases dramatically. Considering their talent evaluation in recent years, can we trust the Twins to make a Span trade worthwhile?

[nicksaviking]

It seems like General Managing 101. Only sell guys who are free agents at the end of the year (Capps) or guys who have value but not close to their salary (Morneau, Mauer) and keep productive guys under team control for reasonable money (Span, Willingham). Unfortunately I never have thought the Twins front office knows anything about what it takes to manage a roster properly. I'm not confident this trade deadline will be much different than the past few. They probably sit on their hands to avoid getting fleeced.

Unfortunately you don't get much value back that way. Other clubs wont be giving up any promising youngsters for a rental player, particularly a bullpen rental. They also wont give up much for guys who are under-performing and carry a large contract. If you want to score quality prospects you do have to trade the productive players under team control.

[Nick Nelson]

Why do you have to throw water on good baseball. who knows if this can continue but can't we just enjoy the good baseball instead of saying they can't do this or do that. Just bothers me that instead of enjoying good baseball we feel the need to be skeptical if it continues just doesn't make sense to me.

It's called "analysis" Travis. That's what I do here.

[Mike Sixel]

Nick, we have no choice though. Do you trust them to sit on their hands and rely only on the minors?

[jharaldson]

Unfortunately I never have thought the Twins front office knows anything about what it takes to manage a roster properly. I'm not confident this trade deadline will be much different than the past few. They probably sit on their hands to avoid getting fleeced.

No matter what people think of Terry Ryan you have to admit that he is reasonably skilled at taking a good major league player and trading him away for quality prospects (AJ trade, Knoblauch trade, Milton trade, ect....) I expect that if he does make a trade he will not get fleeced and the players we get will impact the team in coming years.

[Winston Smith]

I'm not real sure about the "good baseball" thing. Most nights it's been which team is worse not which team is good. Lots of bad pitching, baserunning and fielding along with poor hitting. Its just that the last couple weeks the Twins are less worse.

[one_eyed_jack]

This is still a 90+ loss team just like they have been the last 2 years.

---2011 may have felt like it lasted twice as long as most others, but I'm pretty sure it was still only 1 season.

[Thrylos]

I think that every team has peaks and valleys during the season. At this point the Twins are in a peak. Still they are on a pace for 96 losses, so we have to look at the big picture and not focus on this temporal peak. They absolutely have to be sellers at this point and start getting new blood (esp. arms here because 2013 is starting to look fairly futile as well...)

 

On the other hand, here are a cuople of fairly encouraging stats: At this point NOBODY other than middle infielders has an OPS+ of less than 100 and the only RP who allowed more hits than IPs is Swarzak and lots of those hits came on his starts.

 

This indicates that this might be a fairly decent core to build on. But, again, this rotation needs major overhaul to the rhyme of 3 plus pitchers in addition to Hendriks and Diamond in 2013. How do you do that? By trades...

[one_eyed_jack]

"In light of these parallels, fans are now wondering whether the team's current improvement is legitimate or another painful mirage. Fortunately, there are plenty of indications that a similarly dramatic drop-off is not on the horizon."

 

---Yep, that's the question. No reason to think this is the start of the unstoppable second-half freight train a la the 2006 team. But I expect better than the second-half train wreck of 2011.

 

Hopefully we'll see some consistently competent baseball with youngster like Dozier, Diamond and Plouffe showing progress and Mauer and Morneau showing signs of returning to their former greatness.

[Pradesh]

Historically, the reasoning of many posters here regarding "Should He Stay or Should He Go?" leaves a bit to be desired. Most previously asked that Lohse and Pierzynski not let the door smack them in the ass on their way out. Dickey's departure as barely noticed. Some pined for Thome to stay. Many still lament the loss of Gomez, Bartlett,and Ramos, although the latter will likely rebound.. Pavano, up until recently, had surpased expectations, as has Capps.

 

Having signed Santana, Hunter, Cuddy, Kubal and Nathan would have been nice. Wouldn't all of us want to be blessed with a mid-market sized team with a payroll up there with the Yankees?

 

Compared to most other teams, I'd say that the Twins' front office has done a respectful job keeping the team competative this year. And that we'll see more of that competativeness in the last half of the season.

[kemics]

I don't consider anyone to be off limits, per se, but I am admittedly a little nervous about the front office's ability to bring back sufficient talent in a trade. Dealing away a one-year guy like Capps or Doumit carries little downside, but when you're talking about getting rid of a quality player under contract for multiple years at a reasonable price, the pressure to bring back useful pieces increases dramatically. Considering their talent evaluation in recent years, can we trust the Twins to make a Span trade worthwhile?

Agree, somewhat. I think we all knew that pitching would be a problem this season. The bats didn't come around right away and the 6+ era didn't help that. If the twins can muck their way through this season, get away from the Pavano contract, get Baker and Gibson healthy, use this season to build off of success for Diamond, Walters and Hendricks. Use the 1 year guys to get some Bullpen depth in the future. Put the twins in a position to at least be competitive so when The Sanos, and Buxtons are ready in 2014-2015 it pushes them over the top.

 

I despise when teams sell off everything for a guess on a prospect that might materialize in 3 years. The twins have the offense now, they need the pitching. Get to within a few games and make a move.

 

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.