chuchadoro

Nolasco was mediocre in his time in the NL. "Craptacular" (or FatCrapps-tacular if you're so inclined) is probably a more fitting adjective. $11.5m/yr sure can buy you a bunch of white Lambos, though.

Those numbers also look better when you use inaccurate and/or made up ones. Nolasco's ERA+ the last three years is 101, 91, and 84. He put up those numbers in nearly 600 innings in the NL, which someone might have told me once is the weaker of the two leagues. Besides 2013, his only season above 100 was in 2008. Nolasco's career ERA+ coming into this year was 92. But yeah, let's just assume he will be a league average pitcher next year. Counting on Meyer to replicate his minor league stats right out of the gate is setting yourself up for disappointment. May is a wild card and I would be hesitant to assume anything regarding his 2015 season. I agree that you can't use the handful of starts that Milone and May have made for the Twins as projections for 2015. You also shouldn't make rosy projections with little basis in reality as a counterpoint.

Finally there's someone who gets me!

I thought the pelf hashtag would be a dead giveaway that I was lampooning the post I quoted, I guess I was mistaken. This isn't the first time I've had to explain myself (usually to mike because we have similar opinions on the Twins and his sarcasm detector can sometimes be dulled by the argumentative nature of his TD persona). To recap: One overreaction to May's debut, one post mocking said overreaction, and one infrequent poster whose humor doesn't play at TD. #ohjokes,igetjokes!

Yeah, how did May work out for all you geniuses? #hotSidtakes #pelf2015usuckaz

There has been a lot of discussion regarding injuries and individual performances, we should take a look at the Twins' luck on the field. It's a fine coincidence that Jonah Keri wrote about cluster luck in <href=http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-phillies-marlins-rays-giants-trade-deadline-week-2/>"The 30"</a> this week. The Twins rank #11 in MLB in cluster luck, adding an estimated 5.43 runs on offense by bunching hits together and saving 2.65 runs against by spreading hits out (also, you can add the Rays to the list of teams more unfortunate than the Twins). A quick glance at Baseball Reference also shows the Twins as decidedly not unlucky. They are 17-16 in one run games, 4-4 in extra innings, and have a Pythagorean record identical to their actual record. The Twins have the fourth worst run differential in the AL as well as the fourth worst W-L record. Lost seasons for Buxton and Sano could be argued as unlucky but the impact they were going to have on the 2014 team is questionable. I would certainly argue a number of teams have been hit harder by injuries on their MLB rosters. Texas and Tampa have been rocked by injuries. The Braves lost two starters and a reliever to TJ surgery within a few weeks of each other. The Yankees are down their top four SP, three are done for the year. I'm not going to rehash all the ways the Twins have messed the bed, many have been mentioned in this thread and all have been much discussed previously on TD. I will only say the 2014 Twins are not only not unlucky but their MLB team is a total cluster luck. Editor's note: Way to hyperlink, no hyperlink.

All your 30 year old arbitration-eligible pitchers are belong to us!

How about a blog post to codify Twins Opinion Orthodoxy? Those of us who don't agree can stop posting on TD, so as not to offend your delicate sensibilities.

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"Hey, let's give up some good prospects to add a declining singles hitter to man 1st base and pay him $23m/yr through his age 35 season" is something Ben Cherington would never say ever in his life. The only way the Twins could move Mauer would include them picking up a large portion of his contract like an ARod or Prince trade (minus the Soriano/Kinsler-type return). This won't happen because: A. the Pohlads are cheap B. the parochial, provincial portion of the fanbase would revolt C. the return would seem underwhelming to many D. Joe feels at home and his mom always keeps the icebox full of delicious, nutritious Kemps products. I believe he just got his 10 and 5 rights I came to appreciate Mauer again last year as an OBP machine playing a premium position. It's tougher to find a silver lining with a 1st baseman hitting .280 with a .079 ISO eating up 30% of the payroll.

The NL to AL switch should be factored in as well. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/sports/baseball/14score.html?fta=y&_r=0 The study was from 2000-2005 and there is also a SSS alert in dealing with 57 FA pitchers but the point remains that the AL is undoubtedly the tougher league on pitchers. The 29 pitchers who switched to the NL from the AL saw their ERA+ go from 97 to 110. The 28 pitchers who made the opposite move saw their ERA+ decrease from 113 to 100. Basically, an average AL starter becomes an above average NL starter and an above average NL starter becomes an average AL starter. The bad news is Nolasco was a below average NL starter judging by his career ERA+ of 92. I don't think the league switch is entirely responsible for his horrid ERA+ of 66 in 2014 but is certainly a significant factor. FIP is kinder to Nolasco but his FIP has consistently been better than his ERA throughout his career. Nolasco will get better but don't hold your breath waiting for a repeat of his 2013 season. He's a back of the rotation guy who is better at fooling Twins fans into believing their team is willing to spend than he is fooling professional hitters.

I think a Trevor May/Young Beedah duo would have a floor of DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince and a ceiling of Eric B and Rakim. You can't pass that up.

I seem to go with a musical theme: Honky Tonkin No Limit Dozier MC Hammer, Hammer Time, Please Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em Chick Correa Perkins - Pony Boy Mauer - James Loney (ok, not strictly a musical theme)

That extended shot of a glum Gardy after the Hicks K was both sad and hilarious.

"I was in some situations where I did not have some success and ended up in the minor leagues." Beautifully understated comment by Vance regarding his 2013 performance. Yup, Worley's awful season was due to circumstances beyond his control and not because he was the suckiest suck that ever sucked.