Article: How Good Are the Twins?

[Nick Nelson]

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.

That would be awesome. I'm just not sure they have the pitching to pull it off.

[jokin]

Agree, somewhat. I think we all knew that pitching would be a problem this season. The bats didn't come around right away and the 6+ era didn't help that. If the twins can muck their way through this season, get away from the Pavano contract, get Baker and Gibson healthy, use this season to build off of success for Diamond, Walters and Hendricks. Use the 1 year guys to get some Bullpen depth in the future. Put the twins in a position to at least be competitive so when The Sanos, and Buxtons are ready in 2014-2015 it pushes them over the top.

 

I despise when teams sell off everything for a guess on a prospect that might materialize in 3 years. The twins have the offense now, they need the pitching. Get to within a few games and make a move.

 

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.

 

1) Scott Baker- Probably less than 50-50 that Baker comes back: 1)healthy, 2)as effective previously when healthy AND 3) still in a Twins uniform.

2) Kyle Gibson- Probably comes back healthy but it usually takes at least 1.5 years of playing to begin to return to previous level of effectiveness.

3) Scott Diamond- Compelling story about his success, but need more than 7 starts to demonstrate proven level of success.

4) PJ Walters- Less compelling story about his success.

5) Liam Hendricks- Non-compelling story about his success. He had an ERA of 9.00 on his first tour, AAA numbers outstanding, he'll figure it out sooner or later.

6) The Sanos- Wish there were two. Still learning to hit a breaking ball and field a ground ball. By 2015 when he's 22, we'll see how different his numbers are from Hicks.

7) Byron Buxton- Tabula rasa.

 

8) Your prediction is possible but maybe not desirable if the Twins repeat last year's Buyer?/Seller? fiasco. It is important to note that the easier part of the schedule ends this weekend. Counting the next two series, the combined records of the Twins opposition since May 16 is 187-233, that's playing at a .445 clip. Upcoming, the records of the teams the Twins play into the ASB is 184-173, a more respectable .515 rate.

[James Richter]

This indicates that this might be a fairly decent core to build on. But, again, this rotation needs major overhaul to the rhyme of 3 plus pitchers in addition to Hendriks and Diamond in 2013. How do you do that? By trades...

Shedding the salaries of Pavano, Liriano, Baker and Marquis saves the Twins $23.5M. There are an abundance of plus pitchers available on the FA market this offseason. Could 2 of those pitchers be signed for $10-12M each? Absolutely. Unfortunately, the Twins are stuck with Blackburn, but with good 2nd halves from Diamond and Hendriks 4 of the 5 rotation spots could be solid. Gibson will be working his way back in the event of Blackburn falling apart. League average lineup, decent rotation, good bullpen, crappy division - would they really be out of it next year?

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins largest FA signing ever is Willingham for $21MM. They shed salary this year, and are likely to see a decline in attendance. You really think they'll sign two front line starters next year?

[CDog]

1) Scott Baker- Probably less than 50-50 that Baker comes back: 1)healthy, 2)as effective previously when healthy AND 3) still in a Twins uniform.

2) Kyle Gibson- Probably comes back healthy but it usually takes at least 1.5 years of playing to begin to return to previous level of effectiveness.

1) My feeling is that all of those is WELL less than 50-50 based mostly on the third condition. With the uncertainty and the timing, I feel like it would be very hard for them to pick up the option. Once the option isn't picked up--and this is based on nothing but feeling--it seems unlikely/uncommon that someone will then sign with the team that did the non-picking-up of the option.

 

2) I've poked a very very little bit to try to get facts rather than feelings about when guys get back to full strength (or close) after TJ surgery. I've never gotten far enough to feel like I have a good sense of it. Anyone have anything other than anecdotal evidence? There was recently some thread(s) here that even linked to some information about how common the surgery has gotten, and I think that even commented on how successful it was from a "come backs to pitch" perspective, but I don't think it got into the timing aspect. That Gibson will have 17 months from surgery to the actual season starting next year has been reason for optimism for me, but I don't know if it actually should be or if that's just hopes and dreams.

[James Richter]

It is important to note that the easier part of the schedule ends this weekend. Counting the next two series, the combined records of the Twins opposition since May 16 is 187-233, that's playing at a .445 clip. Upcoming, the records of the teams the Twins play into the ASB is 184-173, a more respectable .515 rate.

Texas Rangers (last 3 games before the ASB): 35-26 (.574)

Other teams after this weekend (17 games): 149-147 (.503). And even though the Pirates are 5 games over .500, they've got a -17 run differential. So, sure, the schedule is getting tougher, but it's still not tough.

[James Richter]

The Twins largest FA signing ever is Willingham for $21MM. They shed salary this year, and are likely to see a decline in attendance. You really think they'll sign two front line starters next year?

They will if they don't want to see a decline in attendance again next year.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.

Thanks for the chuckle...just checked the Twins schedule...last 7 games before the ASB are Tigers (4) and Texas (3). Texas is simply the best team in MLB right now and I expect Tigers just about ready to turn it around...if Twins win 2 of those 7 I will be shocked.

[jokin]

Texas Rangers (last 3 games before the ASB): 35-26 (.574)

Other teams after this weekend (17 games): 149-147 (.503). And even though the Pirates are 5 games over .500, they've got a -17 run differential. So, sure, the schedule is getting tougher, but it's still not tough.

Agreed, but in this case, "tough" is a relative term for a team performing like the Twins, who have a -67 run differential. Even with their recent awakening from the early-season slumbers, they are still the worst team in the AL, playing at a .407 pace. They are 9th in the AL in OPS and are in last place in AL pitching stats in virtually every category (except in BB, where they are in first place in fewest walks allowed--- a hearty hoo-yah to pitch-to-contact!).

[jokin]

Thanks for the chuckle...just checked the Twins schedule...last 7 games before the ASB are Tigers (4) and Texas (3). Texas is simply the best team in MLB right now and I expect Tigers just about ready to turn it around...if Twins win 2 of those 7 I will be shocked.

Sadly, that sounds about right, the Tigers are due for a run here as they just got Jackson back and their team power numbers are climbing rapidly, but I disagree- 2-5 won't be shocking, just a strong close for a team "out there battling" going into the break.

[Mike Sixel]

james, you base that on how the Pohlads and Ryan have acted in the past, or do you think they are changed people?

[jokin]

james, you base that on how the Pohlads and Ryan have acted in the past, or do you think they are changed people?

Not sure how much change occurred and Ryan wasn't directly involved with the club during the transition to the new park, but, the Pohlads did expand the payroll once the stadium was approved and it had been stated publicly that the GM had more wiggle room with the payroll if there were proposed moves available that could help put the Twins over the top. At this point in the new park's history, isn't it soon becoming incumbent on the owners to insure that years like 2011 are an anomaly? Sadly right now, the actions of the club speak louder than the words, it appears the payroll will continue shrinking for the next few years until all the high-priced contracts are fully shed- with Willingham-like and Carrol-like deals acting as transitional Band-Aids, rather than sincere reloading efforts.

[dwintheiser]

It seems like General Managing 101. Only sell guys who are free agents at the end of the year (Capps) or guys who have value but not close to their salary (Morneau, Mauer)

Look at it from the other GM's perspective.

 

If you don't think Mauer is worth $23M a year, why trade good value prospects to get him into your organization?

 

Even more to the point, why give up good value to get a player for three months who you're going to end up paying through the nose for at the end of the year, when you could just wait until the end of the year and pay through the nose and just give the other team a low first-round draft pick?

 

Criticizing GMs for not making deals like 'your best prospect for my backup shortstop who I wasn't planning to re-sign in the off-season anyway' assumes that there are GMs out there who would make those deals. Short of assuming every other GM is an idiot, I'm not seeing it.

[James Richter]

james, you base that on how the Pohlads and Ryan have acted in the past, or do you think they are changed people?

Based on how they've acted in the past, I think the Pohlads like making money. Fielding a competitive team next year will help them make money. Ryan has historically addressed the team's needs pretty well within the constraints of the budget and the available players on the market. I don't take it as a foregone conclusion that the payroll is going down next year. But even if it drops by another $13M, and Ryan only has $22M available to sign free agents, I can't think of any better way to spend it than on two $11M SPs. Now if they kid themselves into thinking that Diamond is an ace and they can get away with signing Joe Blanton, I'm sure they'll do that. But if they're honest about what they've got, and what they need, they'll be bidding on #2 starters next winter.

[Mike Sixel]

James, I hope you are right, and I am wrong. Really, really hope it.

[jokin]

Based on how they've acted in the past, I think the Pohlads like making money. Fielding a competitive team next year will help them make money. Ryan has historically addressed the team's needs pretty well within the constraints of the budget and the available players on the market. I don't take it as a foregone conclusion that the payroll is going down next year. But even if it drops by another $13M, and Ryan only has $22M available to sign free agents, I can't think of any better way to spend it than on two $11M SPs. Now if they kid themselves into thinking that Diamond is an ace and they can get away with signing Joe Blanton, I'm sure they'll do that. But if they're honest about what they've got, and what they need, they'll be bidding on #2 starters next winter.

Based on Twins history, they won't do it, makes too much sense, and making sense is too risky for a club still in denial at the state of the club and still a club that always does things the same way as before. Blanton it is then(whoopee), the best we could hope for is they split the difference and go for a #3SP like Bedard...and Blanton (Sigh...)