which is the better way to compare seasons for the Twins?

[Brandon]

I just posted this is another thread but thought it could use some discussion on this board. 

 

When comparing this 90 loss team to last 90 loss team lets compare the appropriate stats.  we don't compare pitchers by wins and losses anymore.  Why are we comparing the teams record the same way as old school non-stat guys do?  In 2013 our run differential was -174.  This year before todays game we are at -68.  That's over a 100 run improvement which is huge.  And now we are acclimating our core for the future compared to using aging veterans to try to look like we have talent.  That is how we should compare this team to last years.

 

Which is the better way to compare 2013 to 2014?

 

Run differential?

 

Won - Loss records?

[gunnarthor]

Of the two, run differential gives a better sense of the teams future for a number of reasons.  I mentioned many times during the season that the more important things instead of the record was the development of young players like Gibson, Arcia, Hicks, May, Meyer, Buxton etc and to see if Plouffe and Dozier were really real players. 

[goulik]

So you want metrics to compare things like which is a better way of dying, getting hit by a car, a cannon ball or stepped by an elephant?

 

There is no granularity in suckiness.

Adamantly and 100% Disagree. The fact is that this is not the same team introduced this past spring. We have led the majors in Runs since August 1st? That is not "suckiness" and it is not something we dreamed of last August/September.

 

People like to pile on about how this is the same team with the same results and the 90+ loss number is thrown out there repeatedly but true followers of the game of baseball can see the difference from last years team with little hope to this August/September team that holds a bright hope of a different future.I would take this Septembers Starting 5 over last years starting 5 anytime. I'm frankly tired of the sound bite complaints that are not based on what is actually on the field in front of us.

[TheLeviathan]

I think the run differential improvement is encouraging.  One of the reasons I thought this team wasn't going to get much better this year was because of how lucky they were to win the games they did with a run differential as awful as 2013s.  

 

This team may have been a bit on the other side of the aisle for bad luck, which could be encouraging for next year.  Ultimately I think next year boils down to what happens with Escobar and Santana and others that may have hard adjustments and need to prove they are the evolved player we saw this year and not the more likely version that they've demonstrated for years in the minors.  

 

So I see some reason to be cautiously optimistic we may have taken a step in the right direction finally.  Hopefully the Twins aren't content with that step, however. 

[USAFChief]

There have been some encouraging developments.

 

But there is work to be done this offseason if there is to be realistic hope for contending in 2015.

[Thrylos]

 true followers of the game of baseball can see the difference from last years team with little hope to this August/September team that holds a bright hope of a different future.I would take this Septembers Starting 5 over last years starting 5 anytime. I'm frankly tired of the sound bite complaints that are not based on what is actually on the field in front of us.

 

Well... This true follower of the game of baseball sees not much hope in this team and thinks that it will not be, unless it looses some of the loser culture that hangs on top of it.

 

There are players who have been playing well this fall.  Heck Parmelee had a 1.035 OPS in 2011 too.  Got to see the team as a whole.  Got to hear the self congratulatory statements that players like Swarzak (and I am not picking on him) have expressed within the context of 99+96+96+91+ and look at the big picture and what the brass is doing to right this ship.

[ashbury]

Moderator's Note: it's not productive to delve into who is a Real Fan or is a True Student Of The Game and variations thereof.  Please don't go there.

[Paul Pleiss]

I have a pair of Jason Bartlett's baby blue pants that I wear during international sporting events. I'm pretty sure that makes me a real fan, or something.

 

If you want a metric for this season vs last season, I think run differential is a good place to start, but I'm more inclined to side with Thrylos that getting beaten to death with a tire iron or falling asleep after having swalloed cyanide capsuls are both terrible out comes. This season has been better, better to watch, more fun to follow, but it's been bad. Maybe if you look at NERD scores developed over at Fangrahphs and compare them over the course of this season to last season. That'd be a fun piece.

[twinsnorth49]

Well... This true follower of the game of baseball sees not much hope in this team and thinks that it will not be, unless it looses some of the loser culture that hangs on top of it.

Well at least we're using quantifiable facts now...

[goulik]

Moderator's Note: it's not productive to delve into who is a Real Fan or is a True Student Of The Game and variations thereof.  Please don't go there.

I apologize for my poor wording. I have read Thrylos long enough to know he is a true fan... When we use poor wording meanings can be missed.

My point was that all of us can see a quantifiable difference between this years August/September team and last years roster.

Last years starters included "Ace" Correia and questionable rookie Gibson and a bunch of AAAA starters

This year we have Hughes, More solid Gibson, questionable rookie May, and two MLB pitchers performing worse for the Twins than previously (Milone and Nolasco) thats better than last year.

[notoriousgod71]

Until baseball starts handing out postseason berths based on run differential I will continue to base the success of the team on W-L.

 

That said, this team is in a better position than it has been the past three off-seasons. We found three young position players and a young pitcher that should be around for awhile, with our two studs yet to arrive.

 

The pitching staff is still mostly unwatchable but there's definitely progress being made. The real excitement is when this team's improvement isn't by a few games but suddenly jumps 15-20.

[bird]

I'd venture to guess that most of us are encouraged by the fact that we weren't getting blown out all the time this year, as the run differential verifies. I'm personally encouraged by the fact that so many of my friends on TD are finding reasons to be at least cautiously optimistic. We still get the occasional obtuse rants along the line of "same record means no improvement", but they're much less frequent now that they were in July.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Wins are a team stat and at the end of the day matter the most to the team. That being said, the run differential improvement is encouraging. Improvements in fielding and pitching will go a long ways towards continuing the improvement.

[bird]

Well... This true follower of the game of baseball sees not much hope in this team and thinks that it will not be, unless it looses some of the loser culture that hangs on top of it.

 

There are players who have been playing well this fall.  Heck Parmelee had a 1.035 OPS in 2011 too.  Got to see the team as a whole.  Got to hear the self congratulatory statements that players like Swarzak (and I am not picking on him) have expressed within the context of 99+96+96+91+ and look at the big picture and what the brass is doing to right this ship.

 

The thread is about stats that allow a truer means to measure improvement. I for one find run differential to be a superior measure of improvement to random perceptions about loser cultures, or anecdotes about self-congratulatory statements from players, or platitudes about the importance of looking at the big picture and seeing the team as a whole.