Bowden - Hitters Who Could Be Dealt

[tarheeltwinsfan]

But why would it ever be too late? Suzuki is not a guy who would ever be out of the Twins price range in free agency. In fact, paying him now would likely mean paying more than he'll receive as a free agent as he is playing over his head right now. An expected 2nd half decline would likely correct his current market price.

Good point. I had not thought of saving some $ by signing him later after his inevitable decline...but what if he doesn't decline the rest of this season...then won't he be worth even more?

[nicksaviking]

I think Suzuki can help what will be a young pitching staff next year, more so than any catcher we have in the minors now. Pitching has been our greatest need. We have some good pitchers in AAA and AA and they will need a catcher with experience and smarts...not some rookie who is just as lost as these young pitchers will be. Sign Suzuki for 2 years with a team option for the 3rd year.

 

Right, but this could be done in November.

 

Good point. I had not thought of saving some $ by signing him later after his inevitable decline...but what if he doesn't decline the rest of this season...then won't he be worth even more?

 

It's possible, but I'd say the odds are against it. Even if he continues this unlikely pace, he's still not going to price himself out of the Twins pocketbook, not even close. I'd take this risk for these bigger payoffs.

[jay]

If the Twins are selling, that means they are out of it, so what if they are thin at catcher for the remainder of a losing season? If they like what they have in Suzuki, trade him then re-sign him in the off-season. If he can bring back a nice player or two it seems silly to hold on to him simply because you want to be the first team to negotiate with him in the off-season. If they want him back, surely they can make him aware of that upon the trade.

 

If he wants to play in Minnesota next year, why wouldn't he want the team to try to increase the talent level to play alongside of him?

 

Great in theory, but this is one of those fan ideas that just doesn't play out in reality.

 

But why would it ever be too late? Suzuki is not a guy who would ever be out of the Twins price range in free agency. In fact, paying him now would likely mean paying more than he'll receive as a free agent as he is playing over his head right now. An expected 2nd half decline would likely correct his current market price.

 

Your argument here is the same one that can be made for an extension. Neither price would ever be out of the Twins' price range. If the Twins do want to keep him around, there's value in knowing you have your guy opposed to hoping for the best during free agency.

 

If his contract demands are too high right now, then play it out the rest of the year. Trading him and re-signing him seems like the far and away least likely scenario. Please note that I'm not actually saying the Twins should extend him, only that I can see why they would if they don't think Pinto is the answer. Personally, I'd rather see Pinto.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd also rather see Pinto, but I also believe they don't like that option and think Suzuki is a good defensive catcher (even though the pitch framing data says otherwise). It wouldn't kill me either way if Suzuki was on the roster next year, frankly.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The trade and re-sign him plan is a nice thought - it might be optimistic to assume that Suzuki would come back to the Twins once he's a free agent. What if he likes the team he's traded to even more than the Twins? What if the team that he's traded to wins the World Series (or even just makes a deep playoff run)? It worked for Aguilera that one year because Aggie was a fixture in the Twins bullpen for years before he was traded, won a ring with the Twins, and was a fan favorite here.

 

Does Suzuki have a house in the TC burbs somewhere or does he still live in SoCal? I don't think half a season (as good as it has been for him) is enough to think he'd pick the Twins again in the off-season given he'd be the #1 free agent catcher (as opposed to #3 or #4 last off-season behind McCann, AJ, and Saltalamacchia).

 

I can say objectively that trading Suzuki near the deadline and then re-signing him in the offseason would be the best thing for the Twins to do (EDITED TO ADD: assuming that the Twins are not going to play Pinto as the everyday guy in 2015) . I'm skeptical that they can do it.

[jorgenswest]

Suzuki currently ranks 21st among all catchers according to Fangraphs WAR. They do not include pitch framing data in their calculations. The Twins overall rank 18th at catcher with a boost from Pinto's bat that most teams don't get in a second catcher.

 

Suzuki ranks 21st while having a career season. Their pitching ERA ranks 28th in spite of Suzuki's game calling skills. That is with the benefit of Target Field (Rangers 29th, Rockies 30th). If they extend Suzuki it is guaranteed that the Twins will not look for another solution either by free agent, Pinto or trade.

 

In 2/3 the games, Russell Martin has twice the WAR ranking 9th. The separation would even be greater if his pitch framing data were included.

 

If the Twins must go after a veteran catcher, isn't Martin the better choice?

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667331

 

You have to scroll WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY down to find Suzuki.....

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Martin is better, but he's going to be looking for a 3 year deal, and most indications are that the Pirates are going to spend to retain him.

 

All I'm saying is that if the Twins are going to go with a player other than Pinto in 2015, I hope they extend Suzuki now, rather than not retaining him and roll the dice in the off-season, hoping to get Martin, Suzuki or worse.

 

What is the best move based on the track record of the front office? The best move that they might actually make is to get Suzuki to sign for another year, with a team option for 2016.

 

The best move overall? That's probably trading Suzuki for whatever they can get, then starting Pinto in 2015. I don't think that is what they will do.

[jorgenswest]

By signing Suzuki, the Twins simply extend and accept being mediocre. Why extend any decline phase player unless they are among the top third of their position? They need to allow space for the decline.

 

Trade Suzuki. Give Pinto 2 months. Assess in the winter.

 

If they can't sign Martin and are convinced Pinto is a DH, they don't have to choose someone else from the list. They can make a trade.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

They can certainly try to make a trade.

 

When I advocate for Suzuki, I'm saying I'd rather the Twins have him on the team than Fryer or Herrmann in 2015.

 

I feel like that is the choice that the Twins have set up for themselves. I'd like to be wrong about that, it would be great if Pinto works out and/or they get a player better than all three options (Suzuki/Fryer/Herrmann) to be Pinto insurance.

[Willihammer]

I think you could make an argument to re-sign or extend any of those 3.

 

It looks to me like the bigger roster crunch will be pitching.

[JB_Iowa]

si.com (even as poorly redesigned as it is) has an article on 5 hitters likely to be traded.

 

Tops on their list is Willingham:

 

Josh Willingham, LF, Twins

A trade of Willingham has seemed inevitable ever since the ink dried on the three-year, $21 million contract he signed with the Twins in December 2011. A production-sapping knee injury that shelved him for all of July wiped out the chance of a deal last year, but now that he’s in the final year of that contract and his calling-card patience and power have returned, a trade sending Willingham out of Minnesota seems once again, well, inevitable.

 

Willingham suffered a fractured wrist in early April, but since returning from the disabled list in late May, he has reached base at a .388 clip while slugging .495 with seven homers in 31 games. Those numbers have come despite a .238 average, and that's due to some bad luck on balls in play. Willingham is a lousy fielder, but he has a history of thriving in pitchers parks and is making just $7 million this year.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/01/five-hitters-likely-be-moved-trade-deadline

 

 

Even got his picture on the front page of the mlb portion of the site.

[tobi0040]

si.com (even as poorly redesigned as it is) has an article on 5 hitters likely to be traded.

 

Tops on their list is Willingham:

 

Josh Willingham, LF, Twins

A trade of Willingham has seemed inevitable ever since the ink dried on the three-year, $21 million contract he signed with the Twins in December 2011. A production-sapping knee injury that shelved him for all of July wiped out the chance of a deal last year, but now that he’s in the final year of that contract and his calling-card patience and power have returned, a trade sending Willingham out of Minnesota seems once again, well, inevitable.

 

Willingham suffered a fractured wrist in early April, but since returning from the disabled list in late May, he has reached base at a .388 clip while slugging .495 with seven homers in 31 games. Those numbers have come despite a .238 average, and that's due to some bad luck on balls in play. Willingham is a lousy fielder, but he has a history of thriving in pitchers parks and is making just $7 million this year.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/01/five-hitters-likely-be-moved-trade-deadline

 

 

Even got his picture on the front page of the mlb portion of the site.

 

I pretty much agree with that. I think someone offers something for him. He could serve as a DH to an AL team that has a hole or platoons at DH and needs a righty. He could be a valuable bench guy on a deep team, or play LF for a team not so concerned about defense. I wish the Phillies were in the hunt (Delmon Young joke)

[ashbury]

I wish the analysis by SI contained any hint of what they think he would fetch. Of course he is going to be the object of inquiries (at least from the Astros, given their recent news ), but if we're talking only some 25th ranked prospect in somebody's system then it's not really worth discussing. And it's very unclear to me that there is a team out there desperate enough for a two month rental of a good but flawed player to offer a difference maker in return.

 

I could envision a trade a la Jamey Carroll, to a contender, as a courtesy to the player himself.

[oldguy10]

While it is a nice thought I do not think any trades at this point should be done as a courtesy to the player(s). The Twins can use any kind of prospect if only a middling one if and when they deal any of the veterans currently on the roster.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It seems to me that prospects are more highly prized than they've been before - at the same time, there are still blockbuster deals made with several prospects being moved for a #1 Starter. I think it will be hard to get an impressive return for Willingham because he's older, on his final year of a contract, and teams are protective of their prospects.

 

I think he will get traded if Ryan gets a decent offer from just about anyone. Probably not getting anyone's top 25 for Willingham, but it's possible that a younger player in AAA or sitting on the end of someone's 25 Man roster that's blocked by an established player could be acquired for Willingham. It's hard to even guess who that might be, though.

[nicksaviking]

Willingham would get a team's top 25 prospect. In a deep Twins farm system we're talking about a Niko Goodrum, Mason Melotakis, Felix Jorge, Zack Jones or Aaron Slegers. A team in need isn't going to stop one of those fringy guys from holding up a deal for Willingham.

 

It will depend on his health and production obviously, but I'll bet the team can snag something in the 8-15 range depending on desperation.

 

Of course that's assuming the Twins don't try to do another stupid 2-for-1 deal, taking on a couple of "MLB ready" AAAA players who both require 40-man spots. Then I'd prefer they just let Willingham walk at the end of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

If they acquire guys needing 40 man spots, that are not actual starting MLB players, I will be bummed.

[jorgenswest]

The return for Willingham is not going to excite the fan base. It is very rare for good prospects to get traded and when they are traded it will be for starting pitching, shortstops, centerfielders or catchers.

 

It is a waste to trade him for a guy like Alex Presley who will be out of options in 2015. Those kinds of players will be available as minor league free agents in the winter.

 

The kind of player that might help is a young player sitting in A-Ball that has yet to perform well but has the tools. They could also look for a player in AA and AAA that is struggling but has always been very young for his league like Escobar.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If they acquire guys needing 40 man spots, that are not actual starting MLB players, I will be bummed.

 

Not very many contenders are going to trade a starter for Willingham. That's opening up a second weakness to fill a void. If he's traded, it will be for a prospect, or prospects.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Of course that's assuming the Twins don't try to do another stupid 2-for-1 deal, taking on a couple of "MLB ready" AAAA players who both require 40-man spots. Then I'd prefer they just let Willingham walk at the end of the season.

 

The return is going to be based in part on what another team is offering. If Hammer isn't in the future plans, then Ryan will be shopping him and he's going to take the best option available. If he doesn't get decent value, he won't make the trade. It won't be as if he's turning down Giolotto b/c Pittsburg won't give up more.

 

I'd think of it more this way, Hammer should have a lot more demand than Liriano did when he was traded for a couple of C/C+ guys in Escobar and Hernandez. The return should top that, but I wouldn't get too worked up thinking that 2 C+/B- guys could somehow yield 1 B+ or A- guy. It doesn't work that way.

[Mike Sixel]

Not very many contenders are going to trade a starter for Willingham. That's opening up a second weakness to fill a void. If he's traded, it will be for a prospect, or prospects.

 

Except, some of those are on 40 man rosters, as we know.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just reviewing the notable trade deadline deals at MLB.com...

 

2013:

Alfonso Soriano netted the Yankees 25th ranked prospect last year (who went on to be ranked #15 for the Cubs after the season).

 

The Cubs also dealt Scott Hairston for the Nationals' 27th ranked prospect (who then ranked #21 for the Cubs).

 

2012:

Carlos Lee got the Marlins #4 ranked prospect (Matt Dominguez, current Astros starting 3B)

 

Jim Thome was traded for the Orioles #18 and #21 ranked prospects

 

Ichiro got the Yankees #16 prospect plus another guy

 

2011:

Derrek Lee got the #14 Orioles prospect

 

Ryan Ludwick was sold for cash

 

Jerry Hairston (again) netted Erik Komatsu (remember him?)

 

I stopped looking at that point...

[tobi0040]

Just reviewing the notable trade deadline deals at MLB.com...

 

2013:

Alfonso Soriano netted the Yankees 25th ranked prospect last year (who went on to be ranked #15 for the Cubs after the season).

 

The Cubs also dealt Scott Hairston for the Nationals' 27th ranked prospect (who then ranked #21 for the Cubs).

 

2012:

Carlos Lee got the Marlins #4 ranked prospect (Matt Dominguez, current Astros starting 3B)

 

Jim Thome was traded for the Orioles #18 and #21 ranked prospects

 

Ichiro got the Yankees #16 prospect plus another guy

 

2011:

Derrek Lee got the #14 Orioles prospect

 

Ryan Ludwick was sold for cash

 

Jerry Hairston (again) netted Erik Komatsu (remember him?)

 

I stopped looking at that point...

 

Not to mention, most teams #15-#20th rated guy would probably be our #30th rated guy.

[Mike Sixel]

Cubs got jake arietta on July 2, 2013.....maybe the Twins will make a cool trade tomorrow!

[TheLeviathan]

Cubs got jake arietta on July 2, 2013.....maybe the Twins will make a cool trade tomorrow!

 

I loved that move at the time. It's taken some time to pay off but that was the ideal buy-low trade rebuilding teams need to chance.

[Guest USAFChief]

I loved that move at the time. It's taken some time to pay off but that was the ideal buy-low trade rebuilding teams need to chance.

Concur. IMO if the Twins do end up dumping players this summer, they should look for players who were former top prospects who have, for one reason or another, lost their luster, or failed in short big league tryouts. I think you have a lot better chance at finding impact players that way than stocking up on other team's C level guys that almost never develop into anything more than spare parts. You can pick up spare parts pretty easily every winter.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

How about Nolan Reimold, recently DFA'd by Baltimore? If he can be had via waiver claim, it would cost the Twins 500k for the rest of 2014, and they'd have to drop someone from their 40-Man roster (possibly the 25 man too, not sure if Reimold is out of options, but if they pick him up it should be to play him regardless)

He was a former top prospect, he's dealt with some injuries but has been a semi-regular in Baltimore for about 5 seasons...

[jorgenswest]

Reimold's career OPS+ is a little better than Parmelee's. He is a corner OF. He is 4 years older at 30. Would you replace him on the roster for Parmelee? I wouldn't.

 

I think you want some upside of age left on those former prospects. Arrieta was 27 when the Cubs traded Feldman for him.

[stringer bell]

How about Nolan Reimold, recently DFA'd by Baltimore? If he can be had via waiver claim, it would cost the Twins 500k for the rest of 2014, and they'd have to drop someone from their 40-Man roster (possibly the 25 man too, not sure if Reimold is out of options, but if they pick him up it should be to play him regardless)

He was a former top prospect, he's dealt with some injuries but has been a semi-regular in Baltimore for about 5 seasons...

In light of the Mauer injury (and Kennys Vargas' recent slump) I'd do it today. Reimold has rehabbed his most recent injury so he should be good to go. The Twins could use a RH hitting corner OF, especially if Parm is the regular 1B. Reimold could start in left vs. LH pitching (Hammer DH, Morales 1B) to get an extra RH bat in the lineup or he could give Arcia a rest in right field.