Bowden - Hitters Who Could Be Dealt

[DJL44]

Suzuki might be able to score $7M this offseason as the top FA option at catcher. If he'll take a $4M extension now the Twins would be foolish not to extend him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Turner has a very decent shot at starting out, or soon after, at AA next year. We may be talking about the heir apparent being up by next summer- the Twins could probably live with Pinto/Hermann/Fryer until then.

Factor in the inevitable injuries and the fact that none of these 3 have proven that he can be a full time catcher in the major leagues would result in the twins having a very weak group of catchers.

[tobi0040]

Suzuki might be able to score $7M this offseason as the top FA option at catcher. If he'll take a $4M extension now the Twins would be foolish not to extend him.

 

$7M seems high to me. AJ signed 1/$8.25M and he hit over 40HR the last two years. Russell Martin signed 2/17. Clearly both have a better offensive record. But you got me, $4M is probably a tad low.

[JB_Iowa]

$7M seems high to me. AJ signed 1/$8.25M and he hit over 40HR the last two years. Russell Martin signed 2/17. Clearly both have a better offensive record. But you got me, $4M is probably a tad low.

 

Depends upon what role scarcity at the position plays.

[tobi0040]

Factor in the inevitable injuries and the fact that none of these 3 have proven that he can be a full time catcher in the major leagues would result in the twins having a very weak group of catchers.

 

Yeah, I would just hate to wait 3-4 years for Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer, and May to come up...only to see the catcher position hitting .210 with 3 HR.

[jorgenswest]

Suzuki might be able to score $7M this offseason as the top FA option at catcher. If he'll take a $4M extension now the Twins would be foolish not to extend him.

 

I think everyone would agree that a 1 year extension at 4 million is a good deal for the Twins. What would motivate Suzuki to take his deal and give up his last chance at getting overpaid on a multiyear contract?

 

Oakland passed on his 8.25 million option for 2014. If I am Suzuki, I am looking for at least 2 years and 16 million to give up my free agent rights.

[Dman]

I think everyone would agree that a 1 year extension at 4 million is a good deal for the Twins. What would motivate Suzuki to take his deal and give up his last chance at getting overpaid on a multiyear contract?

 

Oakland passed on his 8.25 million option for 2014. If I am Suzuki, I am looking for at least 2 years and 16 million to give up my free agent rights.

 

I agree. I think you would have to overpay him to give up Free Agency. With catchers looking scarce for next year that only increases his value. If I were the motorcycle I would wait for the bidding war at the end of the season. Who knows what crazy money might come your way.

[jokin]

Factor in the inevitable injuries and the fact that none of these 3 have proven that he can be a full time catcher in the major leagues would result in the twins having a very weak group of catchers.

 

Yep, although Turner is said to have had the most major-league-ready tools of any catching prospect when he was drafted last year- so by the end of 2015, maybe not that weak.

 

Having the 3 other guys with major league experience (albeit not full-time) would mitigate the injury situation for half a year....again, my speculation, and it is pure speculation at this point, is based on the Twins possibly feeling that Turner has shown enough to be able to come in and take over full-time by the All Star break next year. The Twins would certainly take a step down in the intangible department in the short-term relative to Suzuki, but Terry Ryan has expressed confidence in Fryer's ability to handle a staff and Fryer is getting valuable experience working with Zuke at the moment.

 

But when all is said and done, Suzuki is having a career year, and his value in trade will likely never be higher than it is right now. Hard to walk away from a potential mini-prospect haul should the opportunity arise in the next month.

[DJL44]

Since Suzuki at 2 years $15M is probably NOT a good deal for the Twins they should be looking at their trade options. Maybe some team will give up their 'Wilson Ramos' at the deadline.

[tobi0040]

I agree. I think you would have to overpay him to give up Free Agency. With catchers looking scarce for next year that only increases his value. If I were the motorcycle I would wait for the bidding war at the end of the season. Who knows what crazy money might come your way.

 

There is probably some truth to that. The risk is he gets hurt between now and the end of the year, which he has had some injuries. He does seem to like it here and it sounds like Gardy loves him. The Twins likely know what they would sign him for next year, so offer him a little less than that and re-evaluate. If we are on different planets, then by all means get what you can get for him.

[Dman]

There is probably some truth to that. The risk is he gets hurt between now and the end of the year, which he has had some injuries. He does seem to like it here and it sounds like Gardy loves him. The Twins likely know what they would sign him for next year, so offer him a little less than that and re-evaluate. If we are on different planets, then by all means get what you can get for him.

 

He definitively takes on the risk of getting hurt or having his performance drop off if he waits things out but he has been durable over his career so he might take on that risk. Who knows what he will get in FA it can be a fickle market. He might only get 5M or he might get 10M very hard to say.

 

Personally I still like your analysis and agree that keeping Suzuki for two more years makes a lot of sense for the Twins. The question is do the Twins feel the same way.

[Dave T]

Suzuki isn't signed for 2015. Unless you think the Twins should give him a qualifying offer of $15M they HAVE to consider extending him.

Fixed it for you.

[Hugh Morris]

Maybe some team will give up their 'Wilson Ramos' at the deadline.

 

I'm sure many teams would be willing to part with an injury prone all-glove catcher who struggled mightily with his first taste of advanced pitching for the proper return. In the words of Kevin Goldstein at the time: "his perceived value was far greater than the reality"

 

With that said, I would gladly offer anyone other than Perk from the bullpen for a similarly "tarnished" former top 100 prospect (a pitcher in the Trevor May vein, or an outfielder similar to Hicks). Trading Willingham and Suzuki becomes more difficult with the struggles of Arcia and Pinto-and I think avoiding the catastrophic collapses of recent Augusts and Septembers has more value than a couple of marginal prospects.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The way they played of late, I think the Twins are more a pretender than a contender. I don't really care if they want to add something and make a run, though I do think selling high on those guys would be in the best long term interest of the franchise. None of them will be back next season.

[Thrylos]

If the Twins dealt Perkins, they should deal Pinto with him

[Otto von Ballpark]

$7M seems high to me. AJ signed 1/$8.25M and he hit over 40HR the last two years. Russell Martin signed 2/17. Clearly both have a better offensive record. But you got me, $4M is probably a tad low.

 

Suzuki made $6.45 mil in his last arb year, plus a $0.65 mil option buyout, so essentially $7 mil.

 

The option on his first FA year was valued at $8.5 mil, and actually would have vested at $9.25 mil if he had been a starter all of 2013.

 

Given that he fell to backup status over 2012-2013, he almost certainly won't get that salary in 2015, but he could come close in free agency, with a 2 year deal similar to Martin's, if he finishes 2014 strong. Would be very interesting to see what kind of discount the Twins could get by signing him right now, though. 2/10? 2/12?

[jorgenswest]

Suzuki is not going to perform at this level the next two years. Sign him for two years and his trade value takes a nose dive. Sell high. Don't buy high.

[SwainZag]

Suzuki is not going to perform at this level the next two years. Sign him for two years and his trade value takes a nose dive. Sell high. Don't buy high.

 

Agree 100%. He will be 31 at the end of the year, is hitting 60 points better than his career AVG and OBP in half a season with us, and you want to lock him up now!? He is much, much more likely to regress to career norms than stay at his current value. ALSO he is a catcher, who we all know age so well into their mid-30s.

 

Just a month ago half of this board was clamoring to sit him half the time to start Pinto. Instead we want to sign Susuki to a 2-3 year deal and watch Pinto be again blocked? Saying the only viable options at C next year are AJ and Russel Martine are very short sided.

 

If the Twins are out of the mix by the deadline, I deal him for spects, promote Pinto, see how he does and go from there.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I do think the Twins will need to dip into the FA market for someone next season to help Pinto, as I don't see Fryer and Hermann as that guy. I'd normally say get a defensive guru who can teach him a thing or two, but I suspect Gardy would give him the Butera treatment. Regardless, it's worked well this year, and I think selling high here wouldn't be the worst idea. Suzuki has some value and might fetch a B type prospect for him that would slot into the mid to lower part of most team's top 10. I think that would be well worth it.

[Major League Ready]

It's a lot easier to list the players on the 25 man I would not trade.

 

Hughes

Gibson

Arcia

Santana

Dozier and I would consider trading him if the return was high enough

[cmathewson]

I don't think we're talking about a lot of money int he grand scheme of things, to give him a two-year $15M extension. I would try to get it done prior to free agency.

[Dman]

Agree 100%. He will be 31 at the end of the year, is hitting 60 points better than his career AVG and OBP in half a season with us, and you want to lock him up now!? He is much, much more likely to regress to career norms than stay at his current value. ALSO he is a catcher, who we all know age so well into their mid-30s.

 

Just a month ago half of this board was clamoring to sit him half the time to start Pinto. Instead we want to sign Susuki to a 2-3 year deal and watch Pinto be again blocked? Saying the only viable options at C next year are AJ and Russel Martine are very short sided.

 

If the Twins are out of the mix by the deadline, I deal him for spects, promote Pinto, see how he does and go from there.

 

I think the question many of us have is what value does Suzuki have on the trade market? Teams have been reluctant to give up much more than relievers or C level prospects for players to make a run. The exception being for solid pitching. If a team offered a solid B or A level prospect for Suzuki would pretty much everyone on the board be happy with that. I think so.

 

The problem is that right now Suzuki is the best hitter on this team and he has been consistent since the beginning of the season. Would most teams trade their best hitter for a C level prospect or two? I don't think so. Most teams would try and lock that guy up.

 

You are correct odds are he will regress this year and in the following years but he also could stay around the 270 or 280 level as well. Cuddeyer was supposed to be washed up and he won a batting title after leaving the Twins. Morneau looks to be having a better year than his last two after leaving. Hunter was supposed to be on the decline when he left the Twins and he performed better for several years after he left and is still playing well. So age doesn't always predict productivity.

 

The reason most of us myself included didn't want Suzuki at the beginning of the year is that his bat was likely not much better than Pinto's and Pinto needed to learn by doing. It appears that the Pitching staff appreciates what Suzuki brings to the table and Pinto is injured and has a few things to work on yet. They can still split time if Suzuki were resigned for a couple of years and if Pinto takes off Suzuki could be traded later.

 

I think the Twins will wait for a desperation offer at the deadline for Suzuki. If they get what they want they will trade him, if not they will have him sign an extension and likely overpay for his services, but that is what you do for the best hitter on your team.

[tobi0040]

I don't think we're talking about a lot of money int he grand scheme of things, to give him a two-year $15M extension. I would try to get it done prior to free agency.

 

Given our payroll is in the $80's or very low 90's with Kendrys. We have $17M off the books with Kendry's and Josh alone next year. Certainly we will have more cheap prospects coming up next year, I agree. Let's not take too hard of a line here. The downside risks of having a minor league catcher or searching that scary list of free agents is high.

 

Sell high sounds great, but are we getting a difference maker for a Suzuki rental? So I don't want to get too hung up on that and end up with a huge hole in the lineup next year.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

That's the main benefit of extending Suzuki's contract. There's already a need to be filled in CF for at least 2015 (and possibly part of 2016, depending on Buxton's development), a hole in Left field, lingering questions about SS (though I like Santana and/or Escobar there for this year). It would be nice for the Twins to not also be looking to add another free agent catcher this off-season.

[Steven Buhr]

I doubt Suzuki would sign a 1 year extension for a "modest" raise. He's having a good season and could likely turn that in to a decent multi year deal on the open market. Of course, locking up security at mid-season eliminates risk on his part that he falls on his face (or breaks his leg) in the 2nd half and has no value in the offseason.

 

I think a significant raise, maybe to $5-6 mil, for 1 year plus an option year will be what it would take for an extension and I'd probably do it at this point if I'm running the Twins and can get that deal done. The Twins have so much payroll flexibility for the next 2 years that even if the deal blows up in their faces, it wouldn't prevent them from being able to afford to add other talent.

 

And, as others have said, there's really nobody at this point that you can realistically see becoming the next regular starting catcher over the next 1-2 years. I think Stuart will take until at least mid-2016 to arrive.

[jorgenswest]

For those of you that want to resign Suzuki, what level of performance do you expect?

 

Suzuki is having his best year in several years. He ranks 19th in WAR among catchers (fangraphs).

 

His WAR is fueled by a high batting average (and hence OBP). His BABIP is more than 50 points higher than his career rate. BABIPs for the last four years are 245, 244, 269, 245 and this year 325.

 

As for his defense we know that he continues to rank among the bottom in throwing and framing. We know that pitchers on both Washington and Oakland performed better with the other catchers in 2012-2013 than they did with Suzuki. Since he has done almost all of the catching (with the exception of Deduno) that is a comparison that can't be made. The performance of Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Correia might be compared to previous performance.

 

The Twins have three options. I hope they sell. If they don't sell, I hope they let him become a free agent. The worst thing they can do is buy high expecting that he will maintain his on base skills. They will end up committed to a catcher that should be expected to perform no better than his aggregate numbers over the last 3-5 years which would be something like 245/305/365.

[Mike Sixel]

If not Suzuki, whom? My beliefs are based on a belief that the Twins don't like Pinto for some reason, so they need someone else.

[tobi0040]

Jorgen, I think we could expect something like Suzuki's career .690 OPS or slightly higher. For me, that would be an above average bat for the position and fine with me. Only nine guys in MLB this year have a higher OPS than that (that meet a qualifer for AB's). Regarding the defense, I am not a huge believer in framing or that the difference between the best catcher and worst catcher in the league is 60+ runs a year or whatever. I just have a hard time believing a catcher moving his glove can have that big of an impact. I think the only pitchers this year that have a big deviation either way from their career and have enough innings to draw any sort of conclusion are Nolasco (bad) and Hughes (good). Ricky has seen his BABIP go from a career .310 ish to .355. Hughes has been much better and luck doesn't appear to play a huge role in him. But I don't give Suzuki much credit or blame for either.

 

My question to you is, if we let Suzuki walk or trade him, what is your plan for 2015? What are the odds the only two better options (AJ and Martin) sign here as free agents, especially given AJ took less money to sign elsewhere and says he wants to win? Do you think Gardy will hand over the reigns to Turner or Pinto next April? Does that trust exist? Do you see any risk that we end up with someone like Eric Fryer catching 100+ games next year and if so, would we regret not paying Suzuki a little more than you are comfortable with? Fryer's OPS over the last 4 years at AAA has been .807, .504, .714, and .656.

 

Lastly, what type of return do you expect for Suzuki?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#sectionType=sp&sortColumn=ops&season=2014&league_code='MLB'&statType=hitting&game_type='R'&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&season_type=ANY&page=1&ts=1403884619757&position='2'

[Steven Buhr]

Yeah, I guess I just don't know why there's this concern over "buying high" when there is absolutely no shortage of money available. Even IF it turns out to be a mistake, the Twins aren't in a position where having even $5-7 mil flushed down a toilet keeps them from affording virtually anything else they want to do.

 

Now, IF you believe trading Suzuki would bring in a legitimate high potential prospect or other valuable pieces to the near future success of the Twins, I guess I could at least understand that. I just think you'd be wrong about what you're expecting as a return for Suzuki.

 

I'd also understand if you believe Pinto is a serious option to start at catcher the next 2 years. I simply don't think there's any indication the Twins see that as likely at this point, either. He's going to be a DH going forward with the ability to catch in a pinch.

 

I don't expect Suzuki to maintain current offensive productivity levels two more years. I do expect him to perform near or slightly below his career offensive levels and I'm OK with that given the lack of other options.

[jorgenswest]

My hope is that the Twins win 85 games this year and are part of the conversation until the end.

 

Short of 85 wins, I hope they rebuild. I hope for a roster similar to 82-83 or 99-00. Suzuki would not be the catcher on the roster. Gardenhire would not be the manager.

 

So my plan for Suzuki would be to continue to roll with him and assess in a month. If they are on pace for at least 85 wins, keep it going. If not, sell off decline phase players for the best deal offered. Pinto would catch the remainder of the year. Vargas would DH. Rosario would be in LF. May and Meyer (assuming health) would be in the rotation. Achter, Tonkin and Oliveras would be in the pen.