Bookmarked. Very helpful chronology.

Wow, really nice work on this!

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Wow, really nice work on this!

Thank you!

I am very much looking forward to constant speculation and guessing from TD and the community when it comes to free agency, offseason trades, and roster moves. 

I'm assuming this will be all of us by January.

Why do you think they non-tender Farmer? Everything I've heard about him is positive and he's a decent fielder and hitter, especially against lefties. With this team being a primary LH hitting club they need a guy like Farmer.

The 40 man roster is not very deep particularly on offense.  There should not be any Rule V players that hit the market that are of any value with this current list.  

What's the over/under on the amount of free agents that are back next year? I'd be tempted to set it at 0.5 with the bet essentially being will Taylor re-sign.

Gray, Gallo, and Keuchel are a definite "no" and Maeda, Pagan, and Mahle depend on how they like some young arms (which I think they do) and Paddack's health/stuff (which seems fine). Solano is the only other possible returner to me and I think there is enough infield talent elsewhere on the roster to find a platoon 1B/UTL option.

3 hours ago, Not Greg Gagne said:

 

Gray, Gallo, and Keuchel are a definite "no" and Maeda, 

Why a definite No on Gray?  (aside from the price which may punt it into Cardinals territory...)

I think Buxton's knee determines Taylor (or facsimile) being brought on.

I would try to retain Gray, aside from the Playoff regression, he was a bulldog and hit the mound on schedule.

Pagan - I think is finally showing what the Twins saw in him.

We can lose Maeda and/or Gray with Ober, Paddock (and maybe Mahle) in the wings.  I don't want to lose Gray but I am not going overpay.

This offseason is going to be a key to continuing the reworking of the image of the Twins truly want to win.

Lopez, C4, Buxton and I think I missing someone, shows that the Twins have started moving in that direction.

Again, I really want to know what is going on with Buxton's knee and AK-19's shoulder.

Excited to see Royce, perhaps Brooks Lee, Eduardo, C4, AK-19, play a full season together.

Also, Kepler if he can keep up what he adjusted this year, plus Wallner and Buxton/Taylor/Larnach/Stevenson

Not to mention Austin Martin and Yunior Severino.

I do not like we lost, let alone to the Astros, but we are set up much much better than we have been in decades to improve.

 

This is very well done!

I'm actually pretty excited for this offseason.

The first thing I noticed looking at the payroll and roster as it stands is that they have a lot more flexibility this year than next year.  Lopez and Paddack will each get a substantial bump up in pay from 2024 to 2025, and more guys will entering/getting arbitration raises in 2025 vs 2024.  The only substantial contract definitely coming off the books in 2025 would be Kepler.

If they sign one or two large FA contracts this year, the 2025 payroll could get tricky.  1 year free agent deals are generally by definition, not very impactful.  However, they could get impact through expensive guys in their final year of arbitration.

Though probably a long shot, there are already several rumors about guys in that bucket.  First, Juan Soto at $33 million projected. Do the Padres really care about clearing expensive contracts? It doesn't seem so, but if they do want to get something for Soto they could maximize their return by trading him this offseason.

Second, Burnes or Woodruff for the Brewers.  Always cost-conscious and looking for prospects, the Brewers might want to unload one of Burnes, Woodruff, or Adames.  Burnes is projected around $15 million and Woodruff around $12.

Other relatively large arbitration projections are Pete Alonso ($22 million), Christian Walker ($12 million), and Anthony Santander ($12 million).  All of them would also be enticing.  There is maybe some chance that Alonso would be available, though it sounds like the Mets would rather move other guys if they decide to try to free up payroll.  The Diamondbacks and Orioles both have super cheap and young teams, so I see no reason they would want to move on from Walker or Santander.

The Twins would have to sacrifice some solid prospects for any of these moves, but would definitely not need to move Jenkins or Lee.

53 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

Why a definite No on Gray?  (aside from the price which may punt it into Cardinals territory...)

The price.

Not necessarily the AAV, but the number of years. A consistency in this FO's approach is not to box themselves into the corner on contracts. Buxton's contract is long, but very incentive-based. Correa's is six years, but considerably shorter than what was expected to be needed. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Lopez's 4 year extension the longest they've gone for a pitcher? And he's 27, whereas Gray is 33. 

I think they'll definitely offer the Qualifying Offer and he will definitely reject it. I'm on board with their strategy of not going long, and particularly not with pitchers. I honestly don't think they will go over three years and potentially not more than two. Some team will go at least four and perhaps even five.

(Specifically, I'll go on record as predicting, "Gray to the Reds." Prior experience there. Nashville native (and Vanderbilt grad) and known to be a homebody. Tons of roster flexibility and reason to spend with the kind of success they had this year and the number of young position players they have. The Cardinals check many of those boxes as well, but the Reds seem closer to winning. With young guys like Greene, Abbott and others, I could see Gray viewing himself as the grizzled veteran for Cincy like he was for the Twins.)

10 hours ago, davidborton said:

Bookmarked. Very helpful chronology.

@Brock Beauchamp, I'll put in a plug for the calendar portion to be linked at the top of the Forum page. 

@cjm0926, the one thing I think you're missing in the summary of what you think will happen is the picking up of options. I think the only two decisions to be made there are Polanco and Kepler. You seem to be implying they will be picked up, and I would agree. 

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

Why do you think they non-tender Farmer? Everything I've heard about him is positive and he's a decent fielder and hitter, especially against lefties. With this team being a primary LH hitting club they need a guy like Farmer.

It is just something that is possible, I'm not sure if they will or not. Similar to Gio Urshela last year, they may not want to pay that much for his last arb year and rather save his spot for a new acquisition or young guy such as Brooks Lee

Also, it's going to be a long offseason.

When they lost last night, I said, "At least I won't spend as much time on Twins Daily the next few months." And now I've just spent an hour on Twins Daily. I'm excited to see how the offseason plays out. 

5 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

@cjm0926, the one thing I think you're missing in the summary of what you think will happen is the picking up of options. I think the only two decisions to be made there are Polanco and Kepler. You seem to be implying they will be picked up, and I would agree. 

Yea I definetly think they will pick up Kepler and Polanco's option. It wouldn't make any sense not to. The real question is if they are on the 2024 Opening Day Roster. There is trade value to be had with each of them it just depends how the FO views them for the 2024 season, and could choose alternate routes

4 hours ago, cjm0926 said:

It is just something that is possible, I'm not sure if they will or not. Similar to Gio Urshela last year, they may not want to pay that much for his last arb year and rather save his spot for a new acquisition or young guy such as Brooks Lee

One more, and then I'm GONNA pay bills and do some neglected desk work.

Regretfully, I do see Farmer as the question mark. I say regretfully, because I like him a lot. I see him as bringing more to the table next year than Urshela would have this year, and isn't this projection a little lower than where Urshela was projected (and ended up).

I actually wonder about Gordon as a non-tender. It's easy to assume keeping him because of how cheap he'll be, but I wonder if they might see the roster spot as more valuable. It stinks for him, but with his injury and the amount of progress other guys made, I'm guessing he's pretty far down the depth chart. 

15 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

One more, and then I'm GONNA pay bills and do some neglected desk work.

Regretfully, I do see him as the question mark. I say regretfully, because I like him a lot. I see him as bringing more to the table next year than Urshela would have this year, and isn't this projection a little lower than where Urshela was projected (and ended up).

I actually wonder about Gordon as a non-tender. It's easy to assume keeping him because of how cheap he'll be, but I wonder if they might see the roster spot as more valuable. It stinks for him, but with his injury and the amount of progress other guys made, I'm guessing he's pretty far down the depth chart. 

Oh I certainly like Farmer as well, and he definetly brings an intangible quality with his presence and leadership. You are correct, his expected arb salary is a bit lower than Urshela's was last year, but Urshela had an OPS+ 22 points higher than Farmer had this year. Although it is not the end all-be all, Farmer's defense at SS was not liked at all by the metrics this year. It is unfortunate, but it appears with the salary and upcoming talent that he will be playing elsewhere next summer. As for Gordon, he has definetly slid down the pecking order, but I dont see the Twins dumping him for nothing given he has 4 years left of team control and just as recent as last year showed some very solid upside. 

Good luck with your desk work!!!

1 hour ago, cjm0926 said:

It is just something that is possible, I'm not sure if they will or not. Similar to Gio Urshela last year, they may not want to pay that much for his last arb year and rather save his spot for a new acquisition or young guy such as Brooks Lee

I hope you're wrong, though what you say makes sense.

Thanks, Brian, great job! I'm looking forward to the off-season

5 hours ago, Not Greg Gagne said:

What's the over/under on the amount of free agents that are back next year? I'd be tempted to set it at 0.5 with the bet essentially being will Taylor re-sign.

Gray, Gallo, and Keuchel are a definite "no" and Maeda, Pagan, and Mahle depend on how they like some young arms (which I think they do) and Paddack's health/stuff (which seems fine). Solano is the only other possible returner to me and I think there is enough infield talent elsewhere on the roster to find a platoon 1B/UTL option.

I will take that bet.  Here is my probabilities

High Probability - Solano, Taylor.   Solano is by far the best hitter and provided suitable defense.  The Twins won because of their depth including Solano and Taylor.  I think both are high on the Twins priority for depth signings

50/50 - Twins have seemed to like Pagan more than any other fan.  That they were rewarded this year, may encourage them to try again, even though in general they do not give contracts to relievers.  

Low probability - Gray, Maeda  and Mahle.  Signing Gray would negate a possible draft pick,  however of all the pitchers,  he has an excellent track record and wouldn't break the bank.  Of the top pitchers he will likely end up with the cheapest contract.  His comment about wanting to make a run in the playoffs also caught my eye,  I think he fits best in a mid market team and he knows it after his Yankee experience, if he thinks the Twins have a the highest probability of small market teams to make a run in the future he may be willing to sign with the Twins.  Everything in my gut says no,  but we also went through the Correa saga last year.   Maeda is also another player that would likely come fairly cheap for his expected performance.  Mahle is the one with the highest ceiling but with Paddack already at a innings limit likely,  its probably not in the Twins interest to get another pitcher that will be unable to perform for a couple months.  

38 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks, Brian, great job! I'm looking forward to the off-season

I'm not Brian, but thank you... I think🤣

2 hours ago, cjm0926 said:

Oh I certainly like Farmer as well, and he definetly brings an intangible quality with his presence and leadership. You are correct, his expected arb salary is a bit lower than Urshela's was last year, but Urshela had an OPS+ 22 points higher than Farmer had this year. Although it is not the end all-be all, Farmer's defense at SS was not liked at all by the metrics this year. It is unfortunate, but it appears with the salary and upcoming talent that he will be playing elsewhere next summer. As for Gordon, he has definetly slid down the pecking order, but I dont see the Twins dumping him for nothing given he has 4 years left of team control and just as recent as last year showed some very solid upside. 

Good luck with your desk work!!!

Mlbtraderumors shows his projected arbitration salary at 6.6 million which is reasonable for a super utility player.  We need a solid backup SS.  And with what we gave up to get him we may as well get more value from that trade… jk.  But anyways he is exactly what we thought we were getting with Marwin a few seasons back when we gave him a 2 year contract.  I’m not saying he is a given to return but I think if nothing else we will get him back because we could probably trade since the free agent market for SS especially is weak.  

I think the Twins have a chance of resigning Gray.  Depends on how much he wants.  He is durable enough meaning he avoids the serious injuries.  If the will go 3 at 70 million the Twins should be in the conversation.  At least with Free agency the way it is too heavy with starting pitching helps the Twins in that they can find a starter if they want. There will be options.  And the rotation would be my biggest concern going into the offseason with the need for a number 2-3 starter and depth too.  Next year we have Lopez, Paddack, Ober, Varland, and……. A good number 2-3 would keep the rotation a strength.  
 

Im curious to see the Pagan saga play out.  Do we or don’t we resign him.  
 

I can see the Twins resigning Solano.  Depends on if they want to keep Farmer and Gordon and Castro next season.  I think one of the bunch is gone.  The biggest reason not to bring him back is so his playing time goes to Lee so Lee can compete for rookie of the year.  Doesn’t the team get an incentive pick if the rookie of the year starts the season on the team and plays the whole season?
 

If Gray signs elsewhere for 50 million + we essentially traded a # 20-25 pick. (I forget where Petty was Drafted) for 2 years of Gray and a 31-35 pick.  That’s a good deal.  

Wow 😲! Nicely laid out.