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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    If Max Kepler has any trade value, do you trade him now?
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    Yup the FO's decisions created this offense. And whether they were wrong about evaluation, development, or offensive philosophy, those are all what they are paid to get right
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    Looking at the hitters, the "starters" in RF, CF, 3B all should be targets for improvement. RF: Playing Solano at 1B and Kirilloff in the outfield is an approach, but Solano will be exposed. Wallner up seems obvious now. CF: Austin Martin up is the only hope here, and would be a roll of the dice 3B: until Lewis is back, this is looking harsh. Brooks Lee up would be another gamble And even if you achieve that, your bench would be Taylor, Farmer, Vazquez, and Castro. All guys you want to hide in the lineup one at a time. And you also would still have three stalwarts with bad OBP in Correa, Buxton, and Gallo Ugh. Get used to this I guess
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    I know you want to heighten the suspense, Mr. Schwerzler, but your litany of movable parts ignored the two elephants in the room: Max Kepler is replaceable in right, and Byron Buxton should be the everyday center fielder, not the everyday DH. There, now Lewis at 3B and Kirilloff in the outfield and Julien and Miranda at DH and 1B can all find a home in the lineup most of the time. Heck, next year, we might even have room for Martin at 2B and Wallner in the outfield
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    All this. The all-or-nothing results pointed out in the article aren't some fluke of luck. They are the predictable result of not enough baserunners, and not enough contact to keep them moving. On the rare days that 5 or 6 mighty uppercut whiffs connect for an extra-base-hit, you get 7 plus runs and look amazing. On the twice-as-likely days when only 2 or 3 swings connect, you look like, well, the Twins. I'm here to preach that your love for BA is NOT clinging to a pre-analytics world. Here's the math that Billy Beane listened to that Falvine refuse to hear: it's the number of games where you score runs that matter, not the number of runs you score. As far as specific hitting approach goes, the (broken) SLG approach loves maximum exit velocity and high launch angle, which makes an easy formula for strikeouts - just pitch high and low, and watch the popups and choppers and whiffs pile up. The (useful) OBP approach loves a level swing and letting pitches travel, defanging vertical movement and velocity changes. Yes, it means Luis Arraez will hit fewer homers, but on the other hand, Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton could leave a few MPH of exit velocity in the tank and still clear the wall.
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    6. The Royals aren't getting help from their AAA club any time soon.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Shocking revelations! You found fans from Schaumburg and the Gold Coast that aren't destined for that level of The Abyss reserved for insufferable Cubs fans.
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    The real solution is Buxton in center, and then Gallo pushes either Larnach or Kirilloff to DH. Taylor and Solano remain bench/platoon options. It is a matter of time before this happens. Right? If Larnach or Kirilloff cannot perform well enough to start, which may take months to find out, then Lewis, Julien, Wallner, or Martin get a shot, and Taylor and Solano still stay on the bench.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Maybe Maeda should get the same treatment as Polanco and Kirilloff and, soon, Lewis: rehab in the minors until everything looks just so and the weather warms up. It would be a huge boost to have Ober start the year with the Twins, anyway, given how he looks right now. I don't have much confidence that this will happen, unfortunately.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    Too bad for politics (and time zones). It would be amazing to see MLB teams in Santo Domingo, Caracas, San Juan, Mexico City, Seoul, Taipei, or Tokyo. I don't think those teams would have any attendance or marketing issues. Talk about ensuring the future of the sport!
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    Happily, Retrosheets exists and is awesome. I count 17 appearances of 2 or more innings, 12 of more than 1 inning, and 29 appearances of one inning or less (18 were less than 1 inning, he was kind of a LOOGY too). So my memory wasn't horrible, he did see a substantial number of 2+ inning appearances (once every ten games). But definitely not exclusively a long reliever.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    Exactly what I came here to say. You are describing Mark Guthrie in 1992. Not a mop-up guy whose performance level is unlikely to matter much, but a multi-inning, effective reliever who lets you survive a short start without sacrificing either that game or the whole next week of bullpen effectiveness.
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    As a fan, it's always hard to judge, but my eye test says that the baserunning and defense are not being executed to these players' talents, which I put down to preparation level, and see as the manager's responsibility. How much of that is minor leaguers being thrown into the fire due to injury? Hard to tell. But I suspect that too many meltdowns and gaffes in close games or against tough competition are in the offing. By the numbers, I know that our baserunning is abysmal. Anyone got other evidence to support my grumpy bias?
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    Well, if the Twins want everyone throwing 100, with a frisbee slider they throw half the time, then they are *all* gonna be relief pitchers. In which case maybe just lean into it and piggyback 4 starters with 4 other starters, and have a 5-man one-inning pen. They actually have the personnel this year to do exactly that: Ryan, Gray, PLopez, Maeda as primaries Mahle, Ober, Varland, Winder as secondaries Duran, JLopez, Alcala, Thielbar, Pagan as the pen With SWR, Henriquez, Jax, Moran, Megill, Santana, Sands, and Balazovic in St Paul Never gonna happen, but they aren't going to suddenly start stressing tricky 92 MPH fastballs that let pitchers go 7 innings, either. Le sigh.
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    "Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse." I like how you worked in a real post-game Baldelli quote.
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Even without injuries, is he maybe competition for Gordon's roster spot?
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV ... 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Cue "that escalated quickly" meme
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Nice, unexpected observation! I wonder how many of those 16 infield dots in the spray chart were when he was shifted. Fun to imagine the havoc in opposing infields, and the frustration of pitchers deciding whether to pitch up to avoid a .400 average on grounders or down to avoid upper deck home runs. Aside: can someone interpret the spray chart dots for me? Are they where the ball hit the ground first, or where it was fielded? I'm guessing number 1, but I don't want to assume...
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    Thanks for the well researched and fascinating history. And the reference to Foster besting Rube Waddell reminded me of this link that the stats lovers should find fascinating: https://www.baseball-reference.com/articles/negro-leagues-major-leagues-todd-peterson.shtml The link provides statistical evidence that the Negro Leagues were at least equal to the white "major leagues" of their time. Wonderfully done and eye opening for those of us raised on legends of Hornsby, Ruth, and Cobb, but not Foster, Gibson, and Paige.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    I don't know whether I agree, but I like this bold, optimistic take.
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    Wallner would be the other player who could push in, but less likely given he is also a left-handed corner outfielder. The acquisition of Taylor keeps both Celestino and Garlick off of a healthy roster, IMO
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    Yep, this is what I am thinking if Kirilloff cannot perform. My other thought is don't sacrifice good, or even adequate, defense elsewhere to make your next first baseman. So yes to Julien. But no to Gallo, Larnach, Lewis, or Lee. As for Miranda or Polanco, you need to have a replacement (Lewis) with *better* defense to make it make sense. Can anyone tell me where Wallner would fit? Too good a defender to sacrifice to first base, or a possible option that doesnt cost you elsewhere?
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    I don't mind at all that Miranda has been handed third base, especially with Farmer as a backup. However, Urshela over Gallo at the same price is a no-brainer on this roster. I wonder if other teams are lowballing the Kepler offers because they see the obvious roster crunch and they know the Twins must deal. Would love to know what the offers look like.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    These moves create a situation where each roster spot is held by someone whose floor is closer to "average value" than "replacement value."
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    Maybe Kirilloff third if he shows he can, just to break up the only righties we have that can hit.
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