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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Nice job by Pagán. Big hit from Gallo. They need to win the series today.
  2. jorgenswest
    I did a blog on this data earlier. There isn’t a linear correlation. Look at the bottom teams in runs scored. Strike out too little and it hurts your run scoring because you lack power (WAS, CLE). Strikeout too often and it hurts your run scoring as you aren’t putting enough balls in play. Is it more so this year with the increase in stolen bases? This year’s dot plot looked more parabolic. Look at the top 5 teams in runs scored and you will see three in the middle of the strikeout rate data slotted 14,15,16. Is the balance between balls in play and the strikeouts that come with power important? Did the Twins destroy that balance by trading Arraez and the signing Gallo hoping he could approach the .795 OPS they lost? Gallo may match that OPS. I think it would have helped a lot more to get that .795 the way Arraez did. The Twins need that balance.
  3. jorgenswest
    Duran was their 19th ranked prospect in the MLB pipeline at the time. Maciel was 11th. Including a 19th ranked prospect with a 4.73 ERA in low A Ball. I think they didn’t have any trouble pulling the trigger. He was not a top prospect. He had a big arm but poor numbers in their system. He was immediately much better with the Twins.
  4. jorgenswest
    Strong starting pitching hasn’t carried them so far. No pitching can overcome when bats go dead for a week. They have yet to win more than two series in a row against any competition. How would they put up that consistency in the playoffs? Now is the time to show their potential. The next 5 series are against losing teams. Can they dominate through the end of the month? I want to see that before they stay selling off assets.
  5. jorgenswest
    The 21 Braves are a good example. They were not buyers at the deadline. They did buy low on three veteran outfielders in Soler, Rosario and Duvall. Soler and Rosario were having particularly poor seasons. They get them they traded Pablo Sandoval, Alex Jackson (failed prospect out of options) and minor league reliever Kasey Kalich. They also added reliever Rich Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson who was also going to be out of options with a 5.88 ERA. The Braves wisely identified two outfielders they could fix and turn around their seasons. It cost virtually nothing. In fact they received cash with Rosario in the Sandoval deal. Can the Twins identify those buy low turn around candidates to acquire? It does seem like they have a few of those candidates already on the roster.
  6. jorgenswest
    Not a perfect year but the Phillies showed sustained stretches of excellence. In May I suggested that if the Twins could win 4 series in a row, I would be a buyer at the deadline. They have yet to surpass two series in a row. You prompt had me go look at the Phillies last year. At the end of May their 21-29 record was pretty dismal. Then they won not 4 but 5 series in a row including 9 wins in a row and a stretch of 15-2 in June. That is what I need to see. Time is running short but they have 5 series against losing teams before the break. They need to go dominate and then I am in.
  7. jorgenswest
    2014 is a good season to consider. Both the Giants and Royals had to win a wild card game which meant they had to win three series to get to the World Series and then win the series. They won 88 and 89 regular season games. It is possible the Twins could get there. I wonder if the season was unique in its balance. There were no 100 win teams and no 100 loss teams. There were only 6 teams with 90 or more wins and 6 with 90 or more losses. The Giants had the fourth most wins in the NL and 8 games behind the top team. The Royals had the fourth most wins in the AL and 9 games back of the leader. Can the Twins get to that status? It is hard to imagine they will be within 10 of the AL leader or have the fourth most wins in the AL. I do appreciate how this shows their pitching can be impactful in the playoffs. I think I need to see them dominate these next 5 series against below .500 teams before I would advocate they make trades.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think this is part of the process a lot of young players go through. The league adjusted to him and now he has to adjust. That might be done better at AAA but the work can also be done at this level. Change is hard. Expect a drop in performance before a gain. As for 3B the numbers suggest that he has been close to average this year? His numbers are nowhere near the negatives Julien’s posts at 2B. He has a positive DRS and only Castro is better among Twins 3B. His UZR/150 is slightly negative but also only bettered by Castro. Farmer, Solano and Lewis are much worse. His RAA is a -4 but that stat for 3Bs is less sticky than the other two. By less sticky it varies more from year to year and less predictive. Castro again has the best RAA. The numbers suggest that he can play a passable 3B. The Twins could sell low on Miranda and try to bring in a reliever for him. I wouldn’t sell low. I would try to develop this asset. He needs that opportunity to adjust and that can take time. They can send him down to do this work by giving Castro a lot of play at 3B and bringing up an OF. I am encouraged by Celestino’s high walk rate and very low strike out rate. He has walked 50% more often than he has struck out in AAA. He might be ready for another opportunity. These Lamont Wade type skills are not ones that seem to be favored by the management.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think the strike outs point to more development is necessary. If Severino is striking out 33% against AA pitchers that number has to go up against major league pitchers. Camargo has 73 strike outs and 13 walks against AAA pitchers. That isn’t going to work. The run scoring context in St. Paul leads to distorted OPS and ERA. Strike outs and walks give a better picture of readiness. They aren’t ready to help and the Twins need more balls in play. Not less.
  10. jorgenswest
    Severino, Camargo and Williams have very high strike out rates. Wallner and Larnach are better but also high.
  11. jorgenswest
    There is not a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. When I looked at the data earlier this year balance seemed important. Teams the strike out the least didn’t score as many runs as they also had less power. Teams that strike out a lot also were not among the runs scored leaders. They had power but contact seems an important part of that balance. Trading Arraez and adding Gallo destroyed that balance. If you just look at OPS Gallo’s .764 could end close to the .795 Arraez provided last year. Without the balance I don’t think it would be nearly as valuable though.
  12. jorgenswest
    If they bring in offense they really need to bring in bats that are going to slot in the top three of the order. Anything else won’t move the needle and they may as well hope on the guys they have achieving their 70th percentile instead of 30th. I don’t think Turner is going to move the needle. He is no longer a viable 3B and I am not confident he will be significantly better than a Kirilloff/Solano platoon. They need to aim somewhere better than him and be prepared to trade from their best prospects. Are you ready to do that?
  13. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. I wouldn’t either. Someone will send a promising prospect.
  14. jorgenswest
    If they can win the next two series (or get to 4 in a row by deadline), I would support buying. I do so with the following assumptions. trading for anyone of value will need to be an overpay to win the deal. they will need to trade off prospect assets or less likely budget assets to a team wanting to cut salary On the pitching side everyone can use bullpen help. Those can be risky pick ups. I don’t think they can add anyone better than Polanco to the infield. I wonder if there is any thought to giving Polanco time at 3B during rehab or letting Julien take some balls there. Would his poor defense cost more runs at 3B? With Wallner, Larnach, Celestino and my irrational hope of Buxton by playoffs should they part with assets to trade for an outfielder? I think the two catchers are doing a great job with the staff. I wouldn’t want to replace either. A trade for Hader might take something like Schobel and the competitive balance pick. Does that pick need to be traded prior to its use or can the player taken be traded at the deadline? I think they need to trade it prior.
  15. jorgenswest
    Slash stats need a very large sample size. ERA needs years. A batter or pitcher really can run into a multiyear stretch of “luck” on those. There are some stats that do become stable. Strikeout rate and walk rate stabilize early. Pitch level stats will stabilize earlier. The better teams can use those to project and improve performance the better they will be at developing a roster. OPS is great for telling the story of the past but its components need a large sample size. Broadcasters compound this by reporting slash stats in splits by handedness or months or even weeks. They may tell an interesting story of the but are virtually meaningless for the current at bat.
  16. jorgenswest
    His slash stat performance didn’t change Baldelli’s plan. Jeffers saw more of the lefties and missed more of the better right handed pitchers early on. I also am not sure how he did against lefties. Was he striking out? Was he hitting the ball hard? Was he staying in the strike zone? That is the data that would better describe how he did and the kind of at bats to build on. Baldelli also gave him a pinch hit opportunity in his second game against a position player where he hit a home run. That early home run off Stallings made his OPS look good for quite a while if somehow a slash stat early in season had any meaning to anyone. The same can be done for Miranda. He doesn’t need to play everyday. They can pick spots where he is more likely to be successful and build on those at bats.
  17. jorgenswest
    At the start of the season Baldelli had Jeffers starting in the more favorable match ups and the majority of the few lefties. It allowed Jeffers to find success after a struggle last year. He can also pick his spots for Miranda right now. Miranda showed enough promise in 21 and 22 to give him plenty of time to work through this struggle. He doesn’t need to play everyday to do that work.
  18. jorgenswest
    A similar article probably was written three years after the fact about 2018 Escobar trade. The top prospect acquired had an injury riddled 2021 AAA season with almost a walk an inning and a 5.06 ERA. It was easy to forget in the moment that it was a 23 year old kid that still had plenty of time to figure it out.
  19. jorgenswest
    They have had other opportunities and didn’t come through. They take the Blue Jay and Brewer series and then fall to a scuffling Tiger team that was done like 1-12 in June. They win a series against the Yankees and Royals and lose to an 8-21 White Sox team. They have an opportunity to show consistency that they have yet to show this year. I would judge that as a step forward.
  20. jorgenswest
    That is two series wins in a row. They haven’t made it to three yet. It would be great to go into the break by getting that third in a row against the Orioles.
  21. jorgenswest
    Wasn’t the cost of taking Flexen’s contract paid by the Mets in order for them to add Trevor Gott without giving up a player (other than one they were already going to lose to DFA)? The Twins could incentivize a team to take Kepler’s contract by sweetening the deal with another player. Looking at BTV Castro and Solano are in Gott’s value range. Would you look for a team interested in adding either Castro or Solano and then instead of seeking a prospect you would ask them to take Kepler’s remaining contract instead? I would prefer getting a prospect and eating the cost of the contract. Better yet if they find someone interested in Kepler, offer to pick up his contract in hopes of getting a prospect.
  22. jorgenswest
    Fastball speed is a good indicator but velocity down slightly also might point to changes in spin rate and even sharpness of location. It is unlikely everything else remained the same.
  23. jorgenswest
    He might try to cut down on his strike out rate. He 96 strike outs in 259 at bats. He also needs to get better defensively. It looks like they see him at 3B instead of 2B. He is going to need the time to get to a passable level at that spot. There is space at 3B in AAA but the strikeout and walk rates need to get better.
  24. jorgenswest
    I can get behind the swap in outfielders though I don’t expect anyone in AAA striking out 30% of the time at that level to be very effective in the majors. If anything the Twins need bats that can put balls in play. I can’t get behind the catchers. Camargo has 69 strike outs and 13 walks in the pitching poor AAA. He is not ready. Give him time at AAA. Williams is not a catcher and is not being developed to be a catcher. I am not a buyer at the deadline unless the Twins win 4 series in a row. They have a chance to do that with the weak July schedule. They don’t have much to sell. A Gray offer would have to be pretty good because worst case they have a comp pick. Gallo, Kepler and Taylor would likely bring back a return of a player that is a fringe rule 5 decision or out of options for next year. They might expect someone like the Alex Presley return they acquired when they traded Morneau.
  25. jorgenswest
    Williams and Wallner strike out 30% in AAA. I am not sure if that will translate well though I would like Wallner to get a chance. Since his return to AAA about a month ago Gilberto Celestino has an OBP of .400 and more walks than strike outs. His strike out rate is 10.8%. Does his glove, right handed bat and contact skills fit the Twins needs better right now?
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