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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    If this is a short term call up until Larnach is ready Tuesday it is for two games. The Twins are limited on how many times a player can be optioned in a season. The Twins may eventually risk losing Garlick if he is sent back too many times, Would you use a two game call up on Wallner? Before you respond “call him up for good”, let’s suppose the Twins were looking for a two game call up with one game against a left handed pitcher. Should it be Wallner or Garlick?
  2. jorgenswest
    He has had other similar stretches of 100ish at bats. I expect the next two months will be better. I think his defense and experience at catcher are valuable to the team and worthy of the contract. I would shift his share of starts from around 60% towards 40% though.
  3. jorgenswest
    Moran has been valuable this year. He has inherited mitre runners than any other reliever on the team and closed the door. There are three relievers who tend to come in with runners on base. Moran leads the way allowing only 1 in 15 to score. Moran 1/15 Stewart 4/12 Pagán 4/10 No one else has seen more than 4 inherited runners. The team as a whole is 16/55 for 29%. I don’t know if this is meaningful moving forward but the number of fires Moran has put out this year should be noticed.
  4. jorgenswest
    I care about looking forward and how the past will inform looking forward. I will never be swayed by a partial season sample. My original comment that he tends to give up runs in crooked numbers and also put up a good number of clean outings is what I expect moving forward based on looking back long enough. I think there are game situations where going in with that expectation or likelihood is more helpful to winning that game than others. The Twins really needed a clean outing when down 3 mid game. They got the clean outing. It helped them win the game.
  5. jorgenswest
    I was looking across both seasons and I think I referenced last year. Your point might be that he is a different pitcher now and last year doesn’t matter. I am not sure he has changed from the pitcher that is prone to command issues that can lead to walks or hard contact. I also wonder if we should consider how he has done with inherited runners.
  6. jorgenswest
    He did last year also. His clean outing rate isn’t bad. His crooked number rate is troubling. That probably won’t change. Down 6-3 mid game is a good spot for him. Giving up 2 or 3 isn’t much different than giving up 1. He has a good chance to keep it 6-3. He probably isn’t the guy you want pitching with a 6-3 lead.
  7. jorgenswest
    True. However the sample size where strike out rate and walk rate start to stabilize is much lower than HR/9. The minor leagues would likely be different but at the major league level strike out rate begins in stabilize at 70 batters faced and home run rate stabilizes at 1320 batters faced. This article from Fangraphs is from 2010 and you can probably find more up to date studies. I would think that the magnitude of difference between strike out rate and home run rate is pretty similar today and would be similar in the minor leagues.
  8. jorgenswest
    The bench moves provided the offense. Letting Ober continue after the awful start worked. I don’t think any manager would have replaced him before the three run home run. In game as far as bench and pen moves I don’t think Rocco could have been more effective compared to the results of the bench hitters and pen. In anticipation of an opener he could constructed the lineup so the first three hitters were left handed. Why not start with Julien, Kirilloff and Gallo followed by Buxton and Correa? If the left handed trio goes down Manaea comes in against a long string of right handed batters. If they get on base Buxton and Correa are there to drive them in. Ultimately if those right handed batters that started the game are as awful as they were last night there is nothing a manager can do to hit the ball for them.
  9. jorgenswest
    Huh? Solano, Garlick and Jeffers were on base in 6 of their 8 plate appearances including the only run after starting on the bench. Hardly neutralized. Give credit to Baldelli for countering the opener so masterfully. It was the starting line up that was the problem. The bench moves were the only offense.
  10. jorgenswest
    My apologies for derailing this thread. Solano’s slash stats with runners in scoring position this year. 438/591/563 for an OPS of 1153. If you change it to runners on it is 1104. I believe BR is up to date through yesterday. He has had few opportunities with runners in scoring position and has done very well when those opportunities have been presented. Like RBIs it means nothing for the future at this sample.
  11. jorgenswest
    Both RBIs and WPA similarly describe the past neither. They both are heavily based on opportunity. Neither is a predictor of the future.
  12. jorgenswest
    He is third of the Twins position players in WPA.
  13. jorgenswest
    The narrative from a few on Kepler in CF has created its own reality on TD. Rocco once talked about how they preferred him in RF because he is so good in that spot. He may be a better CF than Gordon for example but this isn’t an individual game. It is a team game and the overall outfield play is what matters. While Kepler may have been somewhat better than Gordon in CF he is much better in RF. The same can probably be said about Gallo or Celestino and maybe Castro. If they get to the point where the only options are Larnach, Kirilloff and Kepler then it might be the best combo to play Kepler in CF.
  14. jorgenswest
    Did you see the game? Pop ups? Weak grounders? edit: I should have read to the bottom. I read it as you saw the at bats.
  15. jorgenswest
    Pagán has put up a “0 ER” in 12 of his 16 outings this year. Last year it was 40 of 61. In the outings where he gives up runs, teams put up crooked numbers way too often. I am the last to advocate for Pagán. I think I had the first comment in Seth’s article about the trade saying “Why would anyone want two years of Emilio Pagán?” I do wonder though if there is some value in his ratio of clean outings. Is it better than someone like Moran who has clean outing in 9 of 16 appearances but has a better ERA? Is this even a skill. I don’t know.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins should use those lower leverage roles on relievers like those mentioned in this article. It is waste to have Pagán in that role. He isn’t a reliable high leverage option. He hasn’t been for years. Pitching well in low leverage doesn’t matter if you can’t occasionally pitch well when it really matters. Give that role to anyone with upside that can move up into a permanent role in the pen. I hope they move on from Pagán and see if they have a in house option for those innings before they give up prospects in trade. I have hope that Brock Stewart is more than a temporary back end role. Same hope for De León. Henriquez might be able to help. The AAA data for a reliever at this point is worthless. I can’t advocate for any based on their AAA data. I can advocate for the Twins moving on from Pagán. Maeda is near pitching from the mound again. Does he return in a bullpen role? Maybe he takes Pagán’s spot.
  17. jorgenswest
    De León gets a chance to claim a spot in the pen and not give it back.
  18. jorgenswest
    They are both below average. Likely 15-20% below average. The stats do not support Jeffers being a better hitter than Vazquez moving forward this year. Vazquez is the superior defender. If the Twins are up against a quality starter I wouldn't give either a good chance to have an impact. They will need that superior game caller to keep that game close. It may be how the Twins are finding games for Jeffers. They get him in against a lefty or they give him the game against the poorer pitcher in day game after night game situations. Vazquez' stats are very skewed by the quality of opposing pitcher and the small ratio of plate appearances against lefties for which his OPS was 148 points greater last year. I am not here to defend Vazquez as a hitter though. I am here to argue that Jeffers' slash stats thus far do not support him being a better hitter going forward this season. If the Twins are interested in winning more this year it is not yet time for more Ryan Jeffers.
  19. jorgenswest
    I have to echo this here also. I couldn't disagree more. Our understanding of the meaning of those stats moving forward is very different. I think slash stats are virtually meaningless at this sample. At this point they offer no support for Jeffers being the better hitter moving forward. Did you know that Vazquez has a better DRC+ than Jeffers (81 vs 76) according to Baseball Prospectus? That measure factors in quality of opposing pitchers and quality of batted ball contact. I wish that slash stats were not available until much later in the season. They should not be used in support of any decision about moving forward with playing time or the line up. I wish that they weren't so heavily relied upon by broadcasters and writers.
  20. jorgenswest
    I couldn't disagree more. Our understanding of the meaning of those stats moving forward is very different. I think slash stats are virtually meaningless at this sample. At this point they offer no support for Jeffers being the better hitter moving forward. Did you know that Vazquez has a better DRC+ than Jeffers (81 vs 76) according to Baseball Prospectus? That measure factors in quality of opposing pitchers and quality of batted ball contact. They both perform better against left handed pitching over their careers but Vazquez has seen very little left handed pitching this year. I wish that slash stats were not available until much later in the season. They should not be used in support of any decision about moving forward with playing time or the line up. I wish that they weren't so heavily relied upon by broadcasters and writers.
  21. jorgenswest
    Way too early to believe slash stats have meaning for the future. I don’t believe they will be sacrificing very much offense by going forward with Vazquez.
  22. jorgenswest
    Slash stats aren’t very useful in season. They need such a large sample. I would hope they wouldn’t look to in season slash stats to make decisions. The have pitch level data and batted ball data that stabilizes much faster and can project performance better than previous slash stats. Based on the pitch and batted ball level data I am not too concerned about Nick Gordon. I am also not too encouraged by Ryan Jeffers thus far. I try to ignore the slash stats.
  23. jorgenswest
    Fans of several other teams might be wondering the same thing. The average OPS in the IL is nearly 800. Teams are scoring 5-6 runs per game. The average pitcher ERA is 5. The run scoring context is very different.
  24. jorgenswest
    Do you think it might be wise to get him at least 100 plate appearances in this reset before being worried about room? Slash stats will still be meaningless at that sample (100 PAs) but they can look at strike out rate. They will also assessing how he is handling AAA breaking balls. Entering this year Larnach has limited experience at AAA and he has not performed well there. He needs to dominate there over an extended weird of time.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins lost on this trade. I would take the same risk this July. My guess it might take something like 5 and then 15 in a two year contract to Mahle. I don’t think I would do that deal but it isn’t a clear “no” to me.
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