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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    He was pretty significant in yesterday’s win.
  2. jorgenswest
    He could get to 400 plate appearances but it would take those three having a long slump or injury.
  3. jorgenswest
    Long term plans? That would equate to contract extension talk. Probably not. 2024? Absolutely. He is the young. Played very well in AAA at 21. Rushed to the majors he stumbled but the potential he showed very young in AAA is showing up. He is in the midst of an age grouping of Larnach, Jeffers and Wallner and like them has time to improve.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think we would be buying high on Thomas in a career year. The Nationals need good under control players. Why trade him unless they feel they are selling high?
  5. jorgenswest
    They could play Gallo in CF also with Wallner in LF. With either Gallo or Kepler they would have a significant drop in CF as well as a significant drop in whichever corner they put Wallner. It doe s surprise me to see that Wallner has never played 1B or 3B. His arm would help at 3B. His height would help at 1B. I think lack of trying there (even in college) might add to evidence that he is a pretty poor corner OF.
  6. jorgenswest
    It is not ideal to call up someone from AAA right after a start. If that is the opt out date they probably need to make that decision now. Otherwise they end up short in the bullpen.
  7. jorgenswest
    Do the win this series without Emilio Pagán?
  8. jorgenswest
    Maybe Kirilloff with Gallo or Julien at 1B
  9. jorgenswest
    A six man rotation and 7 man pen is unwise. Are there any teams regularly using a seven man pen? One day after the break and the Twins 8 man bullpen is already over worked again. I have no ability to assess Keuchel’s readiness but if they believe he is one of their top 5 starters they need him on the roster now. Push Maeda to the bullpen. No to a 6 man rotation.
  10. jorgenswest
    Gallo’s .781 OPS is almost the same as the .795 they lost from 2022 Arraez. It would have been reasonable to think he could be around that .795 and replace what was lost. Gallo and Arraez have very different paths to their OPS. Assuming they are nearly the same, are both paths equally valuable to winning games in this Twins line up?
  11. jorgenswest
    I made the assumption that he was working hard over the break both on throwing and hitting. The work on the off days can have more strain than a game.
  12. jorgenswest
    Nice job by Pagán. Big hit from Gallo. They need to win the series today.
  13. jorgenswest
    I did a blog on this data earlier. There isn’t a linear correlation. Look at the bottom teams in runs scored. Strike out too little and it hurts your run scoring because you lack power (WAS, CLE). Strikeout too often and it hurts your run scoring as you aren’t putting enough balls in play. Is it more so this year with the increase in stolen bases? This year’s dot plot looked more parabolic. Look at the top 5 teams in runs scored and you will see three in the middle of the strikeout rate data slotted 14,15,16. Is the balance between balls in play and the strikeouts that come with power important? Did the Twins destroy that balance by trading Arraez and the signing Gallo hoping he could approach the .795 OPS they lost? Gallo may match that OPS. I think it would have helped a lot more to get that .795 the way Arraez did. The Twins need that balance.
  14. jorgenswest
    Duran was their 19th ranked prospect in the MLB pipeline at the time. Maciel was 11th. Including a 19th ranked prospect with a 4.73 ERA in low A Ball. I think they didn’t have any trouble pulling the trigger. He was not a top prospect. He had a big arm but poor numbers in their system. He was immediately much better with the Twins.
  15. jorgenswest
    Strong starting pitching hasn’t carried them so far. No pitching can overcome when bats go dead for a week. They have yet to win more than two series in a row against any competition. How would they put up that consistency in the playoffs? Now is the time to show their potential. The next 5 series are against losing teams. Can they dominate through the end of the month? I want to see that before they stay selling off assets.
  16. jorgenswest
    The 21 Braves are a good example. They were not buyers at the deadline. They did buy low on three veteran outfielders in Soler, Rosario and Duvall. Soler and Rosario were having particularly poor seasons. They get them they traded Pablo Sandoval, Alex Jackson (failed prospect out of options) and minor league reliever Kasey Kalich. They also added reliever Rich Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson who was also going to be out of options with a 5.88 ERA. The Braves wisely identified two outfielders they could fix and turn around their seasons. It cost virtually nothing. In fact they received cash with Rosario in the Sandoval deal. Can the Twins identify those buy low turn around candidates to acquire? It does seem like they have a few of those candidates already on the roster.
  17. jorgenswest
    Not a perfect year but the Phillies showed sustained stretches of excellence. In May I suggested that if the Twins could win 4 series in a row, I would be a buyer at the deadline. They have yet to surpass two series in a row. You prompt had me go look at the Phillies last year. At the end of May their 21-29 record was pretty dismal. Then they won not 4 but 5 series in a row including 9 wins in a row and a stretch of 15-2 in June. That is what I need to see. Time is running short but they have 5 series against losing teams before the break. They need to go dominate and then I am in.
  18. jorgenswest
    2014 is a good season to consider. Both the Giants and Royals had to win a wild card game which meant they had to win three series to get to the World Series and then win the series. They won 88 and 89 regular season games. It is possible the Twins could get there. I wonder if the season was unique in its balance. There were no 100 win teams and no 100 loss teams. There were only 6 teams with 90 or more wins and 6 with 90 or more losses. The Giants had the fourth most wins in the NL and 8 games behind the top team. The Royals had the fourth most wins in the AL and 9 games back of the leader. Can the Twins get to that status? It is hard to imagine they will be within 10 of the AL leader or have the fourth most wins in the AL. I do appreciate how this shows their pitching can be impactful in the playoffs. I think I need to see them dominate these next 5 series against below .500 teams before I would advocate they make trades.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think this is part of the process a lot of young players go through. The league adjusted to him and now he has to adjust. That might be done better at AAA but the work can also be done at this level. Change is hard. Expect a drop in performance before a gain. As for 3B the numbers suggest that he has been close to average this year? His numbers are nowhere near the negatives Julien’s posts at 2B. He has a positive DRS and only Castro is better among Twins 3B. His UZR/150 is slightly negative but also only bettered by Castro. Farmer, Solano and Lewis are much worse. His RAA is a -4 but that stat for 3Bs is less sticky than the other two. By less sticky it varies more from year to year and less predictive. Castro again has the best RAA. The numbers suggest that he can play a passable 3B. The Twins could sell low on Miranda and try to bring in a reliever for him. I wouldn’t sell low. I would try to develop this asset. He needs that opportunity to adjust and that can take time. They can send him down to do this work by giving Castro a lot of play at 3B and bringing up an OF. I am encouraged by Celestino’s high walk rate and very low strike out rate. He has walked 50% more often than he has struck out in AAA. He might be ready for another opportunity. These Lamont Wade type skills are not ones that seem to be favored by the management.
  20. jorgenswest
    I think the strike outs point to more development is necessary. If Severino is striking out 33% against AA pitchers that number has to go up against major league pitchers. Camargo has 73 strike outs and 13 walks against AAA pitchers. That isn’t going to work. The run scoring context in St. Paul leads to distorted OPS and ERA. Strike outs and walks give a better picture of readiness. They aren’t ready to help and the Twins need more balls in play. Not less.
  21. jorgenswest
    Severino, Camargo and Williams have very high strike out rates. Wallner and Larnach are better but also high.
  22. jorgenswest
    There is not a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. When I looked at the data earlier this year balance seemed important. Teams the strike out the least didn’t score as many runs as they also had less power. Teams that strike out a lot also were not among the runs scored leaders. They had power but contact seems an important part of that balance. Trading Arraez and adding Gallo destroyed that balance. If you just look at OPS Gallo’s .764 could end close to the .795 Arraez provided last year. Without the balance I don’t think it would be nearly as valuable though.
  23. jorgenswest
    If they bring in offense they really need to bring in bats that are going to slot in the top three of the order. Anything else won’t move the needle and they may as well hope on the guys they have achieving their 70th percentile instead of 30th. I don’t think Turner is going to move the needle. He is no longer a viable 3B and I am not confident he will be significantly better than a Kirilloff/Solano platoon. They need to aim somewhere better than him and be prepared to trade from their best prospects. Are you ready to do that?
  24. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. I wouldn’t either. Someone will send a promising prospect.
  25. jorgenswest
    If they can win the next two series (or get to 4 in a row by deadline), I would support buying. I do so with the following assumptions. trading for anyone of value will need to be an overpay to win the deal. they will need to trade off prospect assets or less likely budget assets to a team wanting to cut salary On the pitching side everyone can use bullpen help. Those can be risky pick ups. I don’t think they can add anyone better than Polanco to the infield. I wonder if there is any thought to giving Polanco time at 3B during rehab or letting Julien take some balls there. Would his poor defense cost more runs at 3B? With Wallner, Larnach, Celestino and my irrational hope of Buxton by playoffs should they part with assets to trade for an outfielder? I think the two catchers are doing a great job with the staff. I wouldn’t want to replace either. A trade for Hader might take something like Schobel and the competitive balance pick. Does that pick need to be traded prior to its use or can the player taken be traded at the deadline? I think they need to trade it prior.
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