Cap'n Piranha

7/$385M won’t get it done. If you want Ohtani for “only” 7 years, you’ll have to give him around $425M, at minimum. If you want Ohtani for “only” $55M/year, you’ll have to give him 10 years, at minimum. It’s why I proposed the 3/$300M. It keeps the contract “small”, while allowing Ohtani to chase a second $300M (or more) contract after 2026, while still only 32.

Spoiler Alert; to paraphrase Taylor Swift, the Twins and Shohei Ohtani are never ever ever getting back together. Yes, you read that correctly--I'm going to propose the unthinkable of unthinkables. The Twins should do whatever it takes to sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason. Here's why. The Twins lineup would go from promising to punishing in one move. Despite all the angst around the offense, metrics suggest it's not actually all that bad (just thoroughly mediocre). By WAR, the Twins hitters rank 13th; they're 12th by wRC+, 15th by wOBA, 16th by OPS, and 17th by runs. However, since June 1 (allowing for the inclusion of younger players like Julien, Wallner, Kiriloff, and Lewis) those ranks are 9th, 12th, 13th, and 20th. Adding the player with the best wRC+ in baseball, along with that young core, potential better health for Correa and Buxton, and even more young talent from the high minors (Lee, Martin, Keirsey, et al) would give the Twins a top 5 offense (on paper) The Twins rotation would go from uncertain to unquestionable in one move. While the rotation has been the main strength of the team for most of the year, 2 of the 3 most likely playoff starters (Gray and Maeda) are set to leave in free agency. That leaves the rotation with depth questions--can you count on Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to be healthy enough to not really need a quality 7th starter--as well as top end talent questions as well. Adding Ohtani, who admittedly has regressed from last year, would give the Twins 7 quality options in the rotation, as well as a very respectable 1-2 punch between Lopez and Ohtani The Twins gameday revenue would go from middling to massive in one move. When the Phillies signed Bryce Harper before the 2019 season, they sold 100k tickets in the first 24 hours (this was on top of an incremental 200k more tickets sold thanks to trading for Realmuto, among others (source). Ohtani is on an entirely different level, and would surely eclipse those numbers with ease. The Twins are currently averaging just over 24k fans a game (up from just over 22k last year, but quite a bit down from 2019's 28k a game [source]); it's not unreasonable to think the presence of Ohtani could drive attendance over 30k a game. An incremental 6k fans every game, multiplied by 81 games, multiplied by $50 (estimated spend per fan) yields over $24M in new revenue. The Twins off-field revenue would go from lacking to lucratve in one move. Employing the most popular baseball player in the game would be hugely profitable off the field; new markets (specifically Japan) would be opened up. Merch sales would be truly nationwide for the first time in a decade or more. Even in Minnesota, the amount of Ohtani merch the Twins could move would be astronomical. The dramatic surge in local popularity this move would drive would be very helpful to the team as they look to negotiate a new TV deal, and look for other sponsors as well. The Twins playoff odds over the next few years go from good to great in one move. The AL Central looks to be a wasteland for the next few years--only Detroit and Cleveland have top half farm systems (source), and even then it's just barely at 13th and 15th. The White Sox are 20th and the Royals somehow have the 29th system in baseball. In short, you have 4 flawed at best, downright bad at worst teams without a clear path to marked improvement in the short term. The Twins would be clear favorites in the AL Central, and would all but guarantee multiple home playoff games every year, which are massively profitable. 35k fans spending, let's say $75 each, is $2.6M a game. Play in 4-6 home games, and that's another $10M-$15M in revenue. The question now is--how do the Twins get this done? To start, you can make this move now, thanks to the large amounts of payroll coming off the books after this season. Between Gray, Gallo, Mahle, MAT, Floro, Pagan, Maeda, and Solano the Twins clear almost $48.5M off the books (and that includes only Maeda's base pay, not any incentives). Find a trade partner for Kepler and Polanco (rendered expendable by the presence of Wallner/Larnach/Martin/Lewis and Julien/Martin/Lewis/Lee respectively), and that number surges to $64.4M. Decline arbitration for Farmer, and now the number is north of $70M (source). This allows the Twins to choose between a couple of different options; Go toe-to-toe with the big boys, and offer Ohtani an 8 year, $500M contract. Ohtani sets every conceivable contract record, and the Twins still don't enter into the luxury tax. For a team like the Dodger to match that, the effect is more like that of an 8 year, $650M contract, or they could do a 15 year, $750M contract to minimize luxury tax spend. Either way, that might be hard to swallow for any team (maybe not the Mets--but if Ohtani wants to win, why would he go to the Mets). Get really creative, and go all-in for the next 3 years with a 3 year, $300M contract. Ohtani would get to re-enter free agency at the age of 32 (he turns 30 in early July of 2024), setting himself up for a second massive contract. The Twins sidestep any potential aging pitfalls in years 4 and after, while minimizing the Pohald's cash outlays (and freeing up payroll space for 2027 when the collection of exciting young players starts to get expensive). All in all, I'm entirely convinced it won't happen, but if you squint just hard enough, there's enough crazy-like-a-fox logic to give me hope.

Rocco got lucky tonight. This was Duran’s 3rd appearance in 4 games, and came after pitching the day before—that’s not a good idea, and we were fortunate it didn’t come back to bite us (that last pitch to Marte was pretty clearly outside—if that’s called correctly, the bases are loaded for Corbin Carroll). This highlights what I’ve been saying for years about Rocco—he treats every game the Twins have a 3 run or less lead as if it’s game 7 of the WS, which means his best pen options are constantly unavailable, or on the verge. If he lets Gray go at least one more inning on Thursday (Gray was at 77 pitches, and had just submitted an 8 pitch 7th inning), or used options other than Jax and Duran in a 3 run game, maybe you don’t need to get lucky to finish off a 1 run game.

If I remember correctly, Ryan started the year with short hair; based on the picture above, it appears he is growing it out. Is it possible Joe Ryan is Bizarro Samson?

In essence, the Twins could have had Justin Verlander for $23M for the remainder of this year and next (and potentially $17.5M if his 2025 option vests, which it does at 140 IP), had they been willing to give up a decent but not great prospect. Thsi is why the Twins won't win (not that I think they should have done the deal, as this team is not WS caliber, even with Verlander)--absolute refusal to actually commit to what it takes to win.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/mets-trade-justin-verlander-astros.html Return is Drew Gilbert, soon to be 23 year old OF in AA with a .713 OPS. Fangraphs has him as Astros' top prospect, 49th overall. Seems high based on that production/level/age. No details on if the Mets are eating any money, or if the Astros are taking on all $50M between this year and next.

"Hey Falvey, why do you think you shouldn't be held responsible for the roster dumpster fire?"

Hot rumor coming in--Falvine are considering a career change.

If anything, the Civale trade further reinforces that the Twins should sell, or at least not give up future assets for mediocre veterans. If the Twins need to be buyers to outperform an aggressively mediocre Guardians team trading away its best players, that says volumes about the improbability of beating actual good teams in the postseason.

If by recent years, you mean since 2021, I agree. The Twins were absolutely competitive in 2019, but due to injuries and bad luck, didn’t make any noise. Hard to blame them for the bizarre season that was 2020. 2017/2018 don’t count against Falvine, since they were still trying to build up from the disaster that was 2016. Dont get me wrong, I think significant changes need to be made at pretty much every level of the organization this off-season. But to pretend the Falvine regime has been 7 years of famine is just not accurate.

If 5 runs in 10 innings is a positive offensive night to you, then selling is definitely the right course.

I'd be happy with Soto as a Twin, but I have to think SD's price starts with Lee, Ober, and a player to be named later (that player being Walker Jenkins). Just last year the Padres gave up Gore, Abrams, Hassell (and more) for Soto--sure he has less control now, but a trade of Soto essentially means the Padres are entering a rebuild-type phase. That's a hard sell to a team with a top 3 payroll, which means they're going to demand a huge return. Quasi-established MLB players/AAAA guys are not going to get it down, even if there's 8 of them.

I would argue the opposite--the Angels might be the team least able to make these trades, because they might be in the worst cap situation of all. Assuming the Angels re-sign Ohtani and Giolito (since they're still long shots to make the playoffs--16% according to fangraphs--they have to for this deal to be anything other than a massive mistake), it's not unreasonable to think they will have $145 MILLION allocated to 4 players/5 positions (say Ohtani at $50M filling 2 spots, Trout at $38M, Rendon at $37M, Giolito at $20M). It's not out of the realm of possibility either that Ohtani wants $60M or more, and Giolito wants $25M, which would push it to $160M or more. They're also committed to another $35M between Anderson, Drury, Stassi, and Anderson so they're closing on $200M for only 9 roster spots, meaning even if they want to increase their payroll to $250M (higher than anyone other than the Mets and Yankees--two teams the Angels are not in the same tier as financially), they'll have to pay their other 17 players less than $3M on average, which means they'll have to non-tender some of their arb-eligible guys. But, as has been pointed out, the Angels have one of the worst farm systems in the league, and given the payroll limitations outlined above, do not have the ability to spend out of that. It's pretty clear to me that the Angels have the worst top-to-bottom player pool in all of baseball, in terms of ability to actually build a WS contender.

No kidding on that top point. Go look at the Angel's schedule--after they finish their 3 games against the Motor City Kitties, they don't play another team with a losing record until NYM on August 25 (6 at TOR/ATRL, 7 home SEA/SFG, 6 at HOU/TEX, 6 home TBR/CIN), with only 2 off days. I would not be surprised to see them go 10-15 against that slate, which could put them 10+ back in the division, and 6-7 back in the Wild Card. Even after that, they still have a fairly challenging September with series against PHI, BAL, SEA, TBR, MIN, and TEX (although 2 series against OAK and 1 against DET helps). All of this for a team who is building their recent optimism on a sweep of the Yankees and little else is quite bold.

I mean, he's not wrong. Mahle's career ERA is 4.30, right in line with his career 4.28 FIP. His FIP this year is 4.22, suggesting the 3.16 ERA he posted is more a function of SSS (only 25.2 IP). I'm willing to believe with consistent health he could be better than that, but he's only exceeded 130 IP once in his career, so giving up 2 (more-or-less) MLB ready bats for a player likely to struggle with injuries (pitchers don't usually put shoulder problems behind them as they hit their late 20s) was a predictably bad move at the time, and has only gotten worse as time has gone on.

I see no point in acquiring middle relief relievers--there's so much variability that for every Romo and Fulmer you acquire, you also get a Dyson or Lopez. To build a competent bullpen these days you either need 5 great options (at minimum), or you need to be willing to have a revolving door of options, so you can constantly trade in new guys until you find some who stick.

Not a reason. I don't care about the 18 game postseason losing streak. I care about the 32 year No World Series Appearances streak.

For the Twins, yes. For Walker Jenkins? No.

The whole point of selling is to strengthen yourself for future years. If you truly want Cleveland depleted for future years, you should be hoping the Twins go 0-5 while Cleveland goes 6-0, so Cleveland will decide to be buyers.

There are only 3 reasons a team should be buyers at the deadline; The team is a strong contender to make/win the World Series, and they need to shore up their only weakness or turn an area of average performance into a strength The team is building to the next year, and acts to acquire players with additional control, rather than wait until the offseason The deal on offer is just too good to pass up, even if the team isn't really going anywhere I don't think point 1 applies to this year's team, so the Twins should only be looking for players that are undervalued by their current team, or have additional control (but please, no more trades for oft-injured players or players with a SSS of success). I would not trade for a reliever under almost any circumstances, as relievers are just so variable. As has already been pointed out, I would much prefer to see which of our young guys find success down the stretch. Given all of this, I would not be buying unless it is a game-changing move (Ohtani or Soto) and I just can't see the Twins being willing to give up the prospects necessary for those players (unless the Angels lose their minds, and think Varland, Festa, Raya, Prielipp, and SWR are all going to be #2 starters, and are willing to take those 5 in return for Ohtani).

Not signing Jenkins would be a complete disaster—get gifted the 5th pick in a generational draft with 5 generational players, and then not sign the player. Whatever it takes, he has to be signed.

At what point does Buxton do the right thing by the team, and ask out of the lineup for a couple days, at a minimum? It’s one thing to stay in the lineup hitting like this when elite defense is The tradeoff. But right now, Buxton is nothing but an anchor. Also, if forcing the Mariners to use Sewald for 5 pitches tonight is a moral victory, then surely having to use Duran for 3 straight games against one of the worst teams of all time is an even bigger moral defeat.

Very interesting that Rocco was fine with Ortega pitching with a 2 run lead in the 8th, but needed Duran to pitch with a 3 run lead in the 9th. Have to think that the pen tomorrow consists of Pagan, Sands, Balazovic, and Lopez, with Ortega also potentially available. Leave it to Rocco to blow out his fully rested pen in two days against one of the worst teams of all time.

They do count the same in the regular season, but you won’t get to face KC and Oak in the playoffs. So if you’re interested in anything more than yet another first round exit, paying attention to how the Twins fare against everyone who is not a historically bad team is a good idea.