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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    I think it should be pretty easy to find the 2023 version of Dylan Bundy, and pay him less than $10M. Given that, I don’t think it makes sense to pay $11M to actual Dylan Bundy.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    This is what happens when you have a use all the ammo strategy; the Twins used all three of their best relievers Friday, some of them while up by 3 or 4 runs, and predictably, saw those relievers perform worse when asked to go back-to-back. Rocco has to figure out a way to keep more options available on a day-to-day basis, and Falvine has to figure out a way to get more quality options, or more multi-inning options.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Can a team be honestly characterized as a playoff contender when they use Emilio Pagan and Tyler Duffey in close games? I vote no. I have no idea why the Twins didn’t try and cover the 6th through 8th with a combo of Megill and Jax, then turn it over to Lopez in the 9th.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    I tend to agree with this. I would be ecstatic is two years from now we had Arraez and Martin as .320 AVG/.400 OBP guys batting 9/1 or 1/2 in front of Buxton, Miranda, Kiriloff, Wallner, etc. I have no idea if the Twins pushing him to hit for power is the issue; if it is, knock it off, and let it develop (as it seems to be doing for Arraez), or not. In that scenario, the worst case scenario is that Martin is "just" an elite OBP/speed tablesetter. That's worth 3-4 WAR a year easy.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Increasingly, he doesn't even look like a slap hitter, as his plate value derives from his OBP which is being held up by his walks. For a guy with supposedly the best bat in the 2020 draft, he is conspicuously not particularly good at actually hitting.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    I've lost all confidence in Austin Martin at this point in time. I'd have him below Lewis, Lee, Prielipp, Rodriguez, Steer, Wallner, CES, and Julien for sure; CES and Julien are controversial to some, but they are both younger than Martin (CES by about 8 months, Julien by a few weeks), and performing notably better than Martin at the same level. CES has a very small sample size at AA, but his A+ numbers this year were so far superior to Martin's that I'm inclined that way. I'd be open to hearing arguments on SWR, Varland, Raya, and Hajjar as well. I just can't call a 23 year old who is not performing in AA (in his second year at AA to boot) a top prospect. For Martin to regain his prospect status in my eyes, he needs to get massively better, jump up to the MLB level while maintaining his production, or get younger. I'm not confident in any of those things happening (some more so than others), so I put Martin outside the top 10, and if there is a team at the deadline who still values him as the 5th overall pick in 2020, I trade him in a heartbeat.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Definitely would not do that trade for Montas. Berrios had a much longer track record than Montas at this time last year, with the same amount of remaining control, and did not require that level of package to get from a team that ostensibly was going to try and compete the following year. 18 seasons of team control in exchange for 1.5 seasons seems like not a great deal, especially considering the bullpen is much more of an issue than the rotation.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    1--Get rid of the every team gets a rep requirement. No one is watching to see if the guy from their team pinch hits in the 8th inning, or throws one inning in the 5th. 2--Rosters are selected by a panel of national writers. Each writer is required to submit their slate before the panel convenes to select the roster. Concurrently, the BBWA membership submits their slate (writers will not be allowed to include players on the team they primarily cover); writers on the panel who fall below a certain threshold in terms of agreement with the BBWA roster are removed from the panel to ensure legitimacy 3--All players selected give up 5 game checks to a pool, which is matched by MLB. The winning team splits 75% of the pot, the losing team 25%. All players with less than 4 years of service team get 1 extra year if service time for being on the winning team, and half a year for being on the losing team (to compensate them for the fact that 5 game checks is a bigger deal to them. To prevent teams from keeping players down so they won't be on the all-star team, for every player with less than 4 years of service time who makes the All-Star roster, the team he plays for gets a comp round A pick in the next year's draft). Players who are selected for the game, but opt out must surrender 8 game checks or be on the IL for at least the first 5 games after the All-Star game. 4--Starting pitchers go for 2 innings--after that, each pitcher goes one inning, and is selected by fans for innings 3-7 (a vote is held during each team's half inning in the field, with the vote ending with the third out. The winner of that vote will be the next pitcher, and will come out exactly one inning later (example, the AL is in the field for the bottom of the 2nd; fans will vote on which NL pitcher they want to see next. The pitcher with the most votes when the bottom of the second ends will appear in the top of the 4th, giving that pitcher a full inning to get warmed up). 5--Position players are eligible to re-enter the game starting in the 8th inning for one at bat. This way the best players in the game will be hitting when the game matters. 6--Starting in the 11th inning, if the game is tied at the end of a half inning, the team that just finished batting loses. This means the away team must score in the top of the 11th, or they lose. If the away team does score, the home team must outscore them in the bottom of the 11th, or they lose.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    While Wallner definitely has reduced his k rate since April (he was at about 50% in April), he has settled in at right around 33% in May, June, and MTD July. That's certainly better, but he is definitely still strikeout-prone, and that doesn't seem likely to reduce as he advances levels. That said, I agree that strikeouts are not terrible (within reason). As another poster pointed out, in most cases a strikeout is no worse than a weak grounder or pop out, and in many cases, might actually be preferable to putting a ball in play (no groundball double plays, no lead runners getting thrown out, no tagging runners being gunned down at the plate). I'd prefer he strike out less, but I'll gladly take a 33% strikeout rate if it's accompanied by a .900-1.000 OPS.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    This year is really starting to remind me of 2015--the team comes out and overachieves early on, leading to a surprise division lead. As the season goes on, the team takes on more water, falls back, and ultimately misses the playoffs.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, my bigger point was that quoting a team's record in games a player appears in is not a good indicator for how good that player is. The Yankees are better when Higashioka plays than the Twins are. If you can gauge a player's ability by their team's record in games they play, than clearly Higashioka is better than anyone currently on the Twins.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    No, what he's saying is that Toronto has been winning the games Berrios starts DESPITE Berrios, not BECAUSE of him. It's unfathomable to me that this is getting lost. A team's record in games a pitcher starts is a potentially meaningful metric for that pitcher, but also a potentially meaningless metric for that pitcher. Jose Berrios has been one of the very worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. Out of 59 qualified starters, he is 58th in WAR, 57th in ERA, 59th in xERA, 57th in FIP, 52nd in xFIP, 47th in k/9, 48th in SIERA, 58th in WPA, and 53rd in swinging strike rate. The fact the Jays have a good record in games Berrios starts is because the offense has showed up those games, not because Berrios has been good.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    I honestly have no idea what you are saying here.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    We're looking at who will be the bedrock of the team should the Twins become a perennial WS contender for the next 4-6 years. For that purpose, the players don't have to have come up together, or currently have a lot of time playing together. To me, Buxton and Duran are the only obvious answers. I would accept arguments for Arraez, Kiriloff, Lewis, and Winder. Super long shots would include Ryan, SWR, Steer, Julien, Miranda, Wallner, and Rodriguez.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    But still a helpful one. If you say a team stranded 3 runners in an inning, one can easily deduce the bases were loaded. But it's much worse to score 0 if the bases were loaded with no one out, than with 2 out. In that case, saying 9 LOB tells much more of the story than saying 3 LOB.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    The Yankees are 28-16 (103 win pace) when Kyle Higashioka appears in the game. Should the Twins give up whatever it takes to get him?
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Here's the statline for 2 pitchers in 2022. Pitcher A--7.2 k/9, 2.4 bb/9, 5.72 ERA, 6.23 xERA, 5.17 FIP, 4.40 xFIP, -0.1 WAR, 11.8% barrel rate, 8.5% swinging strike rate Pitcher B--6.8 k/9, 1.8 bb/9, 4.50 ERA, 3.87 xERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 0.7 WAR, 9.6% barrel rate, 10.3% swinging strike rate Other than the k/9 (which is so close it's the equivalent of 1 strikeout every 22.5 innings, or 4-5 starts), pitcher B is clearly superior. Pitcher A is Berrios, making an average of $18M for the next 7 years. Pitcher B is Bundy, making $5M for just this year, unless the Twins want him for $5M next year too. It's pretty clear the Twins are better off with Bundy (as of now) than the Jays are with Berrios.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    It would have been really interesting to see if they brought Duran out for the 10th if the Twins grabbed a lead in their half of the inning. That said, I do agree that it seems likely they decided to only give Duran one inning today.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Perhaps Correa has an injury that does not require an IL stint, but does require total rest? Otherwise not hitting him for Jeffers in the 10th is a fireable offense. Especially because he wouldn't have even had to stay in on defense, as you'd plug Sanchez in for the bottom of the 10th. I'm starting wonder if Falvey knowing pitching is a problem--does that make Falvey think he can identify guys off the scrap heap, polish them up, and make them part of a competent bullpen? If so, I hope the past few weeks are teaching him some humility. I don't necessarily think Rocco is the problem, but I definitely believe he is not the answer. We tried it, it wasn't a match, best of luck in the future, enjoy your future summers on Naragansett Bay.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    I wouldn't hate having Correa in the lineup, other than I think there might be a more impactful way to allocate $35M a year--this of course assumes that Lewis is able to play a competent SS at the MLB level. Your future infield could very well be Arraez at 1B, Steer at 2B, Lewis at SS, and Miranda at 3B; that future could be next year. You could pay that group $15M for the next 3 years combined, or you could get Polanco/Kepler style deals done with all of them, and pay that group $20M a year for the next 5 years. Add Kiriloff, Buxton, and Wallner, and all of the sudden you have a pretty potent lineup, and lots of salary space for pitching.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    More likely they give Archer the extra 5 days—with only 10 games left before the break, but 12 days in which to play them, why not let every pitcher currently in the rotation make 2 starts, rather than shuffle the chairs. On a separate note, an Arraez, Buxton, Lewis, Miranda, Kiriloff top 5 of the order for the next few years looks awfully good right now.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins have an off day on Thursday, and another on Monday. Tomorrow needs to be a game where the best effort is made to win. Buxton in center, Correa at DH. Put the boot down, and do not give this White Sox team any oxygen.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, this is what I don't get. Create an Archer/Winder tandem, and know that you're going to get 9 innings between the two of them every 5 days. That leaves you 7 arms in the pen to handle the other 4 days.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    I think he's toxic in the sense that he clearly works against the Twins winning. Every single other player on the roster must have been thinking "here we go again" in the back of their mind last night. Teams have to trust each other, and have confidence in their teammates performing. Pagan is toxic right now in the sense that he corrodes the team's esprit de corps, vis a vis confidence in winning.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Assuming the Twins had won all 4 of the games Pagan has blown, the Twins would actually be up 10 on both CHI and CLE (Twins would be 47-31, Sox 35-39, CLE 34-38). Even if Pagan "only" blows 2 games, the Twins are up 6 on CLE and 8 on CHI. That is how disastrous Pagan has been in the last 9 days; he may single-handedly cost the Twins the Central.
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