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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Oh, I’m sure Gallo would be allowed to take BP or fielding practice at a major league park any time before the 18th.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins needed help with their roster. When they IL’d Gallo, Correa had also been out multiple days, leaving the Twins with only 2 bench players, one of which was the backup catcher. If everyone else had been healthy, they probably let Gallo heal on the active roster; but since everyone else was not, they needed to do something to get another body up, and Gallo will lose out in that calculus v Correa every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    The hidden issue here remains the Twins' struggles with keeping day-to-day injuries actually day-to-day. Yesterday, for example, with both Gallo and Correa unavailable, the Twins had a 2 man bench (Buxton and Jeffers). This was only day 2 for Correa and day 3 for Gallo, but the direct result of having 2 unusable players is that Buxton more-or-less had to PH in a less than ideal spot, in order to keep a center fielder in the lineup. If Gallo had been put on the IL right away, either Garlick or Lamarre could have been brought up; Garlick would have been a great option to bat against Bummer, leaving Buxton available to PH for Taylor (either with at least one man on base, or leading off the 9th). If Lamarre was up, you could have still PH Buxton for Taylor, and used Lamarre to play CF in the 9th forward.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Good thing Solano batted 5th then.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Seems to me there is an easy solution here—if Miller is considered more or less a lock to stick at short, reps there are less important than for Salas, for whom finding out if he can play at short is imperative. Put Miller at second, Salas at short, and see whether Miller’s bat or Salas’ glove merits a promotion to AA first.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Because winning a game on an HBP, a balk, and then two groundouts is so much better?
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    I agree with what seems to be the consensus here--the Twins should wait for the deadline to add talent via trade, unless they can somehow pull off a steal on the AJ-for-Liriano/Nathan level. The farm system actually has a pretty nice collection of potential top-end talent (Lewis, Lee, Prielipp, Salas, and Rodriguez all have all-star potential, and all of them could be in the bigs by 2024/2025 if things break right). As such, I think the Twins should let the current roster start the year, and re-assess in early June as to what the true needs for 2023 are.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    This is particularly hilarious given your stance in a different thread that the Twins should bring back Miguel Sano, based on the production he’s had IN THE PAST.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Cal Ripken career OPS+ by month, with each month having at least 1700 PAs Mar/Apr--101 May--101 Jun--106 Jul--108 Aug--95 Sep/Oct--90
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    I never implied he wouldn't be healthier. I implied it's silly to think, as you said, that Byron Buxton's injury history has no bearing on his injury future.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    I believe in Byron Buxton. I do not believe in Byron Buxton’s health. Unfortunately, the impact of the former is controlled by the latter.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Good point. Everyone knows that humans get less injury prone as they age.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins should do in essence a 3 part contract with Correa; Part 1: 3 years, $120M, followed by a player opt-out Part 2: 2 years, $70M, followed by a team option with a $15M buy-out (payable across two years, disappears if Correa signs a deal in excess of 4 years, $100M, or $30M in AAV) Part 3: 3 years, $90M Correa gets another shot at FA (if he wants to), while the Twins max their investment at $205M ( in the years Correa should be healthy/producing)
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Completely disagree. It’s time for a rebuild, and someone other than Falvine should be the architect. They’ve had 7 off-seasons, 4 of which presented clear need for upgrades combined with clear payroll space, and the sum total of their moves is 4 years of Josh Donaldson (only 2 of which happened), and 1 year of Correa that was handed to them on a platter. They’re never going to do what it takes to turn this team into a true contender, so I’d rather be done with them now.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I mean, not to quibble or anything, but if you have positive WAR, you are by definition not below replacement level.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Lewis was questionable to stick at short before the first ACL injury, let alone the second. Lee was also iffy as a future short before the draft. We can hope that at least one if not both ultimately can be a competent defensive SS at the MLB level, but if I had to put a bet on it, I'd wager neither will be as good as Polanco was at short, which is to say, not particularly good.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Directionally accurate, but mathematically erroneous. Also, mop-up relievers and third catchers will continue to be, almost exclusively, rookie-scale guys. The minimum salary for an MLB player will not exceed $12M for decades, assuming major league baseball is still a thing that far into the future.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Must be just you. I've been reliably informed by multiple people on this site that all owners are greedy, parsimonious misers cruelly depressing wages in order to screw the decent, hard working players.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm not so sure that Correa agrees to the proposed creative contract, unless I'm understanding it wrong. Is the gist that even if the Twins pick up the extra 5 years for $125M, Correa can still opt out after the very next season? If so, in what world do the Twins opt for a 5yr $125M contract which runs from 2027-2031, but a non-injured Correa does not immediately opt out after the 2026 season? Keep in mind that 5 years from $25M a year will be borderline second starter money, not future HOF at the tail of their prime money. If the Twins exercising that 5 year option negates any opt out for Correa, Correa is essentially maxing out at 9/$300, with a real risk of "only" realizing 4/$175M. As others have pointed out, Correa is going to want to maximize his earnings, so he's going to want a very clear path to $300M minimum, and this contract creates a real risk to that happening if he gets injured or declines in the next 3 years.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    I think Falvinelli are in complete and total lock step, which is why I put the pen more on Falvine than Baldelli. All 3 of them think they have cracked a code by limiting starters to 4-6 innings depending on when the order turns over for the second time. The thing is, they’re right. The stats are undeniable. However; there was never a plan to address bulking up the bullpen to pitch 486-810 innings, which is why the Twins have generally rolled out 8 guys who more or less only pitch one inning, and need a day off after pitching in order to stay highly effective. Combine that with Baldelli’s penchant to use all his best bullpen options anytime the game’s margin is 3 or less, and you have a recipe to blow out your bullpen constantly. If the FO wants to continue their “5-and-fly” strategy, they MUST dedicate a significant amount of resources to the pen this offseason. Theilbar and Jax need to be your 5th and 6th option at best, and you need at least 2 guys that can handle 3-4 innings every third day. If they can’t get that done, and they still refuse to get more innings from starters, then Falvine should be told they’ll need to start paying for tickets to Twins games (because they were fired).
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    I would phrase it as the car didn’t break down, but nor did it turn on. At no point this year have the Twins looked like a team that was going to make any other team nervous in a playoff series.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    The utter failure of the FO, knowing full well they would need 3-5 innings from the pen every day, to devote anything close to requisite resources to the bullpen.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    As unlikely as making the playoffs are, I have to wonder why we would even want to. We’d either get the Rays and their all-around competence, the imposing lineup of the Blue Jays, or the Mariners who will trot out Castillo, Ray, and Gilbert. Any ways you cut out, no way this team takes 2 of 3 against any of those teams. Now is the time to see who can be helpful for next year. Archer should be shut down for the year, Bundy should be released, Pagan DFA’d, etc. Bring up SWR and Wallet at minimum, and then anyone else with a pulse across the river.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    See, that's the thing. I never thought they had a fighting chance in last night's game once it reached the bottom of the 5th, for all the reasons I outlined above. Just to get the win, the Twins would need to put up 3 runs in 4 innings (which is the most they had scored in any game for the past week; it's not like the offense is firing on all cylinders right now), while simultaneously completely shutting down a Houston offense that had scored 14 runs in the previous 20 innings for 5 innings. Two of those innings were probably going to have to come from Megill and Pagan as well. In reality, Rocco should have assumed the Twins needed at least 4, and maybe 5 runs to actually win last night's game, and understood that his lineup is just not producing at that level, or anywhere near it, right now. As a consequence, he should have pitched Megill in the 5th, Pagan in the 6th (since they were going to have to pitch anyways), and reassessed at that point. So to answer your question, had Rocco let Megill and Pagan pitch 2 innings last night, and watched the 5-3 game turn into a 9-3 one, I would have been glad that we would be going into a weekend series against a much softer opponent with all our best bullpen options at full strength. Anyone who prefers chasing an 18% chance to win instead of keeping the powder dry for a 56% chance to win is a prime example of why Las Vegas makes so much money.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    The alternative was not to chase a win that had a very low probability of happening. The Twins were already down 2 runs. They had fewer at bats left than their opponent. Those Twins at-bats were going to represent a higher percentage of lesser hitters than the Astros' at bats. And perhaps most importantly, even if Duran, Jax, and Lopez all pitched a scoreless inning, the Twins would still need to get at least 6 outs from other relievers anyways (perhaps 9 or 12). Had it been 5-3 going into the bottom of the 7th, I would have understood the move a bit more; I still wouldn't have done it, but at least it would have had the benefit of knowing that you didn't need to throw Megill/Pagan (since in this scenario they would have already pitched). I would also understand the decision, and support it a bit more if the opponent was CWS or CLE, because division games count for two. Same if they had today off. The consequences tonight might very not be modest. And they might not end tonight. That is the point I'm making; Rocco took a game the Twins had a 17.8% chance of winning going into the bottom of the 5th, and threw his 3 best arms at it. The consequence is that 1 loss might turn into 2 or 3--that is not modest, and it should have been entirely predictable to any person who understands math and probability. I personally would include Rocco in the group of people who understand math and probability. The fact that he eschewed those two last night can only be explained in my opinion by desperation. Rocco felt the Twins had to have a win, and in chasing that, he not only lost, but put himself in a worse spot to get future wins.
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