Cap'n Piranha

The alternative was not to chase a win that had a very low probability of happening. The Twins were already down 2 runs. They had fewer at bats left than their opponent. Those Twins at-bats were going to represent a higher percentage of lesser hitters than the Astros' at bats. And perhaps most importantly, even if Duran, Jax, and Lopez all pitched a scoreless inning, the Twins would still need to get at least 6 outs from other relievers anyways (perhaps 9 or 12). Had it been 5-3 going into the bottom of the 7th, I would have understood the move a bit more; I still wouldn't have done it, but at least it would have had the benefit of knowing that you didn't need to throw Megill/Pagan (since in this scenario they would have already pitched). I would also understand the decision, and support it a bit more if the opponent was CWS or CLE, because division games count for two. Same if they had today off. The consequences tonight might very not be modest. And they might not end tonight. That is the point I'm making; Rocco took a game the Twins had a 17.8% chance of winning going into the bottom of the 5th, and threw his 3 best arms at it. The consequence is that 1 loss might turn into 2 or 3--that is not modest, and it should have been entirely predictable to any person who understands math and probability. I personally would include Rocco in the group of people who understand math and probability. The fact that he eschewed those two last night can only be explained in my opinion by desperation. Rocco felt the Twins had to have a win, and in chasing that, he not only lost, but put himself in a worse spot to get future wins.

Ah, I see the distinction you're making here. Yes, I agree. You can't expect someone who's been coached to zig their whole career to suddenly be a proficient zagger. Further agree that a focus on fundamentals at the MLB level alone is insufficient, and an organization-wide overhaul is necessary.

I disagree on the fundamentals part--fundamentals need to be constantly worked on to remain at the highest level. It's why every single professional sports team, even those at the highest levels, employ coaches whose job is to coach fundamentals. Certainly players should arrive in the majors with a solid grasp of the fundamentals, but those need to be continually monitored, and corrected when they start to slide.

Would Lopez and Duran have appeared last night if the Twins were losing 9-1 in the fifth inning? If Rocco was deadset on using them, why not use one as an opener then instead?

They didn't know when they removed Duran or Jax that the offense would fail to close the gap for 3 innings. It should have been pretty foreseeable that the offense not closing the gap was a real possibility, given that the Twins were slated to send hitters 4-6 to the plate in the 6th. Seeing as how it was also guaranteed that the Astros 1-5 hitters would appear at least once more, and in all probability twice more after the 5th inning, you could easily save Duran/Jax/Lopez for the Astros' best hitters. The decision was non-sensical when it was made, it (predictably) did not work, and it increased the chances that the Twins losing streak will grow to 7/8 games, since the 3 best bullpen arms will be either unavailable or at an increased likelihood of performing poorly until at least Sunday.

Sure, they are available, in that they are both physically able to pitch. But they will likely be diminished versions of themselves, given that they will be pitching on no rest. Here are the numbers for Duran and Jax when they pitch on rest against no rest (warning, extremely SSS on the no rest side, as it's 4 appearances for 3.2 IP for Duran and 6/4.1 for Jax) Duran with rest--51 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 1.76 ERA, 11.6 k/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 bb/9 Duran on no rest--3.2 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 4.90 ERA, 9.8 k/9, 4.9 HR/9, 0 bb/9 Jax with rest--37.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 11.8 k/9, 1.2 hr/9, 2.9 bb/9 Jax on no rest--4.1 IP, 1.90 WHIP, 10.71 ERA, 6.4 k/9, 0 hr/9, 4.3 bb/9 Hard to draw conclusions given the paucity of data, but some clear deltas in performance that echo those seen in other relief pitchers I've looked at (such as 2018-2020 Taylor Rogers). Lopez has more data, and for him the differences are pronounced; With rest--30 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, 10.8 k/9, 0.6 hr/9, 1.8 bb/9 On no rest--15.1 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 3.53 ERA, 7.1 k/9, 0.6 hr/9, 5.9 bb/9 I don't think it's unreasonable to anticipate an increased likelihood of poor performance from those 3 should they be used tonight, meaning if the three of them are tasked to hold a one-run lead in innings 7-9, they're more likely to blow that lead, and potentially the game. If any of the three are used tonight, I think we can all agree they are unavailable tomorrow. So it's a distinct possibility that by chasing an unlikely win, Rocco will leave himself with a much worse bullpen for the first game or two of the SF series. Poor managing that should have been very easy to identify as poor managing; unless you are feeling desperate to get a win, and that desperation leads you into making low-probability-of-success choices.

Like CHPettit, I am inclined to agree here as well (much as it pains me to say it). Were Rocco to be fired, it's likely they would hire some other individual who speaks SABRmetrics, and will rely on them as the main source of data for decision making. As such, it's very likely any Rocco replacement will be Rocco 2.0. The only thing that gives me some pause is the hope that two supposedly smart guys in Falvey and Levine will realize that things aren't working right now, and will decide to change their modus operandi rather than continuing to pound their collective heads against the wall. If they do, they'll still hire an analytics guy, but maybe an analytics guy that's going to be able to actually inspire and teach his players fundamentals at the same time, a couple things that I feel are just lacking on the current team.

Competitive is a term replete with shades of gray. The Twins are competitive in a terrible division that features 2 of the 3 worst teams in the AL (2 of the worst 6 in all of MLB). The team leading the division would be in third or worse in every division save the NL Central, where they would be exactly 2 games out of third. I don't think it's unreasonable a fans to want more than a puncher's chance at being a punching bag in the playoffs. This is year 6 of the Falvine regime, and the arrow is pointing flat, if not down. I agree with you that they did not inherit much, but why have they been so unable to even come close to replicating the high-water mark of the 2019/2020 seasons? If you want to point to injuries, then I'd ask why this organization struggles so much with injuries given their supposed focus on overall health and injury prevention? Are they just the most snake-bitten franchise ever? I'm not advocating for a house cleaning by any stretch, but unless something changes in the next 6 weeks, 2023 needs to be a make-or-break season for the entire baseball ops department, up to and including Falvey.

Down two, Twins have 12 outs left and the 4th batter next up. Houston has 15 outs left, and the third batter next up. This suggests the Twins would be lucky to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice, while Houston was almost assured to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice. Given that, it was patently insane to use Duran, Jax, and Lopez to chase a lead when you would still need at least 6 outs from, let’s say unsteady, options. Now, at least 2 of those 3 are unavailable Friday night in a close game; not exactly unlikely given the Twins recent offensive struggles. Rocco seems like the guy who calls a raise with a pair of sixes because he’s pot committed. In the real world, this move betrays what most be near desperation in the clubhouse. To use assets so foolishly, in a scenario so unlikely to break in one’s favor, indicates panic-induced poor decision making.

It's only relevant in determining if the Twins overpaid on the already inflated cost. As it turns out, unless Correa makes it to 4.4ish WAR, the Twins will have overpaid twice. There are a handful of teams that can afford to do that: the Twins cannot. Of course no roster is filled out with guys whose rank by salary and rank by WAR are identical. But that's not the point that I, or anyone else saying similar things, is making. The point we are making is that when you are the Twins, and you start handing out late-stage arbitration or FA deals/extensions, the production from rookie-scale or early-stage arbitration players is going to have to increase. Correa, Sanchez, and Kepler are making $51.1M this year; they've accounted for 5.1 WAR (on pace for about 7), leaving the rest of the roster to make $92M while needing to produce 35 WAR. That puts a lot of pressure on 23 players to either produce like all-stars, or be (relatively) low paid. Do you see the problem here?

It always makes me laugh when people talk about how a player produces enough WAR for their salary because they're at a 1 WAR per $8M ratio. That is only accurate when obtaining talent on the FA market, which is the absolute worst way to acquire talent. If the Twins wanted to win 90 games, and needed to spend $8M/WAR to do so, their payroll would have to be $336M. Putting it another way, if Correa is "worth" his contract, and puts up 4 WAR a year, and the Twins have a $140M payroll, that means the Twins need to get 38 WAR out of $105M, or $2.76M/WAR. That's going to be very difficult to do.

I would assume it's for the same reason you already mentioned; roster shenanigans. There has to be a max roster size, else what would keep the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets having way more prospects than the rest of the league?

Minor point, to be sure, but Sands last pitched on Tuesday the 16th, so 4 days, not a week.

Edgar Varela was reassigned to be an MiLB instructor this year; I find it unlikely he is the reason for the MLB club's struggles. Rowson has for the past 3 years been with a Miami organization that finished with a wRC+ of 94 (19th) in 2020, 83 (28th) in 2021, and 89 (25th) so far in 2022. While that is an improvement for Miami (79 and 29th in 2019), it's not so massive that Rowson returning fixes everything.

Perhaps Rocco made Pagan finish the game today as a message to Falvine? That message being, “please DFA this guy, and give me anyone else”

Duran warming for the 7th? Color me confused.

Dick says Mahle left with right shoulder fatigue ?

They can. Certainly Duran and Lopez are both available. But I'd rather they didn't have to.

What a display of pitch to contact by Jax. I always thought the doctrine had merit, TR was just really bad at executing it.

Nope, he actually was an outfielder exclusively in 2010-2011 (no data available for the Appy League on MiLB.com). He played some outfield in both 2012 and 2014, but only 2B in 2013. In 2015 he played exclusively in the outfield, and was then promoted to MLB. For his MiLB career, Eddie actually has twice as many innings at 2B as at all other positions combined.

Pagan throws 3-5 good pitches, and then throws a middle middle fastball with no movement that gets hammered.

Only if the Twins decide to intentionally walk hitters. Theoretically, a pitcher could pitch an inning without throwing a single pitch by intentionally walking 3 batters, and then picking them all off.

Here's where I would really love to see the Twins tack on, so we can feel comfortable letting Sands handle innings 7-9.

Eddie started as an OF, and then was shifted to second due to a black hole of MI prospects in the Twins system. That experiment lasted for 2 years (2012 and 2013, and was then abandoned partway through 2014).

I would think Varland would be ahead of SWR in the promo list, to say nothing of Devin Smeltzer.