Cap'n Piranha

I've lost all confidence in Austin Martin at this point in time. I'd have him below Lewis, Lee, Prielipp, Rodriguez, Steer, Wallner, CES, and Julien for sure; CES and Julien are controversial to some, but they are both younger than Martin (CES by about 8 months, Julien by a few weeks), and performing notably better than Martin at the same level. CES has a very small sample size at AA, but his A+ numbers this year were so far superior to Martin's that I'm inclined that way. I'd be open to hearing arguments on SWR, Varland, Raya, and Hajjar as well. I just can't call a 23 year old who is not performing in AA (in his second year at AA to boot) a top prospect. For Martin to regain his prospect status in my eyes, he needs to get massively better, jump up to the MLB level while maintaining his production, or get younger. I'm not confident in any of those things happening (some more so than others), so I put Martin outside the top 10, and if there is a team at the deadline who still values him as the 5th overall pick in 2020, I trade him in a heartbeat.

Definitely would not do that trade for Montas. Berrios had a much longer track record than Montas at this time last year, with the same amount of remaining control, and did not require that level of package to get from a team that ostensibly was going to try and compete the following year. 18 seasons of team control in exchange for 1.5 seasons seems like not a great deal, especially considering the bullpen is much more of an issue than the rotation.

1--Get rid of the every team gets a rep requirement. No one is watching to see if the guy from their team pinch hits in the 8th inning, or throws one inning in the 5th. 2--Rosters are selected by a panel of national writers. Each writer is required to submit their slate before the panel convenes to select the roster. Concurrently, the BBWA membership submits their slate (writers will not be allowed to include players on the team they primarily cover); writers on the panel who fall below a certain threshold in terms of agreement with the BBWA roster are removed from the panel to ensure legitimacy 3--All players selected give up 5 game checks to a pool, which is matched by MLB. The winning team splits 75% of the pot, the losing team 25%. All players with less than 4 years of service team get 1 extra year if service time for being on the winning team, and half a year for being on the losing team (to compensate them for the fact that 5 game checks is a bigger deal to them. To prevent teams from keeping players down so they won't be on the all-star team, for every player with less than 4 years of service time who makes the All-Star roster, the team he plays for gets a comp round A pick in the next year's draft). Players who are selected for the game, but opt out must surrender 8 game checks or be on the IL for at least the first 5 games after the All-Star game. 4--Starting pitchers go for 2 innings--after that, each pitcher goes one inning, and is selected by fans for innings 3-7 (a vote is held during each team's half inning in the field, with the vote ending with the third out. The winner of that vote will be the next pitcher, and will come out exactly one inning later (example, the AL is in the field for the bottom of the 2nd; fans will vote on which NL pitcher they want to see next. The pitcher with the most votes when the bottom of the second ends will appear in the top of the 4th, giving that pitcher a full inning to get warmed up). 5--Position players are eligible to re-enter the game starting in the 8th inning for one at bat. This way the best players in the game will be hitting when the game matters. 6--Starting in the 11th inning, if the game is tied at the end of a half inning, the team that just finished batting loses. This means the away team must score in the top of the 11th, or they lose. If the away team does score, the home team must outscore them in the bottom of the 11th, or they lose.

While Wallner definitely has reduced his k rate since April (he was at about 50% in April), he has settled in at right around 33% in May, June, and MTD July. That's certainly better, but he is definitely still strikeout-prone, and that doesn't seem likely to reduce as he advances levels. That said, I agree that strikeouts are not terrible (within reason). As another poster pointed out, in most cases a strikeout is no worse than a weak grounder or pop out, and in many cases, might actually be preferable to putting a ball in play (no groundball double plays, no lead runners getting thrown out, no tagging runners being gunned down at the plate). I'd prefer he strike out less, but I'll gladly take a 33% strikeout rate if it's accompanied by a .900-1.000 OPS.

This year is really starting to remind me of 2015--the team comes out and overachieves early on, leading to a surprise division lead. As the season goes on, the team takes on more water, falls back, and ultimately misses the playoffs.

k/9 is simply a way to allow accurate comparison of past performance between multiple pitchers. Nothing more, nothing less. It is not a projection of how many strikeouts a pitcher would get in a hypothetical complete game, it simply allows you to compare a pitcher who's pitched 180 innings to one who's pitched 120. In that regard, as the other poster pointed out, it is exactly the same as k/inning, so you professing admiration for one, and derision for the other, is fascinating.

I don't think this is unique to Twins fans though--this is what happens when you have a bunch of people who are very invested in a team. They're going to see a lot of things, and they're going to talk about what they see. If those people tend to be pessimists in general, it's likely they'll focus on the negative.

Yeah, my bigger point was that quoting a team's record in games a player appears in is not a good indicator for how good that player is. The Yankees are better when Higashioka plays than the Twins are. If you can gauge a player's ability by their team's record in games they play, than clearly Higashioka is better than anyone currently on the Twins.

No, what he's saying is that Toronto has been winning the games Berrios starts DESPITE Berrios, not BECAUSE of him. It's unfathomable to me that this is getting lost. A team's record in games a pitcher starts is a potentially meaningful metric for that pitcher, but also a potentially meaningless metric for that pitcher. Jose Berrios has been one of the very worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. Out of 59 qualified starters, he is 58th in WAR, 57th in ERA, 59th in xERA, 57th in FIP, 52nd in xFIP, 47th in k/9, 48th in SIERA, 58th in WPA, and 53rd in swinging strike rate. The fact the Jays have a good record in games Berrios starts is because the offense has showed up those games, not because Berrios has been good.

I honestly have no idea what you are saying here.

We're looking at who will be the bedrock of the team should the Twins become a perennial WS contender for the next 4-6 years. For that purpose, the players don't have to have come up together, or currently have a lot of time playing together. To me, Buxton and Duran are the only obvious answers. I would accept arguments for Arraez, Kiriloff, Lewis, and Winder. Super long shots would include Ryan, SWR, Steer, Julien, Miranda, Wallner, and Rodriguez.

But still a helpful one. If you say a team stranded 3 runners in an inning, one can easily deduce the bases were loaded. But it's much worse to score 0 if the bases were loaded with no one out, than with 2 out. In that case, saying 9 LOB tells much more of the story than saying 3 LOB.

The Yankees are 28-16 (103 win pace) when Kyle Higashioka appears in the game. Should the Twins give up whatever it takes to get him?

Here's the statline for 2 pitchers in 2022. Pitcher A--7.2 k/9, 2.4 bb/9, 5.72 ERA, 6.23 xERA, 5.17 FIP, 4.40 xFIP, -0.1 WAR, 11.8% barrel rate, 8.5% swinging strike rate Pitcher B--6.8 k/9, 1.8 bb/9, 4.50 ERA, 3.87 xERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 0.7 WAR, 9.6% barrel rate, 10.3% swinging strike rate Other than the k/9 (which is so close it's the equivalent of 1 strikeout every 22.5 innings, or 4-5 starts), pitcher B is clearly superior. Pitcher A is Berrios, making an average of $18M for the next 7 years. Pitcher B is Bundy, making $5M for just this year, unless the Twins want him for $5M next year too. It's pretty clear the Twins are better off with Bundy (as of now) than the Jays are with Berrios.

It would have been really interesting to see if they brought Duran out for the 10th if the Twins grabbed a lead in their half of the inning. That said, I do agree that it seems likely they decided to only give Duran one inning today.

Perhaps Correa has an injury that does not require an IL stint, but does require total rest? Otherwise not hitting him for Jeffers in the 10th is a fireable offense. Especially because he wouldn't have even had to stay in on defense, as you'd plug Sanchez in for the bottom of the 10th. I'm starting wonder if Falvey knowing pitching is a problem--does that make Falvey think he can identify guys off the scrap heap, polish them up, and make them part of a competent bullpen? If so, I hope the past few weeks are teaching him some humility. I don't necessarily think Rocco is the problem, but I definitely believe he is not the answer. We tried it, it wasn't a match, best of luck in the future, enjoy your future summers on Naragansett Bay.

Dry humping Duran instead of fully exhausting Duran is the solution to Duran being able to go 2 innings today. I don't know why this is so hard for people to understand--when the pen has only 1 good option, how that option is managed is far and away the most important thing the manager does. I wouldn't care at all how Rocco handles Duran if we also had Rogers, 2019 Duffey, 2020 Wisler, 2019 May, and 2020 Romo. When Griffin Jax is your 6th or 7th best option, management of your best bullpen option is pretty unimportant. When Grifin Jax is your 2nd best option, management of your best bullpen option is all-important. Rocco continually fails at that task.

So you're saying that after Kiriloff hit his 2 RBI single, giving the Twins their 4 run lead, they couldn't have sat Duran down? I'm sure he continued to warm while the White Sox changed their pitcher, and Garlick struck out. I'm sure he threw pitches from the mound in between innings. He then threw 20 live pitches. I'm saying all of that was completely unnecessary, and had it not happened, maybe he can go 2 innings today. If you're saying that because they had already decided to use him, they were going to use him no matter what happened in the top of the 10th, then we have a much larger issue with Rocco's (in)ability to make decisions in the moment.

Well therein lies the problem--why did they pitch him with a 4 run lead on Monday? If the comeback is that there was no one else Rocco trusted to give up 3 or fewer runs (2 earned), then I would say if we have pitchers on the staff that can't be trusted to keep their ERAs below 18, those pitchers should be DFAd immediately. Rocco chose a bad spot for Duran on Monday, and it bit him today. You can't do that when your pen is this bad.

Duran couldn't go 2 innings in a 2 run game today, but he could pitch an inning in a 4 run game Monday? I get you can't overwork him, but that makes it all the more important to use him when his impact is greatest. Were it me, I would have thrown him 2 today, and then simply accepted that I would only have him available for one game in the Rangers series

To be totally fair, who are you going to put at catcher? I agree Sanchez is better at this point, but I don't exactly want him playing 150 games. Catcher is shaping up to be the one glaring weakness in next year's lineup (potentially shortstop as well), and something is going to have to be done.

Sure. Gotta save him for tomorrow's day off. In all seriousness, division games count for two. Gotta win games against the teams chasing you. I'd rather sweep the Sox and go 1-2 against Texas, then go 2-1 against both the Sox and Texas.

So many levers to pull and buttons to push in this one, and Rocco just decided to sit on his hands for all for them.

This makes no sense, of course they could. They have the $35M man on the bench, who was brought in to help the Twins win big games. You still have your second catcher on the bench. That was one of the biggest no-brainer pinch hit spots of all time, so the fact that Rocco didn't...

That's on you bro.