Cap'n Piranha

I'm not super read up on the Saint's rotation, but are they really hurting so badly for starters that Shoemaker had to get the call?

Nelson Cruz's contract is up after this year, therefore holding onto him does nothing to build the team for next year. The Twins are allowed to sign him to a new contract this offseason as well. Making a trade for two pitchers having success in AAA actually is building for next year. You know what's not building for next year? Hanging on to a 41 year old on an expiring contract so he can hit 15 more home runs for a team that's going to lose 90 games.

Aaron Gleeman has said it multiple times on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. From 2019-2021, Darvish is 13th in WAR, so it's not really "arguable" he's as good as anyone not named de Grom. He was going to turn 32 in the first year of his contract, and had only made 30 starts in a season twice (one season he made 29). There was massive injury and aging risk, and acting like the Twins should have just ignored that isn't a position based in reality.

That's exactly why I said the teams would be stupid to ignore that leverage--it will lead to them making bad deals. Take Berrios--he has clearly decided he wants to test the FA market; nor is that a decision he has come to recently. Thus, if the Twins wanted to sign Berrios 1-2 years ago, they would have had to outbid not the actual market, but Berrios' conception of the market. Specifically after Wheeler signed his deal; Berrios I'm sure looked at it as a guy who was older, more injury-prone, and not necessarily better (Berrios 2017-2019 WAR--10.1. Wheeler 2017-2019 WAR--9.1). Therefore, is there any reason to think Berrios would be satisfied with the same deal a lesser player got 3 years before? If you wanted to sign Berrios at any point after that Wheeler deal, I'm assuming a minimum contract is 5/$140M, and if he's expecting that to replace at least 2 if not all 3 arb years, it would be a horrible deal for the Twins (getting only 2-3 more years of control, while spending vastly more at the beginning of the contract--maybe $18M-$20M under arb salaries, against $75M-$80M under the extension). If you want more extra control, you'd need to go probably 7/$175, which is a huge bet to place on a guy who could quite easily blow out his arm, and never be the same.

This is a little bit different when the vast majority of prospects lost an entire year of development time, and then had a delay to the start of this season as well. I would guess that if COVID didn't happen one of Duran or Balazovic (perhaps both) might already be in the majors.

Because in order to sign players that didn't play for you last year, you have to (generally speaking), pay them more than 29 other teams are willing to. For players you have control over, you simply have to abide by the pay structures set up. It would be stupid for the team to give up the leverage of arbitration years, just like it would be stupid for the player to give up the leverage of free agency years. I'm glad you do know better, and don't legitimately think the Twins are trying to hold the salary line for the organizations they're competing against.

Yeah, the pitching pipeline is a little dry over the past 3-4 years. Maybe that's why a pitching-focused front office was brought in after 2016.

This is not even close to true. It has been reliably reported that Wheeler's agent wouldn't even listen to offers from the Twins--the Twins were expressly told not to waste their time. As for Yu Darvish, he has posted 8.2 WAR (all in the NL as well) since 2018, which ranks him 32nd in all of baseball. Do you think the Twins can realistically compete while paying 2nd/3rd starters $20M+ a year?

Buxton debuted in his age 21 season, and had 500 PA's in the majors in his age 23 season (i.e. he was a starter). Sano debuted in his age 22 season, and had 495 PA's in the majors in his age 23 season Arraez debuted in his age 22 season, and has been a starter ever since Other examples Polanco debuted in his age 20 season, and had 500 PA's in the majors in his age 23 season Kepler debuted in his age 22 season, and had 447 PA's in the majors in his age 23 season Kiriloff debuted this year, in his age 23 season, and would have gotten 500 PA's if not for injury (might have debuted last year, if not for COVID Rosario debuted in his age 23 season, and got 474 PA's in the majors that year Larnach debuted this year, in his age 24 season, and will probably get 500 PA's (also might have debuted last year if not for COVID) Berrios debuted in his age 22 season, and was a full time starter in his age 23 season (25 starts in the majors) Jeffers debuted in his age 23 season, and has been a full time starter this year in his age 24 season The old stereotype that the Twins don't promote young players is just that--old. It's not fact-based at all any more.

FIP does not take into account strand rate--it only looks at HR's, BB's, K's, and IP. As such, his LOB% is a concern--he's had extreme luck at not letting the base runners he puts on base come around to score; if that normalizes (which it probably will), he loses a lot of effectiveness. Fangraphs 100% shows a 58.2% fastball rate (his page is linked below)--I'm not sure where you're getting 38.7%. The reason I mention his FB velocity is because most starters at best maintain velocity, but more often lose velocity as they age. At almost 26, it is likely this is the hardest Megill will ever throw. That is concerning for a guy who is overly-reliant on his fastball, and only has good-not-great velocity. In other words, he has no margin for error; if he starts throwing 93 in a couple of years, he'll need to either make great progress on other pitches, or shift to the bullpen. The larger point that we should all consider--if Megill's numbers are comparable to Berrios', and there isn't significant downside risk, then why would the Mets give up 5.5 years of cheap team control for 1.5 years of expensive team control, let alone additional prospect capital?

And in ST this year, Dobnak pitched 15.2 innings, only allowed 6 hits, 0 walks, struck out 19 guys, and had a 0.57 ERA. Given his career production and pedigree, I agree with you that Jordy Blaze should be pushed up a level soon, but I wouldn't say he's not being challenged any more. Any pitcher can go on a three game hot streak.

Based on track record, I think it's likely this FO will attempt to start the year with 3-4 MLB veterans in the rotation, so that Duran/Balazovic/Winder are the injury replacements. Alternatively, if we have a Shoemaker or Happ situation again, and any of those three are doing well in AAA, they could be swapped out. If the FO wants to contend in 2022, they won't want zero depth behind their untested rookies starting the year in the rotation. If the FO wants to build for 2023/2024, there's no reason to rush that young trio, and ideally, they woudl strike gold on a one-year make-good veteran, and flip him for something at the deadline in 2022, and then promote the young guy(s). As such, I think the odds of any of the three making the opening day roster is much more like the 20-30% the previous poster surmised.

89.1% LOB rate (league average is 72%) doesn't stick out? That's better than all but one pitcher in the league this year. How about his 12.9% line drive rate (league average is 20.9%), despite having similar soft/medium/hard contact numbers to league average? Maybe his 58.2% FB rate (league average is 50.9%) is of concern, since he's sitting under 95 MPH? None of that means he's going to fall off a cliff of course, but I would be wary of buying on a SSS of good performance, especially based on that LOB Rate.

The large issues the Twins have had this year begin and end with the disastrous injuries (Buxton, Garver, Pineda, and to a degree, Dobnak), and the complete failure of 2020's pitching free agents (Happ, Shoemaker, Colome). No reasonable baseball person would have forecast any of those 3 being sub-replacement level this year (perhaps at replacement level), and certainly not all 3. Trading for Maeda was a good decision at the time (getting an undervalued starter with 4 years of control on a team-friendly deal for a reliever is a no-brainer), and has been a steal since (Graterol looked good last year, if you ignore the 5 k/9, but this year has spent more time in AAA than MLB, and pitched to a 6.48 ERA). Donaldson has also not been the problem. Since signing with the Twins, amongst 3B with 300+ PA's, he's 5th in OPS, 5th in wRC+, 5th in wOBA, 4th in HR/PA, 7th in Hard Hit Rate, and 2nd in bb rate. He's compiled 2.6 WAR in 103 games, which is a 4 WAR player across a full season. It's peculiar to me that your go-to examples of bad FO decisions are, other than the Nelson Cruz signing, probably the two best decisions the FO have made to date, and are two moves that they would undoubtedly make again if given the chance, I also have no idea why you think Lewis is somehow 3-4 years away--if not for the injury, he would probably be on this team now. I see no reason that he won't debut next year, and probably be a starter by 2023 at the latest. Sure, trades look bad when the prospect in return fizzles. But what if they don't? Do you think maybe the White Sox regret trading Fernando Tatis Jr for James Shields? Do you think maybe the Padres would like to have Trea Turner back, instead of Wil Myers?

There was no reason the Twins could not have re-signed him in 2019, had they wanted to. You leave out here the possibility that the FO may have been aware that Escobar wasn't interested in signing with the Twins in FA. If so, trading him in a season where you weren't going to make the playoffs, and it also being his last season of control, is a complete no-brainer of a move.

Certainly not repeating what you said, as what you said was Kepler gets too much of his value from homeruns to be considered a good player. I said that if Kepler stops hitting homers (which seems likely, given the stats I referenced), he goes from being All-Star caliber to simply solid regular, which still has value for the current iteration of the Twins. Perhaps if you'd used more words, you'd have arrived at the same, nuanced, conclusion.

Fully explaining the thought: 36 homeruns is quite valuable, just not as valuable as it used to be. Put another way--$1M is still a large amount of money, just not quite as large as it was in 1980.

Almost any batter's wRC+ without homers is going to be horrific, as homers carry the most weight in wOBA (which is what wRC+ is based on). If you're saying that Kepler's 2019 wRC+ was anomalous due to a skewed HR ratio, then I would respond that we should instead be looking at his whether his HR rate would be expected to continue. As it turns out, the 18% HR/FB rate Kepler has in 2019 has not recurred, probably due to Kepler's failure to maintain the 40%+ hard hit rate he managed in 2019. As such, I think we can all stop waiting for 5 WAR Kepler to come back, but appreciate that he's still 2-3 WAR Kepler, which is perfectly acceptable for a guy who slots in the bottom half of your order, and is only owed $15Mish over the next 2 years.

I was saying nothing of the kind. I was saying anyone hitting 36 homers in today's game will have a lower OPS+ than someone hitting 36 homers 20+ years ago did. I do think that Kepler had has one big year in 2019, when all the stars aligned for any number of players, and I would be surprised to see him hit 36 again, but that in no way correlates to my point that Kepler's OPS+ was not too low for a guy who hit 36 homers.

As the league has shifted more towards hitting homeruns, the value of an individual homerun has decreased. As such, hitting 35 homers no longer has the same impact as it once did, and since OPS+ compares a player to the rest of the league, it's not surprising that players hitting a lot of homeruns would not have huge OPS+ numbers, unlike players in the past who hit the same number of homers. Think of it this way--if in 1980 you had 5 TV's in your house, that would be a ton of TV's, and would give you a high "TV+". in 2021, you would still have a "TV+" above 100, but it would not be as dramatic, as most people now have at least 2 or 3 TV's in their house.

For his career, on AB's that get to a 3-2 count, Sano has 178 bb, 205 k's, and has put the ball in play 150 times, with 64 of those going for hits. So...not quite the hacker you want to make him out to be. In fact, if you look at the entire league since 2016, in PA's that go to 3-2, the league records outs 54.5% of the time (27.7% in play outs, 26.7% k's). Sano records outs 54.6% of the time (16.3% in play outs, 38.3% k's). In other words, Sano is essentially no different than the league at creating outs in 3-2 counts.

John Bonnes ran the numbers on this. If you assume the Twins bring back everyone they have under team control, AND they keep payroll flat (far from a guarantee given the large losses incurred from low/no attendance last year and this year), they will have $35M to $40M. Between unproven/undebuted players the Twins control and free agents, the Twins need 3 starters (at minimum), and 4-5 relievers. If you're not comfortable with Polanco/Gordon/Lewis at short, you need a shortstop. If you're not comfortable with Sano/Rooker or whichever outfielder isn't starting as your DH, you need one of those too. That's 7-10 players, and while we can hope Ober, Balazovic, Winder, Duran, Cano, Miranda, and Lewis can fill some of that, to feel good about being a Top 3 team in the league, you'll have to sign 4-5 guys in free agency, minimum. That works out to $7M-$10M apiece, or in other words, the Twins can afford 4-5 J.A. Happs/Andrelton Simmons. I don't know about you, but that seems, shall we say, unlikely to achieve the desired result.

The Twins would be overjoyed to sign Rogers for 3/$20M. If that's truly what Rogers wants, he would be signed right now. That deal is essentially saying (assuming a $7.5M arb salary in 2022) that Rogers doesn't think he'll get a two year, $12.5M deal prior to the 2023 season. Since 2018, Rogers is 4th in WAR, 19th in ERA, 7th in FIP, 6th in xFIP, and 13th in k%-bb%, all while being 32nd highest in babip (meaning despite relatively bad batted ball luck, Rogers remains elite). I'm sure he won't get 3/$54M, but if we think Rogers will sign for less than 70% of the AAV of Andrelton Simmons, you're crazy. Barring injury or a performance decline this year/next year, Rogers is probably looking at 3/$30M at minimum. To get him to waive testing the open market, you probably have to go 3/$36M right now to get that done. Given this, and the Twins relatively low likelihood of competing for a championship next year (who cares if the Twins go 85-77 and get a hypothetical 8 seed, only to get swept by the 101 win Rays), does it make more sense to hope you can be back in contention in 2023 or 2024 (after which Rogers would be a free agent again, with the proposed 3 year deal), or see 2024 as your first year of potential contention, while targeting 2025 as the year to truly contend? If the latter, trading Rogers now is the only logical move.

I'll give you 10 good reasons the Twins might not compete for a playoff spot in 2022. Starting pitchers 3-5 and bullpen pitchers 2-8.

It's perfectly valid to call out Arraez in this situation. It's not that he's never allowed to strikeout--it's that he failed to protect the plate on a two strike count, and so let the umpire take the bat out of his hands. In that situation, if you aren't 100% sure a pitch will be a ball, you need to foul it off. Arraez' PA came across as a guy hoping not to make an out, rather than a guy hoping to get a hit. Championship players live for that opportunity, and the past few games, Arraez has been coming through in those situations. Because of that, I'm not calling Arraez unclutch or anything, but I am fairly surprised he was totally comfortable allowing the ump to decide his fate.