Cap'n Piranha

Here's a comparison between two players, both at AAA. Player 1 turned 22 before the season started, player 2 turned 23 halfway through the season. Player 1--49 games, 211 PA, .290/.384/.443/.827, 11.3% bb rate, 20.4% k rate. Player 2--80 games, 373 PA, .343/.397/.563/.960, 6.7% bb rate, 13.1% k rate. Player 1 is Celestino, and player 2 is Miranda. Obviously, Miranda's stats are better on the whole, but Celestino's production compares pretty well to Miranda when you take into account he's a bit younger (about 8 months), and in particular the walk rate is very nice for Celestino. If he can continue to make strides in AAA this year, Celestino will be nice Buxton insurance/a good 4th outfielder to keep Buxton and Kepler fresh, especially as a bottom third hitter turning the order over.

Obviously the Twins can't win by emulating Lloyd Christmas outside the hotel. But to start the season with a combination of Ryan/Ober/Dobnak/AAA guys/veteran retread is not acceptable UNLESS they know something we don't about those AAA guys (meaning at least 2 of Duran/Balazovic/Winder/Strotman/Canterino/SWR are ready to be rotation fixtures by May). I'm very skeptical of that, so I find myself quite frustrated right now. That said, if they sign Rodon, and then manage to swing a trade for MLB ready pitching, I'll be ok.

After this and Gausman, I'm pretty frustrated with the FO. I assumed it was going to take $25M/year to sign either of them (and was perfectly happy with that pricepoint), so the fact that both went for less... Falvine is really betting on that pitching pipeline working out.

Lot to unpack here. I used .2 because that is the approximate difference between AL starters FIP/xFIP and NL starters. The fact that there are more pitchers with low FIP/xFIP in the NL cannot just blindly be attributed to their presence in the NL--for example, Yu Darvish had his FIP and xFIP go UP when he went to the NL; Blake Snell's FIP went down, but his xFIP went WAY up. It is very rare for any team to go through it's order more than 5 times (teams averaged 37.4 PAs in 2021, which is barely 4), so the idea that pitchers are constantly hitting just is not real. Even if a starter hits twice, every NL team will absolutely use 2-3 bench players to hit for relievers, and with double switches, they might not even need to use that many. Kepler and Polanco were both signed through their Arb years, but also some FA years. By my estimation, absent the extension, Kepler would be a FA right now (next year at the latest), and the Twins have him through 2023 with an option for 24, so they bought out at least one FA year, and potentially 3. Polanco by my estimation would have been a FA next year, and he is also signed through 2023, with options in 24 AND 25, so again, 1-3 years of FA bought out. Sano would be a FA right now if not for the extension, so they only bought out one arb year, but either 1 or two FA years. The Twins could still sign a starter this offseason, and look at it as having a pitcher about as good as Berrios, for the same price as Berrios, but also have two premium prospects to boot. That would be a win, and something a smart team should always do. The CBA changing is a slightly more realistic scenario than Berrios dying in a plane crash. Just slightly. Chris Davis was worth that contract the Orioles gave him. If he wasn't, the Orioles wouldn't have offered it to him. No one is saying Berrios isn't good, or that the Twins shouldn't have kept him. I'd have been perfectly happy if this extension was announced on July 1, 2021. What people are saying is that this contract is a risk, because Berrios produces more like a number two starter, but can be considered a number one starter because he's been so durable. But if Berrios is not durable, which is not exactly an improbable possibility, then this contract, particularly the back end, is an issue. Toronto is gambling, and good on them for doing that, but it is a gamble.

Of course there's a lot of supposing here--none of us are embedded with the Toronto FO. That said, it seems logical that when an organization on the rise trades two high end prospects, they will be under pressure to show it was the right move. For example, if in 2019 the Twins had traded Royce Lewis and Jordan Balazovic for a starter, and said starter led the way to a 2019 title, would any of us bemoan the trade? On the flip side, if that acquired starter had pitched like a number 3, and the Twins had bombed out in the first round, wouldn't there be some questioning about if the Twins had made the right decision?

I also think it's worth noting that Toronto might have felt more pressure to sign Berrios after not making the playoffs as well. If Berrios goes out, leads the charge to a wild card, and then goes 6-0 across 7 starts in the postseason with a 1.40 ERA and 62 k's in 51 IP as the Jays win the WS, Toronto no longer has to justify the trade. But what if the Jays didn't make the playoffs in 2021, and they don't in 2022 either, and Berrios then leaves, with no QO attached as it was eliminated in the new CBA? All of the sudden, the decision to trade two top prospects for 0 playoff appearances starts to get called into question.

I imagine it is an extremely rare occurence to face a pitcher 3-4 times in a game--for that to happen, the opposing team's lineup has to be getting a ton of baserunners, or the opposing pitcher has to be pitching into the 8th or 9th inning. Certainly it's easier pitching in the NL, but even if you shave .2 off of Berrios' FIP and xFIP (the approximate difference between AL and NL starters in 2021), he is still 19th amongst qualified starters in the last 5 seasons on FIP, and 24th-ish on xFIP (he would pass some pitchers, other than all the pitchers he's passing spent at least some, if not most/all of their time in the AL in those years as well, and would therefore also need to be adjusted). The Donaldson contract was indeed a gamble. Why was it ok to sign Donaldson, but not Berrios? AT the time of Donaldson's signing the Twins were coming off a 103 win season, and wanted to win a WS in the next 2 years, and were willing to overpay a little in 2020/2021, and probably a lot in 2022/2023 in order to do that. At the time of Berrios' signing, the Twins are coming off an 89 loss season, and there's reasonable debate about if they can/should even compete for the playoffs in 2022 (for what it's worth, that question was being asked on this site in June/July BEFORE Berrios was traded). Seems like a relevant distinction, no? As for the Twins not caring about their players, your logic makes no sense. Players don't want to come to Minnesota in free agency because the Twins won't give them an extension? The Twins have extended Kepler, Polanco, Sano, and Dobnak, while making multiple offers to Buxton and Berrios (we can quibble about if those offers were "serious", but if the Twins truly didn't care, why would they make offers in the first place?). Cruz, Pineda, Romo, Castro, Gonzalez, and Donaldson were all perfectly happy to sign here, in some cases, multiple times.

If the Twins truly are not willing to pay Buxton $14M a year REGARDLESS of performance (miss 140 games, put up 1 WAR? Fourteen Million. Play 150 games, put up 8 WAR, win MVP? Fourteen Million)...then I just don't know what to say.

I'd take him too--my only point was that Berrios' value is built on his availability, not max ability.

Yes it would. Your point? I've always said durability is an asset. but assuming that because someone has been durable they will continue to be durable is a gamble--the Blue Jays are cleraly content to take that gamble. Johan Santana pitched 960 innings in his age 23-27 season, Berrios has pitched 850--both were extremely durable. But Santana only had one more great season left, 3 more very good, one ok, and then was out of baseball. Is it crazy to say that could also be Berrios' post-age 27 season path? fWAR does use FIP, but a modified version (see below). In essence, pitchers get credit for IF FB as K's in the WAR calculation, and the FIP constant is also changed. I used both FIP- and xFIP- as two metrics that are not reliant on innings pitched, and therefore strip quantity from quality. The point I'm making is that Berrios is the Bizarro Buxton--he's a good pitcher who posts great WAR because he doesn't get hurt (whereas Buxton is a great player who posts good WAR because he's constantly hurt). Therefore, if Berrios ceases being able to make 30+ starts a year, his value is dramatically impacted, as he's not a great pitcher, but rather a very good one. That said, there are worse things in baseball to spend $20M on than a very good pitcher.

My point is his value is based largely on durability, not top-level performance. The outcomes he has produced are somewhere between very good 2nd starter, and lower tier 2nd starter, borderline 3rd starter. If the price to secure that in FA is $20M/year, that is not something the Twins are currently capable of doing. As such, what makes sense is a pivot to offering young pitchers extensions much sooner (for example, assuming Ober and Ryan repeat/improve on their 2021 performance, giving them both an extension for 6-7 years and $50M-$60M).

Berrios is indeed 4th in the league in fWAR over the past 5 years--if the league in question is the AL. Expand it to MLB, and he drops to 14th. Berrios' durability also potentially works against him here--as fWAR is a counting stat, staying healthy can skew this number (much like RBI numbers can be skewed by batting cleanup for 150 games). Indeed, if you look at FIP- for the last 5 years, Berrios drops to 33rd in the league; by xFIP- it's 51st (not for nothing, his mark of 93 is identical to Joey Lucchesi, Micahel Pineda, and Kyle Gibson). Now durability is obviously an asset--you can argue it is better to have a starter who makes 30 starts with a 3 ERA than a starter who makes 10 starts with a 2 ERA. Jose Berrios is indeed durable--until he's not. Perhaps Berrios pitches 10 more years without a single major injury. Perhaps Berrios blows his arm out in his very first start of 2022. The Blue Jays are gambling $20M+ a year that a clear 2nd starter by quality can become a 1st starter through quantity. I'm not saying Berrios won't, but this is a gamble on Toronto's side.

I would be completely fine with trading Buxton, so long as the package is right. In my mind, that only happens if it's part of a bigger deal, with my pipe dream being the below; Padres get--Buxton, Rogers, Garver, Ober, and Barnes Twins get--Abrams, Hassell, Gore, and take back Wil Myer's salary The Padres manage to add some star power to their lineup and bullpen, without increasing their payroll (or if they do, barely), and add two backend options to their rotation, which is what let them down this year. The Twins add two premium position player prospects, which will allow them to turn around and use Lewis, Martin, Miranda, Arraez, Larnach et al for trade bait for pitching to further buttress a system which could be the best in baseball next year. While this would absolutely mean the Twins are punting on 2022, a lineup in 2023 with some combo of Abrams, Polanco, Martin, Miranda, Kiriloff, Jeffers, Arraez, Larnach, Celestino is intirguing, and would be cheap enough to allow the Twins to invest heavily in starting pitching on the FA market.

We need to move beyond the idea that there will be set starters at every position. Polanco at 2B, Buxton (if not traded) in CF, and a FA at SS should be the only starters that play at the same spot every time they play. The Twins should bring 13 players north next year, and most of them should play multiple positions, and allow Rocco to create lineups based on matchups. Here's the 13 players I would choose; Garver Jeffers Kiriloff Sano Polanco Arraez FA SS Donaldson Miranda Larnach Buxton Kepler Celestino Your DH will differ on a daily basis, dependent on matchups and health, and I also wouldn't be opposed to trading either Jeffers or Garver, and getting a better left-handed catcher than Rortvedt. The other option is to trade Sano, and turn Garver into a 1B/DH who can catch a handful of times a year, and make Rortvedt your second catcher. Lewis and Martin can be trade bait for starting pitching, or can take the place of Arraez/Donaldson/Kepler when they're ready. Every team will have around 6k PAs in a year, so with 13 guys, you can average about 450 PAs per player.

Celestino was bad this year. He was also a 22 year old with 24 total games above High A being told to play center field in the majors. Look at what he's done in AAA since he's been there (where he should be at this point in his career)--.909 OPS, 144 wRC+. For what it's worth, that's not too far off of Jose Miranda, who is the no-doubt MiLB player of the year for the Twins. Larnach, despite all his struggles, still put up an 89 wRC+ in the bigs as a 24 year old who hadn't played ball in 18 months. His wRC+ has been above 139 at every stop in the minors before this year, which is better than Nelson Cruz' career wRC+. His slump is concerning, but to write off either of these guys, much less both, as career bad 4th outfielders before they turn 25, and after a combined 360 MLB PAs is just ridiculous.

Cave wishes.

I think he is healthy now (after he missed two months), but he is also not getting consistent playing time (66 PA's since his return on July 25 in 45 games). It's hard to get a rhythm when you're essentially a pinch hitter, or you only play once every 3 days. Before this is construed as a defense of Cave, I agree that he should not be on this team next year. Kiriloff, Larnach, and Celestino should all be ahead of him in the pecking order, to say nothing of Buxton, Arraez moonlighting in left, or Lewis (if he has to get moved to the outfield). My initial post simply was musing about a potential reason that an above average player in 2018/2019 would all of the sudden become a useless one.

Cave has done himself no favors this year by trying to play hurt (if indeed that has been the issue--given the vast difference between his stats in 2019/2020 and this year, I am inclined to believe that). When healthy, I think Jake Cave is a very good 4th outfielder. That said, I don't think 4th outfielders are something a team should have to resort to trades in order to acquire, and they certainly shouldn't give up pitching prospects to do it.

I never said anyone else said 10 years. I said 10 years because I'm trying to make the point that we shouldn't just assume Joe Ryan can be etched in stone into the rotation for the foreseeable future, based on his first 2 starts. Nothing more, nothing less.

Not skeptical at all that he can pitch--as I pointed out, I would have put him above SWR in Twins prospect rankings, i.e. a Top 5 prospect. I'm skeptical that a guy with two career starts (one of which was mediocre) and a massively unsustainable babip is going to pitch in the majors for the next 10 years. If you're not skeptical of the certainty of Joe Ryan's 10 year career in the bigs right now, then you're drinking some real strong kool-aid. I hope Ryan builds on this. I hope he is a cornerstone of the Twins rotation for the next decade. Even bound that, I would love it if someday his number was retired. But if Joe Ryan continues to induce little soft contact (he's at 6%, the league is 16%) and lots of hard contact (he's at 41%, the league is at 32%), he will be out of the league in the next 2-4 years. I believe he can improve on that, which is why I am optimistic about him in the rotation next year. That said, assuming he pitches every 5 days, his next 3 starts will be @NYY, @TOR, TOR. If he's still performing after those 3, I'll be MUCH less skeptical.

The fact there is little to go on is exactly why we should be skeptical. On a completely different subject, I have this really awesome stock tip. The company was just founded last year, and grew 1,000% this year! If you send me some money, I'll invest it for you--I know that's only a little to go on, but that obviously means there's no good reason to be skeptical!

The skepticism comes from his .100 babip despite only inducing 6% soft contact, but giving up 41% hard contact; it is impossible for those 3 numbers to coexist for any sustained period. The number most likely to change out of those, by far, is the babip, and when it does, he won't be throwing 7 inning one-hitters. This doesn't mean Ryan's about to turn into Happ or anything, but it also means he's not mutant deGrom either. I like Joe Ryan, and I'm very optimistic about him--I thought he should have been ranked higher on the Twins prospect list than SWR--but we shouldn't assume that he's ready to be a 10 year starter in the bigs based off of two starts, one of which was mediocre.

Precisely. The Twins had just won 103 games, but had started Randy Dobnak in a playoff game--they needed frontline starting pitching, but couldn't get it in FA. They went out to get a guy to improve their rotation, and he did just that. If the offense doesn't fall completely asleep at the wheel against Houston, who knows what might have happened?

This is correct. Any time you can get 3 years of control on a #2/#3 starter for 6 years of a reliever, you do it.

$183M for 16 WAR is $11.4M/WAR. In a market where the going rate is $8M-$10M/WAR, that's not great, but it's also not bad. Throw Cruz back in, with his $34ish million and 7.5ish WAR, and now they're at $207M for 23.5 WAR, or $8.8M/WAR. If anything, this shows why spending big in FA should be viewed as a last resort.